CK's 2009 MLB Baseball Season Thread

[therber2]

No I use Greek.com daily, but I use Betus when I do live wagering as Greek doesn't always offer that option.

Thanks CK. I've never heard anything bad about theGreek. I mainly use bookmaker; which is shady a lot of the time. One time they literally told me that if I was "winning too much" they would not pay out. I said, "what do you mean exactly.." They just replied saying, "Sir, please do not try to do anything; you will not succeed." **** bookmaker. Anyone know why BetUS has a C-? CK have you had any problems with them?

Thanks brutha.

[cocknocker]

Baseball Umpire Report Sorted by Under % For the 2008 Season</B>#Umpire#GOverUnderOver %Under %OV UnitsUN UnitsRPGBBPGSOPG1S RAKOS2020.0%100.0%-2.42.05.510.522.02M CARLSON1010.0%100.0%-1.21.05.06.09.03C TILLER61420.0%80.0%-3.22.88.07.012.34B DAVIDSON34102330.3%69.7%-14.111.98.07.313.85R KULPA33102231.3%68.8%-13.310.27.86.215.16M ESTABROOK2271531.8%68.2%-8.76.88.26.313.07D BEAL62433.3%66.7%-2.11.88.07.015.28M FOSTER34112134.4%65.6%-10.88.88.46.613.99B KNIGHT34122235.3%64.7%-10.78.28.86.812.810A HERNANDEZ34112035.5%64.5%-10.37.38.56.312.711E MONTAGUE2691636.0%64.0%-7.95.88.16.913.212C MERIWETHER33122136.4%63.6%-9.86.98.96.413.913W BELL36111936.7%63.3%-9.06.39.16.413.814C BUCKNOR34122037.5%62.5%-8.85.98.46.113.415B MILLER37132138.2%61.8%-8.86.68.05.813.416B ONORA35132138.2%61.8%-8.75.88.65.913.417D DEMUTH34132138.2%61.8%-9.05.78.56.213.718B HOHN26101638.5%61.5%-7.24.57.57.114.019P EMMEL35142140.0%60.0%-7.94.48.05.713.720D SCOTT34142041.2%58.8%-7.24.49.36.814.121A FLETCHER33121741.4%58.6%-5.93.28.17.214.322B DRECKMAN33141942.4%57.6%-6.23.08.36.613.623M WEGNER35141942.4%57.6%-5.92.99.27.913.924J NELSON34141942.4%57.6%-6.33.18.35.514.325M MUCHLINSKI73442.9%57.1%-1.20.410.04.015.926K DANLEY28121642.9%57.1%-5.12.68.46.912.927B RUNGE35141843.8%56.3%-5.31.79.05.913.628R DRAKE37162044.4%55.6%-5.41.78.76.514.429D EDDINGS34151845.5%54.5%-3.51.29.66.314.230P NAUERT33151845.5%54.5%-3.90.69.16.013.131T BARRETT35161945.7%54.3%-4.21.28.36.014.632S BARRY30141646.7%53.3%-2.8-0.39.97.112.633M WINTERS32151746.9%53.1%-2.80.08.86.413.334J WOLF34151746.9%53.1%-2.1-0.59.17.013.935T HALLION35161847.1%52.9%-2.3-0.69.36.313.536G CEDERSTROM35161847.1%52.9%-2.7-0.78.56.013.537F CULBRETH36161847.1%52.9%-3.4-0.38.87.213.538D COUSINS36171947.2%52.8%-3.4-0.49.37.512.839R MARSH1991047.4%52.6%-1.3-0.710.57.311.740J LAYNE32151648.4%51.6%-2.3-1.59.47.913.141P CUZZI33151648.4%51.6%-2.2-0.88.55.815.542E COOPER34161650.0%50.0%-1.3-2.79.56.112.943C GUCCIONE37171750.0%50.0%-1.4-3.09.86.612.844J HOYE37171750.0%50.0%-0.2-2.810.16.914.645M EVERITT36161650.0%50.0%-1.0-2.39.66.414.146G GIBSON36161650.0%50.0%-0.4-2.79.57.413.347L BARKSDALE34161650.0%50.0%-0.6-2.19.08.312.948P SCHRIEBER30151550.0%50.0%-1.2-1.69.78.412.749C RELIFORD29141450.0%50.0%-0.6-2.19.97.213.450J KELLOGG36181751.4%48.6%0.3-3.89.57.112.751D IASSOGNA33171651.5%48.5%0.4-3.78.66.515.252B GORMAN35171651.5%48.5%0.3-3.89.55.813.753T WELKE36171651.5%48.5%0.7-3.79.16.514.754E HICKOX32161551.6%48.4%0.1-3.69.66.614.455J JOYCE35171553.1%46.9%1.7-5.19.66.212.556G DAVIS33171553.1%46.9%0.8-4.69.87.013.557R REED137653.8%46.2%0.7-2.18.57.612.758M REILLY35191654.3%45.7%2.4-5.89.36.813.659E RAPUANO36181554.5%45.5%1.9-5.49.66.912.360T TIMMONS34181554.5%45.5%2.6-5.510.16.014.661M DIMURO33181554.5%45.5%2.3-5.89.26.612.862A JOHNSON35181554.5%45.5%2.3-5.59.68.014.263J CRAWFORD2311955.0%45.0%1.8-3.811.37.811.864T MCCLELLAND35191555.9%44.1%3.8-6.610.37.812.265J WEST34171356.7%43.3%3.0-6.310.26.113.466B WELKE34191457.6%42.4%4.2-7.510.37.013.767L DIAZ34191457.6%42.4%4.7-8.19.55.814.168S HOLBROOK36211558.3%41.7%5.3-9.210.87.113.269L VANOVER32171258.6%41.4%4.0-7.310.17.113.370C FAIRCHILD36211460.0%40.0%6.6-10.211.07.613.171A MARQUEZ35201360.6%39.4%6.8-10.010.58.414.072H WENDELSTEDT35201360.6%39.4%6.5-9.79.86.914.073T TSCHIDA34211361.8%38.2%7.5-11.09.97.414.574M HUDSON34211361.8%38.2%7.6-11.710.17.913.675J REYNOLDS35211165.6%34.4%9.7-13.710.36.113.076J MEALS35231265.7%34.3%10.8-14.69.96.513.577T TICHENOR128466.7%33.3%3.9-5.59.36.312.878K CAUSEY96366.7%33.3%2.9-3.810.46.810.979G DARLING34231167.6%32.4%11.9-16.19.96.412.680D REYBURN43175.0%25.0%1.8-2.611.87.013.381A CAMPOS2518578.3%21.7%13.2-16.511.66.614.882D COLON220100.0%0.0%2.0-2.313.05.014.583C MOSER110100.0%0.0%1.0-1.215.09.06.0

