MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[otunj]

Jmon, how do i find out what team this query is talking about for todays games?
Thanks
Bobby

63-144 (-1.28, 30.4%)

avg line: 125.9 / -135.9

on / against: -$6,535 / +$5,895

ROI: -31.6% / +21.0%

Jun 28, 2014

Sat

away

Angels

Hector Santiago - L

Royals

Yordano Ventura - R

125

8.5 --- scroll to bottom of query

The first numbers in the results are for the first team listed on the plays for today (Angels) and the 2nd numbers of for the 2nd team (Royals). So.... on / against: -$6,535 (Angels) / +$5,895 (Royals).

Play is on the Royals straight up.

Same way to read the RL and OU. Royals are +$3,078 on RL, but RLs are too risky for me.

So play is the Royals straight up.

[JMon]

So padres, Astros and redsox? Or Yankees I'm confused

If you are referring to one of my queries, it's the Yankees...

are you confused on how to read the play, numbers etc after you run the queries??

[inmyownzone]

If you are referring to one of my queries, it's the Yankees...

are you confused on how to read the play, numbers etc after you run the queries??

Just get confused when I see = Red Sox but the play is Yankees

[otunj]

Ya it was with Astros but Oberholzer kind of stinks. Idk kind of torn now.

team=Astros and D and p:XW and season>=2011

Astros 0-12 since 2011 as a dog when they are off an extra inning win. I may be sitting this one out. Unless I see another query with a good sample size over the years points to the Astros, I may be sitting this one out.

[otunj]

Just get confused when I see = Red Sox but the play is Yankees

Read post #1016 about a different query and see if that helps

[BasesLoaded314]

Thanks for the info Bases. I had a question for you. At what percentage ROI do you deem enough to wager on a certain game?

well my minimum standard to "qualify" is at least 25%roi and 100 game sample size, but obviously higher is better. I start off by looking for a LARGE set of games that show a tendency to go a certain way. for example, see

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5

here is almost a 6,000 game set (out of ~25,000 in the database) that shows good potential for OVERS.


from there, its a matter of running through parameters to isolate the winners. ive found the following to be generally effective:


short term hitting stats:

[BasesLoaded314]

p:hits
p:runs
p:HR

these can sometimes be used up to 7 games in the past effectively.


mid-range batting stats:
tA(hits, N=10)
tA(HR, N=10), etc

past performance pitching qualifications:
s:SRA
s:SHA
s:SPT
s:batters faced
starter rest
s:SSO, etc

again, these can sometimes effectively look further back than the most previous start

and then theres season long pitching stats, such as
STDSWHIP
STDSERA
starter wins - starter losses

and also some miscellaneous parameters
streak (SU or OU depending on query type)
margins (SR or OU) (both recent and mid-range)
line
SG
SGS
day, etc

[bobby29]

This query is producing a fade or play against. After copy and pasting, scroll down to the bottom; it will show the active team in the query where we want to fade.

Thanks for the help Jmon

[bobby29]

63-144 (-1.28, 30.4%)

avg line: 125.9 / -135.9

on / against: -$6,535 / +$5,895

ROI: -31.6% / +21.0%

Jun 28, 2014

Sat

away

Angels

Hector Santiago - L

Royals

Yordano Ventura - R

125

8.5 --- scroll to bottom of query

The first numbers in the results are for the first team listed on the plays for today (Angels) and the 2nd numbers of for the 2nd team (Royals). So.... on / against: -$6,535 (Angels) / +$5,895 (Royals).

Play is on the Royals straight up.

Same way to read the RL and OU. Royals are +$3,078 on RL, but RLs are too risky for me.

So play is the Royals straight up.

Thanks for this post OTUNJ. this helps me a lot to understand the querries.
Bobby

[BasesLoaded314]

SDQL . com has a very good manual available as a pdf if u want to learn who to decode the hieroglyphics

[Alex Vaile]

I wonder if the roof was open or closed in Toronto?

[Alex Vaile]

p:hits
p:runs
p:HR

these can sometimes be used up to 7 games in the past effectively.


mid-range batting stats:
tA(hits, N=10)
tA(HR, N=10), etc

past performance pitching qualifications:
s:SRA
s:SHA
s:SPT
s:batters faced
starter rest
s:SSO, etc

again, these can sometimes effectively look further back than the most previous start

and then theres season long pitching stats, such as
STDSWHIP
STDSERA
starter wins - starter losses

and also some miscellaneous parameters
streak (SU or OU depending on query type)
margins (SR or OU) (both recent and mid-range)
line
SG
SGS
day, etc

Ok I'm starting to see your methods. Thanks for the info. How long have you been at this? Pretty cool how baseball can be dissected into so many variables.

