Shari's tennis plays

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  • brandoc
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-18-10
    • 386

    #12356
    Great day Shari! I didn´t have time to check your spreadsheet today before going out but did manage to get some wedge on Hantuchova before going out. What you say about trending down during losing streaks is interesting, I think you also get gun-shy if you haven´t been following the games (watching, seeing interviews, reading the endless comments on TI) as much as you might usually.. I mean stats are all well and good (ie profitable!), but also knowledge of current form and likely swings or if someone has qualies coming up, is relevant too.

    Do you agree?
    Comment
    • shari91
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 02-23-10
      • 32661

      #12357
      Originally posted by reformed
      shari sorry to go off topic, but could you look into why I cannot edit my posts even 1 minute after I post it. I tried talking to samball but he didnt really come up with a solution.
      I'm pretty sure it's because your account is set to No PM's. If you don't have one, you don't have the other (I think). If you send an email to forum@sbrforum.com and explain that you're on No PM's and can't edit, they'll explain to you why and correct it for you if need be.
      Originally posted by brandoc
      Great day Shari! I didn´t have time to check your spreadsheet today before going out but did manage to get some wedge on Hantuchova before going out. What you say about trending down during losing streaks is interesting, I think you also get gun-shy if you haven´t been following the games (watching, seeing interviews, reading the endless comments on TI) as much as you might usually.. I mean stats are all well and good (ie profitable!), but also knowledge of current form and likely swings or if someone has qualies coming up, is relevant too. Do you agree?
      Yeah I definitely think my not being able to watch many matches this week or spend as much time in general on tennis plays a part in it. I think it always does, whether I'm doing well or not. I really don't like betting on players in later rounds in tournaments if I haven't seen at least one of their matches, preferably more. Sometimes that's not feasible obviously because of the camera courts and the time difference so that's when I have to rely on a few trusted people to give me their take on matches. Ideally ones they've managed to see in person. But at the end of the day, each person has their own take on a match and the things I look for that help me out with my betting will be different than someone else.

      I don't really pay attention to what people tip on TI to be honest. I've found that some people tip every match, every day which to me is unrealistic as a bettor; others chase negative winnings by betting solely on dogs; and there are others like me who usually just tip a few day for a couple of weeks at a time and then stop tipping altogether for a stretch for no reason in particular. But even when I'm beyond busy, I always read the interviews people post and their insight, whether I use it or not. The info on there is extremely valuable.

      The part that fails me when I'm busy is that I go from decoding my stats, comparing them to OnCourt and TI and then evaluating the non-number factors to decide on a bet to skimming over everything and placing too much emphasis on my brain, not on numbers. Because really, numbers take a lot of time and it's easy to just gloss over them when I'm in a rush. But I don't do myself any favours by doing that. Although some people prefer to just cap matches, I've never met someone who can win over the long-term at tennis, or on any sport actually, without using math to some degree. I'm sure they exist out there but I just haven't come across them.

      As Mikhail said though, it's variance. When I first started this spreadsheet my % was around 54 for awhile while my units won were lower. But that's because of a crazy run I was on which was unrealistic to maintain. Since then it's always been between 48.5 and 52, only fluctuating 3-4% overall. Now at 465 bets it's at 49.44 which I'm quite happy with considering how many dogs I bet and how many totals are in there seeing as how we all know how bad I am at them for the most part. Truthfully though, the actual % doesn't matter to me. If I had started at 30% and was now at 25% I'd feel the same way. I care about avoiding massive swings and making money, whether I do that hitting 90% or 10%. If I bet favourites all of the time, I'd be sunk money wise especially when I'm sliding down. Just as if I'd maintained 1x instead of dropping to 0.5x I'd be up more with all of the dogs I've hit at 0.5x ie Dolgo +550

      But I put on the spreadsheet what I bet for the most part unless I make a mistake like today with the women. And I'm not going to encourage people to bet 1x on something when I've lost my nerve and only put 0.5x on it myself. That's something I have to work on though personally because it has cost me some decent money.
      Comment
      • and24
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-11-10
        • 334

        #12358
        that was a great explaination shari. Looking forward to next grand slam.
        Comment
        • hutennis
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-11-10
          • 847

          #12359
          Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
          I wouldn't change a thing if I were you. That is, betting 2-3x when you are on a good run is probably a recipe for disaster for most of us (and a recipe for worse ROI for successful bettors like yourself). Just flat betting is probably the way.

          I'm sure if you think real hard you can think of multiple instances when you had hours to research and ended up on the wrong end of a 1-4 cay.

          It's variance. If you move away from flat betting too much you liken yourself to a roulette player. This is a good thing for most of us, but a bad thing for you.

