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Originally Posted by bernardoGui
[ 1 - 3 ( -2.08 u.) ]
Will post the balance from Malmö FF - IFK Göteborg and an updated record in continuance below..
PLAYS A' PENDING
- MONDAY -
Aug. 11th 2014
Icelandic 'Pepsideild'
Stjarnan vs. Thor Akureyri
5. Stjarnan to win 1st half @ -125 x 0.625 u.
Danish 'Superliga'
Esbjerg FB vs. Silkeborg IF
6. Esbjerg -1 AH @ +135 x 0.4 u.
Revenge of the Mystics!
SUNDAY AUG. 10th 2014
Swedish 'Allsvenskan', revisited.
Malmö FF vs. IFK Göteborg - final result: 2 - 2 / (1-0)
Unfortunately some quite valuable picks were scratched, due to a certain uncertainty surrounding IFK and their immediate form. But the spell was lifted from upon IFK this Sunday afternoon and the IFK goal drought is now only a vague memory. Judging from the way they played, I don't think it's a memory that'll stick. IFK are now holding #6 with 4 points less than #3 and #4 and 1 match more in the book.. A lot better, still not good enough.
All in all, a lot of self-confidence were regained this afternoon, both in and around IFK Göteborg as well as in the mind of this humble bettor.
Malmö FF vs. IFK Göteborg
1. 'BTTS' @ -125 x 0.625 u. ( +0.5 u.).
2. 'Over 2.5 goals' @ -105 x 0.55 u. ( +0.52 u.).
3. 'Lasse Vibe to score at any time..' @ +175 x 0.45 u. ( +0.8 u.).
4. 'Markus Rosenberg to score at any time..' @ +155 x 0.55 ( +0.78 u.).
Sub total record: 4 - 0 ( +2.6 u.).
Deficit from previous four picks of the day : 1 - 3 ( -2.08).
bernardoGui's Footy record: 21 - 24 - 5 ( -3.54 u.)
GOOD NIGHT & GOOD LUCK !
Last edited by bernardoGui; 08-10-14 at 07:46 PM.
Aug. 11th 2014 - FINAL RESULTS
Icelandic 'Pepsideild'
Stjarnan vs. Thor Akureyri - final: 2 - 1 / (1-0).
5. Stjarnan to win 1st half @ -125 x 0.625 u. ( +0.5 u.)
Danish 'Superliga'
Esbjerg FB vs. Silkeborg IF - final: 0 - 0 / (0-0).
6. Esbjerg -1 AH @ +135 x 0.4 u. ( -0.4 u.)
[ 1-1 ( +0.1 u.)]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 22 - 25 - 5 ( -3.44 u.)
Leicester City Future - revisited
17 clean sheets in 46 matches is 36.96% - Outstanding. Obviously PRL is at a different level than the Championship but on the other hand, I think that the 'Clean sheet' stat says as much about the defensive formation as a whole than about the keeper alone.
I'm sure you have noticed already.. I've been a tad stressed for the latest week or so. Too many bad picks and a few unfocused mistakes.
Once again I apologize for the confusion.
Last edited by bernardoGui; 08-12-14 at 07:38 PM.
England - Capital One Cup
Tuesday, Aug. 12th 2014
Capitol One Cup (England)
1. Crawley Town vs. Ipswich (20.45 CET)
- Ipswich 'DNB' @ -125 x 1.25 u.
2. Tranmere vs. Nottingham Forest (20.45 CET)
- Nottingham Forest -1 AH @ +107.5 x. 0.5 u.
G L .
2 x PUSH.
From Scandinavia to Cyprus And Back Again
Wednesday, Aug. 13th 2014
Swedish 'Allsvenskan'
1. Brommapojkarna vs. Gefle
- Gefle 'DNB' @ +110 x 0.45 u.
2. Åtvidabergs vs. IFK Göteborg
- IFK Göteborg(ML) @ +110 x 0.95 u.
Cypriot Super Cup
3. APOEL Nicosia vs. Ermis Aradippou
- Half with most goals by AWAY team (Ermis A.) - 1st Half @ +400 x 0.25 u.
Finnish 'Veikkausliga'
4. HJK Helsinki vs. Inter Turku
- HJK -1.5 @ +105 x 0.5 u.
- 'Over 2.5 goals total @ -125 x 1.25 u.
GOOD NIGHT & GOOD LUCK !
IFK Göteborg - since Sunday..
