EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #561
    No, but it's not a great payoff. I think you'd be better suited to Djokovic-Federer and not dish out as much money to start. I think Djokovic has just as good a chance against Berdych as Nadal over Cilic at about 1/3 of the price or so.
    Comment
    • DMB40
      SBR MVP
      • 04-04-09
      • 1258

      #562
      and there you go with over 3.5 sets
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #563
        Ferrer gets the 2nd set. His returning skills are tremendous. Clearly if he breaks Raonic early in a set, he's going to likely take that set. You can see Raonic getting a little frustrated with the errors piling up. Got both totals now as long as both matches go the distance.


        I'm taking a small stake on the Bopanna-Quersehi doubles at +200 now. They might get wiped off the map, but I just don't think Llodra-Nimonjic are that much better.
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #564
          I'm pretty sure I'd like to bang Zvonareva. Her eyes are awesome and the accent, shweet. Pardon my testosterone.
          Comment
          • brandoc
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-18-10
            • 386

            #565
            I like Zvon as well, but too many pies over christmas for mine.

            Nice plays today with the Peng over (does she ALWAYS go to 3?? jeesh) and Raonic set betting. Unbelievable the difference in UE´s between Raonic and Ferrer - something like 60-6!! And Raonic´s not that much out of it...
            Comment
            • EaglesPhan36
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 12-06-06
              • 71662

              #566
              Yeah. These are the types of players he'll have to learn how to beat. Will make the difference between being a Top 25-40 player or Top 10-15.
              Comment
              • labrador
                SBR High Roller
                • 11-29-10
                • 132

                #567
                Heads up on Womens Doubles: Chan / Radwanska v Azarenka / Kirilenko. Is Radwanska exhausted after a 3 setters againts Peng? I smell an opportunity here.
                Comment
                • Schu
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 12-14-10
                  • 4

                  #568
                  Whats better value nadal -2.5 -120 or cilic +2.5 -110 seems high at -110
                  Comment
                  • kazel
                    Restricted User
                    • 08-22-10
                    • 20

                    #569
                    ty for your great picks,what do you think with Wawa chance tonight?
                    Comment
                    • EaglesPhan36
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 12-06-06
                      • 71662

                      #570
                      So much for the all the Nadal illness talk. Think he suckered a lot of people.
                      Comment
                      • DMB40
                        SBR MVP
                        • 04-04-09
                        • 1258

                        #571
                        great calls ep. Do you like any totals tonight
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #572
                          1.24.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

                          DEUCE
                          Starting with Na Li in crafting the DEUCE today. I THINK she is arguably playing the most consistent tennis on the WTA circuit right now. She draws Petkovic who dismissed Sharapova and will be rated by some as another upset shot today. Petkovic is in solid form having shown well in Brisbane, losing in the final and rolling through to this point in Melbourne. She relies on a power game whereas Li is the prototype for defense. She'll run balls down and put them in play, making her opponent work for each point. I THINK the more work that Petkovic is made to do, the more errors that will come. This is also a massive moment, trying to make a Grand Slam semifinal. Li has the experience edge. Pair with Federer-Wawrinka OVER 3.5 Sets.
                          The in-form player on hard courts vs. the Greatest of All Time. Wawrinka is arguably in the best streak of form he's seen in his career. He's absolutely crushed all-comers in Melbourne, showing a solid serve and superb groundstrokes. Federer has shown some inconsistencies here and there, but has done what is needed. I think people have to understand, Federer is human. He loses focus. He makes errors. That is what we have seen. Today he runs into a comrade he knows very well. Head-2-head shows 7-1 in favor of Federer, no shock. What I do like is that Wawrinka took a set off him last time they met in October on an indoor hard court. I THINK Wawrinka will need to improve his 1st serve percentage to 60 or so, but if he's getting that serve in consistently he should be able to press Federer from the start and certainly has shown right now that he can take a set off Federer. Of course, the danger is that this is where the great ones start amping their game up - when they sniff the finish line. However, even if Federer amps his game up, I THINK Wawrinka's level as long as it remains consistent will allow him to stick in this one. Parlay at +147.

