System Integrity?

coreygman · 04-15-09, 10:54 AM

Still no run line for cubs game for me, this is what I am seeing on my book as the favorites so far

2:20 PM 952 CUB-R HARDEN -R -230
7:10 PM 960 ATL-D LOWE -R -180 u9-125 -1½+110
7:10 PM 962 NYM-OL PEREZ -L -185 u9½-115- 1½+110

Boy got to love the chase! lol 2 days in it for me and I am chasing both days. today my bet will be $120 to get my 30 back from first day, 60 lost from second day, and $30 for the win today!

ploben · 04-15-09, 11:10 AM

I hope you got a bankroll corey. As it was stated before, backtested data from 08 was tested starting in May, to allow the teams to get in a groove and bats to start swinging. We are flying IFR in April (pilot humor).

The CHC ML is leveling out at around -215 across the board so the RL might get better than the +105 I got it at.

A nice afternoon game to watch at work on mlb.com

ScreaminPain · 04-15-09, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by ploben

We are flying IFR in April (pilot humor).

I'd say more like "VFR-on top" (more pilot humor...)

coreygman · 04-15-09, 12:12 PM

yep, I got some reserves for this test, it will be fun

Well my runline came up for the cubs so I am in for the win!! I got +110 also. The M/L was at -215

MLB STRAIGHT BET [952] CUB -1½+110 ( J MARQUIS -R / R HARDEN -R ) Risk 120.00 / To Win 132.00

ploben · 04-15-09, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

I'd say more like "VFR-on top" (more pilot humor...)

When we hit today to reset the chase then it will be. April is like overcast at JFK for a Vegas bound flight.

ploben · 04-15-09, 12:20 PM

Looks like Bradley and Am Ram are out of today's lineup. Might explain the line falling here in the afternoon.

ScreaminPain · 04-15-09, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by BettorBob

I took the -1.5 in all cases. Tomorrow I'll give the -1 line a shot and see what sort of record we end up with.

BettorBob, you've made some intriguing points.

I'd like to see the data you compile using the -1 RL. Unless you have a source for this info, it's going to be a b*tch to compile using data from Covers. You will need to go day-by-day....that's a lot of clicking!

Marvelboy · 04-15-09, 12:42 PM

Im going by the Runline fav and not the moneyline fav to for me its atalanta +110

ploben · 04-15-09, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by Marvelboy

Im going by the Runline fav and not the moneyline fav to for me its atalanta +110

This still wouldn't make sense. What is CHC RL? At most books they are both the ML and RL favorite today. I have them at +105, which is a bigger favorite than ATL's +110.

coreygman · 04-15-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by ploben

This still wouldn't make sense. What is CHC RL? Most books they are both the ML and RL favorite today. I have them at +105.

agree

the cubs runline for me is also +110

ploben · 04-15-09, 02:15 PM

Nice to see a good start for Harden...I smell a 4th chase day approaching.

Marvelboy · 04-15-09, 02:51 PM

My book has cubs @ +115 for the runline and atlanta were +110, using my UK book

coreygman · 04-15-09, 04:51 PM

damn cubs! what a start for me! Now Thursday I will be on Day 4 of chase!

BettorBob · 04-15-09, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

BettorBob, you've made some intriguing points.

I'd like to see the data you compile using the -1 RL. Unless you have a source for this info, it's going to be a b*tch to compile using data from Covers. You will need to go day-by-day....that's a lot of clicking!

Actually, I've already got all the data imported into a mysql database. So, thankfully, all I have to do is write some queries and scripts that walk through the data and simulate the bets. So I should have something for you guys here in a few...

owll52 · 04-15-09, 06:49 PM

OK Flyboys, IFR= I fly roads, VFR=scudrunnin' but I've been following this system and thread and for the month of April I am going to use the TLAR system = "That Looks About Right"

owll52 · 04-15-09, 07:04 PM

On a serious note @ BetJam it looks like NYY tomorrow

914New York Yankees
C Sabathia -L -1½ -105 -183 Action
-183 Listed Pitchers

owll52 · 04-15-09, 07:15 PM

Screamin, Read your post #55 and was curious as to what book offered minus ML's for both teams? Tried to PM you but it is disabled. I have founf reverse R/L but not M/L

ploben · 04-15-09, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by owll52

OK Flyboys, IFR= I fly roads, VFR=scudrunnin' but I've been following this system and thread and for the month of April I am going to use the TLAR system = "That Looks About Right"

The NYY is TLAR for tomorrow, pending the lines for the LAL/SEA game. This one hurts because CC looks like a clown out there in his baggy pants. When are the 1 and 2 pitchers goign to wake up for the Yanks?

Chase Day 4

ploben · 04-15-09, 08:21 PM

Not only have the board favorites for each day not been covering...they haven't even been winning!!

BettorBob · 04-15-09, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by ScreaminPain

BettorBob, you've made some intriguing points.

I'd like to see the data you compile using the -1 RL. Unless you have a source for this info, it's going to be a b*tch to compile using data from Covers. You will need to go day-by-day....that's a lot of clicking!

Okay guys, I re-ran the stats on the -1 runline. Basically the only change is that if our team wins by exactly one run, it counts as a push instead of a loss.

The record for the past ten years (1999-2008) was 925-2. Yes, really.

