Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

arpeggiomeister · 06-15-14, 10:22 AM

Everything covers. The underdog chase has been tearing it up as
of late. This is a bit shocking. The Semi-Arbitrage streak now
stands at 27. Quite a run.

Today's Plays

Underdog Chase

PHI
-125

$12.50

O/U Chase

LAA
U/7.5 -125

$12.50

Semi-Arbitrage

TEX +153	$14.15
SEA -1.5	$15.91 ($5.74)

arpeggiomeister · 06-16-14, 10:40 AM

The semi-arbitrage covers and the others lose bringing them both
to tier 2.

Today's bets:

Underdog Chase

PHI
+127

$25.59

O/U Chase

LAA
U/8.5 -115

$37.38

Semi-Arbitrage

COL +170	$13.30
LAD -1.5 +115	$16.70 ($5.91)

arpeggiomeister · 06-17-14, 09:01 AM

Everything hits. This raises my streak on the semi-arbitrage to
29. The TB Rays have just taken over the the bottom of the power
rankings so they are our new underdog. Today's Semi-Arbitrage is a
bit of deja vu. Same teams but the return is the highest I have seen
for one of these yet. Hopefully we notch up win 30 tonight.

Today's Plays

Underdog Chase

TB
-120

$12.00

O/U Chase

TEX
U/7 -120

$12.00

Semi-Arbitrage

COL +160	$14.08
LAD -1.5 +130	$15.92 ($6.61)

AceofSP2107 · 06-17-14, 09:16 AM

Thanks for your time and plays

keel44 · 06-17-14, 11:32 AM

On that semi-arbitrage, how long do you chase? I could see about 4 in a row losing for you.

sunnyCA · 06-17-14, 12:14 PM

hey man good stuff after reading your thread i have began to look at betting in a somewhat of a different light. thank you. its 100% true about sports betting ppl buy when they should sell and sell when they should buy. i see tons of picks on here and have been through it before, especially with baseball, where ppl are all over one team for game 1 of a series and that teams loses then , because of the line or a pitching match up, they will pick the other team that just won for game 2, instead of "chasing" the team they just lost on. catch my drift. and u end up losing both games. there is balance in sports and the world so this idea that u presented totally makes sense to me. I am interested in how it works with NBA and NFL. is it just buying up a high line with teasers after a blowout? similar to the 10+ runs chase?

sunnyCA · 06-17-14, 12:19 PM

also how do u determine which team to chase on the 10+ runs chase. yesterday texas and KC both scored more then 10 runs and u chose tex but why not KC.

arpeggiomeister · 06-18-14, 09:42 AM

The underdog and O/U chase lose. The Semi-Arbitrage covers.

Today's plays

Underdog Chase

TB
-138

$44.16

O/U Chase

TEX
U/7.5 -105

$33.60

Semi-Arbitrage

NYM +133	$15.63
STL -1.5	$14.57 ($6.22)

arpeggiomeister · 06-18-14, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by sunnyCA

hey man good stuff after reading your thread i have began to look at betting in a somewhat of a different light. thank you. its 100% true about sports betting ppl buy when they should sell and sell when they should buy. i see tons of picks on here and have been through it before, especially with baseball, where ppl are all over one team for game 1 of a series and that teams loses then , because of the line or a pitching match up, they will pick the other team that just won for game 2, instead of "chasing" the team they just lost on. catch my drift. and u end up losing both games. there is balance in sports and the world so this idea that u presented totally makes sense to me. I am interested in how it works with NBA and NFL. is it just buying up a high line with teasers after a blowout? similar to the 10+ runs chase?

That is the basic idea. When possible I like to do everything I can to tilt the odds in my favor. In the NFL one of my favorite things is to find 3 dominant teams that just lost against the spread and pool them together into a 10 point teaser. Last year was rough because there was not enough dominant teams to do this week after week but the 2 years prior I absolutely crushed it with that strategy. With the NBA and NFL my primary strategy now is to follow the top ranked team on ESPN and chase them week after week. The top ranked team will have the most volatile spreads. Volatility is what makes the chasing systems work. As far as how I chose TEX over KC yesterday, you are overthinking it. Flip a coin. I simply chose. There was no rhyme or reason or special analysis. A choice had to be made so I made one. If I were to think about it deeper I would probably go with the line that is more expensive, thus indicating that people think the game is going to go under, but that is just an after thought. Hope that helps.