                          LADIES DOUBLES: MATTEK-SANDS/SHAUGHNESSY +160
                          This is an intriguing bout as Mattek-Sands & Shaughnessy take on the in-form doubles duo in 2011 in Srebotnik-Peschke. The Srebotnik-Peschke duo has made two finals appearances already in 2011, winning one title. Mattek-Sands & Shaughnessy have yet to lose a match in 2011, winning a match at the Hobart tournament before withdrawing due to Mattek-Sands singles progression in that tournament and they have worked their way now to three more wins here in Melbourne. These two teams met twice late in 2010. Srebotnik-Peschke bested the 1st meeting: 7-5, 6-0 at New Haven then Mattek-Sands & Shaughnessy knocked this team out of the US Open in the 4th round: 6-4, 6-1. So which team steps up today? Both teams had one match hiccups where they had to go three sets, but otherwise have played fairly routine straight sets wins in the other two rounds. Shaughnessy has been a solid doubles competitor for her longer career, while Mattek-Sands has shown promise at a younger age. This duo just got together late last year and the results have been solid, making the QFs at the US Open which was sandwiched around two finals appearances at outdoor hard court tournaments. Certainly Peschke-Srebotnik are seasoned and no slouches, but they did always show the best consistency on this surface last year when paired up. I THINK the skill levels between the two teams are much closer than the line indicates and as last year's scorelines indicated, either team could dominate the other on a given day. Plus money speaks to me here.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #573
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #574
                              Looking like a poor night. Stanny is playing like the scared little girl I think we all knew he really was. World class player > Swiss Miss WaWa. No one way he wins a set unless Roger gifts it to him to make it interesting.
                              Comment
                              • DMB40
                                SBR MVP
                                • 04-04-09
                                • 1258

                                #575
                                ep I saw you said might be worth the under in the woz match. Is it a strong play or not so much. 5dimes has it at 19.
                                Comment
                                • EaglesPhan36
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 12-06-06
                                  • 71662

                                  #576
                                  I don't really like that match with all the uncertainty around Schiavone. She should be gassed and I think she will get rolled. Didn't really like anything but the under was the only thing I think maybe was worth a shot.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #577
                                    Oh well, 0-fer-2 today. Not real fun. Think I might play a Challenger in the morning just to see where my head's at even though that's a crapshoot early in the season - but there's one I like. Good luck with your AO plays the rest of the night.
                                    Comment
                                    • DMB40
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-04-09
                                      • 1258

                                      #578
                                      Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                      I don't really like that match with all the uncertainty around Schiavone. She should be gassed and I think she will get rolled. Didn't really like anything but the under was the only thing I think maybe was worth a shot.


                                      im very tempted to put all my $ on woz ml

                                      I don't bet the tennis as much as you usually just the major tournaments.

                                      -600 shes not gonna lose.... wait did i just jinx it!!!!


                                      i guess atleast i should throw all my pts on it and pick up 200 easy pts
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #579
                                        1.25.11 HEILBRONN CHALLENGER: NILAND +125
                                        Niland takes on Chiudinelli in an indoor hard court Challenger in Germany. Taking a shot here as both have limited action in 2011. On indoor courts in 2010, Niland played a fair amount of matches and closed out the season with a Challenger title on the surface. He went 17-9. Chiudinelli contrastly only played seven matches on the surface and went 1-6. Admittedly, his came against better competition on the ATP level, but Chiudinelli is one of those guys who travels back & forth between ATP and Challenger tournaments and he's just below .500 ins his career at the Challenger level with a 24-25 mark indoors. Looking for the Irishman to use a solid serve and have a shot to score the win in this one on a surface that he looks capable of playing well on against a player like Chiudinelli.
                                        Comment
                                        • brandoc
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-18-10
                                          • 386

                                          #580
                                          EP - if you´re not having a great day with the calls (and me neither btw), and it is kind of technically Tuesday.. i recommend you lay off going large as per one of your previous requests for someone to remind you.


                                          Just saying ; )
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #581
                                            I never go large ... just need to not make many bets ... although last Tuesday was okay. With not many matches, shouldn't be a problem today.
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #582
                                              Challenger play about to start. Not surprised Djokovic layed it on Berdych really. Women's matches today should be much better than the men's - although I am interested in Nadal-Ferrer. Nadal owns him, but Ferrer is in very good form. I think Murray beats Dologpolov comfortably.
                                              Comment
                                              • kingsr
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-23-10
                                                • 1983

                                                #583
                                                Yep I really like the Nadal/Ferrer over 33.5. Ferrer is a weapon and will chase balls all day long. Should be a good match.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #584
                                                  1.25.11 HEILBRONN CHALLENGER: KRAVCHUK +125
                                                  Another good spot play even though it's early on the Challenger circuit. Kravchuk draws Andreas Beck who has been out since a back injury late in 2010. Kravchuk already has some matches under his belt, playing some qualis in Australia. Beck had a poor 2010 and may struggle for fitness early as he tries to come back. He has not played a bunch on the indoor surface since 2009, but he does have experience at this tournament. Kravchuk played pretty well on this surface in 2010 with an 18-8 mark. The Russian has some game, making three hard court Challenger finals. If he serves well and can jump on Beck early, he rates a chance.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • noober
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-23-09
                                                    • 2012

