EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

Should be getting back on the court in Cincy. They are finishing drying things up. That should also mean the men's match tonight gets in.

BAGHDATIS +135
Great match-up with Cilic here. Both crapped out early in Toronto after good runs in DC. Baghdatis' might be more excused after playing in the final and then having to travel. He lost in 3 to Chardy. Cilic was poor against Troicki who he had owned in his career prior to that meeting. These two have met twice this season with Cilic winning one on clay and one on hard courts in Miami in March. Both will be eager to get back on track this week and for me, I flat don't trust Cilic. Heat shouldn't be an issue here since the rain has cooled things off. Humidity might make it muggy, but these two guys should be okay with that and it won't give either a heavy advantage. If Baghdatis can get back to that thunder boomer serve he had working in DC, I think he can score the upset here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Have a feeling if Sharapova can't close in the 2nd set, the rain delay is going to give Clijsters this title in the 3rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I think Maria may have just choked away this one. She got the mini break early in the tie break, but got outscored 7-1 after going up 3-0. Damn rain delay.

[EaglesPhan36]

She pretty much folded up shop here in the 3rd. Rain delays really piss me off.

[beefcake]

Dam that sucked ass..

[EaglesPhan36]

Baggy made up for the Sharapova meltdown. Beat Cilic in straights.

[Wilforth]

EP,

Any 2-teamer for Monday?

[jorge1]

EP, good evening...any challengers for tonight???

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY PARLAY: de BAKKER + WICKMAYER [-114]
de Bakker draws Monaco who has been out of action since the French Open. Monaco when healthy and in-form is actually not a bad player on hard courts. However, taking into account that he hasn't played a competitive match in three months while de Bakker has gotten his feet wet on the US hard courts the last two weeks and you have a favorable match for the big serving Dutchman. de Bakker is still learning this surface, but if he brings the heat on serve, expect his recent match play and fitness to outlast Monaco. Wickmayer draws Govortsova who withdrew late in her match against Peer last week. Generally, this is not her best surface to being with, just 4-10 this season and Wickmayer has shown good form the last few weeks. Not sure what the retirement was due to, but it should not matter here as Wickmayer is good enough on this surface to beat Govortsova at 100% or anything less.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nothing Challenger wise at the moment. Only Uzbekistan lines are posted at my book and I don't recognize 90% of the players + no scoreboards which I hate. Will probably play some of the San Sebastian matches. Clay court and a lot of the usual Challenger suspects plus a live scoreboard! Brazil hard court one maybe some spot plays.

[Shifty107]

Saved me a bunch today EP. Thank mate. Was gonna jump on Cilic based on recent head to head matches, but seeing your write up made me take Baghdatis. $4500, thank you very much mate. All the best to you and your plays.

[jorge1]

thanks EP... will look out for plays

[EaglesPhan36]

CINCINNATI MEN'S DRAW

I like to just throw this out pre-tourney so that I can track my original thoughts and maybe it gives some insight too. No futures prices listed at the books yet.

NADAL QUARTER
Nadal & Berdych are the top seeds here in this quarter. Baghdatis is a dangerous floater I think. He's in Berdych's portion of the draw. Nadal might get a little test in the 3rd round against someone like Almagro, Wawrinka or Llodra. Still, he should be good enough if he can work out the kinks in his serve. If Berdych is healthy, this should come down to Nadal-Berdych. Nadal has beaten Berdych on grass and hard courts this year. Edge Nadal. Darkhorse Baghdatis.

FEDERER QUARTER
Federer & Davydenko are the top seeds. Federer is lucky to have this draw after working hard in Toronto. He'll have to work past a Kohlschreiber or Monfils in the 3rd, but he's classier and more consistent for the most part than both on this surface. Again, erase Davydenko right away here as his form is still shit. The bracket with Ferrer, Dolgopolov, Querrey and Petzschner I think may wind up pumping out the quarterfinalist from this portion of the draw. Will be interesting to see how Roger reacts to losing to Murray and what purpose he wants this tournament to serve for US Open preps as it is I believe his last before the Open. Federer has faired well here in the past and with this draw, even fatigue might not stop him from getting to the semis. Edge Federer. Darkhorse, Ferrer.

