System Integrity?

[do5000]

if we are playing the top two daily fav's and waiting for a loss, are we starting right away? or skipping the first 2 weeks?
i'm assuming that no matter what, we'll end this on Sept 1.

[jolmscheid]

Yeah we will start right away and then end on Sep. 1st...

[allenc85]

I figured for the first two weeks I'd wait for two losses, just to be safe. I know it'll only equate to 1-3 plays, but I figured better safe than sorry.

[do5000]

I figured for the first two weeks I'd wait for two losses, just to be safe. I know it'll only equate to 1-3 plays, but I figured better safe than sorry.

i think i'll be doing this as well. i'll start tracking monday and then begin to play after only one loss on apr 19.

[IWinMyBets]

re: post 1711. Attempted to include quote.
Thanks Rev,
I do see where 3 game chase is not where we should be looking right now, after evaluating it further. I am really interested to here from some of those who experienced this system last year, and where they plan to go with it now after a year of practice. With all of the excellent suggestions I have seen to date, There should be a basic set of standards we can now follow.

Looks like many are just looking for that guidence of a set of rules all lined up.

Again thanks to all.

[JW Cash]

Just as a quick followup to my last post. It is appearant that going with the 4 to 6 game "Chase" still looks better than trying to go with the 3. Although it appears that you may save by going with 3, you would sustain several more losses and indeed would end up with a losing season on the 3 game chase. Just start out with a slightly lower beginning unit size and plan for the 4 to 6 game chase.

OK..you go with the 3 game chase at -1.5 runline...

You have a very high percentage of wins at Bet A and Bet B...

With you have a Bet C loss......simply divide the loss into the subsequent
series coming up.....

With the high percentage of A and B wins.....recovery time for series
losses will be short.........

.........Divide and Conquer........

[Patrick Adams]

What do u mean by waiting for a loss

[jolmscheid]

JW...when you say to divide it into the next series coming up, do you divide the loss into only the A and B games or the C game as well?

[floridagolfer]

Here's what I do.

I'm going into the season estimating we're going to have 90 series from my starting point (two weeks into the season) to my end point (two weeks from the end of the regular season). If I have a losing series, I spread the total amount of my loss into the number of remaining series and increase my per-series stake accordingly. d

This way, any loss isn't subtracted from your winnings. You make that up with the remaining series that follow.

[jolmscheid]

That sounds good too!

[IWinMyBets]

I gotta go back in and reconfigure. My quote feature just quit this morning for some reason.
Below is a quote post 1723.

"OK..you go with the 3 game chase at -1.5 runline...

You have a very high percentage of wins at Bet A and Bet B...

With you have a Bet C loss......simply divide the loss into the subsequent
series coming up.....

With the high percentage of A and B wins.....recovery time for series
losses will be short........."



And JW Cash...I did look into that as well. I haven't completely gone with the figures and how many times we would need to increase the bets after a series loss, but to simplify the system, I'll be willing to wager that the bet size numbers will nearly equal out between the 3 game chase and the 4 game chase and the 6 game chase when all is said and done. That is considering you will automatically increase your "A" bet wager size right after a series loss.

I'm not saying your way is wrong, It simply takes another path that leads further from the original concept.

[IWinMyBets]

That sounds like a plan to me as well FloridaGolfer. I do like that a bunch.

[JW Cash]

I gotta go back in and reconfigure. My quote feature just quit this morning for some reason.
Below is a quote post 1723.

"OK..you go with the 3 game chase at -1.5 runline...

You have a very high percentage of wins at Bet A and Bet B...

With you have a Bet C loss......simply divide the loss into the subsequent
series coming up.....

With the high percentage of A and B wins.....recovery time for series
losses will be short........."



And JW Cash...I did look into that as well. I haven't completely gone with the figures and how many times we would need to increase the bets after a series loss, but to simplify the system, I'll be willing to wager that the bet size numbers will nearly equal out between the 3 game chase and the 4 game chase and the 6 game chase when all is said and done. That is considering you will automatically increase your "A" bet wager size right after a series loss.

I'm not saying your way is wrong, It simply takes another path that leads further from the original concept.

Yes..the main concept is to make profit with the least risk associated with it..


and for anyone who is insistent on doing a 6 game chase...

well....that could easily be set up as TWO 3 game chases with 50% LESS RISK!

Yeah....thats what I'm talking about ,,,

[JW Cash]

Here's what I do.

I'm going into the season estimating we're going to have 90 series from my starting point (two weeks into the season) to my end point (two weeks from the end of the regular season). If I have a losing series, I spread the total amount of my loss into the number of remaining series and increase my per-series stake accordingly. d

This way, any loss isn't subtracted from your winnings. You make that up with the remaining series that follow.

..Exactly Florida....

thats what I do....

