Nikigreat Tennis Picks

[Dmoneytx]

I lost in 3rd round Niki. I player the #8 seed tough man. He was very solid, only weakness was his 1 handed top backhand. And it wasn't that weak bro! LOL. I fought till the last ball, went out swinging man 4-6, 4-6.
Calves felt good today. I played really well I thought. Hitting out on SO many balls, it felt good. Hats off to him

I agree about today. Bovada has no Davis Cup doubles, so I'm sitting today out.

[Nikigreat]

Double
Paolo Lorenzi - Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo, Jo Wilfried Tsonga - John Isner
Pick: Paolo Lorenzi, Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 2.31 [+131]
Why: It's night here and I'm really tired, I won't write much:
Lorenzi is playing solid as he always does at these levels, Ramirez-Hidalgo came in Final suffering in every match, and after his 18 double faults done yesterday I think the italian will take this title.
On clay Tsonga has the mobility to create problems to Isner. He can gain as much points as the american with the serve and so I think Isner's best shot won't be so decisive.
Moreover USA are leading 2-1 and this french crowd will really do anything to bring a show man like Tsonga to the victory and give hope for a possible and exciting 3-2 with comeback.

BetVictor

[Nikigreat]

I lost in 3rd round Niki. I played the #8 seed tough man. He was very solid, only weakness was his 1 handed top backhand. And it wasn't that weak bro! LOL. I fought till the last ball, went out swinging man 4-6, 4-6.
Calves felt good today. I played really well I thought. Hitting out on SO many balls, it felt good. Hats off to him

I agree about today. Bovada has no Davis Cup doubles, so I'm sitting today out.

Hey John if you gave anything you had you can't never have any remorse and you know it; he simply was stronger this time, keep going and good luck for the next tournaments!

[Nikigreat]

Two ATP Tournaments on clay to approach my favourite tournament of the year, Montecarlo is up next week!

Let's start with some Outright

WTA Barcellona
Outright Winner
Pick 1: Julia Georges @ 5 [+400]
Pick 2: Francesca Schiavone @ 6.5 [+550]
Why: I'm expecting a good tournament by Georges, she loves clay and if she can hold her serve working well she has a shot here.
Feel this can be the tournament of the recover for Francesca; really slow clay where she can use all her variations and with a good draw she can enter in shape match after match.

BetVictor


Houston
Outright Winner
Pick 1: Carlos Berlocq @ 29 [+2800]
Why: Berlocq has good early rounds. Lost by Blake last year and he faces him again but I think this time he will take that. Then he should play the Quarter Finals against Feliciano and starts as favourite for me. The problem is in Semifinal, where he probably finds John Isner but let's see what happens, never knows.

BetVictor


Houston
Paolo Lorenzi - Wayne Odesnik
Pick: Wayne Odesnik @ 2.2 [+120]
Why: Match postponed at tomorrow. Lorenzi comes in Houston after a final in Mexico where he had 5 matches and 3 three-setter. Few comfortable wins and a disappointing final lost with Ramirez-Hidalgo. Odesnik comes from a Challenger on hard but played especially on clay this year like he always does. He defeated Lorenzi in straights some year ago (2006) and has a good chance again.

BetVictor


Double
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - Fabio Fognini, Benoit Paire - Donald Young
Pick: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Benoit Paire @ 2.4 [+140]
Why: I go against the shape of Fognini who is fighting with an injury from all the 2012 and is having his worst start of the year ever. He won two matches so far: the first with Russell dropping a set and the second last week with the 1100th ranked Krajinovic, in three sets again. Then lost by Middelkoop who mostly play Futures and some Challenger.
Garcia-Lopez is not doing miracles but at least showed some decent result lately, and it's a more solid player than one like Middelkoop. Odd is dropping here because everyone is going with the spanish.
Another time against Donald Young; the guy had similar results to Fognini with a little difference: he wasn't injured. 2 matches won and 7 loss and has not played on clay yet. Benoit doesn't*disdain clay and showed that taking sets to Wawrinka and to Almagro this year.

