MLB 2014 BigDogs Thread "New Light Version"

Sixla · 06-06-14, 05:52 PM

u aren't plain any of the dogs today or this weekend?

fitguy67 · 06-06-14, 05:59 PM

yeah...already on PHI...will def get some STL, BOS, SEA right away!!!

CLE, CHW, NYM can wait a bit (looks like a big 7-dog night!)

you guyz know the drill tho'...

thot everybody could benefit from a break from my "word blizzards"

just get the best price you can given your shopping options/"spidey sense"...

but official "benchmark" record'll start fresh on a new week with Monday's lines/games

in the meantime, no need to miss out on takin' smart shots with "nice doggy" prices

Sixla · 06-07-14, 09:35 AM

looks like the dogs went 1-6…does that bring the TO WIN amount back down to 50?

Cappinpicks · 06-07-14, 09:36 AM

Good fade thread

fitguy67 · 06-07-14, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by Sixla

looks like the dogs went 1-6…does that bring the TO WIN amount back down to 50?

yeah, do whatever your actual balance says...but since we were 4-3 and up about 2.2 "units"(defined as day#1's to-win amount, for this thread we were up $110= 2.2 units of $50)...after 1-5, leaves us 5-8 (hey exactly the expected value for drawing a TJQKA from a deck of cards)...

and probably lost a bit over 2 twa's, which were a hair bigger than $50
(something like -2.5t = +t - 5 *0.7t, figured at yesterday's average odds of about +140)...so in terms of "units", which we'll henceforth define as staying fixed at day#1's "t" of $50, yesterday was a hit of -2.6u
so over all three days and the 5-8 record, down fractional about 0.4=+2.2-2.6 of the $50-units or down $20...

...so starting bank of 2,500 would have dropped a hair to something like 2480...started at 2500, went up to 2610 over first two days...then down to 2480 yesterday...all approximate, but usefully so

so yes, today's "t" would be back to about where it started, or a hair below it...to say $49.60...based on these figs
after 3 days, since our bank is a hair below starting bank (I)...so will the "t" be a hair below its starting value ("u")

____________

fitguy67 · 06-07-14, 12:04 PM

glad you asked that, as it made clear that there is an important place for "unit" or "u" = 2% of I (the inital roll), here it starts at $50 and stays $50
as opposed to "twa" or "t" which is 2% of the latest B =2480 =I + N= 2500 +(-20)
so t always starts out by definition = u, but then varies (what i call "breathes) as the Bank varies (breathes)
______

Also interesting to note here that day#0 was the mirror image of yesterday, going 5-1, + 4.33t..compared to yesterday's 1-5, but just -2.5t...
yesterday's loss is so small only if you employ my "to win" protocol...if you bet the normal "dogs to risk" way, yesterday woulda killed you...instead of down 2.5tish you'da been down close to 4t...over the long haul you gotta contain the losses on the losing streaks (cuz, with dogs there'll be many)...over the long haul of "rallies and slumps", containing the losses in the slumps is far more important to l.t. success than agressively-profiteering from the rallies...ask any poker player (a guy who knows he'll only win 1/7th of the hands...most important thing is how little you lose when you don't take the pot)

the "to win" protocol greatly minimizes severity of $-slumps when dogs go cold...
as for optimally-profiteering from $-rallies when the dogs bark nicely...that's where varying our t daily comes in...as it accelerates into a heater (betting a measured increase of the "house money" that's been flowing in...as long as it flows in)
...an of course decelerates into a freezer period (pulling in the horns of our bet-size as it just did today...so if we get a 2nd cold day in a row, or a consecutive series of them...the $-slump will be minimized)

there's a method to my madness

____________

fitguy67 · 06-07-14, 12:50 PM

let's cool it till tomorrow, we'll start fresh from something like "$2500, $50, 0-0,$0" with a crisp objectively-determined thread-record (the beauty of a mechanical system, where you rely on the lines themselves to "find value" for you)...

