System Integrity?

[reverend]

The primary reason I lean to playing this system as a 4 game chase on the -1 RL is because of the results of the past 2 years.

-1 RL System:
2007: +400
2008: +5000
2009: +4800

-1.5 RL System:
2007: +3500
2008: +2800
2009: +5600

I would prefer to have less individual losses during the season, so the -1 RL system allows me to "push" all of the 1 run wins by the favorite.

I am still torn on how to play this though. I am interested to hear more from yall...

[stingyrivers]

looks about a correct summation to me, I been looking back and it seems that the -1 RL 4 game chase approach is a decent balance between safest and profitable... it seems very solid to me, like you said from year to year with it you never know because one loss completely takes a huge year into a small loss on the season

[stingyrivers]

my one question is this.... these blanket results are very decent results... do you think there could be one significant subjective filter we could add that would improve the numbers to even better, and maybe even a decent chance at a perfect season record wise? I am not sure what that one filter would be, and depending on what it could be, it may be impossible to backtest

[stingyrivers]

one possible fiter that jumps to mind is the over-under.... you need runs to cover the -1.5 so I wonder if the results were filtered excluding any plays that had an o/u that was less than 9 or something around there, if it would improve the results... some filter that has a correlation to what you need to happen would be best... higher over under, more likelihood of runs, better chance of RL covering

[reverend]

you know stingy...i have been thinking that same thing.

one idea i had, but have not backtested because it would be difficult, would be to look at the opening ML and only bet on that team if the ML goes in their favor. Because you gotta think that over the course of the past 3 seasons, you know that at some point, the largest favorite was established the night before, and then the next day, there was a lineup change, or a pitching change, or some other factor that could cause the ML to drop. I may try and go back and look at this for 2009, just to see how it affects the results. You would have less bets, but like you said, if we could filter out the losses, we would be golden.

Another thought I had was to look at all games that are above a certain ML, say -200, and play the team where the line went in the favorites favor by the largest margin. This is similar to the above, but it takes into account the other favored matchups.

The one thing I did notice while backtesting this was the difference in opening lines from book to book. For example, one day 5Dimes may have opened the Yankees at -300 and Boston at -290 where TheGreek opened the Yankees at -285 and Boston at -290.

By looking at the change in the opening ML to the closing or gametime ML, you would be screening out the variance in the books, and letting the market tell you who the favorite is that day.

Thoughts?

[reverend]

...

[reverend]

one possible fiter that jumps to mind is the over-under.... you need runs to cover the -1.5 so I wonder if the results were filtered excluding any plays that had an o/u that was less than 9 or something around there, if it would improve the results... some filter that has a correlation to what you need to happen would be best... higher over under, more likelihood of runs, better chance of RL covering

This is a good thought.

[reverend]

so i have another thought...

i am pretty sure that 5dimes offers a -2 RL. my thought is that by betting a line like this, you will be getting heavy +juice. i went back and this was what i found:

2007: 16 of the 80 wins were by 2 runs, 64 were by 3+ runs
2008: 12 of the 88 wins were by 2 runs, 76 were by 3+ runs
2009: 16 of the 86 wins were by 2 runs, 70 were by 3+ runs

I have no way to backtest this, not knowing the juice on a -2 or -2.5 RL, but in theory, you would be able to extend the streak to maybe 6 or 7 games because of the +juice you would be getting.

thoughts?

[stingyrivers]

I think you would definitely see some variance in the results using the line movement angle... it would be very difficult to not only match up opening line to closing lines, but to do it day by day backtesting a season would take a long time... It would definitely have to be a filter that has a number value to it, like the line or over-under, I have a feeling the set total would affect this a lot, and seeing as there arent many loses it makes it easy to filter... all you have to do is look at the losing series' and determine a common thread in them and see if one filter would eliminate that common thread as plays....