Doing a 3 game chase CORRECTLY....means you never LOSE...

[reverend]

interesting idea...

[goldseeker]

cool stuff,let's cash

[IWinMyBets]

Deep down inside, I've been a bit nervous about going out 6 games all along. "JW Cash" seems to bring some very good points to the table. Although the orginal system seems relatively sound, we've all been looking for a way to tweak the system to suit everyones needs. More income potential at the lowest risk.

Due to the unstable nature of the first couple of weeks of the MLB season with those in charge of setting the lines along with teams getting their sea-legs under them, it still would be a sound idea to wait for a loss or simply wait a week or two to get started.

We all know what that last month before playoffs can do with teams playing their tripple "A" players and resting the big guns for the playoffs. So a good stopping point seems to be the middle of Sept.

So since I'm somewhat new at actually running the math on systems of this nature, can we get a good breakdown of how would we bet following a 3 game series loss?

Series 1.
A bet 1 unit..........LOSS
B bet 3 units.........LOSS
C bet 6 units........LOSS

Next series after loss count remaining number of series in the season remaining, and divide the losses by number of series' remaining. If approx. 60 series remaining, divide the loss by 60 and bet the remainder of the seasons series' adjusted up by the amount of this figure?
Is that correct.

Such as:

A bet 1.1 unit
B bet 3.3 units
C bet 6.6 units

Then bet this way to the end or until we encounter another loss...where we then adjust up again.

If I'm way off, please let me know.

[mizzoujohn]

Further breakdown of the above data:

With the system that skips the first and last 2 weeks of the season: 82-0

Series ended in:
Game 1: 46
Game 2: 22
Game 3: 10
Game 4: 3
Game 5: 0
Game 6: 1

Here is a question... when you push, which I imagine happens often on the -1rl, do you continue the series or end the series? and how does that factor into your numbers here?

[Bluemonk]

If you push and are in the middle of a chase you continue to chase until you make the money lost on the current series back plus one unit. If you just started a new bet and pushed there is no need to chase anything since you haven't lost any money on the new series.

[mike1234]

Does anyone have a chart or a calculation on how to estimate runlines if given the total and moneyline? I have a database of MLB moneylines and totals and would like to add runlines in order to backtest ideas like this.

I apologize if this was already brought up - but I can't find anything.

[SimonSayz]

I like the system...I tried it in the NBA and worked well. Will each day's plays be posted here?

[DMB40]

So Im trying to read through all of this but just so I know im on the same page.

You taking the highest fav of the day (-1.5) and then if it loses your chasing it with the highest fav the next day?

Is that correct?

[mizzoujohn]

i wonder what the best book to get -1rl is?
John

[reverend]

i wonder what the best book to get -1rl is?
John

i would venture to say 5dimes

[IWinMyBets]

So Im trying to read through all of this but just so I know im on the same page.

You taking the highest fav of the day (-1.5) and then if it loses your chasing it with the highest fav the next day?

Is that correct?

Yes, it could be a new team each day.

There are some who are taking the high fav of the morning line and playing the -1 run line, and some who are playing the -1.5 run line. I've gone over and over and over this thread, and there was never a majority concensus.
There are also some playing the series as a 6 game chase, and some only going out 4 games.

The system can work going out 3 games as well, however to offset additional series losses going out 3 games, it would be a requirement to average out losses over the remainder of the season and adjust future series wager size to recover any losses.

The potential there is there may be several increases necessary throughout the year that are designed to earn back the 3 game chase series losses. I'm sure if my statements aren't entirely correct, one of the others on this thread will help out.

Good Luck

[DMB40]

Yes, it could be a new team each day.

There are some who are taking the high fav of the morning line and playing the -1 run line, and some who are playing the -1.5 run line. I've gone over and over and over this thread, and there was never a majority concensus.
There are also some playing the series as a 6 game chase, and some only going out 4 games.

The system can work going out 3 games as well, however to offset additional series losses going out 3 games, it would be a requirement to average out losses over the remainder of the season and adjust future series wager size to recover any losses.

The potential there is there may be several increases necessary throughout the year that are designed to earn back the 3 game chase series losses. I'm sure if my statements aren't entirely correct, one of the others on this thread will help out.

Good Luck

If to win $100 is your 1 unit size
lets say you win 1 unit on monday your betting to win one unit on tuesday right.

These is no rasing your bets as your winning?

[Jhart2838]

think ima go with a combination of ... -1RL 4 game chase, and if I lose, spread the losses accordingly to another 4 game chase?

[johnolerud9]

system information

can someone please update what the system is and what the play is for April 5, 2010

[reverend]

If to win $100 is your 1 unit size
lets say you win 1 unit on monday your betting to win one unit on tuesday right.

