1. 03-05-12 01:44 AM #36
    That Guy
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    Round 1
    Play #11

    Rabbitohs ML vs Roosters 5x @ 1.67
    After a shocking start to the NRL season I'm making a play on the Rabbitohs in front of a big crowd.
    With Anasta pulling out last minute this game swings heavily in favour of Souths.
    Hoping to re-gain some of the lost ground over the past few days. GL


    Play #12

    Rabbitohs vs Roosters OVER 36.5 5x 1.80
    This is the 'OVER of the round' so to speak - all stats that I have available point to this game going over 36 points. Traditonally it's a high scoring game and even with rock solid defense under the new Rabbitohs coach I think the points will still flow. Out of all the plays this week this is the one I'm most confident on.
    I hope the variance is in favour for tonight's match.

    GL
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  2. 03-05-12 04:55 AM #37
    That Guy
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    Copped a beating in Round 1 with some unbelievable games..
    Holding off on plays unless they are extremely solid and backed up by modeling.

    NRL Season 2012 3-10
    Not a pretty sight but not aiming to make money in one round.. in it for the season.
    No model or experienced tipper could have predicted Round 1. Look forward to another week of footy and expect modelling to improve as the weeks roll on.
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  3. 03-05-12 05:25 AM #38
    benrama
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    Yep - crazy first week of footy. Modelling doesn't work until at least round 5 onward anyways, teams change too much in the offseason. Don't go chasing, I don't know what you're bet sizing is, but if 5X is 5 Units and units are 2-3% bankroll you're in for trouble betting that large on early rounds of any league. Discipline mate, discipline!

    Let's get 'em next week.
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  4. 03-05-12 06:14 PM #39
    hjrozay
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    Hey Buddy i'm enjoying this thread with your writes up, similar style to LTA on these forums. I hope you have a good season. I'm pretty sure that Cowboys game burnt alot of people.
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  5. 03-06-12 01:28 AM #40
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
    Yep - crazy first week of footy. Modelling doesn't work until at least round 5 onward anyways, teams change too much in the offseason. Don't go chasing, I don't know what you're bet sizing is, but if 5X is 5 Units and units are 2-3% bankroll you're in for trouble betting that large on early rounds of any league. Discipline mate, discipline!

    Let's get 'em next week.
    cheers mate - appreciate your thoughts.
    Unlucky not to get the double win on Rabbitohs last night but you're right - discipline is the key.
    The best play is sometimes the one you don't make.
    An ugly Round 1 down and plenty more to come.. using Sportsbet I was able to get refunds with their "team is leading with 10mins to go and you lose" money back promotion. Which isn't accounted for in my plays above.

    GL

    What are you liking for this week?

    Think the Tigers might be a little overvalued against Manly at home. also keeping my eye on Raiders line against Titans
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  6. 03-07-12 06:04 AM #41
    benrama
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    All good mate - and yea unlucky on those Rabbits. I usually stay away from round 1 but made some small plays this weekend - didn't turn out well as usual. What's that insanity definition again!

    That sportsbet promotion is quite handy actually, it gives some extra hedge opportunities too. If games keep up ending close like they have done I think I'm going to have to look at using that book again - I've reverted back to Centrebet more lately.

    I agree Tigers are over-valued, Manly is not at Brookvale but being underdogs? The Tigers are my "2nd team", but they are so unpredictable - I think they gave up a lot with the Blair transaction - and they should never be favourites in this spot IMO.

    Too many people starting to like the Raiders though ... never ends up well.