          If edge is not there (true in 95%+ cases), flat betting is the way to prolong an expansive entertainment.
          If edge is there, flat betting is waste of money
          Comment
          • changkaikk
            SBR High Roller
            • 10-15-10
            • 170

            #12360
            Interesting write-up. Thank you
            Comment
            • brandoc
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-18-10
              • 386

              #12361
              Thanks for the reply Shari.. best of luck with the grass season
              Comment
              • Mirar Baseball
                SBR MVP
                • 04-05-10
                • 1263

                #12362
                Originally posted by hutennis
                If edge is not there (true in 95%+ cases), flat betting is the way to prolong an expansive entertainment.
                If edge is there, flat betting is waste of money
                You know what's not waste of money? A crystal ball to correctly predict when to double your wager
                Comment
                • Optional
                  Administrator
                  • 06-10-10
                  • 61457

                  #12363
                  Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                  You know what's not waste of money? A crystal ball to correctly predict when to double your wager
                  Here tis (and it's free!) http://www.google.com/search?q=kelly+criterion
                  .
                  Comment
                  • hutennis
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 07-11-10
                    • 847

                    #12364
                    Yep. Crystal ball has to be very helpful.


                    As far as
                    A bit less intimidating way to put it:

                    You have to win your edge.
                    Last edited by hutennis; 06-12-11, 11:39 AM.
                    Comment
                    • Mirar Baseball
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-05-10
                      • 1263

                      #12365
                      Sure. Let's just use full kelly (better yet, double kelly.. no... 3.5x kelly!!!) and QUICKLY become millionaires. Say NO to time wasting!
                      Comment
                      • hutennis
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-11-10
                        • 847

                        #12366
                        Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                        Sure. Let's just use full kelly (better yet, double kelly.. no... 3.5x kelly!!!) and QUICKLY become millionaires. Say NO to time wasting!
                        Ok. One more time. For our sarcastic (read ignorant) friends.

                        Providing you have an edge, using full Kelly is proven way to
                        QUICKLY become millionaires. How quickly is a function of how large your edge is.

                        If you don't have an edge Kelly is proven way to QUICKLY go broke.
                        But if you don't have an edge, why, as a reasonable person and not a degenerate gambler, would you ever consider wagering in a first place? Say NO to time (and a lot of money!) wasting!
                        Last edited by hutennis; 06-12-11, 12:50 PM.
                        Comment
                        • Mirar Baseball
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-05-10
                          • 1263

                          #12367
                          good luck this week shari
                          Comment
                          • rumple
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-19-07
                            • 2499

                            #12368
                            Good to see Shari on my girlfriend Rus today!
                            Comment
                            • changkaikk
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 10-15-10
                              • 170

                              #12369
                              Best of luck everyone
                              Comment
                              • brucethebear
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-16-10
                                • 724

                                #12370
                                Originally posted by brucethebear
                                I have had a small nibble at Licksiki to win Birmingham @ $14 (with intentions of hedging if possible.)
                                She certainly has the favourable side of the draw, although Grandma Krumm stretched her in the second last night.
                                Winner

                                On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)
                                Comment
                                • beefcake
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-26-09
                                  • 14029

                                  #12371
                                  Nice to Sabine get her 2nd Title today. She has been through a lot in the last 2 years, that setback in the French was difficult to watch, but I'm glad for her. Also she is just too cute and seems to be a girl next door type. Those are some good odds there Bruce for Wimby, if her serve is on she is going to be tough to beat, she has the talent when healthy to compete with the big girls..
                                  Comment
                                  • shari91
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-23-10
                                    • 32661

                                    #12372
                                    Originally posted by brucethebear
                                    Winner On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)
                                    Woohooo!!!! Great job, bruce!!

                                    Originally posted by beefcake
                                    Nice to Sabine get her 2nd Title today. She has been through a lot in the last 2 years, that setback in the French was difficult to watch, but I'm glad for her. Also she is just too cute and seems to be a girl next door type. Those are some good odds there Bruce for Wimby, if her serve is on she is going to be tough to beat, she has the talent when healthy to compete with the big girls..
                                    Yeah I really like her. It's hard not to cheer for against basically anyone these days. Such a great way to make up for the French. That was horrific.
                                    Comment
                                    • shari91
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 02-23-10
                                      • 32661

                                      #12373
                                      I have no clue why I bothered with Kvitova today. I used her to beef up a parlay because I wanted to limit the juice I paid but when her serve is off, it's frightening. 5 DFs in a set is not acceptable. Even for the WTA
                                      Comment
                                      • Mirar Baseball
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-05-10
                                        • 1263

                                        #12374
                                        Originally posted by brucethebear
                                        Winner

                                        On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)
                                        Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!
                                        Comment
                                        • shari91
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-23-10
                                          • 32661

                                          #12375
                                          Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                          Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!
                                          Yeah, no kidding!! I just took her at $41 so I can play the green out game with Bruce. I probably got her at the same book he did and he's more than doubled my price

                                          Even though Rudi fukked me on my last future bet, I still have fun with them even when I lose because I normally don't/can't put enough on them to really hurt too much. I just rarely think to look at them.
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #12376
                                            I got Kvitova to win this tournament, but agree - WTF were you thinking?


