EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

To get into the Tennis lingo spirit, I shall from this day forward refer to the two-person parlay as DEUCE. Yeah, I am that gay.

1.6.11: DEUCE #1
I THINK I THINK the Deuce tonight starts with Wickmayer. She draws Peng in Auckland. Peng's shown nicely this week, but has been flirting with disaster with all the break opps given [30 in three matches]. Wickmayer made quick work of Halep yesterday, but hasn't been in superb form. The surface seems to suit Wickmayer better and I think in the end, her superior skill set prevails. Team here up with Stepanek who draws Mayer in Brisbane. Hard to argue against his form so far, especially his dismantling of Fish. Mayer meanwhile has no where near as dominant as his opener in taking on Berankis. Mayer was broken six times and his serve was not overpowering against a better returner than Tomic in round one. Stepanek seems very comfortable at this tournament with an 11-1 mark here. If he can get his first serve in consistently, I THINK he'll set himself up for another semifinal appearance in Brisbane. Parlay at +137.

[beefcake]

Good analysis as usual my man. You're doing your best to convince me. Nice start to the season for ya from the looks of your sheet. Not that I obsess over that stuff... I salute you!
Have you delved into the challenger circuit as of yet? I see paycheck got bounced early..Hunta-galung looks like he hasnt left off from his run at the end of 2010 in Nouema. Some unseeded guy named Gensse is in the semis after beating the #1 seed to start..

[EaglesPhan36]

Looked briefly at lines, but since the schedule is light early in the season for main level and Challenger, will probably be mid-February or March before I even think about Challengers. Like to have a body of work for them more-so than the main level people.

[beefcake]

Wow, wick barely survived the 2nd set..Nervous that she wont have anything left for the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wickmayer = stressful win. Peng choked serving for the 2nd set. Wickmayer did the same in the 3rd at 5-4, but got it 7-5. Stepanek at least looking good early. Need low stress the 2nd leg here!

[brandoc]

Nice work on Wickmayer - nervous times there but Peng always has a good choke or two in her. Stepanek looks like he´ll roll through the second set so best of luck with the DEUCE.

[EaglesPhan36]

Smooth win for Stepanek: 6-3, 6-3. Got the parlay. Now I can breathe.

[EaglesPhan36]

BRISBANE 1.6.11
I THINK I THINK the total for Soderling and the Aussie Ebden presents a solid OVER shot tonight. Soderling has offered just three break points in two matches here and saved all three. Ebden scored the nice upset of Istomin last round, showing some solid skills. The big thing for him is getting his 1st serve in. His 2nd serve as with any young player is vulnerable, so the more first serves he can get in, the better. Ebden did some nice things in Brisbane last year as well with an upset of Melzer before losing to Gasquet in 19 games. If he can keep that 1st serve solid, I think 19 games is do-able with a good shot for more in front of his homies.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.7.11 CHENNAI DEUCE
I THINK I THINK when you start looking where to begin the DEUCE on Friday, you'd be wise to begin with Tipsarevic. The Serb draws Nishikori who was taxed in a three setter against Falla where the Colombian did his best to give Nishikori the match. Falla offered up 20 break opps with Nishikori converting six. Nishikori only saved four of his eight break opps as well. Meanwhile, Tipsarevic was rock solid against with no break points doled out in round two and he's saved all three so far this week. For me, this match is on Tipsy's racket. He has the power and consistency to overwhelm Nishikori in this one. Nishikori will try to extend the points and use his athleticism to wear down the Serb, but I THINK Tipsarevic finds enough to win out today as he's had success here in Chennai before. Pair him with Malisse. The Belgian draws Phau who shocked Gasquet in three. Still, Malisse has been solid this week and I THINK if he can get his 1st serve in at a high percentage, he stands a great shot at advancing. Phau, much like Nishikori, will look to extend the points and use his speed to his advantage. It won't be easy, but Malisse knows how to beat this guy. Parlay them at +117.

I THINK when looking for a total on Friday, Chennai is a good stop as well with Wawrinka and Haase. Wawrinka to me might be a little lazy here, relying on his serve to carry him through. I haven't been particularly impressed by his efforts against a doubles specialist and a qualifier this week. Haase meanwhile has had to work hard, but has been able to do enough to work through in three sets in both matches. His serve is something that has to work for him to be successful. On this surface, Wawrinka has more experience, but he's not necessarily unbeatable. Haase lacks experience on outdoor hard courts, but I THINK this might be a court he is comfortable on. Wawrinka made the final here in 2010, but again worked for every set ... I THINK that happens again today. OVER 22.

[EaglesPhan36]

Said I felt that Nadal would fall yesterday or today, so riding the DONKEY baby. I THINK Davydenko at +230 finally puts Rafa out to rest from his fever.

After relinquishing a 3-1 lead in the first set there seemed to be doubts about whether Nadal, who has been on antibiotics, would last if it developed into a long tough tussle.

Nadal called for the doctor, apparently feeling unwell.