    Saints look like my favourite play of the weekend. Will be playing them in at least one multi maybe more.
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  7. 03-07-12 07:41 AM #42
    That Guy
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    NRL Season 2012 3-10

    Round 2
    Play #1

    Manly ML vs Tigers 2x @ 2.08
    An early lock but I think this play is full of value early on and I'm not too concerned if Foran ends up being ruled out late on Friday.
    Foran should play and Manly has enough depth to get by without Matai & Stewart. Dean Whare is a strong replacement who goes well against teams that like to throw it around like the Tigers - scoring 3 tries against the Cowboys last year.
    The loss of Keith Galloway is a big plus for Manly and will hopefully allow their front row to dominate, giving Cherry-Evans some room to move. The inexperience of Matt Groat and Aaron Woods are up against Manly's Jason King & Brent Kite.
    If the Tigers had lost last week against the Sharks they would be underdogs in this game. They just snuck away with a win in front of vocal home crowd and they won't have that advantage this week. There will probably be more Tigers supporters at Gosford but not enough to be an advantage.
    Benji is the danger man and is the risk with this play, but I think the premiership favourites need to prove their worth before they get great odds against last year's champions. Manly have had a great lead up playing tough opponents in the Warriors and Leeds. Tigers haven't had this luxury and I think they'll stumble in a close one.
    I'm getting in early to lock in Manly ML in what should be a great match.

    GL
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  8. 03-07-12 08:34 AM #43
    kingsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post

    Too many people starting to like the Raiders though ... never ends up well.
    I can't see many but You and I liking Raiders. Most review sites are favouring Titans at home. Raiders have drifted a little in price too.

    I absolutely love the Raiders chances this weekend, and with those odds is very hard to pass up.
    Last edited by kingsr; 03-07-12 at 08:38 AM.
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  9. 03-07-12 05:14 PM #44
    benrama
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    True, true - I was more meaning when I see a lot of covers people on them. Even though Raiders lost to Storm in a game they could have easily won, the pressure will have increased on Furner, and he'll be getting the guys to give 110%.
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  10. 03-07-12 05:29 PM #45
    hawley
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    The Titans had a solid win but given how bad the Cowboys were they should of put 30+ on them, the fact they managed 3 tries is more telling to the overall quality of the side.

    The teams are actually quite similar for me, two strong forward packs, similar set up in the halves with an experienced player paired with a younger one and backs featuring some talent mixed with mediocrity.

    The difference maker for me is Dugan. He had no chance to showcase his talent in the rain last weekend but he is capable of blowing this game open, more so than Zillman even Idris.
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  11. 03-07-12 08:33 PM #46
    kingsr
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    Yep Titans may be good for 2 tries this weekend, if that! They only manged 3 against a team who completed 8/39 sets! Raiders are good for at least 3 or 4.

    My only minor concern is their away form. But I feel they are up for it this year!
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  12. 03-07-12 08:41 PM #47
    brettels
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    Titans win! Jamal is a champ and his inclusion will be the difference, they look much better this year!
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  13. 03-07-12 08:42 PM #48
    hawley
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    Jamal is garbage.
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  14. 03-07-12 08:57 PM #49
    kingsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawley View Post
    Jamal is garbage.

    AMEN! Overpayed donkey.
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  15. 03-07-12 08:59 PM #50
    kingsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by brettels View Post
    Titans win! Jamal is a champ and his inclusion will be the difference, they look much better this year!
    Really? Much better? DId you see the under 8s team they played against? My granfathers footy team would have beaten Nth Qld. They'd make any team LOOK GOOD, they way they played. And any other team in the comp would have put at least 5-6 tries on them.

    Gold Coast are a bottom 4 team for mine.
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  16. 03-07-12 08:59 PM #51
    hawley
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    I think he actually has a huge ceiling but to date he has done nothing special to justify the hype.

    I think part of it comes down to the role he is used in but he is nothing special IMO
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  17. 03-07-12 09:05 PM #52
    kingsr
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    Yep, I can rattle of 10 centres who are paid much less but are much better players. Bulldogs made Titans pay a premium for him
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  18. 03-09-12 02:33 AM #53
    That Guy
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    Round 2
    Play #2

    Brisbane vs Cowboys OVER 36.5 1x 1.80
    These two sides hit the OVER more than 75% of the time when they play each other. Even though Lockyer is gone this year and the Cowboys had a horror start to the year, they're still effectively playing the same style of football. If they throw it around and the Cowboys turn up for this match it'll hit 36 points plus easily.
    The Cowboys performance last week helps with the over because after a scoreless game last week they'll be pumped to put some points on the board. No injury worries or last minute changes mean I'm playing this for 1x.
    Good luck in Round 2 tonight. Hopefully we see more stability than last week and cash a few plays
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  19. 03-09-12 05:17 AM #54
    Sol
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    2-0 for the night, well done man.
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  20. 03-09-12 06:17 AM #55
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sol View Post
    2-0 for the night, well done man.
    Cheers mate.. pushing on to cash a few more plays this weekend.
    GL
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  21. 03-09-12 06:51 AM #56
    That Guy
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    NRL Season 2012 5-10 -5.39units
    2-0 for the night. Great to nail 3 units straight up after a tough Round 1.

