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Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The Indianapolis Colts crushed the Houston Texans earlier this season and are more than touchdown favorites for Sunday’s AFC South rematch from NRG Stadium. We preview the matchup with our Colts-Texans picks.

Week 13 around the NFL appears to be one with a lot of mismatches as there could be up to seven teams that kick off on Sunday as at least 7-point favorites. That includes the Colts as they look for the season sweep of the rival Texans.

It’s nothing short of a must-win game for Indianapolis as it sits 10th in the AFC with a 6-6 record. The schedule only gets harder from here on out. Houston (2-9) was expected to be terrible this season, and it has been.

This has been a lopsided series over the years with the Colts leading 30-9 in regular-season action. They've also won five of the last six regular-season meetings.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 13 matchup between the Colts and Texans (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Colts vs. Texans Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Dec. 5, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: NRG Stadium, Houston, TXWeather: Indoors

Colts vs. Texans Odds Analysis

It’s important to shop around for this spread as many books have it at Colts -9, after it opened at -7.5 almost everywhere. Because I’m backing the favorite, I’m using DraftKings because it has Indy at -8.5 and that could certainly matter in something like a 32-23 victory. More than 75% of spread action as of this writing is on the Colts.

The total was as high as 47 but is down to 45.5. When the teams played in Week 6, the total closed at 45.5, and the final score of 31-3 fell well short.

Colts vs. Texans Picks

Colts -8.5 (-110) ???Over 45.5 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: NFL Parlay Picks for Week 13

Colts vs. Texans Predictions

Colts -8.5 (-110)

When these teams met in Week 6, Indianapolis was scuffling with a 1-4 record. The Colts were also on a short week after blowing a big lead and losing to the Baltimore Ravens in overtime on Monday Night Football in Week 5. The Colts were 11.5-point favorites against the Texans and that game was never in doubt with Indianapolis winning 31-3. They've kept rolling and have played to a 4-2 record since.

Colts RB Jonathan Taylor started his MVP push that day with 145 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, including an 83-yarder. QB Carson Wentz attempted only 20 passes and completed 11 for 223 yards and two scores. The Colts had zero turnovers and just two penalties for 10 yards.

Houston managed 353 yards but mostly in garbage time with rookie third-round pick QB Davis Mills under center. He was not good with two interceptions, and the Texans also lost a fumble.

Since his return from injured reserve in Week 9, QB Tyrod Taylor has thrown two touchdown passes and rushed for two scores. However, he has also thrown four interceptions. Houston is 1-2 in those three games. Head coach David Culley said that Mills could see more time this year, but only if Taylor is unavailable.

I generally don’t like giving this many points to a home team, but the Colts have all the motivation, and the Texans have none. Taylor isn’t that much better than Mills so while this may not be a 31-3 win like the first meeting, Indy should prevail by double digits.

Indianapolis is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games in Houston, and it's 4-0 ATS in its last four road games. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. We're picking the Colts to beat the Texans by nine or more points in Week 13.

Over 45.5 (-110)

Sometimes you have to bet a total taking potential garbage time into account. That will probably will be the case on Sunday, where the Texans are down big and score 7-10 points in the fourth quarter while the Colts are playing prevent defense. That’s largely how I see this game hitting the Over. Houston is last in the NFL with 14.9 points per game, and in total offense with 264.8 yards per game.

If the Colts don’t learn to take better care of the ball, the Texans will certainly score more than 15 points. Indianapolis should have beaten Tampa Bay last Sunday but lost 38-31 due to five turnovers, four in the second half. Taylor had a chance to set an NFL record with nine straight games of at least 100 scrimmage yards and a rushing TD. The league’s leading rusher got his touchdown but finished with 97 total yards.

Taylor has averaged 129.3 scrimmage yards and totaled four TDs in three career games vs. Houston. The Texans are second-to-last in rush defense this season, while allowing 135.6 YPG.

Defensively, the Colts' 27 takeaways lead the NFL, and despite a minus-three turnover differential against the Bucs, they still lead the league with a plus-12 turnover differential. I fully expect at least two takeaways against Houston and perhaps a defensive TD. 

Houston’s Taylor has been better at home this season and looks for his third straight start there with at least two TD throws and a passer rating of at least 90.

As of this writing, there doesn't appear to be any major injury concerns on either side.

The Over is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four road games, and 5-2 in the Texans’ last seven at home.

Indy wins something like 30-17.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out’s community forums and betting tools.

Colts-Texans picks made 12/01/2021 at 1 p.m. ET.