..the Swedish club has signed a loan agreement, regarding yet another Dane - Kenneth Zohore. Zohore is 'owned' by Italian club Fiorientina, but he was also out on loan for the most part of last season. The 20-year-old striker is very physical, good at holding on to the ball and thus a good passing station for the other attackers to rely on, in their raids forward. IFK now has three Danes in their sguad. Lasse Vibe, Søren Rieks and Kenneth Zohore. All three are in the squad, which travelled to the Eastern part of Sweden yesterday, taking on Åtvidabergs this CET-evening at 19:00.
Injuries, suspensions and probable exits:
Gustav Svensson, Philip Haglund and Hampus Zackrisson are all injured for today's match.
Sam Larsson has gone to Herenveen in Holland where he now awaits the obligatory medical check and will look to sign with the club withn the next couple of days.
IFK Squad - Aug. 13th 2014:
John Alvbåge, Marcus Sandberg, Emil Salomonsson, Adam Johansson, Mattias Bjärsmyr, Patrick Dyrestam, Hjalmar Jonsson, Billy Nordström, Ludwig Augustinsson, Martin Smedberg–Dalence, May Mahlangu, Jakob Johansson, Joel Allansson, Karl Bohm, Sören Rieks, Lasse Vibe, Gustav Engvall, Robin Söder, Kenneth Zohore.
[ 2-3 (-1.42 u.)]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 24 - 28 - 7 ( -4.86 u.)
Thursday, Aug. 14th 2014
Swedish 'Allsvenskan'
Halmstad vs. Häcken
1. Häcken 'DNB' @ -164.
Danish 'Nordicbet Liga'
HB Køge vs. AGF
2. AGF 'DNB' @ -175.
PARLAY: 1 unit x +153.
G L .
Hey Bernardo,
I recently got really into the Danish league this year and am starting to watch some Swedish leagues as well. I really enjoy your thread and the analysis you provide for the reasoning behind your picks. Keep up the good work.
I wanted to get your opinion on the Elfsborg game today. I already laid a bet on them to win, just wanted your thoughts.
Hey !
Thank You for the kind words. You're welcome..
With regards to Elfsborg, I was also tempted, but felt unsure about their focus on the match today vs. UEFA play off next week. Their squad isn't that deep and they simply have to economize. Helsingborg is not an easy place to be the away team either and they are considered one of the top clubs in Sweden. They have disappointed this season though and have drawed the latest 5 matches (home and away). Honestly, I figured they were up for a home victory today.
2-0 after 11 minutes.. and I know this seems like an 'easy' answer ! Game isn't over yet and I wish You the best of luck!
Please feel free to communicate in this thread.
Catch You on the flipside !
But with 10 vs. 11 top motivated home players, it's not going to be easy for Elfsborg to come back..
[ 1-0-1 (+0.61 u.)]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 25 - 28 - 8 ( -4.25 u.)
Good picks yesterday berny, I probably should have waited to get your input before I laid my bets. Although I made the same mistake already today, as I took Midtj DNB vs. FCK. What are your opinions on the game?
I read that FCK is banged up and I know they have a mid-week game for Champs qualies to worry about. Also Midtj has had a great start to the season, while FCK laid an egg against Hobro last week.
Hey.
I haven't made any plays today, as I'm working on a few for Sat., Sun. and Monday. I'll post them as soon as possible.. I think You might be on to something today though and I wish You the best of luck..
Have a good evening and let's catch up later
SCANDINAVIA
- Aug. 16th 2014 -
Danish Superliga
Aab vs. Esbjerg FB - 18:00 CET.
1. 'A.K. Jacobsen to score at least 1 goal in the match' @ +170 x 0.5 u.
2 'N. Helenius to score at least 1 goal in the match' @ +170 x 0.5 u.
Swedish Allsvenskan
Gefle vs. Malmö FF - 16:00 CET.
1. Malmö FF (ML) @ EV x 1.5 u.
2. 'Will Gefle score at least 1 goal in the match?' NO @ +170 x 0.425 u.
BOTH Malmö FF and Aab will engage in the Champions League Play offs next week. Malmö FF @ Salzburg on Tuesday and AAB at home vs. APOEL Nicosia on Wednesday.
