System Integrity?

ploben · 04-30-09, 07:30 PM

Oh look...the f!@king Yankees decide to start swinging the bats

do5000 · 04-30-09, 08:43 PM

NOW we're talking!

Slanina · 04-30-09, 08:46 PM

I switch to the boston game to watch Garza attempt the pefect game bid. I switch back 9 minutes later and it's 7-4. Hell yeah!

ploben · 04-30-09, 08:55 PM

Terrible game for the Sox...1 hit 1 walk...good thing they went 11-0

Yanks gotta close this out and lets bring on the weekend

Slanina · 04-30-09, 09:00 PM

Yankee Stadium = Homerun = Loss

Slanina · 04-30-09, 09:04 PM

Shew. Rivera has been struggling lately. Glad to see he came to pitch tonight. Good game guys. Until tomorrows game.

Mr. Progression · 04-30-09, 09:27 PM

toronto is your play on friday

corona · 04-30-09, 11:21 PM

can't we play both toronto and chicago tomorrow?

chicago ml is -266 at 220pm
toronto ml is -250 (-260 on bookmaker) at 700pm

Slanina · 05-01-09, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by corona

can't we play both toronto and chicago tomorrow?

chicago ml is -266 at 220pm
toronto ml is -250 (-260 on bookmaker) at 700pm

What the hell. Another tie between two teams and a different start time. This just happened yesterday. This really needs to be clarified which to play. I guess whatever you feel is the stronger play is the one you take. I don't like that idea to much though.

aneurysm00 · 05-01-09, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

What the hell. Another tie between two teams and a different start time. This just happened yesterday. This really needs to be clarified which to play. I guess whatever you feel is the stronger play is the one you take. I don't like that idea to much though.

I'm doing it according to the opening lines at covers.com.
So, CHC is my play.

Slanina · 05-01-09, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by aneurysm00

I'm doing it according to the opening lines at covers.com.
So, CHC is my play.

Am I not reading something right. It looks like -250 for toronto and -240 for the cubs.

ploben · 05-01-09, 06:41 AM

TOR opened at -250
CHC opened at -240

TOR is the play today

do5000 · 05-01-09, 08:13 AM

yes, TOR opened as the highest favorite. thats my bet.

ploben · 05-01-09, 09:17 AM

One of the chalkiest RLs we have seen all season. Nothing indicates this line getting any better so -135 (BM) might be the best we see. No need to jump on it right away, but watch it incase it moves further into the -

At least it's an A bet so minimum amount of risked money today.

coreygman · 05-01-09, 11:59 AM

Looks like cubbies for me, just edged out TOR. I go with the pick that is the highest when I log in each morning.

CUB R HARDEN -R -285 u8½ -105 -1½ -130
TOR R HALLADAY-R -265 u9 -120 -1½ -135

ploben · 05-01-09, 01:06 PM

I can't believe the TOR RL...bottomed at at -115 on Bookmaker. Anyone hear any news about TOR?? I see nothing on any sports sites about them.

coreygman · 05-01-09, 02:27 PM

Tor just lost 2 games in a row last night for the first time all year, they are playing really good ball right now

ploben · 05-01-09, 02:40 PM

Yeah but it started high and the public was pounding the line. Little RLM on the TOR line.

corona · 05-01-09, 02:51 PM

could a labouchere system be better here for money management, and pure $ amount of winnings?

seems like you could bet significantly more per game while risking the same overall amount if a streak of losses were to come up.

i suppose the biggest downside would be hitting a 4 game loss, then 1 win, then 5 game loss, 1 win, 3 game loss, 1 win....etc. that could certainly bankrupt you. but looking over past seasons, that seems less likely to happen than running into two 7 game losing streaks in 1 season. or a 7 game losing streak early in the season.

thoughts?

ploben · 05-01-09, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by corona

could a labouchere system be better here for money management, and pure $ amount of winnings?

seems like you could bet significantly more per game while risking the same overall amount if a streak of losses were to come up.

i suppose the biggest downside would be hitting a 4 game loss, then 1 win, then 5 game loss, 1 win, 3 game loss, 1 win....etc. that could certainly bankrupt you. but looking over past seasons, that seems less likely to happen than running into two 7 game losing streaks in 1 season. or a 7 game losing streak early in the season.

thoughts?