AceofSP2107 · 06-18-14, 10:33 AM

Good luck on plays

arpeggiomeister · 06-19-14, 09:39 AM

The underdog loses again bringing us to our 3^rd tier
today. For an underdog TB is -155 today which is making this chase
expensive very early on.

The Over/Under hits and the amazing streak with the Semi-Arbitrage
continues notching up win 31. I checked the score right before going
to bed and thought I had lost but when I jumped on Betdsi this
morning I saw that I had won. The Mets won the game by 1 run and
they were the underdog so that worked out great.

Today's Plays:

Underdog Chase

TB
-155

$133.55

O/U Chase

PHI
U/8.5 -120

$12.00

Semi-Arbitrage

BOS +145	$14.85
OAK -1.5 +140	$15.16 ($6.37)

arpeggiomeister · 06-19-14, 09:44 AM

I chose PHI for the under over CIN because it was 8.5 for -120. CIN was 7 for -110. CIN was my first choice but the -120 tells me there is more of an expectation for the game to go under for PHI.

arpeggiomeister · 06-20-14, 09:58 AM

phi +147	$18.25
stl -1.5 +140	$18.78 ($8.02)

arpeggiomeister · 06-20-14, 10:00 AM

Everything covers. There will be no underdog play or over under
today. The Rays are still at the bottom of the rankings and are
-195. That is too expensive to start a chase with on an underdog.
The entire point of the underdog chase is to get plus odds. No team
scored over 10 runs so I have no under bet today either.

The semi-arbitrage continues its streak... ...now up to 32. I am
using a variation of something called the anti-martingale now. I am
protecting the $280 and risking everything beyond that. I am
currently at $317.94. My target is $340. I will keep increasing my
bet size as I win until I hit $340. At that time I will reduce the
bet size back to $30 and start again with a new target. If I lose I
get knocked back to $280. I am risking $37 today. If I win then
tomorrow I will risk $45. This approach will help me aggressively
compound my profits. The purpose of setting targets and then
reducing the bet is to protect profits that I have made instead of
getting knocked all the way back to the beginning. My first goal is
to recover the $200 I lost early in the season. If I am successful
then my next target will be $560. That will be a 40% gain on $400.
This strategy has already outperformed my expectations. If I can hit
this target before the end of the season I think it demonstrates this
thing is for real.

Today's play:

PHI +147	$18.25
STL -1.5 +140	$18.78 ($8.02)

arpeggiomeister · 06-20-14, 10:01 AM

Excuse the glitch, reposted with write up

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

phi +147	$18.25
stl -1.5 +140	$18.78 ($8.02)

arpeggiomeister · 06-21-14, 09:19 AM

Semi-Arbitrage covers. The odds on TB are -155 today so I am
avoiding them again. I decided to move up the rankings one notch and
take the Cubs. Toronto scored 14 runs last night and Milwaukee
scored 13. The over under for Milwaukee is 11 and only 8.5 for
Toronto so I am taking MIL.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

CUBS
EV

$10.00

O/U Chase

MIL
U/11 -110

$11.00

Semi-Arbitrage

SEA +152	$21.44
KC -1.5 +120	$24.56 ($8.03)

AceofSP2107 · 06-21-14, 09:42 AM

What is your past history for the Under chase ? But I respect the whole system just curious

arpeggiomeister · 06-21-14, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by AceofSP2107

What is your past history for the Under chase ? But I respect the whole system just curious

Here is the entire experiment to date. On the left is the underdog chase, on the right is the over under. I started chasing the under on 5/4/14 and have done very well with it. I will go through and post the record but I am posting the history as well because I am human and make mistakes.