but NO ONE's, not even my actual results will be the same as that...what happens with the official thread record will guide us to what we should be doing...but even if we all start with an actual bank to match the thread's , we'll all have our own specific $-figures and after a few days, none will be identical cuz we can't all get the same prices as defined by a specific number showing up on a specific website at a specific time

i'll have to define things theoretically=unrealistically in order to get one definitive set of plays for the day
and it will be something like "everything that appears on the XXscreenshot taken within 30 minutes either side of XXam that shows a price between +135 and +199 inclusive will be considered a play at that price"

those will be the official plays for the day...and they'll always be up well before the earliest game of the day...the shopping will then be up to you (with a little effort you should be easily able to use your access to books and your "spidey sense" to "beat the benchmark" regularly, and over time build up a "+cushion"=a bigger profit or a smaller loss, depending of where we are in the "$-breathing" cycle versus the TTD record...but if you only have one book and are limited in shopping time, you'll probably develop a "-cushion" vs. the TTD benchmark)...

Sixla · 06-08-14, 09:21 AM

Looks like Philly at +145 will be the first play…The question is when to lock in? Does the line usually move in the dogs favor toward first pitch time?

fitguy67 · 06-08-14, 11:32 AM

duplicate: see #12

fitguy67 · 06-08-14, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by Sixla

Looks like Philly at +145 will be the first play…The question is when to lock in? Does the line usually move in the dogs favor toward first pitch time?

yeah, Sixer...once you know you want a dog...you want to get it at the best price you can...

so you use (and develop) your shopping resources...what book (hopefully bookSj) you have and your spidey-sense with respect to timing

i've developed the apporach of deciding early what's on my day's shopping list (just like you've done with PHI) based on an early look at the prices...and then knowing i have until first pitch to lock it in somewhere...and i always try to get "at least as good a price as I saw when i decided it was on my shopping list" (the +145 you saw for PHI, try to meet or beat it)...can't always do this, of course, sometimes you gotta compromise and lose a few cents for waiting...but generally "patience +shopping skills" is a net-plus

generally speaking, price movement can go both ways...but as you get closer to gametime, especially on weekends...usually lotsa dumb late money on the fave...especially the home fave (and you should have noticed that MOST of our plays are away teams...)

good luck on whatever you play at whatever price you play it...

if someone helps me with my request in the above post...i can get crystal-clear as to what's a play each day...

right now, just doing everything for myself is easy...but when you start a thread and want to help others fall along, it can be a headache if anything is left fuzzy

fitguy67 · 06-08-14, 01:04 PM

i need someone to teach me something...

i won't start into an official thread record until i can do exactly what is done here...

GuidaClayAllDay's Plays

in post #248

how to take and post a screenshot of a page from 5d sportsbook and also on the same page a screenshot of the windows clock

I know how to do the simplest screenshot...of the whole monitor (using "PrtSc" key and the paint program...but don't have a clue how to cut it down to an apporpriate size and locate it on the post they way most of you guys do)...

this may be (probably isn't tho...still thot' i should mention it) complicated by the fact that my display covers 2 monitors side by side so my resulting screen that is saved is double-width and the paint file created always has one of those horizontal slide-bars on it so that someone with a single-monitor display looking at my paint-file screenshot can take it all in

i'd like to be able to do what you see here every day, well before first pitch of the day...and anything that qualifies will be locked in at the shown price for the thread record...and everyone will be able to use this as a guide to shopping...try to "beat the benchmark" on specifice plays, if you can...and if you can't on every play...at least try to beat it "over the card"...also feel free to play/don't play/fade whatever you want...you'll always be able to measure how well your "freestyle" is doing vs. the mechanical by comparing your results with the official thread record based on what the morning screenshot prescribes

again...i'll have to hold the "official" thread-record hostage till i figure out how to do this...

if one of you guys walks me thru this...it'd save me a ton of time over figuring it out myself...

