Entering the home stretch of the 2021 NFL season, upsets continue to rain down on the league on a weekly basis. We lock in our favorite plays of Week 13 in our NFL parlay picks.
NFL parlays are tricky to hit, but they can offer a big payday in return. Correctly picking multiple NFL games becomes even more daunting when the best handicappers are fortunate to hit 54% of their bets. Regardless, we have plunged into the Week 13 Sunday slate and identified three games that could bring us a big R.O.I. (Return on Investment).
Here’s a look at my top parlay picks for the NFL’s Week 13 Sunday slate (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL Week 13 Parlay Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 (-106) ★★★★
New York Giants +6 (-110) vs. Miami Dolphins ★★★★
Minnesota Vikings -7.5 (-105) vs. Detroit Lions ★★★★
SEE ALSO: NFL Week 13 Updated Odds
NFL Week 13 Parlay Predictions
Steelers +4.5 (-106)
Our winning streak on betting on Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin as an underdog (and fading him as a favorite) came to a crashing end last week. The Steelers were blown out 41-10 at the Cincinnati Bengals. However, when Mike Tomlin is getting 4.5 points at home against their biggest rival?
We go right back to Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh will likely be without LB T.J. Watt (COVID-19), but is still 13-3-2 ATS as a home underdog under Tomlin. This line is a huge overreaction to Pittsburgh’s loss, and a lack of an adjustment to a four-interception game by Ravens QB Lamar Jackson last week.
The games between these two teams are always close. Since 2010, 12 of their 22 regular-season matchups were decided by four or fewer points. The Ravens' last four games have done nothing to inspire confidence that they can win this game by five points against their biggest rival. They beat the Minnesota Vikings at home by four points, lost to the Miami Dolphins on the road by 12, beat the Chicago Bears on the road by three, and beat the Cleveland Browns 16-10 in a turnover-filled contest.
I am throwing out last week’s pitiful performance and betting on history with the Steelers in a historically profitable spot under Tomlin.
Giants +6 (-110)
With the news that QB Daniel Jones has been ruled out, this line has moved two full points. I don’t see why Jones is worth that much movement.
The Giants quarterback has not played well, having failed to crest 222 passing yards in any of his last five games. He threw for fewer than 170 yards in two of those games. Jones’ mobility has also been limited, with 17 or fewer rushing yards in five of his last seven games.
I liked the Giants at 3.5 points, and even if Mike Glennon starts under center, this number is still too high. Miami struggles to run the ball and ranks 30th in run offense DVOA. The Dolphins will prefer to attack through the air with rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki.
However, the Giants defense has been strong all year, ranking seventh-best by pass DVOA. New York’s defense has also played well lately, and held its last four non-Tampa Bay Buccaneers opponents to an average of 11.5 points. New York has battled through a difficult schedule, with its last four losses coming to the Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buccaneers. Those four teams have a combined record of 30-15.
This is a great sell-high spot for the Dolphins, with the Giants fitting into a lucrative betting trend this season. Road underdogs are covering at a 62% (64-40-1) rate this season.
I’ll grab a live road underdog with an inflated six-point line in a low-scoring game with just a 40.5-point Over/Under.
Vikings -7.5 (-105)
This line has remained relatively constant all week despite the news that star Detroit RB D’Andre Swift will miss multiple weeks due to a shoulder sprain. Detroit is 0-10-1 this year and continues to struggle on both sides of the ball and ranks 28th in total team defense DVOA, and 30th in total team offense DVOA.
The Vikings covered the spread in three of their last four games and four of their last six contests. Minnesota is also 4-2 ATS in road matchups.
The loss of RB Dalvin Cook can be tempered by backup Alexander Mattison, and the Minnesota passing attack is at a season-high efficiency level. QB Kirk Cousins has thrown for 13 touchdowns over the last six games with just one interception.
Detroit’s main remaining offensive weapon is TE T.J. Hockenson, yet the Vikings are the best team in the NFL at limiting tight end production. Minnesota ranks first in scheduled-adjusted production allowed to tight ends, placing a huge obstacle in front of the Lions' most reliable passing game target.
I hate laying a touchdown with a division rival on the road, but l'll will make an exception against the Lions.
Combined odds: Steelers +4.5 (-106), Giants +6 (-110), Vikings -7.5 (-105): +624
Picks made on 12/03/21 at 11:15 a.m. ET.