Date	Team	Bet	Win/Loss	Team O/U	Bet	Win/Loss
04/07/14	Hou +137	$7.35	L	STL O	$11.00	W
04/08/14	Hou +154	$17.76	L	DET O	$12.50	L
04/09/14	Hou +170	$32.42	L	DET O	$39.00	W
04/10/14	Hou +185	$52.72	W	No Play	NP	NP
04/11/14	Cubs +135	$7.40	W	DET O	$11.00	L
04/12/14	Cubs +205	$4.88	L	DET O 6.5	$29.52	W
04/13/14	Cubs +200	$12.44	L	DET O 6.5	$10.00	L
04/14/14	NP			NP
04/15/14	NP			DET 08	$36.00	Postponed
04/16/14	Cubs +175	$27.04	L	DET O8	$36.00	L
04/17/14	NP			DET O7.5	$72.38	W
04/18/14	Cubs -105	$88.58	L	LAD O7	$10.50	L
04/19/14	Cubs +130	$140.72	W	LAD O7.5	$29.05	W
04/20/14	ARI +132	$7.58	L	LAD O7.5	$10.50	L
04/21/14	ARI +108	$25.53	L	LAD O7	$33.55	P
04/22/14	ARI +101	$62.49	L	LAD O6.5	$48.60	L
04/23/14	ARI +118	$114.92	W	LAD O6.5	$93.56	W
04/24/14	Break			Break
04/28/14	NP			MIL O7	$9.53	W
04/29/14	HOU +135	$7.41	L	MIL O7	$12.50	Postponed
04/30/14	HOU +133	$20.61	L	MIL O7	$11 (-110)	W
05/01/14	NP			NP
05/02/14	HOU +170	$34.13	W	MIL O7.5	$11.00	L
05/03/14	HOU +117	$8.55	W	MIL O7	$31.00	W
05/04/14	HOU -115	$11.50	L	COL U10.5	$11.00	W
05/05/14	HOU +225	$14.00	L	TEX U10.5	$10.00	W
05/06/14	HOU +160	$34.69	L	SFO U7.5	$12.50	W
05/07/14	HOU +190	$52.73	L	DET U9	$12.00	W
05/08/14	HOU +170	$95.84	W	COL U9.5	$12.00	W
05/09/14	HOU +150	$6.67	L	TOR U9	$9.52	W
05/10/14	HOU +150	$11.11	L	SD U6.5	$12.00	L
05/11/14	HOU +155	$24.37	W	SD U7	$26.40	L
05/12/14	HOU +115	$8.70	L	TOR U9	$85.50	L
05/13/14	HOU +104	$27.60	W	TOR U9 -115	$188.49	P
05/14/14	HOU -109	$10.90	W	OAK U9 -115	$188.49	W
05/15/14	NP			CLE U9 -120	$12.00	W
05/16/14	HOU -103	$10.30	L	COL O10 -105	$10.50	L
05/17/14	HOU -123	$37.27	W	COL O9.5 EV	$30.50	W
05/18/14	HOU -125	$12.50	W	ARI U9 -120	$12.00	W
05/19/14	HOU +180	$5.56	W	NP
05/20/14	HOU +160	$6.25	L	OAK U8 -120	$12.00	W
05/21/14	HOU +180	$14.58	L	LAA U/8 -115	$11.50	W
05/22/14	HOU +132	$38.51	L	MIA U/7.5 -120	$12.00	W
05/23/14	HOU +215	$46.20	L	TEX U/8 EV	$10.00	L
05/24/14	HOU +118	$131.81	W	TEX U/8.5 -110	$31.00	L
05/25/14	HOU +137	$7.30	W	TEX U/8.5 -120	$85.20	L
05/26/14	HOU +140	$7.14	W	TEX U/9 -110	$182.82	P
05/27/14	HOU +116	$8.62	W	TOR U/8.5 +105	$165.23	L
05/28/14	HOU +135	$7.41	W	TOR U/9 -105	$369.00	W
05/29/14	HOU +115	$8.69	W	ARI U/9 -120	$12.00	W
05/30/14	HOU -110	$11.00	W	NP
05/31/14	HOU -130	$13.00	L	MIL U/7.5 -120	$12.00	L
06/01/14	HOU -101	$23.23	L	TOR U/9 -105	$23.10	W
06/02/14	NP			NP
06/03/14	HOU +115	$57.59	W	NYM U/8 +115	$11.50	W
06/04/14	ARI +120	$8.33	W	NP
06/05/14	ARI +118	$8.47	W	ARI/U10.5 -110	$11.00	L
06/06/14	ARI +104	$9.62	L	ARI/U8 -110	$23.10	W
06/07/14	ARI -110	$32.58	W	PIT/U7.5 -105	$10.50	L
06/08/14	ARI -105	$10.50	W	NP (PIT U wins)
06/09/14	NP			HOU U/9 -125	$38.13	W
06/10/14	PHI -102	$10.02	W	CLE U8 -120	$12.00	L
06/11/14	TB +115	$8.70	W	ATL U/10 -110	$35.20	P
06/12/14	PHI -113	$11.40	W	ATL U/10 -120	$50.40	L
06/13/14	PHI -125	$12.50	L	ATL U7.5 -120	$122.88	W
06/14/14	PHI -115	$37.38	W	BOS U/9 +105	$9.52	W
06/15/14	PHI -125	$12.50	L	LAA U/7.5 -125	$12.50	L
06/16/14	PHI +127	$25.59	W	LAA U/8.5 -115	$37.38	W
06/17/14	TB -120	$12.00	L	TEX U/7 -120	$12.00	L
06/18/14	TB -138	$44.16	L	TEX U/7.5 -105	$33.60	W
06/19/14	TB -155	$133.55	W	PHI U/8.5 -120	$12.00	W
06/20/14	NP			NP
06/21/14	CUBS EV	$10.00		MIL U/11 -110	$11.00

