NRL Regular Season 2012
1/3/12
Play #1
Knights vs Dragons OVER 34.5 @ $1.90
I think a lot of 'sharps' will be on the under for this game - two defensive teams, possible wet weather and grudge match that looks like it could be an arm wrestle. However, I believe the total is set too low for this game and 34 points shouldn't be too much of a stretch for these two sides at (almost) full strength. Knights and Dragons are traditionally strong 'unders' but I think they're being a little over valued here - it's round 1 and these teams are untested and like most trial matches I think this could blowout. Analysing Round 1 totals for the past few years, on average it's the 'overs' plays that have the edge. Based on the forgoing and my model which predicts a total of 38pts I'm locking in the OVER.
Dragons had plenty of no try calls in the Charity Shield last fortnight, let's hope tonight the Knights and Dragons nail the points. If the rain stays away (which looks likely) we should be even better placed to hit the total.
GL
Play #2
Knights vs Dragons +6.5 @ $1.65
If the Knights take the match tonight I think it'll be close and they'll just scrape over the line. The model I'm working off has the Knights by 1 point. The hype and pressure on Newcastle is incredible, especially for a team that Wayne Bennett described as "disappointing" during the trials. A draw against the Panthers and a late win against the Sharks is not exactly setting the world on fire. The 'Wayne Bennett factor' will take more than 1 round to play out and don't forget he's facing off against a man he helped mentor. The Dragons have been playing a Wayne Bennett style for years, for the Knights it's game 1 in the NRL.
Taking away the 'hype' I think the Dragons have a good shot at winning the game and it'll be close.. I'm locking in the Dragons +6.5
GL tonight