Saturday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Perez Continue Raking?
Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate is loaded with 15 games played in three different countries, and we offer our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Baseball fans across North America can go to watch MLB action on Saturday, with three different countries hosting action.
The day kicked off with the Toronto Blue Jays at home against the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers.
In addition to the usual action across the United States, MLB also plays its first Mexico City Series game of the season on Saturday. The Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies meet at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu, with first pitch expected for 6:05 p.m. ET.
With five of the six division races separated by 2 1/2 games or fewer between first and second place, this weekend’s contests have early added importance.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Saturday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday’s MLB expert picks
- Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 total bases (+145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Salvador Perez Over 0.5 RBIs (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Aaron Civale to record a win (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 strikeouts (+102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Paul Goldschmidt Under 0.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 0.5 total bases (+140) | OFF | OFF | Under 0.5 total bases (+133) | Under 0.5 total bases (+145) |
Game info: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets | Moneyline: Cardinals (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Paul Goldschmidt won the NL MVP Award two years ago, and though he led the league in slugging, OPS, and OPS+ that year, those numbers are down significantly since then.
Goldschmidt entered Friday slugging .278 with a .572 OPS, and just three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. However, he's recorded two multi-hit games this week and at least one base hit in four of the previous five contests.
The first baseman has had great success against Adrian Houser (8-for-28 with three home runs and a .930 OPS) throughout his career, but this four-star wager is more of a reflection of his declining numbers at age 36.
Best odds: +145 via bet365
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Salvador Perez Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 0.5 RBIs (+125) | Over 0.5 RBIs (+125) | Over 0.5 RBIs (+130) | Over 0.5 RBIs (+118) | Over 0.5 RBIs (+135) |
Game info: Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers | Moneyline: Tigers (-120 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway | Start time: 6:10 p.m. ET
The Kansas City Royals improved their playoff chances from 13.2% in the preseason to 30.2% entering Friday (per FanGraphs’ playoff odds), in large part because of Salvador Perez’s torrid start.
Perez’s .352 batting average, seven home runs, 25 RBIs, and 1.036 OPS all rank top five in the majors, and his 25 RBIs entering Friday led the AL.
He and teammate Bobby Witt Jr. rank in the top seven among all position players in WAR, and we are making this a four-star play, as Perez has a career 1.032 OPS in 18 career at-bats against Casey Mize.
Best odds: +135 via bet365
Aaron Civale to record a win ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | -110 | OFF | OFF | -109 | -110 |
Game info: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox | Moneyline: Rays (-225 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Chicago White Sox are on pace for 137 losses this season, making the opposing pitcher a solid bet to record a win on a daily basis. The winning team’s starting pitcher has earned the victory in 15 of Chicago’s 22 losses this season, and Aaron Civale has a great chance to do so on Saturday.
Civale has made quality starts in three of five appearances this season and leads the team’s starting pitchers in K/9 (10.1) and pitches per start (91.2). That has us confident he will throw the required minimum of five innings to record a win, and that his offense will provide him plenty of run support before exiting.
Best odds: -109 via Caesars
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Yusei Kikuchi Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-170) | Under 5.5 (+102) | OFF | Under 6.5 (-166) | Under 6.5 (-155) |
Game info: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline: Dodgers (-160 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-110)/Under 7.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 3:07 p.m. ET
Yusei Kikuchi ranks in the top 12 of all starting pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings (10.73) and has the fourth-lowest BABIP (.294) among all those inside the top 12 in strikeout rate. However, he also has the fourth-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.13) among those pitchers, which could get him into trouble quickly against a powerful Dodgers lineup.
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Kikuchi has allowed a .292/.352/.576 slash line in 65 at-bats to current Dodgers hitters, and Los Angeles strikes out at the 10-lowest rate (20.6%) against southpaws. His first five starts have come against teams that entered Friday .500 or better, but he recorded four strikeouts in two of those starts, and this should be another similarly frustrating outing.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering an O/U of 5.5 strikeouts, but we find better value with the plus-money odds on the lower total than the steep prices at 6.5.
Best odds: +102 via FanDuel
MLB player props made Saturday at 6:47 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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