arpeggiomeister · 06-21-14, 03:24 PM

Since switching to the unders on 5/04/14 I have gone 24-15-3 according to my count. I have posted the history so anyone can double check those numbers if they wish. That is a 61.5% win ratio if you discount the 3 pushes. That is enough to make a profit straight up but I am not concerned with that at this time. This is a chase system. The losing streaks are what I am concerned with. The biggest losing streak began on 5/23 and went 4 deep, thus needing 5 tiers to finally cover on 5/28. I lost $291.43 and needed a bet of $369 to finally pull of a win and right the ship. This brings the total at risk amount to $660.43. Since this is a grand martingale system I win $10 for bet placed as long as to do not bust. My last under bet on PHI covered. There have been 42 total bets placed on the under for a profit of $420. This is a paper trade and I was estimating a bankroll of $3,000. My target is 40% ROI. I have barely dented the bankroll. It would take 120 bets to hit that target. So far it appears I am right on pace to hit that target.

arpeggiomeister · 06-22-14, 08:09 AM

The semi-arbitrage is the only bet that covers. We are on tier
two for both the underdog and O/U chase. I am still waiting for
Betdsi to pull their thumbs out of their butts to get the spreads up
and their site is glitchy this morning so I do not have a
semi-arbitrage yet but I have my eye on the Yankees game.

Today's Plays:

Underdog Chase

CUBS
-121

$36.30

O/U Chase

MIL
U/10.5 -105

$32.55

arpeggiomeister · 06-22-14, 08:21 AM

Okay, got the numbers. Yankees is a no go. I am taking a a bit
of a risk because the money line is not where I would like to see it
(-140) but I am taking the Reds/Blue Jays game.

Semi-Arbitrage

TOR +120	$29.30
CIN -1.5 +161	$24.70 ($10.46)

arpeggiomeister · 06-22-14, 08:21 PM

The amazing streak for the Semi-Arbitrage finally comes to an end. I am back down to $280. I will start to build again and see how it goes. I am making about 20% so I would expect to lose 1 out of every 5 bets if this were perfectly random. 34 wins in a row is definitely an anomaly. If I can hit that kind of streak again then it might just mean there is more then luck going on. That is why I do these experiments. I think there is more to this then blind luck but only time will tell. I am working 12 hour days all next week and have to leave by 10am. I will try to put in the plays if I can but the run lines do not come out until around 10am on Betdsi. I will do my best to get the plays out.

arpeggiomeister · 06-23-14, 08:55 AM

Everything loses. We are on the 3^rd tier with the
Underdog and O/U chases. I have something a little different going
on with the Semi-Arbitrage. I placed my first bet and then found a
better one and could not resist so I placed both. It was not my
original intention to risk $60 each time, but if I continue it will
take approximately 5 wins to get me back to where I was before
yesterday's loss. This is where the rubber meets the road. Can we
recover and get back on track, or will this prove to be like most
chase systems; fatally flawed?