                                            Was going to fade Dimitrov today too, but could not find anything to suggest Evans was worth the long punt .. of course he's demolishing him early.
                                            Comment
                                            • shari91
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 02-23-10
                                              • 32661

                                              #12377
                                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                              I got Kvitova to win this tournament, but agree - WTF were you thinking? Was going to fade Dimitrov today too, but could not find anything to suggest Evans was worth the long punt .. of course he's demolishing him early.
                                              lol

                                              To be honest I was thinking: Holy shit, I accidentally put $200 on the Tursunov under and I need to protect my azzzzzzz by saving cash elsewhere in case it doesn't hit
                                              A book here had the total set as Under 225. I put it into my slip to remind me to jump onto live chat and tell them to correct it but then I got distracted by live chat here. Rushed over to put my bets in and just bet it along with the other ones in my slip. Luckily it hit and luckily they still paid out because they really should've just voided it on me.
                                              Last edited by shari91; 06-13-11, 10:30 AM.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #12378
                                                You got some guts betting a Tursunov under. Nice hit.
                                                Comment
                                                • shari91
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-23-10
                                                  • 32661

                                                  #12379
                                                  Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                  You got some guts betting a Tursunov under. Nice hit.


                                                  Considering they didn't cancel it, I wonder if they got hit big on that. I imagine people would've started to pound it to take a shot in the off chance the book missed it. Sad thing is the books here make stupid ass mistakes quite often ie NBA HT line of 181
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mirar Baseball
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-05-10
                                                    • 1263

                                                    #12380
                                                    lu breaks back... 3-3 in set 1
                                                    Comment
                                                    • samus82
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 04-16-10
                                                      • 403

                                                      #12381
                                                      Hey shari, hows things mate?

                                                      How did you get on at the French? I had a decent run myself. Looking forward to the grass court season now.

                                                      Would be interested to hear some of your thoughts on Wimbledon if you have any.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • sharlataans
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 08-13-10
                                                        • 1927

                                                        #12382
                                                        Been ice cold lately. My small play leans:

                                                        Haider-Maurer Andreas +164 (If it is possible will take him as 1st set winner. He usually comes out strong)
                                                        Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 = -120 (I did not copy from EP, just came up with the same pick!)
                                                        Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 + Date Kimiko -227 = +164
                                                        Last edited by sharlataans; 06-14-11, 12:24 AM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mirar Baseball
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-05-10
                                                          • 1263

                                                          #12383
                                                          Let's get even for the week! (and then some)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • shari91
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 02-23-10
                                                            • 32661

                                                            #12384
                                                            Originally posted by samus82
                                                            Hey shari, hows things mate?

                                                            How did you get on at the French? I had a decent run myself. Looking forward to the grass court season now.

                                                            Would be interested to hear some of your thoughts on Wimbledon if you have any.
                                                            Hey. No real Wimbledon thoughts for me until I see the draw. Just really excited that Serena will be there to make the WTA interesting again. Hope all is well

                                                            Originally posted by sharlataans
                                                            Been ice cold lately. My small play leans:

                                                            Haider-Maurer Andreas +164 (If it is possible will take him as 1st set winner. He usually comes out strong)
                                                            Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 = -120 (I did not copy from EP, just came up with the same pick!)
                                                            Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 + Date Kimiko -227 = +164
                                                            Best of luck! Yesterday I ended up in the hole as well but I'm not expecting this much out of this week at all. The week before a Slam is just a crapshoot. Hoping to just minimise my losses and if I'm lucky, come out with a bit of profit

                                                            Hopefully we can come out ahead today Mirar
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SoV
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-21-10
                                                              • 6420

                                                              #12385
                                                              Come to chat if possible.
                                                              FML

                                                              http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-han...scussions.html
                                                              Comment
                                                              • brucethebear
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 08-16-10
                                                                • 724

                                                                #12386
                                                                Originally posted by shari91
                                                                Yeah, no kidding!! I just took her at $41 so I can play the green out game with Bruce. I probably got her at the same book he did and he's more than doubled my price
                                                                Cheers guys. Nice to have one of these come off.
                                                                Shari, hopefully we get a bit further with Sabine than we did with Melzer
                                                                Comment
                                                                • brucethebear
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 08-16-10
                                                                  • 724

                                                                  #12387
                                                                  Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                                                  Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!
                                                                  Yeah mate. Pretty much as soon as she beat Peng. She hadn't dropped a set at that stage.
                                                                  She was at $67 before the final started.

                                                                  Anyway, looking forward to us all making some green when Wimbledon starts.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • sharlataans
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-13-10
                                                                    • 1927

                                                                    #12388
                                                                    Look Serena forgot how to play
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Mirar Baseball
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-05-10
                                                                      • 1263

                                                                      #12389
                                                                      Originally posted by sharlataans
                                                                      Look Serena forgot how to play
                                                                      Nononono, it's obvious to me she maxed out all her betting accounts picking Pironkova to win set 1 at +250.

                                                                      GO VPN betting!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • sharlataans
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-13-10
                                                                        • 1927

                                                                        #12390
                                                                        Clijsters is not going to get far in London. Going to fade her when I have a chance
                                                                        Comment
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