Aab haven't had a very good start in the Superliga this season. Simply scoring too few goals. On the other hand, AAB showed what they are capable of away vs. Dinamo Zagreb. In any event, they need to practice their attacking formations tomorrow for two reasons: 1) They need at least 1 or 2 goals on Wednesday in order to gain the upper hand in the 2nd leg match the week after. 2) Though FC Copenhagen 'lost' 3 points in the national league today, they lost them to another serious AAB-league-table-rival: FC Midtlylland. In order to hang on in the top of the national league, AAB need a win today. That takes at least 1 goal and in my opinion the most likely goalscorers are the ones mentioned.
Depending on possible squad news, line ups and line developments, I might tamper with some totals laters..
Have a good one !
Good call, by the way..
If you're not already aware of it, FC Midtjylland will be contesting in the Europa League on the coming Thursday. They will travel to Greece and face Panathinaikos. I know that the FCM squad is very confident with themselves as a team and yesterday's result has only confirmed this sentiment. Most importantly in their own heads.
I see the Pan.(ML) @ abouts -138, at the moment, but I am actually contemplating a small wager on FCM. (ML) @ +333. Marginally larger on the FCM 'DNB' @ +240.
Any prediction on who wins the AAB game?
When You posted Your question the Aab (ML) was @ +150. Now, it's @bouts +165..
News on the squads!
Aab squad:
1 Nicolai Larsen, 2 Patrick Kristensen, 5 Kenneth Emil Petersen, 7 Thomas Enevoldsen, 8 Rasmus Würtz, 9 Thomas Augustinussen, 11 Nicklas Helenius, 14 Mathias Wichmann, 16 Mathias Thrane, 18 Anders K. Jacobsen, 20 Henrik Dalsgaard, 21 Kasper Risgård, 22 Carsten Christensen, 25 Frederik Børsting, 28 Viktor Ahlmann, 30 Andreas Bruhn, 31 Jakob Blåbjerg and 32 Kasper Pedersen.
(Injuries: Nicolaj Thomsen, Rasmus Thelander, Jakob Ahlmann, Rasmus Jönsson, Lukas Spalvis, Søren Frederiksen and Gilli Sørensen).
Esbjerg FB squad:
30. Martin Dúbravka, 16. Jeppe Højbjerg, 3. Daniel Stenderup, 4. Eddi Gomes, 6. Magnus Lekven, 8. Jeppe Andersen, 9. Mick van Buren, 10. Emil Lyng, 11. Lasse Rise, 15. Ryan Johnson Laursen, 17. Casper Nielsen, 19. Jakob Ankersen, 20. Hans Henrik Andreasen, 22. Mohammed Fellah, 23. Jonas Knudsen, 31. Jesper Rasmussen, 32. Martin Pusic and 33. Jens Berthel Askou.
With former Aab player Michael Jakobsen out of the picture for today's away match, EFB have had to make some adjustments in their defensive line. Daniel Stenderup is expected to replace Jakobsen and to say it the least, Stenderup is not the optimal substitute.. As for Esbjerg, I've also underlined J.B.Askou, who is also new in this squad (13 matches total in a year).
On the other hand, Aab are missing their central defenseman: Rasmus Thelander, and with left back Jakob Ahlmann injured as well, the Aalborg defense is also troubled. With a lot of very good offensive players in both squads, this match will be won midfield.. Potentially with a +2 margin. But it's actually quite hard to predict this probable midfield battle, because We are about to watch two of the five best midfield players in the Danish Superliga. H.H. Andreasen of Esbjerg and Rasmus Würtz of Aab.
I predict that Würtz will win this battle. With a gun to my head, I would also consider the over 3 AH @ +150.
ENJOY & G L .
Last edited by bernardoGui; 08-16-14 at 12:02 PM.
Aab vs. Esbjerg FB
1. Aab 'DNB' @ -117 x 1.17 u.
Shazam !
Aab vs. Esbjerg FB - final result: 1 - 1 / (1-0).
1. 'A.K. Jacobsen to score at least 1 goal in the match' @ +170 x 0.5 u. ( -0.5 u.).
2 'N. Helenius to score at least 1 goal in the match' @ +170 x 0.5 u. ( -0.5 u.).
3. Aab 'DNB' @ -117 x 1.17 u. (Push)
Gefle vs. Malmö FF - final result: 0 - 0.
1. Malmö FF (ML) @ EV x 1.5 u. ( -1.5 u.)
2. 'Will Gefle score at least 1 goal in the match?' NO @ +170 x 0.425 u. ( + 0.72 u.).
[ 1 - 3 - 1 ( -1.78 u.) ]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 26 - 31 - 9 ( -6.03 u.)
