Shari's tennis plays

[Ruff]

one more point Mayer
come on now!!!
got it

[koscheckbaby]

I followed the Errani/Troicki/Raonic parlay. Was too late on a few of the others.

[koscheckbaby]

BSD Alert for Thursday: Dustin Brown over Radek Stepanek? Doubt Brown replicates his performance over Wawrinka ... but Stepanek isn't very consistent these days. BSD may have a shot.

LoL at BSD sticking. I can't get on Brown though, since he sucks. He overachieved one match. Should that really make him a guy to back? Initially thought -300 was reasonable for Stepanek to throw in a parlay, but I'm just gonna observe.

[Laker_crazy]

We both cash our bet Shari Hun.....

[Ruff]

Garcia-Lopez set points .... and blown them brutal
lets get 2 straight and bury Devvarman

Set 2 Garcia-Lopez buried Devvarman
time to do the same in the 3rd

[shari91]

We both cash our bet Shari Hun.....

Yeah, I just saw that! Congrats
Looks like Larsson cashed for me too which is a nice start to the day. Hopefully it doesn't all go pear shaped from here on out

Best of luck with your other bets today

[Ruff]

We both cash our bet Shari Hun.....

grats

[shari91]

Shit, Gil price rose 15 cents. Tempted to put some more on it but I should probably play it safe and stick to just one unit.

[Laker_crazy]

grats

Thanks mate

[Laker_crazy]

Yeah, I just saw that! Congrats Looks like Larsson cashed for me too which is a nice start to the day. Hopefully it doesn't all go pear shaped from here on out Best of luck with your other bets today

Congrats on that one too hun,i just have zverev to cover the handicap vs tipsarevic,i don't like tipsarevic at all.Tell me something,do you think Gremelmayr has a chance to win 8 games against Kolshreiber?

[sharlataans]

let's party!

[shari91]

Congrats on that one too hun,i just have zverev to cover the handicap vs tipsarevic,i don't like tipsarevic at all.Tell me something,do you think Gremelmayr has a chance to win 8 games against Kolshreiber?

Yeah, 8 is definitely a possibility. If this was a few years ago, Kohl would smoke him but the difference between the 2 isn't worthy of a Nadal/quali handicap. That being said though, if Gremel decides not to show up it could get ugly. But yeah, I'd try 8 for a bit.

[Laker_crazy]

Yeah, 8 is definitely a possibility. If this was a few years ago, Kohl would smoke him but the difference between the 2 isn't worthy of a Nadal/quali handicap. That being said though, if Gremel decides not to show up it could get ugly. But yeah, I'd try 8 for a bit.

Thanks hun,i was thinking of taking it in play,so just thought of asking here because i liked it too,Good luck on the remaining bets,Cash them all

[Laker_crazy]

Shari this commentator in the Kolscheiber match is so irritating....seems like he has taken an overdoze of Viagra

[shari91]

Haha - I'm not watching it. Just finishing my mod shift soon so I'm getting a few things done before then. Can imagine though - some of these commentators for smaller tournaments are seriously wacked out.

I'll tell you though this is the 2nd day in a row I've had Barrois in my bet slip and took her out for someone else who went on to lose. Well, I put Zakopalova in instead and she probably won't cover the handicap. I know you don't really bet the women but this chick is on fire.

[Laker_crazy]

Haha - I'm not watching it. Just finishing my mod shift soon so I'm getting a few things done before then. Can imagine though - some of these commentators for smaller tournaments are seriously wacked out. I'll tell you though this is the 2nd day in a row I've had Barrois in my bet slip and took her out for someone else who went on to lose. Well, I put Zakopalova in instead and she probably won't cover the handicap. I know you don't really bet the women but this chick is on fire.

You bet,these commentators need reality check,like seriously ,you won't believe i was looking at this matchup earlier today and i myself like Barrois because kleybanova looked pretty weird in her match yesterday,you are right i don't bet women as such but i have played one bet on them and it cashed,so might take a look at this chick,Thanks and good luck again

[MrGambler]

Go Anderson....cash that play right now!!! up 4-2 2 set....

Shari - i picked Larsson to win + more units to win 2 set
same with Anderson.....thx to you!

Thanks for all your great insights you are truly amazing....

Edit: 5-2 Anderson wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii

[gangeriver]

did Nadal join the game instead of Zakopalova? what happend ? Women suprised me always

[shari91]

Great job MrGambler!

Just so you know in case you're not that familiar with my thread - when I post less than one unit on a play it's not because I like it less than something else or because the odds scare me off. It's because there is some other aspect involved other than just pure stats - I'm either fading a player because I think their form is off but have no numbers to support it, think the player's opponent may tank or their motivation isn't there (which was why I took Anderson) or some other funky reason.

On another note, whatever happens in this GGL match, I'm not touching him for the rest of the clay season. Please remind me if you see me bet him as I'll buy it back immediately.