He was told to drink more and that if he didn't feel better soon he might then think about whether or not he wanted to continue.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...e65666fa351.11

[beefcake]

Nice info..Donkey doo-doo or donkey cash today..! Hopefully cash!

[brandoc]

I agree with you this time EP, but i´m going to wait for a couple of games after the start and try and pick a good spot in-play to lay the chalk when Nadal´s hopefully a bit lower.

Good luck!

[brandoc]

I agree with you this time EP, but i´m going to wait for a couple of games after the start and try and pick a good spot in-play to lay the chalk when Nadal´s hopefully a bit lower.

Good luck!

ps Anyone know of any links to follow this game on the net??

[EaglesPhan36]

Well not bad if you consider it. Took two shots that Rafa would lose with less of a risk on Gulbis yesterday and today it pays off. Good job Donkey-denko, now go get slaughtered by Roger please.

Tipsy fukking around in the 2nd set.

[brandoc]

Yes, denko´s doing this pretty easy... just wish i´d put more on it

[EaglesPhan36]

Rafa is a warrior, so sometimes you never know. That he made it through this far is amazing from the sounds of how badly he's been feeling.

Starting raining in Chennai. Suspended play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay in.


Wawrinka-Haase coming up.

[cobalt king]

Any value in hasse

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe on the handicap. +4.

[beefcake]

Man Haase has played NO ONE this tourney, but Wawrinka didnt exaclty play lights out last match..

[EaglesPhan36]

Total will be a winner so long as they finish the match. 3-6, 6-3 so far. Going to a 3rd. Haase +4 looks like a shot.

[beefcake]

nice!
Radek is a nice dog price tonight. hard to against soda this year though. Maybe take both denko and hope for a split..

[EaglesPhan36]

Soderling is playing too good this week, unless he does a no-show. Stepanek +4 maybe. Tinkering with Soderling-Wickmayer parlay potentially. Little worried about how long she was on court against Peng, but the fight she put up was incredible. On this surface, Wicky is better. She won this one last year and Arn has just one career title and it was on clay. Think the weather might be a bit better today too, less humid.

[EaglesPhan36]

AUCKLAND 1.7.11
I THINK I THINK I am going to wet my doubles whistle this evening in Auckland. It's the ladies final, pitting the top seeds Srebotnik-Peschke against Auckland resident Erakovic & Arviddson. Erakovic has been marveling about the fan support she's received this week during their doubles matches with the stadium courts packed to see her play. She has not disappointed and this unheralded duo did KO the 2nd seed in the tournament. I THINK this is a large step up against the top seeds who have crushed all comers in three rounds here. This duo won three titles last year, but they did go just 3-6 in finals of tournament, so they are not unbeatable. Erakovic won a few titles in doubles last year as well with different partners. Arvidsson did not play a lot of doubles in 2010, but she did team up for a title in Quebec City last year, so she too shouldn't be scared in a finals setting. I THINK at +258, let's see if the Auckland crowd can help these girls out.

[EaglesPhan36]

AUCKLAND 1.7.11
I THINK I THINK the women's final tonight could be more interesting than one expects. Certainly Wickmayer has shown to be a class above someone of the caliber of Arn on hard courts, but she's coming in off a taxing almost three hour, three set match that saw her fend off Peng. Wickmayer was not sharp with 17 break opportunities given out. She did manage to save 13 though, but her serve was a little shaky - especially the 2nd serve. Arn meanwhile has been the surprise of the tournament, KO-ing Sharapova & Georges in the past two rounds. I THINK while neither of those players was at their best, Arn is at close to hers. She's converting over 50% of the break opps she sees, so we should see plenty of breaks again. Wickmayer has played three sets in three of her four matches here in Auckland. so she's been far from perfect. With fatigue possibly a factor, I THINK that Arn can keep this competitive. It will be interesting to see how Arn comes into this because Wickmayer trashed her at Cincinnati last Summer on a hard surface, but the situation seems entirely different here. I like Arn to take a set, but I don't think Wickmayer will lose in straights or possible lose at all. So, I THINK taking a plus play at the match to end in three sets at +167 is my try.

[EaglesPhan36]

Doubles team got smoked. Had some break opps in the 1st, including breaking the 1st service game, but then giving it right back. After that, they got rolled. Oh well, small shots at greatness - giving back parts of the Donkey earnings today. Hopefully this next one goes three sets for some coin.

[Bigglefairy]

I like Arn as a +4.5 dog today, she has great value here. Thanks for the heads up on Nadal in an earlier post the other day. Do you think Davydenko has a shot with Federer? Both are playing good tennis, Davydenko has a +3.5 handicap

[Bigglefairy]

Decided to back fed with the -3.5 handicap. Arn has the first set sealed at 6-3.

[EaglesPhan36]

I battled between taking Arn to win the 1st set or the 3 set finish, probably gonna regret it. I think Federer wins. Hard to say really how Davydenko is playing because you can't take much away from the Nadal match. I just don't think the Russian's serve is good enough right now - too breakable.