_________________________

the very fact that I have to ask demonstrates how much of a techno-dolt I am (outside of excel-spreadsheeting...but any of this multi-media'ing and web-sharing stuff...zilcho)
so spare me the usual "if you have to ask......." smart-assery

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 10:29 AM

ok, still don't know how to crop stuff for a screenshot to freeze the price list...

did it manually (actually visually) today:

only 3 official (ie. for the purposes of having a "benchmark" with which to compare your own results), will post right after this one, in plenty of time for 1310 game

If i'm going to keep a record...I'll do it properly
in a way that makes it easy to evaluate performance
so, first i lay the framework in the format of any later (weekly) reports

for c ("calendar") day1=Monday, Jan06...first Monday of 2014
for z ("buZiness ") day1 = Monday May09...23rd Monday of 2014
every day raises "c" by 1...every "day with at least one effective play" raises "b" by 1

"Thread to Date" or "Since Launch" figs, accurate to close of Sun, Jun08 (c154, z000)

C=calendar days since launch = c - 154 = 0
Z=buZiness days ("days with play") = z - 0= 0

I =Investment= 2,500
B= Bank= I + N = 2,500

T= total $ targeted by all effective plays =0
V = total $ ventured (risked) on all effective plays =0

W=number of plays that won (aka. added $ to the bank)=0
L=number of plays that lost (aka. subtracted $ from the bank)=0

A=Additions = $ added to bank as a result of all winning plays= 0
S=Subtractions = $ subtracted from bank as a result of all losing plays =0

N = net $-returned from all effective plays = A - S = 0
w = %win rate = W / (W + L) = _____%
y= yield= return on risked funds = N/V = ___%
a=average $win = A/W = $____
s=average $loss = S/L = $_____
n=average $change/play= $______

and many other figures like these last 6 may be easily "derived" from the first ten "primary" figures that comprehensively summarize any of the
time (CZ), money (IB), action (TV), result(WL,AS) realites we may need to answer any aspect of the question "how is this project doing" you can think of.

EXhoosier10 · 06-09-14, 10:47 AM

go to your start menu and search for "snipping tool" (in accessories). you can highlight exactly the area of the screen you want. It looks like the other poster moved his browser down to the corner of his screen and hovered his mouse over the clock.

Also FYI, tho this won't help for what you're trying to do but is especially useful for a 2 monitor setup, hitting Alt+Printscreen at the same time screenshots only your active window. So if you have chrome open and you hit alt+printscreen, only the view of chrome is copied to your clipboard and nothing else.

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 11:23 AM

ok, that full-format i just laid out will only be used for reporting results only occasionally ...but i wanted to get a "starting point" etched in first before any action.

today's plays crystal clear-->5d-prices as of 12:21 (49' before first game)

1310. SEA +179 / tam

1905. CHC +139 / pit

1907. MIN +161 / tor

all ACTION, and all TO WIN (not risk, remember) 2% of the bank you've segregated--at least on paper--for this project...so divide your bank by 50, round up the last "cent"...that's the "to win amount" for all plays today related to this project.Nothing is to stop anyone from adding to this later in the day, as other prices move into the window...but for the purposes of an official record, that'll be based off a "once a day" snapshot like this

Everyone's mileage will vary, but we'll all have a handy benchmark to compare with.

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 12:41 PM

SEA closed just two cents higher than i got it about 5 minutes earlier at +185 (heritage)

SEA/tam, close +187
my hit, SEA+185 (her) -27.03 / +50
vs. thread 's SEA +179 -27.93 / +50

so even before my game plays out, i can calculate my own net "shopping score" (actual price - benchmark price)...it's +6 pts with a potential monetary value of $0.90 (realized only if the play loses)...

think i'll keep a side tally of these three "shopping performance" indicators as we go along... points, potential monetary value, and actual monetary value

good luck on your shopping_______

only other dogs with a vague prayer of meeting/exeeding the +135 mark before they close would be
2010. NYY/kan
2140. HOU/arz
2215. was/SFO
but you never know...so always scan the full set of prices, even when u've got a short list of "likely suspects" like we have now...

cuz every once in a while there's a huge line move...most likely due to a pitching change...but this won't affect you in any way...remember, all plays you put on are for "action"...if something you got early at a dog price goes "down" in price ...you just BTCL accidentally...(same applies if you shop early and your dog closes under +135 ... the market just said that the ticket you bought to win a unit has an even better chance to win than u originally paid for)...