One good one that might eliminate all losses but would be almost impossible to backtest would be making a condition that the fav had to have their one or two guy on the hill... a lot of times you get the biggest ML on the day just because the underdog sucks so bad, but in reality, the pitching matchup against them is not extremely overwhelming

[IWinMyBets]

In Units played on a 4 game series chase, could we hash out better on how the money management should be handled?
Does it hold true that as each new day progresses after a loss, our odds increase or do they remain exactly the same to achieve a win?
Assuming at -1RL we should get about even money. And at -1.5RL nearly always + money.
Was thinking about day one... 1 unit. Day two... 2.5 units. Day three...5 units and day four 10 units.
I kinda like the idea of increasing the potential win amount as the series progresses. Assuming 1 unit equals say $10, I would like to know that if I'm risking $100 on bet number 4 that I would come out with more than a $10 profit. Therefore, I was wandering if it is better to increase the profit potential with each additional series bet after a loss? Rather than going after the simple "Chase" of that first bet.

My personal opinion:

I like 4 game chase
I personally like the -1.5RL after looking over all of the backtesting results.
I like starting 2 weeks into the season and stopping in September.
I like passing on days where there is a limited schedule and there are only 4 games for that day?
I oppose a O/U filter. A score of 2-0 or 4-1 should win many of our plays. It would make for some fun, but not sure it would help the cause if we watched our O/U hedge keep chopping into the profits of a RunLine win.

There are tons of rainouts early in the season. What about rainouts? How do we handle them?

And as mentioned earlier, What about pitching changes?

If there is more than one ML favorite with matching Morning line odds, how do we determine which team to play that day?

I totally respect everyones input. Again Thanks to all.

[reverend]

In Units played on a 4 game series chase, could we hash out better on how the money management should be handled?
Does it hold true that as each new day progresses after a loss, our odds increase or do they remain exactly the same to achieve a win?
Assuming at -1RL we should get about even money. And at -1.5RL nearly always + money.
Was thinking about day one... 1 unit. Day two... 2.5 units. Day three...5 units and day four 10 units.
I kinda like the idea of increasing the potential win amount as the series progresses. Assuming 1 unit equals say $10, I would like to know that if I'm risking $100 on bet number 4 that I would come out with more than a $10 profit. Therefore, I was wandering if it is better to increase the profit potential with each additional series bet after a loss? Rather than going after the simple "Chase" of that first bet.

My personal opinion:

I like 4 game chase
I personally like the -1.5RL after looking over all of the backtesting results.
I like starting 2 weeks into the season and stopping in September.
I like passing on days where there is a limited schedule and there are only 4 games for that day?
I oppose a O/U filter. A score of 2-0 or 4-1 should win many of our plays. It would make for some fun, but not sure it would help the cause if we watched our O/U hedge keep chopping into the profits of a RunLine win.

There are tons of rainouts early in the season. What about rainouts? How do we handle them?

If there is more than one ML favorite with matching Morning line odds, how do we determine which team to play that day?

I totally respect everyones input. Again Thanks to all.

i think the average juice for the -1RL will be around -150 where the -1.5RL is around even money. this is not always the case, but should be pretty close.

[stingyrivers]

good points winbets and great research btw rev...

I wasnt saying put a hedge on the o/u... I was saying look for a correlation between the set game total, and the wins and losses in the chases, and if a lower o/u is a common theme in the losses, if so, a play with a low over under total would be skipped....

I think the odds objectively remain the same... to think something is due so that warrants a higher bet is not good... however, to raise your bet to get more value in the profit for wins is a decent move, and really up to you, because that directly relates to how deep you can go as far as bankroll personally....

rev, I was wondering if you knew off hand, in all those seasons what the longest possible chase was... was it 6?

[reverend]

stingy...

i went back and ran the numbers on the past 3 seasons if you waited for 2 losses in a row before betting and then played it as a 4 game chase. if this were the case, you would have been undefeated over the past 3 seasons at 44-0.

2007: 15-0
2008: 12-0
2009: 17-0

Although this is not many plays for a 162 game season, you are undefeated, which would allow you to alter your money management and possibly increase your unit size.

