Shari's tennis plays

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  • Optional
    Administrator
    • 06-10-10
    • 61517

    #9346
    Originally posted by shari91
    I really don't like betting on Potato
    .
    Comment
    • blackbeSSt
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-06-08
      • 9398

      #9347
      Originally posted by Optional
      Potito Starace i'd imagine
      Comment
      • Optional
        Administrator
        • 06-10-10
        • 61517

        #9348
        Thanks (duh @ me)


        Anyone think either Aussie girl will win their Fed Cup matches today?

        Schiavone/Pennetta/Italy Win Tie +482 'feels' like pretty good value, even against the home court advantage.
        .
        Comment
        • Ruff
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 06-10-10
          • 647

          #9349
          Originally posted by shari91
          He's a prick. Honestly that is such a bad move I can't even comprehend it. His first match is a walkover and then when he's down 5-2 he retires. I didn't have a cent on that match at all but he can go get fukked. Thanks for coming out for the paycheck Casket.
          cost me large had a 2unit par Izak +155/Berrer +185 2units to win12.54
          **** him
          Comment
          • shari91
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 02-23-10
            • 32661

            #9350
            Originally posted by Ruff
            cost me large had a 2unit par Izak +155/Berrer +185 2units to win12.54
            **** him
            That's terrible. A friend and I liked Izak and then chickened out. Good on you for taking him!

            Sorry - Internet has gone shit here thanks to the storms so my only posted play is Starace/Anderson 2 units :$
            Comment
            • Optional
              Administrator
              • 06-10-10
              • 61517

              #9351
              Originally posted by Optional
              Wow Shari. You have an impressive 2011 record of picking off top seeds so far.

              Ciblukova +400 over Wozzi in Sydney Rnd 1
              Li Na -110 over Wozzi in Melbourne SF
              Dancevic +220 over Lopez in Joberg Rnd 1
              Zeballos +425 over Nalby in Santiago R16


              Waiting for you to tip against Cilic in Zagreb now ;-)
              I went for it even if you didn't in the end, so I'm counting it.

              Mayer +200 over Cilic in Zagreb QF
              .
              Comment
              • beefcake
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-26-09
                • 14029

                #9352
                Mayer!!
                Comment
                • beefcake
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-26-09
                  • 14029

                  #9353
                  Frenchie is playing super well today in the M man. That future looks great!
                  Comment
                  • erkanua
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-18-10
                    • 773

                    #9354
                    Congrats for Mayer suggestions Shari!
                    Comment
                    • BathingApe
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 08-18-10
                      • 846

                      #9355
                      Thoughts on foggy?
                      Comment
                      • JNic
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-03-10
                        • 4272

                        #9356
                        good call with mayer, cilic really is done
                        Comment
                        • Pride
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-12-10
                          • 4238

                          #9357
                          Cilic is on our hate list for a reason

                          How's it going Shari. I am back for the foreseeable future so I will be sure to help out in the tennis section.
                          Comment
                          • BathingApe
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 08-18-10
                            • 846

                            #9358
                            Wish I saw the writeup on the cilic match before I put the bet in.
                            Comment
                            • Pride
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-12-10
                              • 4238

                              #9359
                              potato is trash
                              Comment
                              • Ruff
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 06-10-10
                                • 647

                                #9360
                                Originally posted by shari91
                                That's terrible. A friend and I liked Izak and then chickened out. Good on you for taking him!

                                Sorry - Internet has gone shit here thanks to the storms so my only posted play is Starace/Anderson 2 units :$
                                Shari your par cashed congrats
                                Comment
                                • MUHerd37
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-23-09
                                  • 12816

                                  #9361
                                  Anyone else liking Schiavone against Groth???
                                  Comment
                                  • shari91
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 02-23-10
                                    • 32661

                                    #9362
                                    Originally posted by beefcake
                                    Frenchie is playing super well today in the M man. That future looks great!
                                    This future bet is going to give me grey hairs now. I put a unit on it thinking I'd have a great trading opportunity earlier in the tournament and green out some - obviously not the whole $10,000. Now though, it's getting serious. I honestly thought since I had picked ok with the futures in the Aussie Open that my luck had been used up for the year. Cripes - it's very hard to hedge this one with that much money involved.