[cocknocker]

Up top here we have the umpires and their percentages for the under.

In order to produce a good chance for an under, what you would do is take the umpires such as B. Davidson who has a 69.7% chance of hitting the under and if he is the home plate umpire in a game at Petco Park. Or R.Kulpa at 68.8% The percentage of the unders are heightened when you combine one of the good "under" umpires as the home plate umpire with a park that doesn't yeild that many home runs per game. Always remember that. Especially when you look up and see a ridiculously low total line like a 7 and see one of the top under umpires as the pitch caller for the evening

[cocknocker]

Now the vice versa of that is to look toward the bottom of the list and take the over when the umpires with LOW percentages of games going under/higher percentages of games going over.

For instance take the over when an umpire like A. Campos is the home plate umpire in a park like Texas Rangers park that has a high amount of home runs in it.

[cocknocker]

I haven't had any problems with Betus or Greek...

[solobass]

tailed Shoebox on Tampa Bay today, looking good so far.

[mixpicks]

CK: Real Good Stuff Here RE; Bases. IMO One Of The Most Important Factors to keep in mind is this statement here: "make it a habit to go against ANY line that is over -150" This leads into my thinking that in Baseball, Betting this way (Dogs)One Only has to Win in the 40's% and still make nice profits. Favorites over 150 Will Kill You, and one will have to win in the 80'% to make any profit. Another good statement, is 1st five inning pitches on Totals, example,Lannon for the Nats (last Yr-) Big to the Under in the 1st. Five..
BOL

[Chi_archie]

I haven't had any problems with Betus or Greek...

isn't Betus the scammer book the is in cahoots with the john morrison chase system?