The longest string of losses over the past 3 seasons on the ML was:
2009: 5 game losing streak
2008: 3 game losing streak
2007: 5 game losing streak

So it is true, if you had the bankroll to chase 6 games on the ML, you would be undefeated over the past 3 season, but i think that is almost impossible unless you are betting to win a very low amount. As an example, if you were betting to win $100 and you assumed the average juice on your 6 game chase was -200 (which actually is a little conservative), on the 6th game you would be risking $48,600 to win $24,300. So if you did lose that game 6, your loss would be $81,800! and that is betting to win $100 per series! thats laughable.

[reverend]

For some perspective on the above idea, I am figuring the average juice on the -1 RL will be around -150. If that is the case, your 4 game chase looks like this as a $100/unit bettor:

Game 1: Bet 150 to win 100
Game 2: Bet 380 to win 250
Game 3: Bet 940 to win 630
Game 4: Bet 2350 to win 1570

So if you happen to lose a 4 game chase, you will have lost around $3800 on the series loss.

so yes, waiting for 2 losses would have ensured your a perfect record over the past 3 seasons, but if you happened to sustain a loss this season, you would be in the negative. Assuming around 15 wins a year, you would be +1500 on your wins, but -3800 on that one loss.

I do like the looks of this system, because you are basically betting that the favorite of the day will not lose 6 straight times. I like my odds there, but just know, that if you do hit a loss, you are going to be down for the year on this system.

[stingyrivers]

lol... I agree... I think for most, ML chase is out of the question.... I kind of like the numbers you posted though on waiting for two losses on the RL... that is doable... the trick is you would only get about a play every week and a half, but... if you treated it as a MLB special play, given you havent had to chase long in the past... as well as doing the other system... you could probably increase the unit for these plays, but then again, that would make even the short chase expensive and you would probably have to raise the unit a lot to make it worth it given only the handful of wins on the year... here is an interesting side note... given that we are doing the home sweep system... I would bet that often times, the two plays overlap... in other words one of the plays from the other system would often be the biggest fav on the card for the day

[DeHoyos]

What if you had a play with 4 overlapping systems lmfao??????

[stingyrivers]

interesting man... 4 losses is too many in a chase system, thats the trick of them, 1 loss max is needed.... if you are interested in that... start breaking the results down by every possible factor... home, away... day, night.... stuff like that, you might find an undefeated trend in there... but in general a blanket betting system on the NYY hurts because they are one of those teams where the books jack the lines inflated just because they know the public is universally on them.... NYY, Lakers, Patriots, Duke etc...

[DeHoyos]

yeah your right about that....

so do u think doing a blanket betting system on the top home teams is a good idea????

[Bluehorseshoe]

The primary reason I lean to playing this system as a 4 game chase on the -1 RL is because of the results of the past 2 years. -1 RL System: 2007: +400 2008: +5000 2009: +4800 -1.5 RL System: 2007: +3500 2008: +2800 2009: +5600 I would prefer to have less individual losses during the season, so the -1 RL system allows me to "push" all of the 1 run wins by the favorite. I am still torn on how to play this though. I am interested to hear more from yall...

And the record if you "Flat Bet" each day instead of a chase??

[do5000]

And the record if you "Flat Bet" each day instead of a chase??

very good question.
maybe combine the two ideas and only flat bet but with a -2 RL.

[do5000]

last year there were 2 main problems i dont think we ever solved 100%.

#1 where exactly are we using lines from?
#2 how do we break a tie for biggest opening fav?
some suggested the higher o/u others suggested using the RL difference.

[killawookie]

So you know how much you would lose if you stopped the chase at 4 consecutive loses right? what would your season profit be if you stopped chasing at 3 consecutive loses so that the juice does start to kill you and your bankroll isnt in jeopardy...

[jolmscheid]

Yes I agree with everyone that we need to come to a conclusion...

Are we going to do the -1 RL or -1.5 RL
Are we going to do a 3 game chase? 4 game chase?