                                    Happy to see the parlay and Mayer cashed. Sorry I couldn't get on here to confirm Mayer in time, but by the time my Internet was up again the match had started. Hopefully a few of you jumped on.
                                    Comment
                                    • noober
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 10-23-09
                                      • 2012

                                      #9363
                                      Definitely hedge it!
                                      Comment
                                      • yoshiments
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 01-27-11
                                        • 45

                                        #9364
                                        What future are you talking about?
                                        Comment
                                        • shari91
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-23-10
                                          • 32661

                                          #9365
                                          Originally posted by noober
                                          Definitely hedge it!
                                          Yeah, that's what I'm thinking. If I put $1000 on Anderson and he wins I'll get $300 after I take out what I spent on the future. If Mannarino wins then I'm down $1000 but then can hedge again in the final. Bloody hell. After this I'm not touching futures again for awhile.

                                          Yoshi, I have a future bet on Mannarino at $51 from before the tournament started. I've bumped the thread I posted it in so you could see.
                                          Comment
                                          • Ruff
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 06-10-10
                                            • 647

                                            #9366
                                            I find the only way to play futures is that the play needs to be favored "or close to favorites" in the later stages of the tourneys to get any kind of hedge value. I have that problem with the Steelers at 23-1. I lost a large hedge on the Jet/Steeler game.
                                            I have no idea why the packers are favored....anyway I need to lay -145 on GB on a hedge ...could have been worse but you hope for you future play to be favored late.
                                            Gluck Shari and keep on rolling along.
                                            Comment
                                            • BathingApe
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 08-18-10
                                              • 846

                                              #9367
                                              Man, you should've got at it when it was -2, then you could've got it relatively cheaper. At one point my book had packers -120 lol
                                              Comment
                                              • shari91
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 02-23-10
                                                • 32661

                                                #9368
                                                You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.
                                                Comment
                                                • yoshiments
                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                  • 01-27-11
                                                  • 45

                                                  #9369
                                                  Very well done Shari. Wish I had seen that earlier...good luck if you decide to hedge
                                                  Comment
                                                  • yoshiments
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 01-27-11
                                                    • 45

                                                    #9370
                                                    Shari, Giraldo or Starace?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • rickosu
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 10-21-09
                                                      • 21

                                                      #9371
                                                      Originally posted by shari91
                                                      You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.
                                                      assuming your able to bet up to 3k on futures at the book you use (if you're outside the us, i'd imagine you could but im not positive), you could bet on all the other players to win and lock up an $1133 profit. all you need to do to find that is plug in the #'s here... http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/

                                                      hedging match by match is a different story... i haven't done the calc's yet but to do so you'd need to estimate what the "true" line is for Mannarino vrs Van Der Merwe/Deverrman. My model says Mannarino would be -300ish against Van Der Merwe and -130ish against Deverrman. If those numbers are even close to accurate, you gotta hedge match to match. Now the question is, how much should you lay on Anderson in their match (fwiw i have anderson as -124 against mannarino)? that's a tough question that some basic (but time consuming) math can solve and i'm really too tired to do it. but regardless, if you think mannarino will be favored/flipping in the finals, then i think laying the $ on anderson is the best course of action.

                                                      just my 2 cents
                                                      Comment
                                                      • necro
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-07-09
                                                        • 1633

                                                        #9372
                                                        IMO Kontinen has such a juicy odds vs Zverev at Rotterdam qualies that it simply should be taken
                                                        Comment
                                                        • davidlynch
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 04-10-10
                                                          • 1

                                                          #9373
                                                          Originally posted by necro
                                                          IMO Kontinen has such a juicy odds vs Zverev at Rotterdam qualies that it simply should be taken
                                                          Agree...if it was Henri but it is only Micke. Not the same thing.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mirar Baseball
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-05-10
                                                            • 1263

                                                            #9374
                                                            Originally posted by blackbesst
                                                            maybe he bet on himself
                                                            lol !!!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mirar Baseball
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-05-10
                                                              • 1263

                                                              #9375
                                                              These are the two futures I booked on February 1st:

                                                              Player to win SA Tennis Open Y.H. Lu @ 19.51 Risking $17.29 to win $320
                                                              Player to win PBZ Zagreb Indoors I.Dodig @ 13.50 Risking $20.00 to win $250

                                                              Fading Raonic wasn't such a bad idea after all, but he blew up a little too late... now the second future I think might hit.

                                                              Dodig is a slight favorite against GGL, and should be a slight favorite again if Berrer gets to the final (or a slight dog in the +110-130 range vs Mayer)

                                                              So as of right now, I give Ivan about 50% (0.5) to win either of the two matches he has to win for my future to cash.

                                                              0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

                                                              So he should win this tournament about once in four tries... this is an equivalent of Ace-Queen beating Ace-King when all in preflop twodimes calculator

                                                              Please let me know if you agree (and especially if you don't) with my reasoning/math. This isn't exactly a decision worth hundreds, but I've gotten solid results betting futures over the past seasons - both in NBA and tennis - and would like to get the whole 'to hedge or not to hedge' part of it figured out.