[cocknocker]

isn't Betus the scammer book the is in cahoots with the john morrison chase system?

I can't say for sure about them scamming people. I haven't had any problems with them cashing out, or putting my money in for deposits. But moreover than that, Betus isn't the important thing to be gained from this thread. The information is the key not what books are reputable. A person can use any book or local that they want. The research for whatever book is totally up to the wagerer. Alwas do your homework when it comes to any transaction involving money

[TMajic]

CK, have you found over the years that these umpire "under" percentages stay pretty consistent?

[cocknocker]

Yes. An umpire is just what he is!

[Vreston]

CK Thanks for all the great analysis!

There was a time when I knew just about everything there was to know about baseball. That was up to 1985 when I first left the States (I didn't bet on it though). As a kid all I did was follow sports. But now that I've been out of things for so long I'm looking forward to getting back into things as much as I can. With your help and guidance I think I can do it and maybe pull off some winnings on the way.

I'm looking forward to reading your thread (and your picks). Now if I ask some questions that might seem childish from time to time try and be patient with me.

Keep up the great work and thanks!

[solobass]

Yes. An umpire is just what he is!

they are who we thought they were.

yesterday i had 2 pushes in my 4 team parlay what a day.

[peterpan19]

solobass

what do you like today in baseball ?
slight lean on det...

GL
thx

[cocknocker]

Ah yes boys and girls today is the day for me to unveil the CK Grand Slam Baseball System...

Each and every year MLB has 300 or so more times than not when a run will score during the 1st inning. To take the wager for a run to score in the first inning is basically going against the mindset of the public, who have it fixate in their minds that there is a propensity for no runs to score in the first inning. This is shown by the odds offered by variuos books on the prop, which show a higher amount of vigorish for a prospective bettor to take the option that a run will NOT score. I find that most of the time the option for a run to NOT score is offered with + money or in other words the books are paying YOU to make the wager.

So what i do is line up on the side of the books and take the more unlikely thing to cash whic is that there will be arun scored.

Since his is a system bet, I encourage bettors to have a totally seperate account for this kind of play,so as to not interfere with the profits that can be made from doing this. I personally don't touch my profits until the end of the year, and then pull the money out in increments of $2500 per week.

A quick tap of the calculator will reveal my findings are profitable. I start off playing them in the first week of May to give the hitters time to warm up their bats. I play them for $200.00 a game until the month of August, whereupon I switch to $300.00 per game as the pennant races heat up and hitters are swinging for the fences in an effort to produce early runs. So even at $200.00 per game for he full year the profits are astounding... 300 X $200=$60,000.00

The way that I do it though (switching to $300.00 per game in August) I manage to catch 100 or so wins at $300.00 so my balance sheet looks like:

$200.00 X 200 + $300.00 X 100= $70,000.00


I do this wager for College Baseball World Series and playoffs as well.

Now that you have the body of the season under control it's now time to talk about live betting.

With live betting you have the option available to you to make a wager that a run will score between each inning. What i do in the playoffs is approach the games the same way by taking the1st inning for a run to score and then i double up through the 3rd inning ONLY. If there has NOT been a run scored by the third inning then I call it a loss. However there were only 3 games in the entire playoffs and World Series last year where there were no runs scored by the third inning so it is easy to see that I enjoyed great success.

This option can be used with live betting in games on ESPN throughout the year as well as the College Baseball playoffs.

The numbers are there. For any prospective baseball wagerer who doubts that this system will work, I encourage you to go back for the last 4 years and count the amount of times a run scored in the 1st inning versus the amount of times that one did NOT score and then come back to this thread and tell me what you have found. And then tell me why you would be foolish enough to not play this home-made system I have founded.

I encourage bettors to have a starting bankroll of $4000.00. If you can't come up with that then at the very least come up with $2000.00. If you have $4000.00 then you can play the system right along with me for the same amounts. if you start off with $2000.00, then your standard wager would have to be $50.00 per game until August, and then you can switch to $100.00 per game then. You will need a bankroll that can withstand the up and down nature of this type of wager because there will be ups and downs as you build up your nest. You are to play each and every single game that is played this year (as I said i don't start until the 1st week of May, but others will start before then) all the way through the end of the World Series.