[parlay100]

What about figuring out a ratio to bet both the ML and -1.5 to soften the blow of a loss. If the team does not cover 2 runs you push and increase for the next. Your are also not paying the high juice of the ML. Still protecting your bankroll. Just spitballing.

[floridagolfer]

last year there were 2 main problems i dont think we ever solved 100%.

#1 where exactly are we using lines from?
#2 how do we break a tie for biggest opening fav?
some suggested the higher o/u others suggested using the RL difference.

Also keep in mind that the lines are set the day BEFORE, and there are going to be instances (I know we ran into this one time last year) where a very good pitcher (Halladay, Sabbathia, etc.) is listed as a starter at odds of -250 or -300, then he's scratched the morning of the game and the team is not even close to being the day's biggest fav. You've got to able to adjust on the fly.

[reverend]

last year there were 2 main problems i dont think we ever solved 100%.

#1 where exactly are we using lines from?
#2 how do we break a tie for biggest opening fav?
some suggested the higher o/u others suggested using the RL difference.

You raise 2 issues that we should talk about and start discussing.

Here are my thoughts:

1) as far as what opening line to use, i believe that CRIS/Bookmaker are the first ones to publish lines, followed by TheGreek. (correct me if I'm wrong) I also know 5Dimes has 5cent overnight MLB lines. but if we are looking for the true opener, i think we should use the book that is the first to publish them, which would be cris/bookmaker.

2) about dealing with games that have the same opening line, i have no clue on where to go from there. i do know that over the past 3 seasons of data, you rarely lost both games, and this situation never made you lose a 4 game chase. most times you split the 2 games and about 25% of the time you won both. so some options would be:
-go with your gut and the matchup you like the best
-you see what way the lines have moved since the opener
-you split your bet between the 2 games. so if you were on a b bet, risking 400 to win 250, you could just risk 200 on each game. if you lose both (rare), it would be like moving to the c bet, if you win both-you would have won the series, and if you split (most common)-you would just treat the next bet like a slightly more expensive b bet. but again, this never caused you to lose a series.

[mizzoujohn]

REverend, what about playing a 3 game instead of 4 game? Any data on that?

thanks, by the way, for the data you have already compiled. Very helpful!

[do5000]

You raise 2 issues that we should talk about and start discussing.

Here are my thoughts:

1) as far as what opening line to use, i believe that CRIS/Bookmaker are the first ones to publish lines, followed by TheGreek. (correct me if I'm wrong) I also know 5Dimes has 5cent overnight MLB lines. but if we are looking for the true opener, i think we should use the book that is the first to publish them, which would be cris/bookmaker.

2) about dealing with games that have the same opening line, i have no clue on where to go from there. i do know that over the past 3 seasons of data, you rarely lost both games, and this situation never made you lose a 4 game chase. most times you split the 2 games and about 25% of the time you won both. so some options would be:
-go with your gut and the matchup you like the best
-you see what way the lines have moved since the opener
-you split your bet between the 2 games. so if you were on a b bet, risking 400 to win 250, you could just risk 200 on each game. if you lose both (rare), it would be like moving to the c bet, if you win both-you would have won the series, and if you split (most common)-you would just treat the next bet like a slightly more expensive b bet. but again, this never caused you to lose a series.

i think last time we were split between covers odds and sbr odds.
i might be using sbr lines as they are easier to read and i normally use them for my backtesting.
to make this simpler, what source are reverend and stingyrivers using for their data?
we might as well go with that.


as for the ties, ive used the opening RL .
So if 2 teams open at -200 and team A is RL +105 and team B is RL +115 i go with team A as they are more favored to win.

[Jhart2838]

For some perspective on the above idea, I am figuring the average juice on the -1 RL will be around -150. If that is the case, your 4 game chase looks like this as a $100/unit bettor:

Game 1: Bet 150 to win 100
Game 2: Bet 380 to win 250
Game 3: Bet 940 to win 630
Game 4: Bet 2350 to win 1570

So if you happen to lose a 4 game chase, you will have lost around $3800 on the series loss.

so yes, waiting for 2 losses would have ensured your a perfect record over the past 3 seasons, but if you happened to sustain a loss this season, you would be in the negative. Assuming around 15 wins a year, you would be +1500 on your wins, but -3800 on that one loss.