                                                    #585
                                                    good call on Niland!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #586
                                                      Thanks. Just trying a couple. Both of the ones I picked I thought had good advantages to them and at dog prices were worth a roll even though it's real early on the circuit.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • noober
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-23-09
                                                        • 2012

                                                        #587
                                                        any opinion on Krajicek over Venus? A current top college player against a former top college player. Should be closer than the odds indicate imo.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 12-06-06
                                                          • 71662

                                                          #588
                                                          No real opinion on that one. Even though he's not a real hard court guy, Pospisil might be worth a shot in Honolulu against Ouellette. Pospisil is really better on clay, but Ouellette hasn't shown much of anything.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #589
                                                            LoL@Golubev. Going down as a -400 favorite today in Germany. Laying big chalk = bad idea.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #590
                                                              Well split the Challengers. Kravchuck was a schmuck. Beck tried to hand him the 2nd set with two straight service games at 0-40 and he wound up coming back to hold both. Wasn't much to separate them other than Kravchuck couldn't convert break points for shit. Onto Australia ...
                                                              Comment
                                                              • brandoc
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-18-10
                                                                • 386

                                                                #591
                                                                Originally posted by kingsr
                                                                Yep I really like the Nadal/Ferrer over 33.5. Ferrer is a weapon and will chase balls all day long. Should be a good match.

                                                                Even as low as that line is for an over - and Ferrer is a battler yes indeed, I can see Nadal winning this in three quick sets. Currently it´s paying $1,87 which is good enough for a medium sized bet of my money.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • noober
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-23-09
                                                                  • 2012

                                                                  #592
                                                                  Krajicek won 6-4 6-1
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 12-06-06
                                                                    • 71662

                                                                    #593
                                                                    1.25.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN

                                                                    MEN'S DOUBLES: LLODRA-ZIMONJIC [-140]
                                                                    Two teams that decided to "get the band back together" this year makes for an interesting quarterfinal. On one side, you have Michael Llodra and Nenad Zimonjic who are teaming up this year for the first time since 2005. On the other, the Indian duo if Bhupathi-Paes who once were a force in the late 1990s. I'll side with the favorite today as Llodra-Zimonjic have shown true nerve and superior service games this tournament. They have been broken just once in three matches with only two break points offered. Zimonjic might be the best doubles player you've never heard of, the guy has 39 career doubles titles with a variety of partners, 16 of those titles have come in the last two years with his old partner, Daniel Nestor. He decided to dump the aging lefty for a more youthful version in Llodra and it's paid off immediate dividends. Paes-Bhupathi despite their ages [37 each] already won the Chennai doubles title and have three Grand Slam titles together - albeit from more than a decade ago. Interesting to note that Zimonjic has played with both Paes and Bhupathi during his career, but when he's gone against them he's 17-4 against teams that Paes was on and 12-8 I believe against teams with Bhupathi with several of those losses almost ten years ago. I think superior serve and coming in having shown the capability of winning big points in tie breaks bodes well for Llodra-Zimonjic and carries them through in what should be a grueling match.

                                                                    KVITOVA-ZVONAREVA OVER 21 [-115]
                                                                    Battled long & hard on picking Kvitova outright as I had her marked for an upset into the semifinals, but in the end felt this was the safer way to go as Zvonareva's return game may negate Kvitova's power edge. In any case, I THINK this one is going to be a tight affair - be it in two sets or hopefully for the purposes of this bet - an easier cash in three. Kvitova has shown that she isn't going to shy away in this competition and she has a win over Zvonareva - albeit on a different surface - that should mentally give her belief that she can win today. Zvonareva has had an easy draw to this point, so she will be tested for the first time and it will be intriguing to see if she handles having the fight taken to her from the opening bell today. If Kvitova serves well early and can keep Zvonareva on her heels a bit, then this should be very competitive.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • birdmanweezy
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-18-10
                                                                      • 4635

                                                                      #594
                                                                      good luck tonight
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • shari91
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-23-10
                                                                        • 32661

                                                                        #595
                                                                        Best of luck EP! I'm on that totals play as well but at 21.5 unfortunately. So far that is the only thing I like today and may be my only. I've been debating the Dolgo handicap but I think I should just take the money I've made off him already and be thankful he didn't screw me over!
                                                                        Comment
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