Last edited by bernardoGui; 08-17-14 at 08:27 AM.
Leicester City FC - Future - round 1
Leicester FC vs. Everton FC
final result: 2 -2 / (1-2).
1 point / goal diff. 2-2 / 1 match played of 38.
Brazil!
'Campeonato Brasileiro'
- Aug. 17th 2014 -
Figueirense vs. Atletico Mineiro
1. 'Over 2.5 goals in the match' @ +110 x 2 u.
2. 'Atletico Mineiro -1 AH @ +255 @ +255 x 1 u.
GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK !
Campeonato Brasileiro'
- Aug. 17th 2014 -
* Figueirense vs. Atletico Mineiro - final result: 2 - 2 / (1-1).
1. 'Over 2.5 goals in the match' @ +110 x 2 u. ( +2.2 u.)
2. 'Atletico Mineiro -1 AH @ +255 @ +255 x 1 u. ( -1 u.)
[ 1-1 ( +1.2 u.) ]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 27 - 32 - 9 ( -4.83 u.)
Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 06-18-15 at 11:04 AM. Reason: image does not exist
@ Home / Back in Scandinavia !
- Monday Aug. 18th 2014 -
Preliminary features
Swedish 'Allsvenskan'
BK Häcken vs. Helsingborgs IF
I will be monitoring the prizes on the Helsingborg(ML) as well as the 'DNB'.. At the moment, the ML is @ +300 and the 'DNB' @ +200. It might be worth a shot, as I think Häcken have performed marginally above level so far this season, whereas I think Helsingborg have performed way worse than one would have expected..
In the latest round, Helsingborg showed some teeth @ home, giving Elfsborg a proper 4-1 beating. According to their club www, the squad from that match is intact, and according to the various media around the club, the players are showing a growth in both confidence and fitness on the training ground, these last few days..
Djurgården vs. Mjällby
Djurgården haven't won a match in five straight. Though they showed some defensive character and made a 1-1 draw in the derby vs. AIK Stockholm five days ago, they can 'only' claim an immediate #7 spot in the league with 24 points in 19 matches. The goal difference is +4 positive though / 28:24.
Mjällby is placed within the bottom 3 teams of the table. 18 points in 19 matches; -9 / 20:29.
Considering Djurgården -1 AH @ EV; still leaning though, as I'm aware that they've conceded an average of 1 goal pr. match so far. In following this logic, the 'BTTS' @ -125 is also quite suggestive..
Danish 'Superliga'
Hobro IK vs. FC Nordsjælland
Up Comer Hobro is another Scandinavian underdog, performing extraordinarily well at the moment. Beating the lions of FC Copenhagen 3-0 away in the latest round, speaks for itself!
The question is if they are able to keep up the good work vs. another well established club, which is playing better and better by the round? Prize is dropping on the Hobro(ML)..
- Aug. 18th 2014 -
Swedish 'Allsvenskan'
BK Häcken vs. Helsingborgs IF
Squad news..
BK HÄCKEN
Injuries and suspensions: Central Defender Walid Atta is suspended and as such he is the most remarkable absentee tonight. Atta has been a valuable part of the Häcken defense this season, and one of the few Häcken players with some international experience. He is 27 years old an he has many A-level seasons in the bank for AIK Stockholm, for tonight's opponent HIF and for BK Häcken. Tonight Häcken will probably start the game with two somewhat inexperienced central defenders - Emil Wahlström and Simon Sandberg - haven't played together in the central defense since May.
Ivo Pekalski and Fredrik Björck are out with injuries.
Squad for the match: Källqvist, Abrahamsson, Wahlström, Sandberg, Zuta, Arkivuo, Frölund, Mukiibi, Anklev, Ohlsson, Simon G, Samuel G, Ericsson, Nasiru, Donkor, Makondele, Lewicki, Thorvaldsson, Jeremejeff and Strandberg.
HELSINGBORGS IF
Injuries: Fredrik Widlund and Andreas Landgren .
Squad for the match: Johan Mårtensson, Mattias Lindström, Victor Pálsson, Álvaro Santos, Arnór Smárason, Markus Holgersson, Emil Krafth, Mikael Dahlberg, Jordan Larsson, Darijan Bojanic, Emmanuel Boateng, Christoffer Andersson, Andreas Linde, David Accam, Peter Larsson, Jere Uronen, Jesper Björkman, Pär Hansson.
The squad is intact from the 4-1 home win vs. Elfsborg in the latest round.
