Shari's tennis plays

[brandoc]

Great day Shari! I didn´t have time to check your spreadsheet today before going out but did manage to get some wedge on Hantuchova before going out. What you say about trending down during losing streaks is interesting, I think you also get gun-shy if you haven´t been following the games (watching, seeing interviews, reading the endless comments on TI) as much as you might usually.. I mean stats are all well and good (ie profitable!), but also knowledge of current form and likely swings or if someone has qualies coming up, is relevant too.

Do you agree?

[shari91]

shari sorry to go off topic, but could you look into why I cannot edit my posts even 1 minute after I post it. I tried talking to samball but he didnt really come up with a solution.

I'm pretty sure it's because your account is set to No PM's. If you don't have one, you don't have the other (I think). If you send an email to forum@sbrforum.com and explain that you're on No PM's and can't edit, they'll explain to you why and correct it for you if need be.

Great day Shari! I didn´t have time to check your spreadsheet today before going out but did manage to get some wedge on Hantuchova before going out. What you say about trending down during losing streaks is interesting, I think you also get gun-shy if you haven´t been following the games (watching, seeing interviews, reading the endless comments on TI) as much as you might usually.. I mean stats are all well and good (ie profitable!), but also knowledge of current form and likely swings or if someone has qualies coming up, is relevant too. Do you agree?

Yeah I definitely think my not being able to watch many matches this week or spend as much time in general on tennis plays a part in it. I think it always does, whether I'm doing well or not. I really don't like betting on players in later rounds in tournaments if I haven't seen at least one of their matches, preferably more. Sometimes that's not feasible obviously because of the camera courts and the time difference so that's when I have to rely on a few trusted people to give me their take on matches. Ideally ones they've managed to see in person. But at the end of the day, each person has their own take on a match and the things I look for that help me out with my betting will be different than someone else.

I don't really pay attention to what people tip on TI to be honest. I've found that some people tip every match, every day which to me is unrealistic as a bettor; others chase negative winnings by betting solely on dogs; and there are others like me who usually just tip a few day for a couple of weeks at a time and then stop tipping altogether for a stretch for no reason in particular. But even when I'm beyond busy, I always read the interviews people post and their insight, whether I use it or not. The info on there is extremely valuable.

The part that fails me when I'm busy is that I go from decoding my stats, comparing them to OnCourt and TI and then evaluating the non-number factors to decide on a bet to skimming over everything and placing too much emphasis on my brain, not on numbers. Because really, numbers take a lot of time and it's easy to just gloss over them when I'm in a rush. But I don't do myself any favours by doing that. Although some people prefer to just cap matches, I've never met someone who can win over the long-term at tennis, or on any sport actually, without using math to some degree. I'm sure they exist out there but I just haven't come across them.

As Mikhail said though, it's variance. When I first started this spreadsheet my % was around 54 for awhile while my units won were lower. But that's because of a crazy run I was on which was unrealistic to maintain. Since then it's always been between 48.5 and 52, only fluctuating 3-4% overall. Now at 465 bets it's at 49.44 which I'm quite happy with considering how many dogs I bet and how many totals are in there seeing as how we all know how bad I am at them for the most part. Truthfully though, the actual % doesn't matter to me. If I had started at 30% and was now at 25% I'd feel the same way. I care about avoiding massive swings and making money, whether I do that hitting 90% or 10%. If I bet favourites all of the time, I'd be sunk money wise especially when I'm sliding down. Just as if I'd maintained 1x instead of dropping to 0.5x I'd be up more with all of the dogs I've hit at 0.5x ie Dolgo +550

But I put on the spreadsheet what I bet for the most part unless I make a mistake like today with the women. And I'm not going to encourage people to bet 1x on something when I've lost my nerve and only put 0.5x on it myself. That's something I have to work on though personally because it has cost me some decent money.

[and24]

that was a great explaination shari. Looking forward to next grand slam.