Today's Plays:

Underdog Chase

CUBS
-110

$83.93

O/U Chase

MIL
U/8 -110

$80.91

Semi-Arbitrage

1) PIT +131	$14.56
TB -1.5 +145	$15.44 ($5.67)

2) BOS +135	$15.79
SEA -1.5 +161	$14.22 ($7.10)

arpeggiomeister · 06-24-14, 08:27 AM

Cubs lose, everything else covers. I am on my 4^th tier
with the Cubs now. Despite being low in the power rankings I have
not had plus odds so this is starting to add up. We are at $170 and
change to win $40.

I will continue the semi-arbitrage at $60 per bet to try and
recover my losses. Yesterday hit on two bets but it can only count
as one because it was $60 risked for both collectively. My account
was at $334.66 before the loss. I am at $293.43 after yesterday's
win. It will take 4 more wins to recover.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

CUBS
EV

$170.53

O/U Chase

SEA
U/7.5 -115

$11.50

Semi-Arbitrage

MIN +160	$27.16
LAA -1.5 +115	$32.84 ($10.61)

arpeggiomeister · 06-25-14, 08:12 AM

The under loses, the dog and semi-arbitrage both win. TB still
sits at the bottom and are still too expensive to start an underdog
chase with so I will go with the next one up which is now ARI.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

ARI
+105

$9.52

O/U Chase

SEA
U7 -115

$36.23

Semi-Arbitrage

PIT +135	$30.63
TB -1.5 +145	$29.38 ($11.97)

arpeggiomeister · 06-26-14, 08:08 AM

The Semi-Arbitrage covers and the other bets lose. We are on tier
3 with the under bets and tier two with the underdog. I will
continue the chase with SEA and ARI. Neither one is playing today so
we will only have a semi-arbitrage today.

Today's play:

Semi-Arbitrage

MIN +147	$28.60
LAA -1.5 +125	$31.40 ($10.65)

arpeggiomeister · 06-27-14, 08:13 AM

Semi-Arbitrage covers. We are on the 3^rd tier of the
over/under chase and 2^nd of the underdog.

I have reduced the risk amount on the semi-arbitrage to $46.08
today because if I win this bet I will have recovered everything I
lost. If I lose I will be back to $280. I am defending the $280
profit. If successful today then I will bet everything beyond $300
using an anti-martingale in an attempt to reach $400. This is how I
play a D' Alembert System. I recover what I lost. I then set a new
target and build towards that. I am using an anti-martingale this
time but I will use different variations depending on how I feel
about the risk factor. Anti-martingales are very high risk but after
hitting a streak of 34 wins I am willing to take that risk. It could
have been just an incredible streak of luck but that is why I am
conducting this experiment, to find out.

Today's Plays:

Underdog Chase

ARI
+112

$26.36

O/U Chase

SEA
U/7.5 -110

$70.66

Sem

STL +130	$24.00
LAD -1.5 +150	$22.08 ($9.12)

arpeggiomeister · 06-28-14, 09:05 AM

Everything covers. There is no play on the under today as no team
scored over 10 runs yesterday.

