🏀 UConn vs. Duke Prediction & Picks: March Madness Elite 8 (March 29)

Two of the six college basketball teams that have at least five national championships meet in a colossal Elite Eight matchup, as No. 2 seed UConn takes on No. 1 Duke from Capital One Arena in Washington, DC at 5:05 p.m. ET (CBS) on Sunday. The Blue Devils are 5.5-point betting favorites.

My UConn vs. Duke prediction that's part of our March Madness predictions expects the Huskies to keep playing their best defensive basketball against non-conference opponents, while the Blue Devils may be worn down from a physical game against St. John’s.

🏀 UConn vs. Duke picks & odds: March Madness Elite Eight

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.03 units

🏆 Who will win UConn vs. Duke?

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Duke has previously been a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament 15 times, and made the Final Four in eight of those years. On the other side, UConn head coach Dan Hurley has never won a March Madness game as an underdog, going 0-3 SU.

Score prediction: Duke 67, UConn 64

💰 UConn vs. Duke prediction & best bet

Under 134.5 (-110)

Duke allowed 75 points and 40.6% 3-point shooting to an oftentimes offensively challenged St. John’s, which will likely have the public backing the Over. But that would also ignore how good the Blue Devils have been over the last two seasons while coming off a poor defensive performance, going 11-0 straight up and 7-4 against the spread when allowing 75-plus points in their previous game.

UConn is going to turn this contest into a half-court grind. It entered the Sweet 16 allowing transition points at a 29th percentile rate with a 91st percentile efficiency rating, then held the Spartans to five fast break points.

🔥 Best UConn vs. Duke player prop bet

Alex Karaban Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+125)

St. John’s had zero games from Jan. 11 to the start of the NCAA Tournament with double-digit made 3-pointers, then drilled 13 against Duke. But that’s been something the Blue Devils have been willing to live with all season, ranking in the bottom 30 in 3-point rate allowed, and allowing the ninth-highest percentage of their opponents’ points coming from beyond the arc (38.6%).

It’s a good sign for a UConn team that struggled shooting in the first two rounds that Alex Karaban, Braylon Mullins, and Solo Ball all made multiple threes in the win over Michigan State. 

Even through the struggles, Karaban was the team’s most consistent shooter, with at least three 3-point makes on eight-plus attempts in every NCAA Tournament game to this point. With more perimeter threats around Karaban gaining confidence, I expect him to see less defensive attention and to go Over this total. 

🚀 UConn vs. Duke same-game parlay

Since I'm expecting a low-scoring game as my top four-star play, getting five points with the underdog in what should be a defensive struggle is added value. I'm banking on Karaban to do his part as UConn's most consistent perimeter threat to help keep the Huskies close, while selling high on the supporting cast after its 43% 3-point shooting night against Michigan State. 

I'm sacrificing some value on the point spread and total by making this same-game parlay at bet365, as it's alone among the best sports betting apps while offering player props on 3-pointers.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting UConn vs. Duke: March Madness strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

It's hard to ignore Dan Hurley's success in the NCAA Tournament, going 9-0 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. That's the best ATS mark of any head coach in the seeding era. And while Hurley's teams haven't won as a March Madness underdog, they're still a respectable 2-1 ATS, which has me compelled to back the Huskies at +5.5.

My most confident wager is the Under, as Jon Scheyer's teams have cashed the Under in 10 of 14 NCAA Tournament games. And in Duke's 16 games against non-conference opponents this season, the Under has cashed 75% of the time. Despite varying levels of confidence, all are one-unit plays.

📊 Live UConn vs. Duke odds: March Madness Elite Eight

The best sports betting sites are split down the middle, with half at Duke -5 and the others at -5.5. Early betting splits are fairly even, with 59% of the wagers backing UConn. It would likely take a lot more one-sided action, or respected money, to move the line in either direction.

The total has a slightly wider one-point range between the low end of the market at 133.5 and the high end at 134.5. The splits are more lopsided compared to the point spread, with 65% of the early action backing the Over. Because of that, I expect the sportsbooks at 133.5 to align with the rest of the market before long.

📈 UConn vs. Duke betting trends

📺 How to watch UConn vs. Duke: March Madness Elite Eight

• Date: Sunday, March 29
• Tipoff: 5:05 p.m. ET
• Location: Capital One Arena (Washington, DC)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+