Shari's tennis plays

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  • lomb1
    SBR Rookie
    • 06-13-11
    • 12

    #12566
    thanks for the picks!
    Comment
    • hutennis
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 07-11-10
      • 847

      #12567
      Originally posted by shari91
      Obviously a small sample but if someone were to solely have started to chase line movement in the first round of Wimbledon, they would've lost considerably more money than they won. So that's the point I'm trying to make - unless you believe there's an injury, etc that could be affecting the line, following line movement in tennis is futile and would actually cost you money over the long run if you bet every match available.
      What does chasing line movement has to do with beating closing line?

      You said earlier that beating closer does not work in tennis like it does in other sports.
      Now you are saying that chasing is not profitable.

      Looks like you are confusing things a bit over here.
      Comment
      • Pew Pew
        SBR MVP
        • 12-21-10
        • 2267

        #12568
        FUUUUUU Monfils!! Why did I even randomly back him in a parlay at -1400???!!! -_____- Hope he comes back...
        Comment
        • shari91
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 02-23-10
          • 32661

          #12569
          Originally posted by hutennis
          What does chasing line movement has to do with beating closing line? You said earlier that beating closer does not work in tennis like it does in other sports. Now you are saying that chasing is not profitable. Looks like you are confusing things a bit over here.
          Beating the closer does not work. Chasing is not profitable. Two separate points about the same topic. If I bet $2.00 on a player and he drops to $1.80, over the long run that means nothing. If a player starts at $2.00, I see him drop to $1.80 and get on and he closes at $1.70 over the long run that means nothing. Even in that small sample whether you got on before the price started to move or after, you would be out money if the line moved significantly in your favour. That's it. Simple concepts.

          Regardless, I've posted more on the topic than I should have. I've already copped flack about it from a friend and I gain nothing by discussing what numbers over several years have proven to be true. All the best with your bets - I'm off to live bet.
          Comment
          • beefcake
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-26-09
            • 14029

            #12570
            Another win for Vinci...Praying to the lord above that Keo can somehow,anyway upset Kvitova..
            Comment
            • beefcake
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-26-09
              • 14029

              #12571
              Instead of greening out, wonder If I place a futures bet on Kvitova instead if she wins today...Can see her being a dog to anyone except maybe venus and maybe Zvon..
              Comment
              • Pew Pew
                SBR MVP
                • 12-21-10
                • 2267

                #12572
                Wow the little guy is bullying Del Potro right now
                Comment
                • beefcake
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-26-09
                  • 14029

                  #12573
                  Shari, Hantuchova looks fine to me as far as being healthy...If she wins this match, she still would have futures odds of 40 to 45-1 and a big match up vs Azarenka next. I hope you got your that bet locked and loaded on her for that match..
                  Comment
                  • Wulfman14
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-24-10
                    • 8869

                    #12574
                    anyone like malisse over mayer today ? shari your thoughts ?
                    Comment
                    • reformed
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-18-10
                      • 1384

                      #12575
                      beating the closing line is important even if it means nothing in terms of winning %. The bottom line is you are getting the best odds possible for a particular backing .
                      Comment
                      • shari91
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-23-10
                        • 32661

                        #12576
                        Originally posted by beefcake
                        Shari, Hantuchova looks fine to me as far as being healthy...If she wins this match, she still would have futures odds of 40 to 45-1 and a big match up vs Azarenka next. I hope you got your that bet locked and loaded on her for that match..
                        I've got to take a closer look at hers and Aza's stats throughout the week so far. Not sure what I'm thinking about that one yet. I was surprised to see her dispose somewhat easily of Erakovic so I'm going to now assume the injury isn't an issue.

                        Originally posted by Wulfman14
                        anyone like malisse over mayer today ? shari your thoughts ?
                        I literally just finished looking at that match. I like Malisse in that one. Not sure if I'm going to take him yet but that would be my choice.

                        Originally posted by reformed
                        beating the closing line is important even if it means nothing in terms of winning %. The bottom line is you are getting the best odds possible for a particular backing .
                        Yes of course - that's unquestionable. If you randomly win a bet and you've beaten the closing line, then it's obviously better for your bankroll to get the best number. What I was referring to was the strategy that some people utilise with much success in other sports of solely focusing on beating the closing line as their sole determinant in what they choose to bet. In tennis, they aren't any more accurate than the opener at predicting the outcome of the match. Really though, people should collect their own data and determine results for themselves if they're interested. That's the only way to really go about it.
                        Comment
                        • makman
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-31-10
                          • 1019

                          #12577
                          Originally posted by Wulfman14
                          anyone like malisse over mayer today ? shari your thoughts ?
                          I like Malisse in that one, I like -2.5 spread even better
                          Comment
                          • changkaikk
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 10-15-10
                            • 170

                            #12578
                            I too am on Malisse.
                            Good luck everybody
                            Comment
                            • lomb1
                              SBR Rookie
                              • 06-13-11
                              • 12

                              #12579
                              So I'll bet Malisse, no spread
                              Comment
                              • beefcake
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-26-09
                                • 14029

                                #12580
                                Petrova just spanked that Russian Ass!!