I do like the looks of this system, because you are basically betting that the favorite of the day will not lose 6 straight times. I like my odds there, but just know, that if you do hit a loss, you are going to be down for the year on this system.

Using this model just for a -1RL chase, assuming a -150 line and average # of wins of 90 wins, which was gathered by bettor bob from 1999-2008( i included 09 as well) you would be up 9000... and would be able to sustain two system losses...BETTOR BOB, if their is a quick way to check how many seasons a 4 game -1RL chase would of gone more then two losses?



If theres time to gather information on the days there are equal ML favs on certain sites, why not just check a big sample size (say 7) of books and go with the majority??

[bombCanada]

last year there were 2 main problems i dont think we ever solved 100%.

#1 where exactly are we using lines from?
#2 how do we break a tie for biggest opening fav?
some suggested the higher o/u others suggested using the RL difference.

Hi guys

Following your conversation with interest as I continue to bake my own system plans similar to what you're talking about here.

The reality of my own life is that I have limited time within a day to work on this, and that includes placing my bets and making sure they're good to go. So I have made peace with these facts:

1) I may have to make a decision with less than perfect information. Opening lines may not be published on all games yet, but I need to make a decision now and and place my wager now. Any line published after I make my decision I don't worry about. (alternative: if not all lines are out yet, it's a no-bet day).

2) My "perfect" information at decision time may well change after I'm locked and loaded for a given day (pitcher change, weather, whatever). I'm pretty sure most books have a named pitcher condition on their bets, so the worst that happens is a no-bet condition. But if things go pear-shaped before the game and there's nothing I can do about it, it is what it is.

This is all my really long way of saying it's pretty hard to create rules which address every single possible contingency. Also, there's that old joke about only 2 people planning a revolution because 3 people can rarely decide upon a place for lunch.

Because I'm having some trouble making up my own mind about what I'll be doing, I'll probably be playing one system but tracking 3 or more variations just to see what I learn.

So good luck, guys, I wish you wisdom, I'll be following with interest. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

[reverend]

REverend, what about playing a 3 game instead of 4 game? Any data on that?

thanks, by the way, for the data you have already compiled. Very helpful!

I went back and ran the numbers for a 3 game chase over the past 3 years and here are the results:

2007: 80-5
2008: 88-3
2009: 86-5

Assuming an average of -150 on the -1 RL, a series loss would cost you around $1500. So your result would be the following assuming your unit size is $100:

2007: +$500
2008: +$4300
2009: +$1100

So yes, this is a viable option, but it does not squeeze out quite the value that playing the -1 RL on the 4 game chase does.

[jolmscheid]

Awesome info. Reverend...so we are doing the 4 game chase -1 RL for sure then??

[Edge29]

I've lurked around these parts for awhile but never registered. Happened across this thread and am definitely intrigued by this system. I'm usually not much of a system player, but I might give this one a try with some small units for fun. Looking forward to jumping on board.

Are people going to start playing Monday? Or wait a couple of weeks? I think I may just jump in.

[Jhart2838]

this will severaly limit the plays, but what about using a filter where the fav won at least 2 of the last three?


BTW I wonder how many Wins should be taken off the 925-2 record on the 6 game 1-RL chase method, because if you take off the first two and last two weeks of each year...then, you add the 82 from this year, its somewhere close to 950-1. LOLOLOLOL!!

[Jhart2838]

Are people going to start playing Monday? Or wait a couple of weeks? I think I may just jump in.

I think most are going to wait a couple weeks. As last year or the year before had a little stumble with the -1.5 RL in the begginng. I think the best way to play most of april is wait for a loss or two, then chase. Thats what im doing. Then between the 3rd or fourth week of the season, adhere to the system 100%.