[hutennis]

I wouldn't change a thing if I were you. That is, betting 2-3x when you are on a good run is probably a recipe for disaster for most of us (and a recipe for worse ROI for successful bettors like yourself). Just flat betting is probably the way.

I'm sure if you think real hard you can think of multiple instances when you had hours to research and ended up on the wrong end of a 1-4 cay.

It's variance. If you move away from flat betting too much you liken yourself to a roulette player. This is a good thing for most of us, but a bad thing for you.

If edge is not there (true in 95%+ cases), flat betting is the way to prolong an expansive entertainment.
If edge is there, flat betting is waste of money

[changkaikk]

Interesting write-up. Thank you

[brandoc]

Thanks for the reply Shari.. best of luck with the grass season

[Mirar Baseball]

If edge is not there (true in 95%+ cases), flat betting is the way to prolong an expansive entertainment.
If edge is there, flat betting is waste of money

You know what's not waste of money? A crystal ball to correctly predict when to double your wager

[Optional]

You know what's not waste of money? A crystal ball to correctly predict when to double your wager

Here tis (and it's free!) http://www.google.com/search?q=kelly+criterion

[hutennis]

Yep. Crystal ball has to be very helpful.


As far as

Here tis (and it's free!) http://www.google.com/search?q=kelly+criterion

A bit less intimidating way to put it:

You have to win your edge.

[Mirar Baseball]

Sure. Let's just use full kelly (better yet, double kelly.. no... 3.5x kelly!!!) and QUICKLY become millionaires. Say NO to time wasting!

[hutennis]

Sure. Let's just use full kelly (better yet, double kelly.. no... 3.5x kelly!!!) and QUICKLY become millionaires. Say NO to time wasting!

Ok. One more time. For our sarcastic (read ignorant) friends.

Providing you have an edge, using full Kelly is proven way to
QUICKLY become millionaires. How quickly is a function of how large your edge is.

If you don't have an edge Kelly is proven way to QUICKLY go broke.
But if you don't have an edge, why, as a reasonable person and not a degenerate gambler, would you ever consider wagering in a first place? Say NO to time (and a lot of money!) wasting!

[Mirar Baseball]

good luck this week shari

[rumple]

Good to see Shari on my girlfriend Rus today!

[changkaikk]

Best of luck everyone

[brucethebear]

I have had a small nibble at Licksiki to win Birmingham @ $14 (with intentions of hedging if possible.)
She certainly has the favourable side of the draw, although Grandma Krumm stretched her in the second last night.

Winner

On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)

[beefcake]

Nice to Sabine get her 2nd Title today. She has been through a lot in the last 2 years, that setback in the French was difficult to watch, but I'm glad for her. Also she is just too cute and seems to be a girl next door type. Those are some good odds there Bruce for Wimby, if her serve is on she is going to be tough to beat, she has the talent when healthy to compete with the big girls..

[shari91]

Winner On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)

Woohooo!!!! Great job, bruce!!

Nice to Sabine get her 2nd Title today. She has been through a lot in the last 2 years, that setback in the French was difficult to watch, but I'm glad for her. Also she is just too cute and seems to be a girl next door type. Those are some good odds there Bruce for Wimby, if her serve is on she is going to be tough to beat, she has the talent when healthy to compete with the big girls..

Yeah I really like her. It's hard not to cheer for against basically anyone these days. Such a great way to make up for the French. That was horrific.

[shari91]

I have no clue why I bothered with Kvitova today. I used her to beef up a parlay because I wanted to limit the juice I paid but when her serve is off, it's frightening. 5 DFs in a set is not acceptable. Even for the WTA

[Mirar Baseball]

Winner

On her at $101 to win Wimby. (Again intending to hedge if possible.)

Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!

[shari91]

Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!