on the other hand, and if the dog you bought before cuz your system said it was a play goes dramatically up for any reason...doesn't affect you one bit...this system is based on long-term the long-term historical reality that "big dogs win just a bit higher % of the time than the break-even % implied by their prices"...the dog you already bought becoming an even bigger dog is of little consequence over the haul

to minimize these sorts of concerns/complications, it IS, all else being equal, better to "shop with a view to locking in" your plays as late as possible before the pre-game market closes for each game just before the game begins...but this is not always an option because of this thing called life...so do the serious shopping (as close to first-pitch times as you reasonbably can) when you can and don't worry about it...just buy whatever is in the range...at the best price your situation (books/browsing time) allows...it all works out in the wash...

your mileage will vary...but if dogs in this range are profitable this year (as they are damn near every year)...then the necessarily-unrealistic thread record will do ok and everyone's real-life record will do ok, too...the guy that ran this project originally back in 2011 (bombCanada) did everything EARLY in the morning...before 5d "reduced ML's" disappeared...he "browsed and bought" all at one book at one time...his personal plays became the thread's plays, long before the common late surge of "chase-follower and fan-boy" dumb-money had a chance to kick in...and everything worked out much more than fine for him and whoever tailed...

damn me for violating one of my favorite expressions: "the better is the enemy of the good" and complicating things

_____________

barring any surprising moves, it's shaping up to be a quiet (and hopefully profitable) "3DogNight"

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 04:39 PM

first dog of the official thread record comes in (BTW, don't watch the games just because you have a bet on it)...if you wouldn't watch it without a bet...better to not watch it with a bet either...

why? because nothing can be gained (and a lot lost health-wise) by watching a card be selected at random from a deck of cards (or a euro-roulette spin where we've got 14 of the 17 numbers covered)..that takes over 2.5 hours...excruciating...just because you've got money on it doesn't make it entertainment

anyhow, our first card flip was a winning royal-rank (TJQKA)

so, TGG (team good guys) is up a fixed-$-definition unit, u = I/50...and if we were to end the day here, at B=2550...it would move our variable-$-defintion "tunit"...hmmm...as in every day we must (fine) "tune it""
...ehrm...where was i? oh yeah, our variable "tunit", t =B/50==>$51 would adjust, while the fixed-$-defn = I/50 "unit" would stay stuck at 50--and thus be very useful in measuring $changes ...our tunit would have move from its starting value of 1.0 units to 1.02 units

another way to think of this is that 50 units added together always equal the starting bank (or I = Investment), and similarly 50 tunits will always add up to equal the current Bank (B = I +N)...but $-shrinkage from negative-N or $-increase from positve-N means that the current bank (altho always equal to exactly 50 tunits) will vary in how many of the original fixed-ized units it comprises...

if today were complete...and N=50-->>B =2550-->>t = 51 (the new target value for the next set of plays, until an even newer B is established...rinse, lather, repeat)...
so if someone says...how many "units are u up"...it's clearly +1 now, more generally it's always (B/u)-50...cuz the new bank is large enough to make 50 "original recipe" units and have enough for one more...so we've gone from a Bank of 50u to a bank of 51u...even tho, the number of tunits will always be the same, 50 (by defintion)...because the tunits always adjust up or down to give us ideal ("everyday like the first day") bet-sizes...but useless by themselves as far as measuring growth

carried one tiny bit forward...% growth in an account can be perfectly stated as the funny-sounding "tunits to units" ratio...t/u -1...if u started with $50 units and your betting to win $56 tunits ...it means you'r ac has grow 12%...if your tunits are now $40...it means the ac is down 20% off its starting bank (when units and tunits were, by definition equal)

______________

It should be obvious that i'm using this thread as a personal journal to develop betting-account management ideas in...feel free to look over my shoulder...but feel free to tune out as well...