[MrGambler]

Thanks Shari!

Agree regarding GGL - could not be trusted at all...had some live cash on him after the first set but cashed out in time since he played horrible...and top of all i see that Devvarman won......jesus....GGL you are truly a trash player right now

[dude_bg]

i am starting to look for betting on other sports, once NBA is over, so i wanted to ask a question. I checked your spreadsheet and it says u have made like 52 units profit per 300 picks. Which is like 1 unit per every 6 picks. Is this good? Can't tell myself, as i bet game or two a day and have like 100-150 picks for NBA all season.

[shari91]

i am starting to look for betting on other sports, once NBA is over, so i wanted to ask a question. I checked your spreadsheet and it says u have made like 52 units profit per 300 picks. Which is like 1 unit per every 6 picks. Is this good? Can't tell myself, as i bet game or two a day and have like 100-150 picks for NBA all season.

I actually just posed this to a few math guys. I think the units made are ok because it's over 1 unit for every 6 picks and many of my plays are less than 1 unit but I want to make sure before I answer you.

[dude_bg]

..........Ignore this

[guil0000]

as far as I'm concerned I think 50 units in 300 unit risks is killing it... on another note have you been betting tennis for a long time and has this win rate been around the same

[shari91]

ah that would change things a bit, you have risked 287 units and won 164, so for every unit you get like 0.5 units profit. I think it is good

Yeah, it's a bit difficult because from what I'm being told because the money lines in tennis vary so much, you can't calculate it as if I were betting -110 on NBA plays. I'm stealing this from a poster who answer me on another site but he said if you are hitting 90% for instance on an avg of -950 lines you aren't doing so well. (I've never bet -950 or even close. I think -200 or so is the lowest you'll ever see here in the past year and that's very, very rare.) Then he said: If you are hitting 25% on +800 lines you'd prob get collared, as in booted from books. Generally speaking 52.4% is the benchmark for breaking even on -110.

So I guess with tennis, and especially the way I bet, I don't really fit in a neat group. I know I make money from my tennis bets but if I'm making it at a lower or higher percentage than what I should be, I honestly have no clue as I'm truly not a math girl when it comes to this stuff.

as far as I'm concerned I think 50 units in 300 unit risks is killing it... on another note have you been betting tennis for a long time and has this win rate been around the same

Yeah, I've been betting tennis for quite a few years. Some years more seriously than others depending on what was going on in my life. But even when I wasn't betting every day, the things I use to help me make my bets were always being collected - often by a friend. A lot of this was before the creation of various sites out there that can really help you with your tennis capping because they collate stats and other variables for you. You just have to decide how to interpret them so you and I can look at the exact same numbers but we'll weight them differently more often than not.

As far as my win rate right now, I'm actually doing a bit worse than when I started this thread I think in April through December. I mean I'm very happy with my progress, especially because I've somewhat changed how I post bets on here. I lower my units at times to signal that I'm making a play a bit differently than I normally do and I'm using a lot more handicaps in order to make them safer for the people who tail me. Several posters in here have suggested I just strictly post the dogs themselves instead of the handicaps as I hit at a decent rate with them. But this was only meant to be a one day thread so I'm still quite uncomfortable knowing other people are risking their money partially based on what I post so I try to keep it as conservative as possible. It's just like if I posted every bet as 1 unit. My overall total units won as far as SBR is concerned would be much higher but I wouldn't feel comfortable telling others to take the risks I do.

[EaglesPhan36]

BSD Brown swingin' so far

[dude_bg]

thanks for the time spent answering my question. , there should be a reason your thread is the most viewed in the tennis handicapping section.

Gluck with your plays

[guil0000]

Thanks for the answer Shari!

[Ruff]

tiebreaks are brutal today
time to turn them our way

[shari91]

tiebreaks are brutal today time to turn them our way

I hope so! That's what I meant yesterday about just having a few lucky breaks. There are some days that no matter who I pick, the flukiest stuff happens. Or at least things that are pretty hard to achieve in tennis ie coming back from 4-1 down on your opponent's serve to win the set and even the match. Other times it's just not meant to be. Still hanging in there though

[shari91]

dude - I just got a response from the biggest mathy pro gambler I'm lucky to "know". He said you take your $ units won/$ units bet and most pros are happy with anything over 3%. If I calculated right, then I'm really happy now!

[sharlataans]

What about Tipsarevic vs. Zverev? Is Zverev a person who can put a pressure? I am contemplating OVER 20.5 here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Turdasco came to play today. Hopefully his ADHD kicks in soon, but I think Gil is too shitty today for that to matter.

[Ruff]

Shari is there a reason why brown an troicki show pushes on your sheet ?
maybe i missed something again LOL

[Ruff]

dude - I just got a response from the biggest mathy pro gambler I'm lucky to "know". He said you take your $ units won/$ units bet and most pros are happy with anything over 3%. If I calculated right, then I'm really happy now!