1. Helsingborgs IF 'DNB' @ +175 x 1.25 u.
2. 'Over 3 goals AH' @ + 103 x 0.5 u.
3. Final result: 2 - 2 @ +1100 x 0.25 u.
4. Draw @ +260 x 0.75 u.
GOOD EVENING AND GOOD LUCK !
With regards to Hobro IK, I've cynically decided that it's time for a fade wager against them. The prizes won't get much better than now I reckon!
Looking at the opponent's start formation (4-3-3) and the 11 starters, it looks like a steep mountain for Hobro to climb.
http://www.resultat.dk/kamp/4SmKfthn/#opstilling;1
If not tonight, they will probably loose 2 of their next 3 matches and there should be som value in fading them for the next 5 or so.. I'll take one round at the time..
Hobro IK vs. FC Nordsjælland
1. FC Nordsjælland (ML) @ +120 x 2.1 u.
G L .
LAST MINUTE PARLAY
1. Burnley vs. Chelsea - Chelsea(ML) @ -250 / 1.40
X
2. Breidablik vs. Fram - Breidablik(ML) @ -200 / 1.50
Total: +110 x 1 u.
Good Luck !
Hobro IK vs. FC Nordsjælland - final result: 0 - 0.
1. FC Nordsjælland (ML) @ +120 x 2.1 u. ( -2.1 u.)
Once again, Up Comers Hobro IK chose to cynically endure their opponents.. Keeping a clean sheet, but not scoring either, the 'Part Time Professionals' of the Danish Countryside made another decent run in our nation's best league this evening.
FCN dominated the match though, handling the ball fairly well and created the chances to score at least a couple of goals.. Not sharp enough in front of them, unfortunately.
I will forgive Hobro for this minor upset in the restoration of my profit margin, but I will make shure not to forget it..
Maybe I was too fast when I stated that they'll loose 2 of the next 3, but I'd still say 2 in the next 4.. Dependimg on player/squad fitness and a lot of other things of course; but the fact that they are actually 'Part Time Professionals', going to work other jobs on most week days, does not speak in their favor for a long term run at a fairly high competitive level. When You add, that Hobro IK has only very little depth on the bench, they are almost naturally bound to loose their breathe..
Hobro schedule - next 4 rounds:
1. [Sept. 1st] Hobro IK vs. FC Vestsjælland
2. [Sept. 15th] SønderjyskE vs. Hobro IK
3. [Sept. 21st] Hobro IK vs. Esbjerg FB
4. [Sept. 28th] Silkeborg IF vs. Hobro IK
[ 1 - 2 - 1 ( +1.2 u.) ]
1. Burnley vs. Chelsea - Chelsea(ML) @ -250
final result: 1 - 3 / (1-3). WIN
2. Breidablik vs. Fram - Breidablik(ML) @ -200
final result: 3 - 0 / (0-0). WIN
[ 2 - 0 ( +1.1 u.) ]
Picking up the Pieces..
Aug. 18th 2014
DANISH 'SUPERLIGA'
Hobro IK vs. FC Nordsjælland - final result: 0 - 0.
1. FC Nordsjælland (ML) @ +120 x 2.1 u.
[ 0 - 1 ( -2.1 u.) ]
Aug. 18th 2014
SWEDISH 'ALLSVENSKAN'
BK Häcken vs. Helsingborgs IF - final result: 1 - 1 / (0-1)
1. Helsingborgs IF 'DNB' @ +175 x 1.25 u. (Push)
2. 'Over 3 goals AH' @ + 103 x 0.5 u. ( -0.5 u.)
3. Final result: 2 - 2 @ +1100 x 0.25 u. ( -0.25 u.)
4. Draw @ +260 x 0.75 u. ( +1.95 u.)
[ 1 - 2 - 1 ( +1.2 u.) ]
Aug. 18th 2014
LAST MINUTE PARLAY !
1. Burnley vs. Chelsea - Chelsea(ML) @ -250
final result: 1 - 3 / (1-3). WIN
2. Breidablik vs. Fram - Breidablik(ML) @ -200
final result: 3 - 0 / (0-0). WIN
[ 2 - 0 ( +1.1 u.) ]
Aug. 18th 2014 - [ 3 - 3 - 1 ( +0.2 u.) ]
bernardoGui's Footy record: 30 - 35 - 10 ( -4.63 u.)
good parlay today
Thanks. Always a good thing with a couple of sleeved tricks, when c@nts f@ck up !
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