I'm thinking out loud for my own benefit primarily...if it's TL...then DR
___
anyhow...the day is not done...but my algebraic daydream is...
lots more games coming up at at 19-ish, at least two of which should close in range...

love this experiment...and love my job that gives me lots of down-time with unrestricted internet access

labones00 · 06-09-14, 05:07 PM

You have WAY too much free time lol

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 06:44 PM

just locked in what looks like last two qualifying (the idea is to have, when all is said and done, tickets on all the dogs that close at 5d in the +135 to +199 inclusive...) two secondary goals of this thread have also emerged

efficiency=arranging things to not just hold "tickets with a roughly 40% chance--across the fleet--to win 1 tunit" on teams that qualify by gametime, but to also get these tickets at the the best prices reasonably-available, given limited shopping resources (esp. time, due to other demands of life...this IS a hobby, after all)

equity=to help each thread-follower and the OP-himself to purchase what ultimately proves to be the "correct" set of tickets at what prove to be good prices (hopefully BTCL at least half the time)...an "equal opportuntity" shopping challenge is set well before the day's first pitch
if one simply assumes that these prices are a list of closing prices smuggled in from the future and does nothing more than his best to get each of the tickets at prices that meet/exceed this, he'll be guaranteed to beat the official thread record...

whether this will be enough to make money over the remainder of the season, remains to be seen...

my guess, that with anything close to the normal case of dogs winning at a great enough % (actually, losing at a small enough %) to exceed the win% implied by the prices of the whole fleet of dogs over the season...simply stated, if dogs as a group have anything but a dreadful (say z-score -1.645 or worse) year we should escape without a loss, perhaps even come out golden...

throw in my smoothed-across-the-fleet Kelly-consistent bet-sizing "special sauce" to jazz up the runs and dampen out the slumps and, combine it with enthusiastic effort to "get the very best price you can on each and every ticket you buy"...and I'll do just as well as i possibly can (this means a smaller loss or a larger gain, as appropriate, when compared to the benchmark)...

it all comes down to the sequence of royal-ranked cards (ie. dog wins) drawn from our deck of games over the rest of the season...but we're starting with a historical institutionally-driven edge because dogs GENERALLY--as a group-- aren't just loved...they tend to be chronically UNDER-loved (because favorites GENERALLY--as a group-- aren't just loved...they are chronically OVER-loved). One can point to specific games where the reverse is true...but finding gobs of value on the favorite side of things is much harder to find than value on the dog.

The last two UFC "appearances" of Quinton Jackson were examples of the exceptional case, with Ryan Bader...then Glover Texeira not being favored nearly enough because of nostalgic over-respect for the famous dog. But in general, picking dogs "indiscriminately" (subject only to their falling in a statistically-robust region of profitability) is a much safer way to play the game when real $ are involved.

Captain's Log/Star Date 155/Thread Date 001

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by labones00

You have WAY too much free time lol

agree fully/last two lines in post just above yours explains it all (econ prof--sports is nothing more than a sociological institution...who's been teaching intro stats for years...making sense out of how results distribute and sequence themselves)...so this crap is right up my alley

flies in the face of "Light Version" doesn't it...

i actually have changed my attitude of the purpose of this thread...cuz i am verbosity incarnate...this thread is the log of my journey throug this baseball season, taking an entirely probability-/statistical approach to it...

it's 100% to help me to clarify my thoughts...

others are free to eavesdrop/interject...

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 07:07 PM

oh yeah...thread results have been locked in for hours how...

as for my "day's shopping" report...

SEA +179 thread, posted 1223 / +185 (her) 1307

CHC +139 thread /+138.20 (mbk) 1835 (+141 less 1% commission)

MIN +161 thread / +185 (sia) 1848

God bless sportsinteraction and their "sore thumb" lines...next best price was +165!...hear the same thing about bodog, but when they notice you always hit them, they start dealing from a different server...sia hasn't done that, near as I can tell)

The first part, buying the right tickets at the right prices is done...now it's up to all those who interact to deal (over three-hours-or-so) that "one big" card that tells me whether to put an L or a W in that row. I wouldn't watch if i didn't have a bet, why should i watch just because i have a bet...nothing to gain ('cept blood pressure points)...

but i'll be pulling for whatever team the "tunits" are on!!!!