[Alex Vaile]

well my minimum standard to "qualify" is at least 25%roi and 100 game sample size, but obviously higher is better. I start off by looking for a LARGE set of games that show a tendency to go a certain way. for example, see

p:HR = 2 and op:HR < 3 and SG < 5 and SG != 3 and 1 < SGS < 5

here is almost a 6,000 game set (out of ~25,000 in the database) that shows good potential for overs.




short term hitting stats:

Maybe a silly question but why put series games as 5 when no series are 5 games? Ya 25% seems solid and I like it how there are so many games included in your queries.

[otunj]

I wonder if the roof was open or closed in Toronto?

Was open today.. My query on indoor games is a no play tomorrow as TOR/CHI will be the 4th game of a series

[otunj]

Maybe a silly question but why put series games as 5 when no series are 5 games? Ya 25% seems solid and I like it how there are so many games included in your queries.

the query says less than 5 (SG<5)

[Alex Vaile]

the query says less than 5 (SG<5)

I get it on how many. But why not just put 4 or less was essentially my question as no series are 5 games in the regular season.
I was just curious. And ok no play for tomorrow on hays roof. Good luck today

[BasesLoaded314]

they are very rare in the regular season, but there are 5 game sets that pop up from time to time

SGS=5 and playoffs=0 and H

[Alex Vaile]

they are very rare in the regular season, but there are 5 game sets that pop up from time to time

SGS=5 and playoffs=0 and H

There u have it. Thanks Bases. I wasn't aware that 5 game series existed.

[Alex Vaile]

Houston up early. Braves under crushed. Bummer it looked good early

[otunj]

Houston up early. Braves under crushed. Bummer it looked good early

I despise the 8th and 9th innings a lot, I've noticed.

[JMon]

I get it on how many. But why not just put 4 or less was essentially my question as no series are 5 games in the regular season.
I was just curious. And ok no play for tomorrow on hays roof. Good luck today

also a way to filter out playoffs; likewise playoffs=0

[JMon]

Houston up early. Braves under crushed. Bummer it looked good early

I must have missed the query for ATL under or I decided not to take it.

[JMon]

Anyone using the newly implemented visual graphs? I'm such an ol'timer with sdql, suppose I need some more time with them!

[Alex Vaile]

Anyone using the newly implemented visual graphs? I'm such an ol'timer with sdql, suppose I need some more time with them!

Where do you access the visual graphs? Sound's like another nice tool

[JMon]

Where do you access the visual graphs? Sound's like another nice tool

to the left of the query box, there is a drop down box where one can select a different graph

[JMon]

damn how long on this delay..slicker?? you know

[otunj]

I must have missed the query for ATL under or I decided not to take it.

Wish that was the case for me *sigh*

[b1slickguy]

damn how long on this delay..slicker?? you know

No telling. Big storm cell just parked over KC.

[Alex Vaile]

to the left of the query box, there is a drop down box where one can select a different graph

Where it says Numerical? Cool I'll give it a try

[JMon]

Where it says Numerical? Cool I'll give it a try

Cool, let me know.. My eyes are trained on numerical

[JMon]

A and line>=130 and STDSERA<=3.50 and t:conference=AL and A(Starter: o :innings pitched@o:starter and season) >6.5 and 2009<=season

team=Red Sox and 2<=o:streak and SG!=SGS and date>=20140516

Rangers winner! now come the Yankees

[bobby29]

SDQL . com has a very good manual available as a pdf if u want to learn who to decode the hieroglyphics

Thank you for the heads up. I will download it

[Alex Vaile]

Threw down a Rangers mets parlay and it cashed. Thanks for the queries guys!
Come on Yanks and cards

[Alex Vaile]

Just saw a conflicting query from killer sports that Greinke is 31 and 1 when line is -140 if there was a combined 2 to 12 runs in his last start.
starter=’Zack Greinke’ and season>=2011 and H and line<-140 and 12>=s:runs+so:runs>=2
I wish I saw this before.

[Alex Vaile]

Delay gonna blow the angels under. Now they're hitting.