    Adding a 1 more play for tomorrow.


    Play #3
    Titans vs Raiders +2.5 1x 1.92
    I don't think we got a true indication of both sides last week. The wooden spoon favourites the Titans played a Cowboys team that barely turned up (an Under 9's side could have beaten them), Raiders were unlucky to be beaten in the final minutes by the Storm in torrential rain. With fine conditions forecast this weekend we should see the Raiders back line fire and outclass the Titans. Terry Campese gives the side multiple attacking options from five eighth and Fensom should dominate the forward pack.
    Most sides are aware if they shut down Scott Prince they've won the game. Cowboys didn't do that last week and allowed the old Titans side (oldest pack in the NRL) to run riot. This week they'll need to make tackles and it'll wear down the side. Conversely the Raiders will have much more attacking opportunities than they did last week against the Storm.
    Much has been made about the Titans being unbeaten against the Raiders on the Gold Coast - this is true. But they've only played 4 games at Skilled Stadium, so it's hardly a rock solid statistic going forward.
    I'm locking in the Raiders +2.5 because I think there is added value with the points. Raiders will be keen for their first win and I think the Titans have played their grand final for the year already.

    GL
    Last edited by That Guy; 03-09-12 at 06:54 AM. Reason: typo
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  22. 03-10-12 12:32 AM #57
    That Guy
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    Play #4
    Bulldogs vs Dragons UNDER 36.5 1x 1.92
    No time for a big writeup. Dragons have said they're focussing on defensive efforts this week. I expect this to be a clinical game with both sides not trying anything fancy. Statistically this has always been a low scoring game. Tonight should be no exception. GL
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  23. 03-10-12 05:43 AM #58
    garygroundwork
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    nice work
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  24. 03-10-12 05:41 PM #59
    That Guy
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    Updated - NRL Season 2012 7-10 -3.55 units

    Round 2 4-0 so far
    Good start to the Round so far and have been working on a few plays for tonight. GL everyone

    Play #5
    Cronulla vs Newcastle UNDER 38.5 1x 1.85
    Wayne Bennett has stressed the Knights need to focus on defense this week. If they do that then we'll have a similar game to last week when Sharks played the Tigers in a low scoring match. So far Sharks defense has been rock solid and I expect a methodical game from both teams this afternoon. Only danger is a blow out from the Knights which might be on the cards after last weekend's lost. Even so, I don't think it will exceed 38 pts.
    I'm pleased the points have opened up at UNDER 38.5 and not 36 or 32 as might have been the case. This makes it a strong play, so I'm locking in 1 unit on the UNDER. Good luck

    Play #6
    Melbourne Vs South Sydney +6.5 1x 1.97
    Unconfirmed rumour that GI has been ruled out of this match after injuring his hamstring at training.
    I've already made a play on this match but I recommend a NO PLAY if GI is ruled out. However rumours like this have persisted in the past and created create buying ops for the Rabbitohs.
    Rabbitohs should strength last week and played 79.5 minutes of great football. I expect more of the same this week against the Storm would looked a little flat last week and were lucky to get away with the win against the Raiders.
    Ex storm players will be keen for a big match and the Rabbitohs coach should have some inside knowledge on his old club. Expect this one to be a close one even if GI is ruled out, but his inclusion will give Souths the edge. Lock in 1x play for this game, I'm on it regardless of Inglis but recommend a NO PLAY without him.
    GL
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  25. 03-10-12 09:46 PM #60
    That Guy
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    Play #7
    Roosters vs Panthers UNDER 44.5 1x 1.85