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 08:09 PM

SEA +179 thread, posted 1223 / +185 (her) 1307

CHC +139 thread /+138.20 (mbk) 1835 (+141 less 2% effective commission)

MIN +161 thread / +185 (sia) 1848

additional non-thread personal play: HOU +135/arz (tsf), 2100

(if it gets into the range i'll try to whack it!...if it closes lower, all good)

where tsf = "ThreeSixtyFive" = bet365
and fdm = "Five DiMes" = fdm, is another one of my non-intuitive abbreviations i've grown comfortable with

also R = thuRsday
and U = sUnday..............to avoid the Tu/Th and Sa/Su schizophrenia

fitguy67 · 06-09-14, 09:44 PM

official thread record for today: 1-2 and down about a third of a unit, about 17 bucks...actual figures tomorrow

the fourth play on HOU that i gave everyone a 40-minute headsup on (which failed to 5d-close at/over +135...but did do so at several important books, including pinny, matchy, sportsinteraction, b365, greek, and even sbr's points-book) has started well...but as we all know 4-zip leads after 3 don't mean shit....a basefall game is a long card-draw/roulette spin/flip of the 40-60 weighted coin.

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 01:23 PM

ok, i now see why people put themselves thru the trouble of making a thread...
the simple act of trying to make clear to others what you're doing as you do it...
helps you see it in a different light...ultimately making things much more clear to yourself

i had long ago given up on using fixed units because i'm sold on the idea that $-betsizes should breathe in concert with $-Bank...and my changing $-definition of whatever $-value i'm either risking or targeting seemed to screw everything up...but as a result of yesterday's musings...it's now clear that you're always free to vary those specific $-amounts used for today's plays, for me defined as B/50 (which i coined "tunits" and represent with "t" ) as long as you keep this ever-changing number separate from the fixed value "units", which is defined as I/N...

given B = I + N...it's crucial to note that by defintion t =u and thereafter t varies, while u stays the same, and in so doing provides a useful function...doing the same thing as $ would, but without all the emotional-horseshit people attach to the $-sign and whatever numbers come after it...

i'll attempt to incorporate this "revelation" immediately into the first report, knowing now that i can have all three things
1, the ability to vary $-betsizes AND
2. the ability to keep all accounts accurate AND
3. the ability to report all results in a $-free way that "rolled with all the punches" (#1) while staying accurate (#2)

the trick is maintaining two things (that by definition start with the same value) separate...

*the unit or "u" which is simply a fixed number that can be used to "convert" any specific (confidentia, really) $ amounts into anonymous general terms...AND

*the "twinit" (the "to win it" said and spelt quickly) or "t" which has specific application in betsizing...period
___________

i'll incorporate this new "revelation" into all future posts...once the bugs are worked out this thread can go totally $-free while giving me the freedom to maintain a full set of accurate accounts and manipulations (an ability that i thought was lost once $ were abandoned)...ok, nuff for now on this

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 01:56 PM

thread results accurate to close of day 1 (Mon, Jun 09)
starting from B = 50u

Three official plays hit at prices +179, +139, +161 (W,L,L)
A= 1u
S= 1.3406u (= 0.7194 lost on play#2 + 0.6212 lost on play#3)
N= A - S = -0.3406u

so, B = I + N = 49.6594u
= 50t, where t=0.993188u (which defines todays bet size)

______________

in original $-ese, this tells same story as our bank falling from its original 2500 to 2482.97,
as day's N = -17.03 (given our one win's A=50 and the S=67.03 from our two losses)
defining today's t = 49.66
___________

the problem with u-based accounting systems is that, if a sensible "rounding" protocol is not adopted...they can quickly choke themselves out with decimal places...

more on that later...thinking of defining the bank as comprising 5000 units instead of 50...starting us off with betsizes, A's and S's that intentionally look "dollar-like"...from which we'd always round to the second decimal place...which dollars always do

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 02:19 PM

ok, close enough to day's first pitch to officially declare today's offical plays...

Plays for Tue, June 10's official thread record and "benchmark" for your own actual "shopping for dogs" project
1905. chc +148
1907. min +145
2010. CHW +135

Note: three-letter code for away teams will be "lower case"
three-letter code for HOME teams will be UPPER CASE

Note: the four digit number that starts each selection is the 24-hour time without the colon (EDT="NewYork" Time)

All plays ACTION, all TO WIN exactly 2% of project's latest Bank.