I am reducing my bet size on the semi-arbitrage and defending
$300. I am starting with $35 and am going to up my bet size every
time I win until I hit $400. My numbers may go completely screwy as
I am starting to look at boosting my account in preparation for the
NFL season. I may completely abandon the chase to $400 and start a
new chase with a new influx of money. While the bet sizes will not
make sense the track record is what is important and that will be
completely documented. I just hit 5 in a row which is defying the
odds again. In order for the books to have any kind of edge over me
I should be losing 1 out of every 5 of these semi-arbitrage bets.
This experiment is still very young so this could be just beginner's
luck, but so far this strategy is showing more profit potential then
anything else I have. I will be curious to discover if this works as
well in the NHL as it has been working here.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

TB
+120

$8.33

Semi-Arbitrage

MIN +150	$16.58
TEX -1.5 +125	$18.42 ($6.45)

arpeggiomeister · 06-28-14, 09:09 AM

Decided to pull the trigger. I have not boosted my account yet
but I am risking $200 on another semi-arbitrage. I am going to
attempt to double that $200. If I fail I will put $200 more in to
replace it. I chose the NYY for the second arb.

Semi-Arbitrage Play 2

BOS +140	$98.95
NYY -1.5 +135	$101.06 ($37.47)

arpeggiomeister · 06-29-14, 09:03 AM

Firing on all cylinders; everything covers!!!

I am stepping up my game with the semi-arbitrage in hopes that it
produces the same kind of results it has been. I took the combined
winnings and am risking them today in an anti-martingale. I am
risking $279 today. I will continue to bet all the winnings plus
$200 until I hit $500. I am at $379 right now. Today's ROI will be
under 18%, but 18% seems to be the average. It will take me 2 bets,
including today, plus a partial to hit my target. When I am in range
of $500 on the last bet I will only risk what I need to hit the
target. If I fail I will step back and re-evaluate if I want to
continue risking this much. This is a very high risk strategy and I
fully appreciate the risk I am taking. I have made peace with losing
a couple hundred but I am not prepared to lose thousands on this.

My past results warrant me stepping up a bit so that is what I am
doing. I do not want to go hog wild because even though my data
looks really good the sample size is tiny. I can convince people
that the martingale system is a good deal on a roulette wheel with a
similar sample size when we know the truth is it is anything but a
good deal. I believe this is different because there is human
emotion affecting the numbers. That is the key difference between
sports betting and virtually any other casino game.

The dice, the cards, and the roulette wheel could not give a rat's
ass whether you are excited or scared, they will do what they are
going to do regardless. If people are excited on the over the line
gets pushed and that clearly affects the odds. It is not random. It
is not my imagination. This is really happening. If you have
followed me so far you have seen me crushing it with a betting system
that is not supposed to work. It is working because the odds are
based on emotion, not random chance. These emotions create bubbles
that are predictable. I can not predict exactly when they will
burst, only that they will occur and that most cycle out very quickly
which is why the chasing systems are working so well despite what the
odds are supposed to be. This is just a hypothesis at this point but
I have seen enough evidence to become thoroughly convinced that I am
right.

Today's Plays:

Underdog Chase

TB
-110

$11.00

O/U Chase

ATL
U/8.5 -115

$11.50

Semi-Arbitrage

CLE +175	$119.27
SEA -1.5 +105	$160 ($48.73)

keel44 · 06-29-14, 12:12 PM

I have a money management idea for your Semi-Arbitrage strategy:

I have been looking it over and essentially this is around a -550 wager--give or take. You should/need to win 6 in a row for every 1 you lose just to stay a float. You need to take advantage of the fact you should/could win a few in a row. I propose you set it up like this:

Bet in groups of 6. Make the following statement..."Anytime I win 6 in a row, I will profit 1 unit."

A unit could be whatever percent of your bankroll you like. I like 2-3 percent.

You take 1 unit and divide by 6. Each bet needs to win 0.167 unit. You win 6 in a row, you profit 1 unit. When you lose, add your net losses for the group of 6 and add it to your 1 unit profit target. Divide by 6 again and bet to win that amount. You are "chasing" the scenario of winning 6 in a row. Eventually you will win 6 in a row and profit your 1 unit.

example: assume (-550 odds)

You win 5 of 6. your net losses are .0835 unit. Add it back to your target of 1 unit. Divide by 6 again. Each wager is now trying to win .18 instead of .167 unit before.