Should have just gone with the fatigue angle on Wickmayer and taken Arn. She's going to crush her in straights.

[Bigglefairy]

My favourite play today would have to be Tomas Berdych over Stanislas Wawrinka. This will be an easy game for Berdych, his form is much better than Wawrinkas at the moment. Wawrinka has been struggling to win, all games in 3 sets, over equally struggling opponents. In the WTA Brisbane final it would be hard to overlook Andrea Petkovic, she's playing some incredible tennis. Totally outclassed Bartoli yesterday.

[EaglesPhan36]

I've got Berdych marked for parlay purposes, probably with Fed. Arn wins. Great tournament for her.

[EaglesPhan36]

Think I am sitting the weekend out. Not really 100% on anything listed. Give my thoughts, but they are what they are ... thoughts. Had a decent enough week with some big wins today to end with positive units, so I'm not giving that back - that seemed to be my problem a lot last season was giving back profits on the weekend.

Berdych-Wawrinka: Both have not played all that well this week to get to the semis. Berdych's scorelines make him look more dominant than his played has shown. His serve to me could fail him. If Wawrinka is interested, he could win. He likes this tournament.

Malisse-Tipsarevic: Malisse is a bit like Berdych in that his scorelines show dominance, but his play has been pretty solid overall against inferior competition. Tipsarevic struggled a little to put away Nishikori and hasn't been tip-top from set to set. Malisse is one of those guys who sucks you in with a line of good results and then lays an egg ... maybe Tipsarevic in parlays, but this is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest if Malisse serves well.

Federer-Davydenko: Federer for parlay purposes. Don't believe the DONKEY is in good enough form to beat Federer, unless Federer has a poor day. DONKEY's serve is still very breakable.

[Samuraifan]

You're write ups and analyses great are well appreciated.

[EaglesPhan36]

Absolutely the best plays I had this week ... no plays today! The unpredictability of the matches outside of Federer really showed. Roddick-Soderling should be a quality final in Brisbane. Thought on that one is the guy with the best 2nd serve should be the one to win it all. Their first serves when on are pretty much unstoppable, so it will be the ability to get the 2nd serve in and win points I THINK that makes the difference. Roddick did not have a good one against Anderson, but was solid mostly for the rest of the tournament. Soderling has been unbreakable. The one thing working into Roddick's favor here I THINK is their respective records in ATP finals. Soderling was 2-3 in finals last year and is 6-10 in his career in finals. Roddick was 2-2 last year in finals, but is 29-19 lifetime in finals. Remember too that while this is an outdoor tournament, the final is played on Pat Rafter Arena which is a covered, indoor court. Don't know that it tips the scales into anyone's favor, but I think Soderling is more dangerous in a controlled environment. I THINK if you like Soderling, you might wait to see if the public starts backing Roddick as a dog ... he's still an attractive name that Joe Public likes to back especially when they see a price in plus money I would think.

Wawrinka-Malisse is a real toss-up. I'd give a slight edge to Wawrinka because of his past experience in the final at Chennai. He lost to Cilic last year, but over his last four sets this year it looks like maybe the light has clicked on for him and the effort is there now. Malisse is always dangerous because of his serve, but I think he has a smaller margin for error. Good luck with your selections!

[brandoc]

Absolutely the best plays I had this week ... no plays today! The unpredictability of the matches outside of Federer really showed. Roddick-Soderling should be a quality final in Brisbane. Thought on that one is the guy with the best 2nd serve should be the one to win it all. Their first serves when on are pretty much unstoppable, so it will be the ability to get the 2nd serve in and win points I THINK that makes the difference. Roddick did not have a good one against Anderson, but was solid mostly for the rest of the tournament. Soderling has been unbreakable. The one thing working into Roddick's favor here I THINK is their respective records in ATP finals. Soderling was 2-3 in finals last year and is 6-10 in his career in finals. Roddick was 2-2 last year in finals, but is 29-19 lifetime in finals. Remember too that while this is an outdoor tournament, the final is played on Pat Rafter Arena which is a covered, indoor court. Don't know that it tips the scales into anyone's favor, but I think Soderling is more dangerous in a controlled environment. I THINK if you like Soderling, you might wait to see if the public starts backing Roddick as a dog ... he's still an attractive name that Joe Public likes to back especially when they see a price in plus money I would think.

Wawrinka-Malisse is a real toss-up. I'd give a slight edge to Wawrinka because of his past experience in the final at Chennai. He lost to Cilic last year, but over his last four sets this year it looks like maybe the light has clicked on for him and the effort is there now. Malisse is always dangerous because of his serve, but I think he has a smaller margin for error. Good luck with your selections!

I like Soderling in this one, he dismantled Roddick less than two months ago in Paris (indoor hard) again relying on his serve to set-up points and seeing as it's a covered court I doubt the conditions will be varying too much for the final. Roddick also very much looks like he's on decline, as he showed in London at the ATP finals where he went 0 for 3.. even losing to everyone's favourite bunny Berdych.