BetVictor

[Dmoneytx]

Thanks for the support Niki I have a feeling we would be good friends if we didn't live 8,000 miles apart, LOL> I won almost 50 matches last year in the second highest level, finishing #2 in Texas. This year, the top level is awesome! Guys are so solid, kids going on scholarships to college, really good teaching pros, kids playing qualies, futures, some trying to get into Challanger level............and I love the challange brotha!! I go into every match around -400 now, LOL. And its a different feeling than last year, where I was almost expected to win every match. This is defientely more my level of hitting & I absolutely LOVE the fight of every point. I have picked up 325 points already this year, to put me in top 20!! I won 3 or 4 matches in main draws. So maybe that -400 for every match will be dropping quickly

But I do appreciate the support Niki. And I wish you the very best in all of your matches and your tments as well my friend. I am getting dressed & heading to River Oaks NOW!!! Matches start in 45 mins. I haven't had time to really look at the matches today, ARG! Had a ton of family for Easter here (Happy Easter if you celebrated it sir ). But I will be looking on my phone on the drive downtown & I will post something if I decide to take a hook up play. I will be there everyday during this week & it looks like a lot of the good matches start tommorrow.

I also saw that Odesnik must be tomm I think. I will ck on the big board when I get down there. And I will post some stuff as I am watching the matches, should be great fun I am so pumped up for this entire week. Get back to ya soon........

[Nikigreat]

Hey John in the end I won my tournament, it was a really tough final and I won 6-4 at the third set. Really happy!

It wasn't easy but I close the Garcia-Lopez - Paire, very good.

[Dmoneytx]

Congrats Niki!!! Great job brotha Also, I saw Dumbass Young made that a close match!! Good job on the win for that hook up play!!
I just watched Mello win in straights. Not super impressed. I was definitely NOT impressed with Zeballos winning 7-5 in third earlier. But I say that every time I see him play, LoL. Zeballos has no weapons. Neither did Henrych.
Fixing to go sit down & watch Bjorn Phau play. The doubles with Sweeting & Kendrick is in the grandstand. Kind of boring. Wake & Kohlman are gonna get waxed, LOL.

[Dmoneytx]

Berlocq -350
Querrey -550

Total = apprx -190

[Dmoneytx]

So sorry to ev1 that I could not post a better explanation of my play today. I was leaving the Clay Courts tment here in Houston & my phone died at the tment. LOL!!! So when it turned on, I was driving home rushing to go teach. I put that play on the thread with one hand while I was driving I know the payout was not good, but I tend to play these sometimes to get my account up a little bit more. I always play my parlays to WIN 100, so tonight was 190 to pay 100 apprximately. I felt really good about both matches, and I was surprised to see Blake even take a set off Berlocq. But Carlos ROLLED him in the third set. Querrey is the KING OF THE ATP 250's, so I knew he would smash Prodon. Tommorrow I will be at the matches ALL day & there are gonna be some good ones going on!!! I will post my plays on here before I go to bed, in case I am in a rush tomm morning to get up to the tment.
Nothing like watching live tennis!! AND wagering on it

BOL to all of us

[swordsandtequila]

Dmoney and Niki, appreciate all your posts. You both know your sh*t as far as tennis goes! Keep slinging those winners.

[Nikigreat]

Casablanca
Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol - Rui Machado
Pick: Sergio Gutierrez-Ferrol @ 2.3 [+130]
Why: Machado is not winning a single match, Gutierrez qualified here beating a good claycourter like Donskoy and has the shape on his side. This is a must play with the recent Machado's form.

BetVictor


Triple
Matthias Bachinger - Filippo Volandri, Olga Govortsova - Francesca Schiavone, Guillermo Hormazabal - Rajeev Ram
Pick: Filippo Volandri, Francesca Schiavone, Rajeev Ram @ 2.12 [+112]
Why: It's all about surface in this one. Bachinger rarely plays on clay, Filippo is back a good claycourter this year and if it's ok won't have mant problems to win this.
Don't know why Hormazabal plays the only Challenger on hard this week; he is a typical claycourter and doesn't play on hard since May 2009; would be shocked if Ram doesn't win this.
Talked about Schiavone yesterday when I picked her in the Outright, if today loses to Govortsova I won't never pick her again.