Now you win only 4 of 6. Your net losses here are 1.26 units. Add that to your target of 1.08 = 2.34 is your new target. divide by 6 again. Each new bet in the group of 6 is .39 unit

Options:

* you can bet multiple games at the same time
* your target can be whatever unit amount you want
* the group size can be whatever you want
* this can be used for any chase, anything with high odds

any questions? thoughts?

arpeggiomeister · 06-29-14, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by keel44

I have a money management idea for your Semi-Arbitrage strategy:

I have been looking it over and essentially this is around a -550 wager--give or take. You should/need to win 6 in a row for every 1 you lose just to stay a float. You need to take advantage of the fact you should/could win a few in a row. I propose you set it up like this:

Bet in groups of 6. Make the following statement..."Anytime I win 6 in a row, I will profit 1 unit."

A unit could be whatever percent of your bankroll you like. I like 2-3 percent.

You take 1 unit and divide by 6. Each bet needs to win 0.167 unit. You win 6 in a row, you profit 1 unit. When you lose, add your net losses for the group of 6 and add it to your 1 unit profit target. Divide by 6 again and bet to win that amount. You are "chasing" the scenario of winning 6 in a row. Eventually you will win 6 in a row and profit your 1 unit.

example: assume (-550 odds)

You win 5 of 6. your net losses are .0835 unit. Add it back to your target of 1 unit. Divide by 6 again. Each wager is now trying to win .18 instead of .167 unit before.

Now you win only 4 of 6. Your net losses here are 1.26 units. Add that to your target of 1.08 = 2.34 is your new target. divide by 6 again. Each new bet in the group of 6 is .39 unit

Options:

* you can bet multiple games at the same time
* your target can be whatever unit amount you want
* the group size can be whatever you want
* this can be used for any chase, anything with high odds

any questions? thoughts?

First I just want to thank you for the time and effort you put into this. I definitely need to work on the money management end of this strategy. At the moment I am kind of fusing elements from your example with thoughts of my own. I will write it up and show you and we can kick around the idea for a bit and perhaps tweak it a bit.

arpeggiomeister · 06-29-14, 04:15 PM

I really like the part where you set up a unit as 2% to 3%. It is
really important to have discipline in this game or you can go broke
quick. I have been caught up in that trap before and the bookies
absolutely love it. My NFL season went down the toilet last year
because my balls were bigger then my brains. I put it all on the
line and got away with it several times. This gave me more and more
confidence. In hindsight the bet that ended my season was
inevitable. I was trying like hell to get a 100% gain and lost it
all. With a little discipline I could have walked away with a
respectable 20% gain instead of losing everything.

I am still chewing on the scenario you gave. I am going to say
that we have a $1,000 bankroll and $30 is one unit. $30/6 = $5. $5
/ 0.18 = $27.78. This would be the size of your first tier bets.

If you win 5 of 6 you lose $27.78 but gained $25 which loses
$2.78. This is the part where you lose me. You say my losses are
0.0835 of one unit. $2.78 / 30 = 0.0926. Is my math correct to this
point or did I miss something along the way?

Anyways, I really like the idea. I believe I can see where you
are going with it and it is exactly what this strategy needs.

Here is my thoughts which will simplify the chase but may be a bit
more risky. If you could run a scenario with your money management
system and compare it to mine that would be awesome.

Taking the cue from your suggestion I will start with $30 as one
unit. I will risk $30 plus the profit from each successful bet in
the series to attempt to double as fast as I can. The compounding
process eliminates the 6^th bet in the series, and almost
clips off the 5^th but not quite.

$30 x 1.18 = $35.40
$35.40 x 1.18 = $41.77
$41.77 x 1.18 = $49.29
$49.29 x 1.18 = $58.16

The 5^th bet would need to be $10.22 to win $1.84 to
finish off the one unit. You then start over.

If you lose you double your bets to $60 and doe the same thing.
This gives us a chase system within a chase system. We are using the
anti-martingale with each bet to attain our one unit. If we lose
during this process we double our bet and start again.