Yeah, no kidding!! I just took her at $41 so I can play the green out game with Bruce. I probably got her at the same book he did and he's more than doubled my price

Even though Rudi fukked me on my last future bet, I still have fun with them even when I lose because I normally don't/can't put enough on them to really hurt too much. I just rarely think to look at them.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got Kvitova to win this tournament, but agree - WTF were you thinking?


Was going to fade Dimitrov today too, but could not find anything to suggest Evans was worth the long punt .. of course he's demolishing him early.

[shari91]

I got Kvitova to win this tournament, but agree - WTF were you thinking? Was going to fade Dimitrov today too, but could not find anything to suggest Evans was worth the long punt .. of course he's demolishing him early.

lol

To be honest I was thinking: Holy shit, I accidentally put $200 on the Tursunov under and I need to protect my azzzzzzz by saving cash elsewhere in case it doesn't hit
A book here had the total set as Under 225. I put it into my slip to remind me to jump onto live chat and tell them to correct it but then I got distracted by live chat here. Rushed over to put my bets in and just bet it along with the other ones in my slip. Luckily it hit and luckily they still paid out because they really should've just voided it on me.

[EaglesPhan36]

You got some guts betting a Tursunov under. Nice hit.

[shari91]

You got some guts betting a Tursunov under. Nice hit.

Considering they didn't cancel it, I wonder if they got hit big on that. I imagine people would've started to pound it to take a shot in the off chance the book missed it. Sad thing is the books here make stupid ass mistakes quite often ie NBA HT line of 181

[Mirar Baseball]

lu breaks back... 3-3 in set 1

[samus82]

Hey shari, hows things mate?

How did you get on at the French? I had a decent run myself. Looking forward to the grass court season now.

Would be interested to hear some of your thoughts on Wimbledon if you have any.

[sharlataans]

Been ice cold lately. My small play leans:

Haider-Maurer Andreas +164 (If it is possible will take him as 1st set winner. He usually comes out strong)
Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 = -120 (I did not copy from EP, just came up with the same pick!)
Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 + Date Kimiko -227 = +164

[Mirar Baseball]

Let's get even for the week! (and then some)

[shari91]

Hey shari, hows things mate?

How did you get on at the French? I had a decent run myself. Looking forward to the grass court season now.

Would be interested to hear some of your thoughts on Wimbledon if you have any.

Hey. No real Wimbledon thoughts for me until I see the draw. Just really excited that Serena will be there to make the WTA interesting again. Hope all is well

Been ice cold lately. My small play leans:

Haider-Maurer Andreas +164 (If it is possible will take him as 1st set winner. He usually comes out strong)
Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 = -120 (I did not copy from EP, just came up with the same pick!)
Bartoli Marion -277 + Malisse Xavier -285 + Date Kimiko -227 = +164

Best of luck! Yesterday I ended up in the hole as well but I'm not expecting this much out of this week at all. The week before a Slam is just a crapshoot. Hoping to just minimise my losses and if I'm lucky, come out with a bit of profit

Hopefully we can come out ahead today Mirar

[SoV]

Come to chat if possible.

[brucethebear]

Yeah, no kidding!! I just took her at $41 so I can play the green out game with Bruce. I probably got her at the same book he did and he's more than doubled my price

Cheers guys. Nice to have one of these come off.
Shari, hopefully we get a bit further with Sabine than we did with Melzer

[brucethebear]

Good move. You placed this last week, before she beat Hantucova? I dont see anything better than $60 right now. Respect!

Yeah mate. Pretty much as soon as she beat Peng. She hadn't dropped a set at that stage.
She was at $67 before the final started.

Anyway, looking forward to us all making some green when Wimbledon starts.

[sharlataans]

Look Serena forgot how to play

[Mirar Baseball]

Look Serena forgot how to play

Nononono, it's obvious to me she maxed out all her betting accounts picking Pironkova to win set 1 at +250.

GO VPN betting!

[sharlataans]

Clijsters is not going to get far in London. Going to fade her when I have a chance