BetVictor

Still waiting for Odesnik, picked yesterday.

[Dmoneytx]

GL today Niki on the picks! I see that Volandri is struggling right now against Bachinger. I looked at this one earlier for my hook up play, but I passed. I would be very surprised to see Bachinger take that match, I was thinking the same thing you were. He doesn't play on clay much & Volandri lives on it. I am ALWAYS skeptical of taking Shiavone. I personally do NOT like her & she has burned me in the past more times than once. But Govortsova should be a match she wins. I just got off her bandwagon a LONG time ago. I like Rajeev Ram. Met him a few years ago here in Houston. I liked his play on the clay here & he was just a damn nice guy to talk to!! I hope this cashes for ya brotha.
I agree about Machado. He has not been winnig hardly at all this year. But his losses have come against some very decent players. And most of those matches were fairly close. That could be a tough play to pull out, but with plus odds it is worth a shot. Bovada has G Ferrol at +145. This match could be a coin toss though in my eyes. Again, I hope you cash that one as well.

I'll post two plays today I like in just a few mins. I hope you have a great day today. I am heading up to the Clay Courts in 3 hours. I can't decide if I want to watch Odesnik or Malisse to start the day. Hmmmm.........

[Dmoneytx]

Niki, the Odesnik line jumped huge!!! Wow! Odesnik was +115 last night on Bovada & I just checked it and its at -155 now. It you put it in yesterday, you got a great price! I think this match will be close, but what a shift on the line huh??? I hope he cashes for you botha!

[crblahblah]

I can't believe how crappy Volandri is right now. Bachinger isn't great on any surface and Volandri still keeps messing everything up. He got down a break early in 1st, broke back, only to be broken again. Then he had a chance to break to save set and loses. Of course he gets broken again 1st game of 2nd set. Such an awful feeling trying to close a parlay and having it crash here to Bachinger.

[Dmoneytx]

I have seen Volandri play & when he is off, he is off. Bachinger isn't a good clay court player, but Volandri seems to be off today. Sometimes these Challanger matches, can be head scratching. Even for those of us who follow these un heard of players, sometimes if the lower ranked pros have an off day, it can be ugly. He is only down one break, still hope for the best. You can't count these Challanger matches until they are completely over bec sometimes the other player who should not win, ends up seeing the finish line & chokes hard. Vamos Volandri!!! BOL to all us!!

My 2 parlays coming up in a few mins, I am working on the write ups right now.....

[Dmoneytx]

Volandri back on serve, 3-3 in second. If he can take the second set, he will be favored to win this match again.
And he holds to go up 4-3, pressure back on Bachinger now! Thats what I was talking about. If he can break one more time Bach, then he will be fired up for that third set. Hope it goes three for ya'll......

[Nikigreat]

Volandri lost, I know I don't have to pick italians when they're favourite and I always do it.
By the way it's a profit if Gutierrez-Ferrol wins, he is up 4-2 and serve in the first set.

[beefcake]

Watch out,Cippolla is playing like Donkey Ass to a +1300 dog in Casablanca.

[Nikigreat]

Gutierrez easy, 6-2 6-1. That was really the best play today. Waiting for Odesnik tonight.

[Dmoneytx]

Parlay #1

Giraldo -900
Malisse -250
Kerber -750

Total = apprx -131

Giraldo has played really well the last few months & beaten some really good players on the big ATP level. Throw out losing to Nadal last match & he has beaten Andujar, Berlocq, Nishikori, Granollers & Nalbandian. He lost 3rd set breaker to Almagro. His opponent, Corvalan, has been playing Challangers & not doing very well. Since Schwank blew him off the court 2 months ago, he has only beaten 2 players in first rounds & lost the rest. Both those players were fairly low ranked. This should be a colossal mis match & if Giraldo doesn't win in straights, I might have a heart attack.
Malisse has been playing some really good players this year & has held his own against the likes of Tsonga (lost 5&5) and Anderson (lost 3rd set). He has beaten Roger-Vasellin, Garcia Lopez & Roddick lately. I hope that good form continues today. I am also really banking on Kunitsyn to continue his run of bad form. He has been beaten pretty bad his last two tments by Symzeck (lost in 3, but blown out 2nd & 3rd sets) and Zverev (blown out in 2 sets). His other wins have come against far inferior players. This might be a close match, maybe one tight set, but I'm really hoping the X man gets thru in straights.
Kerber has been enjoying a very solid year so far, racking up a bunch of wins (against good players too). She beat Li Na, McHale & Stephens two tments ago before losing a very competitive match to Azarenka.
Also notched wins over Sharapova & Wickmayer, before losing to Bartoli in the finals few tments ago. She did lose first round last tment, but fatigue played a big part of that & now with some rest, I fully expect her to cont her good form this year & move thru the draw this week. Her opponent, Foretz, was blown off the court by Peng last match & hasn't beaten any quality opponents all year. She is definitely out matched here & again, I would be shocked if Kerber did not win in straights today.