$30
$60
$120
$240
$480

This is a 5 tier system and needs $930 to fund. That makes one
unit roughly 3.23%. Given what I have seen so far I think this will
hold up. I will go over my numbers and give a demonstration with the
actual bets that I have placed so far. I am going to assume all bets
are an 18% ROI just for the example which is not accurate but will
make my life much easier instead of using the exact ROI for each game
which would be both time consuming and tedious. If you would use the
same numbers to demonstrate your system we can then compare them
which would be awesome.

arpeggiomeister · 06-29-14, 05:10 PM

W $30 x 1.18 = $35.40
L BR $900 Tier 2
W $60 x 1.18 = $70.80
W $70.80 x 1.18 = $83.54
W $83.54 x 1.18 = $98.57
W $98.57 x 1.18 = $116.31 ($120 - $116.31 = $3.39
W $20.50 x 1.18 = $24.19 - Chase one concludes BR $960
L BR $930
W $60 x 1.18 = $70.80
L BR $870
W $120 x 1.18 = $141.60
W $141.60 x 1.18 = $167.09
L BR $750
W $240 x 1.18 = $283.20
W $283.20 x 1.18 = $334.18
W $334.18 x 1.18 = $394.33
W $394.33 x 1.18 = $465.31 ($480 - $465.31 = $14.69)
W $81.61 x 1.18 = 96.30 - Chase two concludes BR $990
W $30 x 1.18 = $35.40
L BR $960
W $60 x 1.18 = $70.80
L BR $900
W $30 x 1.18 = $35.40
W $35.40 x 1.18 = $41.77
W $41.77 x 1.18 = $49.29
W $49.29 x 1.18 = $58.16 ($60 - $58.16 = $1.84)
W $10.22 x 1.18 = $12.06 Chase 3 concludes BR $1,020
W
W
W
W
W Chase 4 concludes BR $1,050
W
W
W
W
W Chase 5 concludes BR $1,080
W
W
W
W
W Chase 6 concludes BR $1,110
W
W
W
W
W Chase 7 concludes BR $1,140
W
W
W
W
W Chase 8 concludes BR $1,170
W $30 x 1.18 = $35.40
W $35.40 x 1.18 = $41.77
W $41.77 x 1.18 = $49.29
W $49.29 x 1.18 = $58.16 ($60 - $58.16 = $1.84)
L Catch a lucky break and lose on the last tier: $58.16 -
$10.22 = $47.78
W $47.78 x 1.18 = $56.38 ($60 - $56.38 = $3.62)
W $20.11 x 1.18 = $23.72 Chase 9 concludes BR 1,200
W
W
W
W

If tonight's bet covers then chase 10 will conclude making a
profit of $300 for a 32.% ROI. My goal is to make 40% ROI for the
season. It would take 13 successful chases to accomplish this.

Just to reiterate, I am looking to make 40% in the MLB, just under
20% in the NFL, and 22% in the NBA. When compounded this will make
100% a year.

$1,000 x 1.4 = $1,400
$1,400 x 1.2 = $1,680
$1,680 x 1.22 = $2,049.60

Starting with $2,000 it would take 6 years to break $128,000 at
this rate.

$4,000
$8,000
$16,000
$32,000
$64,000
$128,000

keel44 · 06-29-14, 06:31 PM

It is a nice plan. I would caution you as lightning could strike somewhere, and you could lose most everything when you chase like that.

As for our little money management strategies, your way needs to win 5 in a row. That streak would happen anytime. My way, the streak needs to happen in groups. My way is safer, but you need to be a lot more patient. Looking at your example, my way would profit you 5 units with 2 more games pending. Your way has cashed in 10 units.

You can change the group size from 6 to anything else. The bigger the group size, the safer it is, but less profits per time. The smaller the group, the riskier on a bankroll, but quicker profits.

In your example, #8 thru #13 you had 3 losses in close proximity.....suppose that continued. Believe me, it can.

Given these type of odds, you need to win 5/6 to break even -- roughly. That is 83.33 percent. There will be times you hit below that rate and time you hit above that rate. I believe a slower progression is needed to ride out the "bad" times. I think your way is just a "little" bit too aggressive. My way should be adjusted to win 1.5 units per group of 6 using your method.