                                                              Good luck today shari!

                                                              Comment
                                                              • rickosu
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 10-21-09
                                                                • 21

                                                                #9376
                                                                Originally posted by Mirar Baseball
                                                                These are the two futures I booked on February 1st:

                                                                Player to win SA Tennis Open Y.H. Lu @ 19.51 Risking $17.29 to win $320
                                                                Player to win PBZ Zagreb Indoors I.Dodig @ 13.50 Risking $20.00 to win $250

                                                                Fading Raonic wasn't such a bad idea after all, but he blew up a little too late... now the second future I think might hit.

                                                                Dodig is a slight favorite against GGL, and should be a slight favorite again if Berrer gets to the final (or a slight dog in the +110-130 range vs Mayer)

                                                                So as of right now, I give Ivan about 50% (0.5) to win either of the two matches he has to win for my future to cash.

                                                                0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

                                                                So he should win this tournament about once in four tries... this is an equivalent of Ace-Queen beating Ace-King when all in preflop twodimes calculator

                                                                Please let me know if you agree (and especially if you don't) with my reasoning/math. This isn't exactly a decision worth hundreds, but I've gotten solid results betting futures over the past seasons - both in NBA and tennis - and would like to get the whole 'to hedge or not to hedge' part of it figured out.

                                                                Good luck today shari!

                                                                hey mirar,

                                                                in most situations, assuming you're using proper bankroll management, hedging is typically a bad idea. if you blindly hedge in all of these situation without factoring in the current line and what you perceive to be the breakeven line, then you're going about it all wrong. theoretically, the lines the books put out for each match are efficient. based on this assumption, each time you wager on a particular match, you will lose money over time. so in most situations you are cutting into the expected value of your future bet.

                                                                with that said, there are times that hedging can be useful/more profitable based on the factors below:

                                                                1) your adversity to risk. this is pretty obvious, so I don't feel like much of an explanation is necessary. if you're THAT worried about losing, hedge away, but just realize you're eating into your ev MOST of the time.

                                                                2) your bankroll. if the $ you can win will be life changing and you can't justify "letting it ride", then it might be a good idea to hedge. for instance, player A has a 10k bankroll and throws 100 on a player than is 100-1, it's the quarterfinals and they KNOW they can lock up a 2k profit if they bet against themselves, guaranteeing a 20% bankroll increase. percentage-wise that's pretty huge, so for this player it might be worth sacrificing the EV.

                                                                3) if you estimate that the "true" line for the current match and the upcoming match(es) are significantly different than the books. for instance, semi-finals of a tournament, your player who you have a large future bet on is even money in the semis. BUT based on your estimation he should be more of a dog than the current line indicates. if what you predict the "true" line is considerable, then you may have a good hedge situation.

                                                                the second part of this is tricky... after you're done with the first part you need to estimate the odds they will be playing player X and Y in the final, estimate the "true" odds, and the hardest part, estimate what line the books will put out.

                                                                hope this helps!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • rickosu
                                                                  SBR Rookie
                                                                  • 10-21-09
                                                                  • 21

                                                                  #9377
                                                                  Originally posted by shari91
                                                                  You're right Ruff. But I guess that's why he was $51 pre tourney - his chances to make it even this far were somewhat slim according to the books. I do know though that I'm never getting involved with a future this size again. The amounts involved when it comes to hedging are ridiculous, especially if you have to do it two days in a row. Still not sure how I'm actually going to do this so any suggestions are welcome.
                                                                  so what'd ya end up doing?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • rickosu
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 10-21-09
                                                                    • 21

                                                                    #9378
                                                                    googogogogo
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • beefcake
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-26-09
                                                                      • 14029

                                                                      #9379
                                                                      M took the 1st set! Shari hope you hedged with live betting! Now is the time!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • shari91
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-23-10
                                                                        • 32661

                                                                        #9380
                                                                        Originally posted by beefcake
                                                                        M took the 1st set! Shari hope you hedged with live betting! Now is the time!
                                                                        Sadly no! The one night I manage to fall asleep quite early

                                                                        I did however hedge on Anderson straight up. Not for the whole amount obviously as Anderson's price wouldn't allow that but for a pretty good profit regardless. I didn't bother putting money on Izak or Somdev because if Mannarino made it to the Final, I would've let the bet ride for the most part. Anderson was his big threat and rightly so.

                                                                        So no fairy tale $10k payout but Mannarino still made me a couple of grand which is a first for me from a future bet in a small tournament. Woohoo Adrian!!
                                                                        Comment
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