                                Future looking good on her.If I can just get some help along the way...
                                Comment
                                • JNic
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-03-10
                                  • 4272

                                  #12581
                                  Originally posted by beefcake
                                  Petrova just spanked that Russian Ass!!

                                  Future looking good on her.If I can just get some help along the way...
                                  I was surprised by this one, but Petrova looks great!
                                  Comment
                                  • rumple
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-19-07
                                    • 2499

                                    #12582
                                    Everyone on Malisse, could be ugly.
                                    Comment
                                    • shari91
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 02-23-10
                                      • 32661

                                      #12583
                                      Originally posted by beefcake
                                      Petrova just spanked that Russian Ass!! Future looking good on her.If I can just get some help along the way...
                                      When Petrova plays, she can kick anyone's butt but to try to get her to string together some wins lately is like pulling teeth. I love seeing her win - she has a lot of power and I much prefer that to the silly moonballers. Hopefully she keeps going for you

                                      Originally posted by rumple
                                      Everyone on Malisse, could be ugly.
                                      I'm staying away so that bodes well for everyone. The way I've been betting lately I'm the Kiss of Death. Plus, I agree. I never seem to be on the right side when it seems a lot of people like the same player.
                                      Comment
                                      • Mirar Baseball
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-05-10
                                        • 1263

                                        #12584
                                        Originally posted by rumple
                                        Everyone on Malisse, could be ugly.
                                        So am I.... +170
                                        Comment
                                        • rumple
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-19-07
                                          • 2499

                                          #12585
                                          Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                          So am I.... +170
                                          Nice call on the live bet, Malisse turned the match around after that awful 1st set.
                                          Comment
                                          • shari91
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 02-23-10
                                            • 32661

                                            #12586
                                            Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                            So am I.... +170
                                            Good job Mirar!!

                                            I'm too emotionally invested in this Hewitt match at the moment to live bet.
                                            Comment
                                            • BobW
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 12-02-10
                                              • 150

                                              #12587
                                              Originally posted by shari91
                                              Good job Mirar!!

                                              I'm too emotionally invested in this Hewitt match at the moment to live bet.
                                              What you wanted to do? Back Söderling?
                                              Comment
                                              • beefcake
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-26-09
                                                • 14029

                                                #12588
                                                Devoest. Go back to Capetown you piece of trash..
                                                Comment
                                                • dendimurah
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 05-19-11
                                                  • 46

                                                  #12589
                                                  Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                                  So am I.... +170
                                                  Wow, congratulation for you.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • beefcake
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-26-09
                                                    • 14029

                                                    #12590
                                                    Heavy betting on Muller..Already down to +4100 from +5100....His mom?

                                                    Vinci is +400 vs Kvitova...No respect vs a player with a 7 match winning streak...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • shari91
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 02-23-10
                                                      • 32661

                                                      #12591
                                                      Originally posted by BobW
                                                      What you wanted to do? Back Söderling?
                                                      No, in the other matches. That's how I've been recovering money from my shitty picks the past few days.

                                                      But instead I've just been watching the Hewitt match and scoring the tennis contests instead. I have no money on the Hewitt match - I'd just like him to win but in reality, I like both players so my heart won't be too broken if he loses.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Mirar Baseball
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 04-05-10
                                                        • 1263

                                                        #12592
                                                        Originally posted by dendimurah
                                                        Wow, congratulation for you.
                                                        Thanks, been a long week.

                                                        Please post something in my Haiku thread. A versed congratulations would do. Also, go bet New York Liberty first half before it crashes more. Incredible movement immediately after first Q first half lines went up on pinnacle. From -2 to -3 in a flash. And I don't think it's done moving. I'm taking NY for the first half, Tulsa for the second.

                                                        WNBA game tips off in an hour
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mirar Baseball
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-05-10
                                                          • 1263

                                                          #12593
                                                          I'm siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinging in the rain.... just siiiiiiiiiiiiiinging in the rain
                                                          Comment
                                                          • unclebuzz1
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 08-23-09
                                                            • 565

                                                            #12594
                                                            Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                                            I'm siiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinging in the rain.... just siiiiiiiiiiiiiinging in the rain
                                                            Are they gonna continue?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mirar Baseball
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-05-10
                                                              • 1263

                                                              #12595


                                                              10+ matches going now

                                                              Almagro up 7-6 7-6 and on serve in the third set against Isner. This match has potential to beat Isner's 2010 record and last for another week.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mirar Baseball
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 04-05-10
                                                                • 1263

                                                                #12596
                                                                Friggin' Dimitrov

                                                                Last Serve Speed:134 mph
                                                                Comment
                                                                • sharlataans
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-13-10
                                                                  • 1927

                                                                  #12597
                                                                  Adidas wins against Nike
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sharlataans
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-13-10
                                                                    • 1927

                                                                    #12598
                                                                    If Meltzer wins tiebreak, he is up 2-1. I will take Tursunov live. He will outwork Meltzer
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • shari91
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 02-23-10
                                                                      • 32661

                                                                      #12599
                                                                      Some of these matches seem to go on so long that I forget if I took the player in their last match or in the one they're currently playing. Just realised I was supposed to be cheering Youzhny on this whole time
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • beefcake
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-26-09
                                                                        • 14029

                                                                        #12600
                                                                        What do you think about Vinci +5?
                                                                        Comment
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