Breakdown:

565 series were won after 1 game.
219 series were won after 2 games.
85 series were won after 3 games.
42 series were won after 4 games.
8 series were won after 5 games.
6 series were won after 6 games.
2 series were not won.

But it gets even better... one of those losses happened at the end of a season (the last 5 games of 2006 + the first game of 2007), which we never would have actually played. So there's only one real loss in ten full years of baseball, for the series which began on June 29, 2003:

The lines below are the straight-up moneylines, not the runlines (since I don't have that data). But we know for a fact that the -1 runline will be significantly less than the moneyline.

2003-06-29: SD 8, SEA 6 (we bet SEA -270, lost)
2003-06-30: TEX 6, LAA 3 (we bet LAA -210, lost)
2003-07-01: NYY 3, BAL 7 (we bet NYY -220, lost)
2003-07-02: BOS 5, TB 4 (we bet BOS -370, push)
2003-07-03: SD 7, LAD 4 (we bet LAD -240, lost)
2003-07-04: SEA 3, TEX 7 (we bet SEA -195, lost)
2003-07-05: SF 2, SD 5 (we bet SF -230, lost)

Interestingly, if we had bet just one more game, we would have won it all back (in a blowout, no less):

2003-07-06: CHW 11, TB 3 (we bet CHW -190, won)

Of course, we need to confirm all of this data from as many sources as possible, since I don't necessarily trust covers.com. Does anyone have a source of stats that go back before 1999? Or a source that contains the runline -1 odds?

138 · 04-15-09, 10:07 PM

have you tested this using the your original method? thx

bsebal7 · 04-15-09, 11:03 PM

Thank you Bob for the validation!!! I'm sure there are a ton of systems you can probably research with your database knowledge..... Maybe we can figure out a good Over/Under system to couple with this system and take the bookies money all year long. I know I love to chase the Under in San Diego as they finish Under pretty often there.

ScreaminPain · 04-15-09, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by owll52

Screamin, Read your post #55 and was curious as to what book offered minus ML's for both teams? Tried to PM you but it is disabled. I have founf reverse R/L but not M/L

I used data from "scores and Odds" to compile for that post. I used the opening line, which in some case changed.....some higher some lower.

ploben · 04-16-09, 06:51 AM

Home opener for the board favorite today...the Yanks host Cliff Lee and the Tribe. No doubt about this one, heavy chalk to cash in on chase day 4 (for most of us), looks like the RL will be in the - today.

ploben · 04-16-09, 08:48 AM

OK, can someone shed some light on this:

CLE...+190 ML / +1.5 -110
NYY...-230 ML / -1.5 -110

Now I can understand the NYY RL (a little inflated) but the books are saying that CLE has just as good a chance to win by 2????? Then why is the NYY ML so chalky?

coreygman · 04-16-09, 10:16 AM

Looks like the Yanks are favored in my book to, and ya, they are both favorites on the Run Line?? Man if Lee pitches like he should, this is going to be a low scoring game.

Well here is my bet. $240.00. $30 from 1st day, $60 from 2nd day and $120 from 3rd day.

Apr 16 913 CLE C LEE -L +190 o8½ -110 +1½ -115
1:05 PM 914 NYY C SABATHIA -L -230 u8½ -110 -1½-105

Next closest is Dodgers on mine
10:10 PM 912 LOS E STULTS -L-175 u8½ +105 -1½ +125

coreygman · 04-16-09, 11:28 AM

dang it, just went up to -110 but I placed my 4th round Chase bet!

Lets go Yankees!

MLB STRAIGHT BET [914] NYY -1½-110 ( C LEE -L / C SABATHIA -L ) Risk 264.00 / To Win 240.00

ploben · 04-16-09, 01:00 PM

You start walking guys and you get into trouble real quick.

coreygman · 04-16-09, 02:35 PM

not to happy about them taking out CC all ready!

ploben · 04-16-09, 02:56 PM

Maybe we were playing the system wrong. Maybe it's find the biggest fav. and bet AGAINST them, the dog's ML.

April is obviously too early for this system. Neither the books nor the teams have a clue about eachother.

coreygman · 04-16-09, 03:00 PM

ouch 10-1 now, looks like day 5 Chase coming up! So anybody have any Prelim lines?

coreygman · 04-16-09, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by ploben

Maybe we were playing the system wrong. Maybe it's find the biggest fav. and bet AGAINST them, the dog's ML.

April is obviously too early for this system. Neither the books nor the teams have a clue about eachother.

ha, I think its just who ever I bet against will lose. If I pick both teams, it will be a tie

ploben · 04-16-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by coreygman

ouch 10-1 now, looks like day 5 Chase coming up! So anybody have any Prelim lines?

The Yanks again @ -230 with a -110 RL.

rightmow · 04-16-09, 04:22 PM

new idea

four days ago. i started looking at the second highest total. and since we began chasing the second biggest has hit everyday. tonights is the dodgers, i do not know if it will continue

ploben · 04-16-09, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by rightmow

four days ago. i started looking at the second highest total. and since we began chasing the second biggest has hit everyday. tonights is the dodgers, i do not know if it will continue

I actually really like LAD and Stults tonight. I think LAD goes for the sweep tonight.

I am going to put my chase day 5 money on LAD tonight. If (or should I say when) I win I am resetting the chase for tomorrow back to day 1. If I take a loss, I will consider tomorrow to be the last chase day, day 6.

LAD RL +120