Monday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Brewers Rebound From Embarrassing Losses?

Following a wild weekend of MLB action, we have 12 games on tap for Monday, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks for Monday based on the best MLB odds.

Major League Baseball has seen numerous changes in recent years, but it seems to overlook one of the most obvious improvements (OK, second-most after robot umps): the inclusion of at least one afternoon game every day.  

Monday's action doesn't begin until 6:35 p.m. ET, but it does offer an exciting matchup between World Series odds contenders, as the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles square off.

Then there's a 7:40 p.m. ET clash between two teams off to surprising starts in 2024. The underachieving Tampa Bay Rays visit the Milwaukee Brewers, who occupy first in the NL Central despite being written off following Craig Counsell's exit this past offseason.

Finally, "MV3" roll into the desert, as Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and the Los Angeles Dodgers face the Arizona Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Monday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Monday’s MLB expert picks

• Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 strikeouts (+126 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
• Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 strikeouts (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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MLB player props

Ryan Pepiot Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Rays vs. Brewers | Moneyline: Brewers (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET

Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot is becoming a familiar name in these articles, as this is the third time we're targeting his strikeouts Under across his last three starts. He burned us while going Over on the hook against the Los Angeles Angels, but we earned our revenge in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. Now, this is the grudge match.

Pepiot has been impressive during his first season with the Rays. He owns a 3.77 ERA and is striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings. However, he's walking 3.14 per nine and has posted a .215 BABIP that's due for serious regression.

The Milwaukee Brewers possess all the tools to get to Pepiot on Monday. They own the league's sixth-best walk rate and sixth-highest wRC+. Milwaukee is also around the middle of the pack in strikeout rate.

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Pepiot is projected to record just 5.32 strikeouts on Monday, based on the average projection from three of our trusted models. Therefore, if you want to play the Under at one of our best sports betting sites with the total set at 6.5, you'll get a more significant cushion. However, this is the higher EV play.

bet365's -150 odds on Under 6.5 provide us with around 18% positive expected value, while we're getting roughly 27% +EV through these +126 odds at FanDuel. 

Best odds: +126 via FanDuel

Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Nationals vs. Marlins | Moneyline: Marlins (-140 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET

Miami Marlins left-hander Trevor Rogers is looking to bounce back during 2024 following a 2023 campaign in which he logged just 18 innings. He's been solid through five starts, striking out fewer than five batters only twice. His 4.10 ERA is slightly inflated, too, as a BABIP of .353 and strand rate of 64.8% are likely to positively regress.

Now Rogers faces a Washington Nationals team on Monday that's striking out far more often in 2024 (21.9%) than it did in 2023 (18.9%). 

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Rogers is projected to record 5.44 punchouts on Monday, nearly half a strikeout more than he needs to clear this total. As a result, we're getting around 44% +EV on this bet.

My only hang-up on this pick - and why it's just three stars rather than four - is that we've yet to see this price move at our other best sports betting apps or Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry. It'll be one I track throughout the day, but it definitely makes for a solid three-star play right now, too.

Best odds: +130 via bet365

Grayson Rodriguez Over 5.5 strikeouts  ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Yankees vs. Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-120 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-135)/Under 8.5 (+110) via Betway | Start time: 6:35 p.m. ET

Baltimore Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez took his first misstep of the 2024 campaign in his last start, allowing seven runs on 11 hits over only 4 1/3 innings against the Angels. However, he still managed to record seven strikeouts, and he's now gone Over this total in four of his five starts during 2024.

Unfortunately after that tough outing, he now faces a New York Yankees team on Monday that doesn't strike out as much as you'd expect for a squad that's fairly reliant on the three true outcomes (home run, walk, or strikeout).

However, New York's skill set is likely working in our favor, as Rodriguez's strikeouts prop has regularly traded at 6.5 in 2024. Rodriguez is projected to record 6.24 punchouts on Monday, which means we'd usually ignore him at his standard total. But we're seeing value on Over 5.5 strikeouts.

To be more specific, we're getting just better than 15.5% +EV on this bet through FanDuel's -104 odds, which are far longer than anything else offered at our other best sportsbooks. Additionally, Pinnacle is already trading at -126 after opening at -109.

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel

MLB player props made Monday at 8 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
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• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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