    Not much time for a big writeup. This will be a high scoring match but I think the books have cooked the line a little too much.
    Have this game set at 38 which is a lock for me.
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  26. 03-10-12 11:19 PM #61
    That Guy
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    Side play (not counted in totals - non NRL)
    Toyota Cup Storms vs Rabbitohs +14.5 1x 1.95 starts 4.45pm

    Don't normally play under 21's but this line is too good to resist. Storm have a strong young side but the Rabbits have shown a lot of early form this year and have a lot of young guns this year. Last week they beat the Roosters convincingly and had a +18 pts line. This week I think they'll put in a strong performance again. Defense is very good so far for a young team and if they play like last week they could even take this match.
    Great little side play for 1x with a rare 14 point start for a team that aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel. Having a good week so far with Round 2 and confident for a bit of action on Toyota Cup.
    GL
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  27. 03-11-12 09:23 PM #62
    That Guy
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    Updated - NRL Season 2012 9-11 -2.85 units
    Round 2 6-1 so far

    Rabbitohs late capitulation stopped the plays from going 7-0 so far this weekend. Hopefully can end on a strong note tonight and the last play for the weekend:

    Play #8
    Eels vs Warriors OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
    This game has points written all over it. Both sides will be keen to throw it around tonight and Eels should have more points in them on a dry surface in Sydney. I expect this game to blow out like it has previous years. The last 2 times these teams met the score exceed 50 points and I expect about 44pts for this game based on individual player modelling.
    This should be a heavy offensive game so I'm locking in 1x on the OVER.
    GL
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  28. 03-12-12 04:46 AM #63
    Sol
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    Great week man, smoked it.
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  29. 03-12-12 04:59 AM #64
    garygroundwork
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    on fire!
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  30. 03-12-12 08:46 PM #65
    maroona
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    Nice work mate, good analysis and worked out well, keep it up..
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  31. 03-12-12 09:13 PM #66
    kingsr
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    7-1 weekend! Awesome!
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  32. 03-12-12 09:59 PM #67
    Blackroc78
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  33. 03-13-12 02:59 AM #68
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sol View Post
    Great week man, smoked it.
    Quote Originally Posted by garygroundwork View Post
    on fire!
    Quote Originally Posted by maroona View Post
    Nice work mate, good analysis and worked out well, keep it up..
    Quote Originally Posted by kingsr View Post
    7-1 weekend! Awesome!
    cheers guys.. great to recover after a shocking Round 1. Time to start getting into the positive units in Round 3 and hopefully a 2x lock on a solid play.
    Feel free to jump in and disagree with any plays if you see fit. GL this week!

    Updated - NRL Season 2012 10-11 -1.9 units
    Round 2 final 7-1
    Disappointing loss on the Rabbitohs match kept it from being a perfect weekend. In retrospect gave the Rabbitohs far too much credit based on stats and the Storm not enough credit - they're a solid side and will continue to perform well this year.
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  34. 03-13-12 07:20 AM #69
    benrama
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    You beauty! Great comeback mate, and don't worry you weren't the only one under-estimating the Storm. I've done that pretty much every season, just finally decided to learn my lesson in 2012

    Hey I'm doing a model for the NRL and I know you've been working on one as well - interested in sharing or collaborating at some point?
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  35. 03-14-12 02:48 AM #70
    That Guy
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    Quote Originally Posted by benrama View Post
    You beauty! Great comeback mate, and don't worry you weren't the only one under-estimating the Storm. I've done that pretty much every season, just finally decided to learn my lesson in 2012

    Hey I'm doing a model for the NRL and I know you've been working on one as well - interested in sharing or collaborating at some point?
    Cheers mate

    Always keen for opportunites to beat the books.
    Happy to collaborate at some point.. but still working on developing a solid model. PM me

    Had all the line data / team / player stats going back 10 years but started over after a shocking Round 1. All the data in the world sometimes does more harm than good, plus it doesn't measure qualitative data that only a close follower of the NRL would know.
    GL
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