Toyota Owners 400 Picks 2024: NASCAR Betting Odds & Preview for Richmond Raceway

Toyota Owners 400, the first of two races at Richmond Raceway this season, is set for Sunday, March 31, and our picks are based on the best NASCAR odds for Richmond Raceway from our best sports betting sites.

Drivers have faced six different track configurations in six weeks to open the 2024 season. They will face another track variation this week on the 0.75-mile Richmond Raceway. This race will be held in the evening for the first time since 2021 to accommodate FOX’s coverage of Week 1 of the United Football League.

Despite owning the sponsorship of this race, Toyota has won just one of the last three Spring races at Richmond. Chevrolet had two wins in that span, both from Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Kyle Busch leads all active drivers on this track with six wins in 36 career starts.  

Accompanying our updated Nascar Cup Series Championship odds, here are our Toyota Owners 400 picks for Sunday's race based on the NASCAR odds for Richmond Raceway (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Toyota Owners 400 picks 

• Favorite: Denny Hamlin +450 (via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Long shot: Brad Keselowski +1300 (via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: Joe Gibbs Racing Winning Team +100 (via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Odds to win Toyota Owners 400 2024

Odds as of Friday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Toyota Owners 400 field

All 36 charter cars will compete this week in Richmond. The three manufacturers have had two wins on this track over the last three seasons. Hendrick Motorsports has accounted for the previous two Chevrolet victories here, while Joe Gibbs Racing has claimed the last two Toyota wins. Ford has seen Stewart-Haas and RFK split their checkered flags.

Kyle Larson took control with 25 laps remaining of last season’s Spring race here and went on to win. Overall, the No. 5 car led 93 laps, second only to teammate William Byron, who led 117 circuits. Chevrolet ended the day occupying the top 3 spots on the board.

Toyota Owners 400 expert predictions

Favorite: Denny Hamlin (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Hamlin is tied with Kevin Harvick with four career wins on this track. Only one of those came in the Spring offering here. The No. 11 Camry took home the checkered flag in the first Richmond race of the 2022 season. His FedEx Toyota has 18 top-5 finishes in 34 starts in his home state. On top of that, Hamlin has led 2,226 total laps at Richmond, which puts him at the top of that list.

The veteran topped the charts in total combined speed rankings for both Richmond races last season. He also boasts the fastest total speed ranking on short, flat tracks for the last two seasons.

Teams will run this weekend’s race using the same package they used earlier this month in Phoenix. Hamlin won the pole that week and led 68 laps in the race before spinning out on a restart and settling for an 11th-place finish.

Long shot: Brad Keselowski (+1300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The last time he raced at Richmond, Keselowski led 102 of the 400 total laps, the most of any driver. He likely would have won that day had he given his pit crew a chance to shine on his final pit stop. Instead, he settled for a 6th-place finish and watched his RFK teammate Chris Buescher take home the checkered flag.

The No. 6 car was fast in both races at Richmond last season, clocking the third-fastest average in total speed rankings. In the 2023 Spring race, Keselowski salvaged a 10th-place finish after starting from the 24th position. He even managed to lead a lap in the process.

Overall, he has two career wins on this track. His last victory came in the fall race of the 2020 season. Keselowski is fourth among active drivers, with 1,280 total laps led on this circuit.

Prop: Joe Gibbs Racing Winning Team (+100 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Nine of the last 16 races at Richmond have been won by a Toyota driver. A Joe Gibbs racing driver has piloted all of them, dating back to the 2015 season when Matt Kenseth took the No. 20 car to victory lane in the fall. The last non-Gibbs Toyota to win here was Clint Bowyer. In 2012, Bowyer crossed the finish line first in his No. Michael Waltrip Camry.

Joe Gibbs drivers make up the top four favorites to win this race across most of our best sports betting sites. Toyota is also a heavy favorite to win amongst the manufacturers. Caesars is offering this prop for -120, which means grabbing it at plus money on bet365 is a much better option. The +100 odds imply a probability of 50%, and a $10 winning wager would pay out $20. 

Previous Toyota Owners 400 winners

Toyota Owners 400 race info 

• Date: Sunday, March 31 at 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, Virginia
• How to watch: FOX
• Defending winner: Kyle Larson

Toyota Owners 400 picks made Thursday at noon ET

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