[Dmoneytx]

Good win on Gutierrez today!!
Odesnik is in about an hour from now. I'll pop into his match & let u know what I think. Unless I get stuck in the stadium court watching Malisse. GL Niki!!!

[Dmoneytx]

Parlay #2

DePaula -210
Pervak -250

Total = apprx +105

(usually I do NOT hook up two lines in the -200's, but I really like both plays here & I am on a HUGE anti Massu train this year!)

Write up coming in a min. I'm walking into the Clay Courts. Need to get situated first.

*I did put two plays up today, so there is some flexibility of a choice today. I personally like both plays, but always like the picks you take yourself. And BOL to all of us!!!

[Dmoneytx]

DePaula has been playing fairly well this year. He rolled thru qualies last tment & lost to Lorenzi in the Quarters! Great run there. He has played some middle ranked pros rough this year & won the matches he should have. I am also going AGAINST Massu here. I personally hate the guy. He was an ass at the Clay Courts a few years ago & he made a smart ass comment to my girlfriend bec she wanted a picture. He said it in Spanish & my girl looked at him and rattled something back in Spanish in a strong tone & said "forget this loser". He has been playing awful this year!! He has lost his last two matches horribly to DelBonis & Ward. He has lost his last 4 matches in a row & only semi-competed in one Challanger tment where he played far weaker players. He is definitely on the way out of his career & when he starts to whine & complain on the court (which is a lot), his play is awful! Seems to me he has lost motivation & his results are showing. Only 2 wins this year & maybe 10 losses. And ALL at the Challanger level. I would love to see him get blown out today.
Pervak has played actually really well this year. Winning 7 of her last 11 matches. She has beaten some good players (Schiavonne, Yakimova, Peng, Gorotosova). She lost to Ivanovic in 3 sets two tments ago in Quarters I think & I expect her to win some rounds this week. I am really going against her opponent, Konta. She has been not playing any really good players this year. She did take a set of Safarova, but she mainly plays ITF's & plays much weaker opponents than Pervak does! She has only won $1,700 the entire year, compared to Pervaks $400,000 range. You never know with Women's tennis, but I definetly expect Pervak to win this match in straights.

[Dmoneytx]

And as always, BOL to all of us today!!!

[Nikigreat]

Good parlay man.
Honestly, I tought the odd of Massu was good, but then I checked his stats and is really not winning a match.
Saw Pervak too, she should win in straights but never knows in WTA as you said.

When you do a trip in Italy and we hit some ball?

[Dmoneytx]

Dude, that would be awesome. Playing on the red clay!! My Mom & my sister went to Italy last year and loved it!!!!! My Moms maiden name is DiMarco, so she was connecting with a lot of the stuff they did (places they saw, food they are, etc...). I have never been outside of the US, so it would be so sweet to see someplace like Italy

[Nikigreat]

Dude, that would be awesome. Playing on the red clay!! My Mom & my sister went to Italy last year and loved it!!!!! My Moms maiden name is DiMarco, so she was connecting with a lot of the stuff they did (places they saw, food they are, etc...). I have never been outside of the US, so it would be so sweet to see someplace like Italy

Let's see if you can do something for your next holidays, I'm serious!
The club house of my club works as hotel too, hospitality won't be a problem!

[Nikigreat]

By the way Pervak retired, I hope your book sets void for retirements.