This is a prop bet that takes absolutely no homework to do. All that you do is check the time that your book offeres these props and simply go down the line selecting the option for a run to score in the 1st inning for ALL the games every day in the morning while you drink your coffee.

Once again, do not play any other type of wager with this account. I don't care if it's a dog race or a Canadian Football game or even a wager on a baseball game. DO NOT MIX THIS MONEY UP. You now have your instructions. Get em CK MAFIA!

[solobass]

solobass

what do you like today in baseball ?
slight lean on det...

GL
thx

i have the tigers and mets today both straight and parlayed. i will probably have a few others later, but still digging into lineups for today.

[solobass]

holy S#%T CK! i bow down to thee....

[bailey]

CK,If $4000 bankroll is enough for $200 plays shouldn't 2000 bankroll be enough for 100 plays?What would be a typical line for a run to be scored in 1st inning?

[Bobby518]

Awesome, CK!

I'm in! Thanks!

B

[StyleQ]

CK, thanks for the help, I have set aside my 4 Gs, I am wondering though, can we really expect to make 60 000 plus for the season + playoffs?

[CP Thrizzle]

Question, CK... Do you only do the "double up if no run scored until the 3rd inning" thing in the playoffs or for all the regular season games too? I'd imagine that would get pretty tedious if one did that all season long...

[tweek]

Hey CK,

I'd love to play along with you this season. So you're saying that while there are ~300 more games per season where a run is scored in the first than not, the prop bet that a run WILL score in the first is generally a dog bet (positive line)?

If this is true, sounds like a sure-fire system. Have you actually played it in the past?

Looking forward to it!

[melincrea]

CK,If $4000 bankroll is enough for $200 plays shouldn't 2000 bankroll be enough for 100 plays?What would be a typical line for a run to be scored in 1st inning?

I have the same question!

And on a side note, does anyone know if Pinnaclesports offers these props or live betting for MLB? (if not, time to change books!)

[cocknocker]

CK, thanks for the help, I have set aside my 4 Gs, I am wondering though, can we really expect to make 60 000 plus for the season + playoffs?

With ease as lng as you stay strict to the golden rule. And that is don't f*ck with the money until the season is over. You will see 60 grand with 300 more wins than losses

[cocknocker]

I have the same question!

And on a side note, does anyone know if Pinnaclesports offers these props or live betting for MLB? (if not, time to change books!)

To answer you both...if you have a bankroll of only $2000 and you sustain a 3-8 day, then you will cut into your nest deeply if you are wagering with $100.00 per game. If you have a bankroll of $2000.00 I suggest you start out with $50.00 wagers and then work your way up to $100.00 wagers once you get to the $3000.00 level at the very least. Be patient and make your money knowing tht the baseball season goes from April to November. that's a long time

[cocknocker]

Question, CK... Do you only do the "double up if no run scored until the 3rd inning" thing in the playoffs or for all the regular season games too? I'd imagine that would get pretty tedious if one did that all season long...

It's no different than watching a NBA game. When the opportunity comes in between innings just play your money while the commercials are on. I don't do it for all the televised games. I usually do it when i can, but i do it for ALL playoff games both in college and pro

[cocknocker]

CK,If $4000 bankroll is enough for $200 plays shouldn't 2000 bankroll be enough for 100 plays?What would be a typical line for a run to be scored in 1st inning?

+120 is what i see is the usual line for a first inning run to score. Do not play this system with $100.00 wagers with only a $2000.00 bankroll. Wait until you get to $3000 before you stat playing for $100 a game. This game that you are playing (baseball) is an up and down game, bu by the end of the year you will end up with 300 more wins than losses. Use CBS Sports to research the results from years past.

[tweek]

CK... did you play this last year? How did it do?

[esz04]

http://erikberg.com/mlb/20080506/

Good link to backcheck last year's results for anyone interested

[Cheme82]

Ok guys if anyone wants to help to backtrack this system we can all choose a month and 6 of us can probably get done a whole year in about 20 minutes . Then you can come back and post the results for your month and we put it together. To get the ball rolling I'll post the results from last year, it took me about 2 hours.