Not familiar with this system.

Slanina · 05-01-09, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by corona

could a labouchere system be better here for money management, and pure $ amount of winnings?

seems like you could bet significantly more per game while risking the same overall amount if a streak of losses were to come up.

i suppose the biggest downside would be hitting a 4 game loss, then 1 win, then 5 game loss, 1 win, 3 game loss, 1 win....etc. that could certainly bankrupt you. but looking over past seasons, that seems less likely to happen than running into two 7 game losing streaks in 1 season. or a 7 game losing streak early in the season.

thoughts?

Please give details on the system. I have no idea how that works.

corona · 05-01-09, 04:59 PM

cubs cash, if you played them. yay

.

google labouchere system. i'm not that familiar with it either. http://www.ildado.com/labouchere_system.html
i do know johnmorr08 was using it in his nba jm chase system, and it seemed to work great.
its sort of like chasing, but you're not doubling up. you're just increasing your bets after each loss.

i tried backtesting i using 'screaminpains' spreadsheet frrom last season. http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...ml#post1720602
starting with 1 1 1 1 (1 unit each, betting 2 units for the first game...etc)
assuming an average of an even runline, the most you'd be down is 31 units. you'd end the season up 71 units. looks like chasing normally he ended the season up 67 units. and as we know, if any series went past 6, that would have wiped out 64 (?) units. and because that's happened 13 times in the past 9 years, thers a good chance it happens this season.

just a suggestion. looking for people who know more about it...i'm pretty new to this stuff. but it seems safer.

corona · 05-01-09, 09:41 PM

toronto money.

yankees -250ml -115 rl is easily the play tomorrow.

coreygman · 05-01-09, 11:14 PM

Looks like we are all winners tonight!

Looks like yankees on my board also for Saturday

NYY C SABATHIA-L -250 u10 -115 -1½ -115

ploben · 05-02-09, 09:12 AM

It is the Yanks today and I think the patern for CC is one bad game, one good game, one bad game....so we are on his good game.

That's some seriously concrete evidence to bet NYY today

NYY RL -130...lets do it!

coreygman · 05-02-09, 09:43 AM

damn! I should of placed my bet last night! now run line is at -135 for me...

coreygman · 05-02-09, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by ploben

It is the Yanks today and I think the patern for CC is one bad game, one good game, one bad game....so we are on his good game.

That's some seriously concrete evidence to bet NYY today

NYY RL -130...lets do it!

ha thats some good hard digging there ploben! Thanks for your time and effort to find the good info to get us all a win!

ploben · 05-02-09, 11:36 AM

Hey, I do what I can. Didn't get to bed till like midnight crunching the numbers.

Slanina · 05-02-09, 02:30 PM

My god is sabathia overpriced. Everytime he's due the yankees are the bet. Not cool.

corona · 05-02-09, 02:45 PM

without a big comeback, looks like we're doubling up on the dodgers tomorrow

LA DODGERS , Pitcher: BILLINGSLEY-R -1½-110 u8½-115 -230

coreygman · 05-03-09, 02:23 AM

LOS BILLNGSLEY-R -230 u8½ -115 -1½ -110
my current line

coreygman · 05-03-09, 11:32 AM

Yep, Dodgers it is for me.

LOS BILLNGSLEY-R -210 u8½ -120 -1½ -110
Risking $62 to win $56 1st day of chase

Slanina · 05-03-09, 02:51 PM

This line opened at -240 for me. It went down to 220. And just now when I placed my bet it's at -198 and +105. Finally paid off to wait until the last minute to place my bet.

do5000 · 05-03-09, 03:22 PM

good 1st inning so far....

Slanina · 05-03-09, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by do5000

good 1st inning so far....

Good first 6 innings. I see a triple AAA destination in someones near future. Poor guy got called up a week ago.