[Dmoneytx]

Something must of been wrong with Pervak. Thank goodness she retired the match. One or re only good things about Bovada is that if a player retires at ANY time, the play is void. So now, waiting on DePaula as a straight.

[Dmoneytx]

Just watched Malisse go down in straights! What a dissapointing match to watch. He looked crappy. Igor did nothing special, Malisse lost it all by himself. Great job moron. And he officially goes on my list of never wager on again. Just like Schiavonne. I saw she lost in straights! Also so happy I didn't play Haase. He has been on my list of non plays, for awhile now.
Hoping DePaula comes thru so I only lose a small ammount.
Arg!!!

[Nikigreat]

Last time I saw livescore Lorenzi was down 0-30 on his serve, 3-3 at third set.
Then the match disappeared and when I checked back Lorenzi won 6-3.
Obviously when I picked him two days ago he lost from Hidalgo, today that I was against him and he won.

[Nikigreat]

Casablanca
Paul-Henri Mathieu - Guillermo -Garcia-Lopez
Pick: Paul-Henri Mathieu @ 1.9 [-111]
Why: I watched both playing their first round. Mathieu played much better than Guillermo. Different players faced ok, Garcia-Lopez defeated Fognini and Mathieu won with the home WC Ziadi, but I can see who is hitting the ball with more confidence and that one seemed to be Mathieu. Head to head 3-0 for the french, he can continue the streak today.

BetVictor


Double
Flavio Cipolla - Aleksandr Dolgopolov, Mona Barthel - Alberta Brianti
Pick: Alexsandr Dolgopolov, Mona Barthel @ 1.45 [-222]
Why: Small odd parlay. Pretty sure with this one.
This time Dolgo won't disappoint; I saw Cipolla today, he's not at his best and that's why he dropped a set to the poor Idmbarek. Alexsandr will overpower him today, no way.
The copy of Dolgopolov in WTA is Mona Barthel. Mainly for the phisical aspect, but even in the style of play she remembers a little bit Dolgo.
She plays at a different level than Brianti, hitting the ball stronger and faster. They met 4 years ago when Mona was just 17 and she lost only at the third set; today the german is a well formed player and I can't see her not winning this match.

BetVictor

[Dmoneytx]

I will do my write up for this tomm morning. I love the two plays you took Niki with Dolgo & Barthel. I will add to that tomm in the morning when I have time to do some research. I am tailing you on the first play. I looked at Dolgo also to put in my parlay earlier, so taking it now makes me feel pretty good. I like Barthel as well! But I did not look at her originally. I will add one play to that hook up, Anderson. I saw him on the practice court today & he looked like he was hitting the ball really well. I will add more parlay tomm I think.


Parlay #1

Barthel -900
Dolgopolov - 320
Anderson - 400

Total = apprx. -125

[Nikigreat]

Double
Denis Istomin - Igor Andreev, Paolo Lorenzi - Feliciano Lopez
Pick: Igor Andreev, Feliciano Lopez @ 2.04 [+104]
Why: Poor motivations, I go with the best claycourter, who has played well in first round and has the feeling with the surface yet.
About Lopez, I was giving Lorenzi loser with Odesnik and he risked so much, he's probably tired for the number of matches in a row and Lopez is a level up player, the spanish has 75-80% to win this for me.

BetVictor

[Dmoneytx]

Parlay #1

I saw that Barthel won fairly easily, 2 & 3.
I agree about Dolgopolov today. I know Cipolla beat him last time they played, but Cipolla got blown off the court by Andreev 0 & 2 recently. I can not see him beating Dolgo today. We might see a tight match or one tight set, but I expect Dolgo in straights.
I added Anderson bec I feel he will win this match today in probably straight sets. He was hamering the ball on the practice court yesterday & the serve looked good! He has been playing very well this year. Sousa has lost 4 of his last 6 matches in singles. He got fairly blown out by Giannessi & Capdeville. The players he has beaten were far lower players than a scale of Anderson. This is a match that could be close, but could also be one sided if Sousa doesn't serve out of his mind. For that reason, I added Anderson to Niki's parlay to better the odds and I feel really good about it.