May 08

Total games: 421
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 229
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 192
Differential: +37

June 08

Total games: 404
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 211
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 193
Differential: +18

July 08

Total games: 381
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 183
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 198
Differential: -15

August 08

Total games: 424
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 239
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 185
Differential: +54

September 08

Total games: 381
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 216
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 165
Differential: +51

October 08

Total games: 32
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 22
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 10
Differential: +12

Totals for the year

Total games: 2,043
1st. Innings when run/s scored: 1,100
1st. Innings with no run/s scored: 943
Differential: +157

For the playoffs I have a total of 34 games. If you played them normally you would have ended up with a 23-11 (+12 differential) record. If you doubled till the 3rd. inning you would have ended up with a 31-3 record (+10 differential). Remember a loss when you are doubling up till the 3rd. inning is a loss of 7 units because you would lose 1 unit+2 units+4 units.

CK recommends to start betting 1/40th. of your bankroll. After June you would have more than doubled that bankroll so you could bet twice as much for the rest of the season. That would make you 259 units for the year.

Assuming a $4,000 initial bankroll. Without doubling up you would have ended up with $19,700 for the year.

I did a trial where I adjusted the wager size every day to be 1/40th. of my bankroll for that day. Doing that and starting with $4,000 you would have ended up with $111,322.

That total might be unrealistic as it will require you to bet almost $3,000 per game towards the end of the season. I don't know what the max size wager is for this type of bet but opening up 4 accounts and putting $1,000 on each and starting at $25 per game on each account will make it easier to achieve this total.

This was without college baseball and without doubling up as I found doubling up to be -EV at least for last year.

I got Excel sheets for anyone interested.

Hopefully a few of you can do 2007 so we can see what happened then. Have to go pick up my daughter from school, will be back in a while.

[hii]

cheme82

good job on the backtracking!

[tweek]

Hey Guys,

I have a database of every event in 2008 (from retrosheet). So, I was able to easily query for this stat.

There were 2428 games played in 2008 (regular season -- 2430 is the "standard number" [162*15 = 2430]... I believe 2 were not played due to rainouts and were not needed to be made up as they were not playoff-bound teams).

Anyway, of the 2428 games, my query shows that 1281 had a run scored in the first inning, while 1147 did not (+134).

Unfortunately I haven't imported any years prior to 2007, so I won't be able to query on those.

The thing I'm curious about is whether this system was played last year, and how it turned out. The thing that can't be forgotten is that the book will set an individual line for each game. So, while "most" of the bets may have been dog bets (>+100 that a 1st inning run will be scored), if you only WIN the bets that are favorite bets (<-100), you can still lose money, even if the average line is >+100. Unfortunately, I don't have historical lines for these prop bets.

Perhaps CK has an excel sheet showing the lines on the bets he made last year? If so, I'd be happy to back test it and post the results.

[jackng]

April '07

TOTAL GAMES: 368
1st inning Scores: 201
1st inning NO Scores: 167
Differential: +34

[cocknocker]

That's good research Cheme82, but it is incomplete because I do live wagering on MLB every chance that I can get and I ended up picking up 96 more wins last year during the year than losses


Without the profits from live betting included here's the numbers:

(185 wins is just for season and playoffs)

At $200.00 a pop with 185 wins you would end up with $37,000.00
At $300.00 a pop with 185 wins you would end up with $55,500.00

With live wagering on MLB also factored in I picked up 96 more wins due to runs being scored by the third inning of games throughout the season and here's how it fared:



$200.00 a pop on 281 wins you get $56,200.00
$300.00 a pop on 281 wins you get $84,300.00

Multiply these numbers by 2 (husband and wife) and you make that 100,000.00 with ease with no homework involved.

Of course we aren't even adding in the NCAA Baseball Playoffs and NCAA World Series

[cocknocker]

I like the doubling up factor because you cover your losses with ease. Most games will have a run scored by the third inning, And although a lot of people don't like to do it, I think that it is essential to maximize profits. Can't do some of the homework. You have to do ALL of the homework.