___________________

Your shopping will/should differ...as the general idea is to buy dogs in the (+135 to +199 inclusive) range and to buy whatever you buy at the best price your shopping skills/resources (heavily determined by non-betting aka. "life, etc." realities) allows.
_____________

I keep this thread record (and am entertaining myself greatly in the pursuit of eventual excellence in the task...this manageable number of daily plays that form the record allow me to think about/experiment with new ways of conceptualizing, naming, and doing things) merely to provide a benchmark against which you can compare your own results...
____________
good shopping...it's a long season...i think the thread can recover from the 0.3406-unit hole we've been dug into

pacocn · 06-10-14, 02:51 PM

Fit, bol today, I am on the cubies with you!!!!!

Sixla · 06-10-14, 05:59 PM

CHW game postponed. Marlins +144 at 5D right now.

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 06:31 PM

shopping alert (has no effect on the three plays posted for today in #26)...

i found and added two more dogs to my own personal card

2005.mia +150 at fdm now...but i got it a few minutes earlier at +140 (sia)

2210.nyy +132 at fdm now but >=+135 at other major books...i got it a few minutes earlier at +140 (sia)

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 07:18 PM

here's what i ended with for my own account (official benchmark in brackets)

chc+162 (tsf) (+148)
min + 136 (tsf) (+145)...just missed submitting @ +170 by seconds...then had to "sneak in" live, luckily while MIN held a 2-0 lead, but TOR put RISP with no/lo outs to give me another entry window...luckily MIN got out of ining and i'm in at ok price AND a 2-run lead)
CHW +140 (sia) (+135)

so today's "shopping score" vs benchmark today is +10 = +14 -9 +5, and could have been much better if i didn't "cut it too close to the close" of the MIN market and trade in a +25 for a -9 on that game...oh well, another "rule of thumb" : "close to the "close" is good/too close is bad...because starting "in play" prices are heavily chalked on each side...eg. at tsf going from 10cents pre-game to 30cents live...think "driving a new car off the lot"
_________
mia +145( grk)
nyy +140 (sia)

no shopping score here...cuz no benchmark to compare with...

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 10:09 PM

in addition to the 5 dogs above...i also took san +175 pre-game , right here at sbr-book...betting to win 750 betpoints is equivalent to betting to win $50 real bucks because you can convert your bet points into $ at several books, as long as you jointed them thru sbr...occasionally sbr actually has the best price, like on this game...

i just hope nba isn't going to pull more "amazing" bullshit tonight...it's like fukkin' WWE with a ball and a hoop...unwatchable crap...especially the last 2 minutes that take about 45-minutes in realtime...

and just like WWE you gotta bet it with an eye to what "marketable story" they're trying to develop...i hope they're not trying to add an episode to the LBJ as comic-book hero crap...

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 10:20 PM

wild horses couldn't make me watch the NBA...i swore it off completely after that game-6 bullshit in last year's final...they're wheeling out the fukkin' trophy to the guy whose team has a 5 point lead with just 35 seconds on the clock...any high-school coach would'a known what to do...instead we get "sports entertainment" bullshit

if you like that sort of orchestrated "story arc" crap, WWE is way better...NBA seems to be marketed at fans of the same "mental age" as WWE...

anyhow, hope by writing about "sports entertainment" bullshit, i somehow prevent it from happening tonight...cuz i can feel another LBJ nut-huggin' story, complete with all the contentious last-two-minutes pussy drama you NBA fans love...

i NEVER watch this horseshit...not since last year's g6-Final...and i ALMOST NEVER bet on it...if i get fukked tonight...i'm removing that word ALMOST for good

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 10:25 PM

VERY good chance of going 5-0 tonight with my 4 dogs (5 less the CHW-cancellation) and this athletic-entertainment thingy with a round bouncy ball...and lotsa guys in pajamas running around along with a few guys with zebra-striped shirts who, near the end of the evening's entertainment, spend an increasing amount of their time telling the pajama people to stop running and bouncing and throwing the ball...cuz they gotta put on and take off headsets and look carefully at a notebook computer

pacocn · 06-10-14, 10:29 PM

Fit great work, no capping time, and definitely no viewing time, hopefully just workout time, stooges, lesson plans and a couple apps to scoreboard watch, best of luck

fitguy67 · 06-10-14, 10:44 PM

thank you jesus