These is no rasing your bets as your winning?

that is correct.

i will be looking at a more progressive money mgt betting system, but for april at least, it will all be to win 1 unit

[reverend]

can someone please update what the system is and what the play is for April 5, 2010

Most came to a consensus that this system is not played during the first 2 and last 2 weeks of the season.

that being said, the phils would be the play tomorrow as they opened up the largest favs.

i am taking them as part of another system, so i will be on them anyway.

good luck

[JW Cash]

If to win $100 is your 1 unit size
lets say you win 1 unit on monday your betting to win one unit on tuesday right.

These is no rasing your bets as your winning?

If you believe that life is short and you need to go for the gusto NOW ...

If you believe that its " Now or Never "

If you believe that its " if Not NOW....Then WHEN? "


Then, I offer the following......its what I do....

Wager 5% of whatever your bank is on any given day.....

i.e.

Your bank is $1000.....

..and you win $50 on Philadelphia today........... bank is now $1050

..on Tuesday....you wager 5% ( $52.50 ) on the pick for that day....

...and the bank keeps compounding......

..obviously you need more winners than losers......


But if you divide the losers into future winners........

Hell....your life will change.......

[IWinMyBets]

For those who plan to get an early start instead of waiting the recommended 2 weeks, the Philly's are at -200 for tomorrows game vs. Washington Nats. I haven't seen a Run Line posted as yet, but they would be the play on -1RL or -1.5RL. As your "A" series play. If they win, your series is complete, and you start a new series on Tuesday.
If you choose to slightly increase your first game unit bets during the season, that would be entirely up to you.

Now if Philly does not cover either the -1RL or the 1-1.5RL whichever you have chosen as your preferred method of this particular system, then you will want to increase your "B" bet amount or second game of your series in order to cover losses from game "A" and make a profit with the 'B' bet win.

This can be carried out to 3 games....4 games...or 6 games. The numbers come out very close using all methods, however there may be more losses during the season using the 3 game method.

Whichever method you decide to choose, IMHO it is imperative there is sound money management maintained during the season.

A very sound suggestion was following any series loss...you would want to look at the amount lost, and determine the estimated number of complete series' remaining in the season and average out that loss over the remaining series plays.

This would mean your base unit starting amount would slightly increase over the remaining plays throught the year.

I might make a suggestion, although it can be very difficult to adhere to at times. Never risk more than 1/4 of your betting bankroll on any one series. If you lose a series, you'll understand what I mean.

I personally have had to refund my betting account a few times, by not sticking to this rule.

Another item to mention, is if your sportbook asks if you prefer "Action" or "Listed Pitchers" you will choose "Listed Pitchers"
If there is a pitching change before gametime, our -200 favorite for the day may move to becomming an underdog. If the "listed pitchers" do not start the game, the sportsbook will refund your wager.

GOOD LUCK to all.

[reverend]

very well said

[mizzoujohn]

I just did a little math... for instance taking tomorrow's Dbacks/Padres game (Dbacks biggest home fav), the lines are:

-1.5 rl: +115
ML: -190

by my calculations the wager amount, using the -1rl calculator, would go:

13 to win 10
32 to win 23
74 to win 55
178 to win 132

so a 4 game series loss, assuming the biggest fav each day is around those odds (probably close), would lose 28 units. Whoa! The system went 81-1 through the first 4 games in 2009, but sheesh, 28 units! So you would be at:
no series losses: +82U
1 loss: +54U (what we would have been at last year)
2 losses (very possible): +26 units
3 losses (also possible I imagine): -2 units




If you just did the 3 game chase, you would lose 12 units per series loss. It went 78-4 on the 3 game chase in 2009...

0 losses: +82U
1 loss: +70U
2 losses: +58U
3 losses: +46U
4 losses: +34U (what it hit last year)
5 losses: +22U
6 losses: +10U
7 losses+ -2U


only playing a 2 game chase, is 68-14. each series loss is a loss of 4.5U. +5units on the season (not viable).

Can anyone backtest for 2008, or 2007 on 3 and 4 game chases with this data (reverend?)? I believe a 6 game chase, the money wagered would get astronomical. Not sure I'd recommend it.
Am I doing something wrong or should the juice be this high? Would -1.5 be more profitable since the juice is in our favor, and perhaps that would more than offset more series losses? Anyone know how the game by game data works for -1.5 for last year, similar to this but for -1.5?:
Originally Posted by reverend
Further breakdown of the above data:

With the system that skips the first and last 2 weeks of the season: 82-0

Series ended in:
Game 1: 46
Game 2: 22
Game 3: 10
Game 4: 3
Game 5: 0
Game 6: 1
John

[mizzoujohn]

basically what my post says is that doing -1RL is having to lay juice. Is it more profitable to do -1RL or -1.5 RL (getting nicer odds) over the last few years? We need to figure that out. If the results are similar I'd rather do -1 to have to risk less.
John