MURRAY QUARTER
Murray heads into this full of confidence. Fatigue isn't something I am much worried about with him here as he was not forced to be on-court especially long in any of his Toronto matches. Verdasco is the other seed on top of this quarter. Murray may be tested with Melzer, Chardy and Gulbis in his portion. Still, his current form says he should get to the QFs. Up top, I expect Verdasco to either go out in his 1st match or make the QFs. I side more with leaving early as he could play Fish or Simon in his 1st match. Winner of that match has the inside track to the QFs. Gasquet and Youzhny play again in the 1st round. Seems like they meet a lot. Edge Murray. Darkhorse, Fish.

DJOKOVIC QUARTER
This sucker is loaded. Djokovic and Soderling are the top seeds, but this portion also includes Roddick, Nalbandian and Isner. The interesting thing for me is that Djokovic has made the finals here the last two years despite Cincy usually being a miserable heat box at this point of the summer. He'll have to beat Nalbandian or Isner to get to the QFs. If it's Nalbandian, I'm not sure he will make it assuming Nalbandian has recovered after a grueling two weeks. Up top, Soderling and Roddick may be destined for a 3rd round showdown - although de Bakker could be a wildcard here. I joked about Roddick having mono a few weeks back, but that is apparently exactly what he had. Roddick used to own this tournament up until 2007. It might be hard to expect him to bounce back to full fitness even after taking last week off, but he'll be one to watch. Edge Djokovic, Darkhorse Roddick.

Will have to wait on prices before I solidly pick a couple futures plays. What is interesting is all four semifinalists from Toronto could theoretically make it again this week albeit with different match-ups in the end.

[shari91]

I have prices listed here if you're curious as to the ballpark on any of them.

[EaglesPhan36]

What are the big four at: Nadal, Federer, Murray, Djokovic. Just want to guesswork it as far as the order the prices will be from shortest to longest before you list them: Nadal,Feder,Murray,Djokovic.

Federer should theoretically be shortest to me because he doesn't have someone like Berdych standing in his way to the semis, but I'm guessing the books are lazy and use rankings more.

[shari91]

Fed +325
Nadal +350
Murray +350
Djokovic +650

Lines here are sometimes off, for better or worse, but they're usually in the general vicinity.

[EaglesPhan36]

5Dimes is dragging on getting these lines up for Monday. They're still missing a couple for tomorrow and of course no totals. Oh well, I will look when I get up and see what's what. Going to be interested to see the line movement on Wawrinka-Almagro. I think Almagro is almost always a decent dog play on hard courts when he gets his feet under him. People constantly stick him as a clay court specialist, but he's been pretty solid on hard courts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks Shari. Based on Djokovic's track record here even with a difficult draw, I think I might take a piece of him if he's around that price. Tough to take the others at the shorter price except maybe Federer because of the easier draw although the fatigue possibility has to be considered.

[nicsbr]

Any thoughts on

Thomas Schoorel - Olivier Patience

?

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Always hard to know in Cinci who's really bothered about getting those UO seeds - some guys really obsess over things like that, others don't care much.

[paciophobia]

yes EP any thoughts on the patience match? i put some for patience myself.

[Rainman12]

just checked your thread now EP to see we have played the same 2 teamer, De Bakker and Wickmayer!
Best of luck to both of us
Do you happen to know why monaco has been out for so long?

[EaglesPhan36]

ALMAGRO +149
As suggest above, Almagro is often tipped at a good price on hard courts because people normally associate him with clay courts. However, his results on hard courts in 2010 have been every bit as good was Wawrinka's. Almagro is 10-5 whereas Wawrinka is 8-5 on the surface this year, but just 4-4 since he opened with a big run at Chennai. I would expect Almagro potentially to improve this week after getting his feet wet on hard courts again in Toronto last week. If he serves well, he has a shot today.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

like the parley and i'm on almagro 2 good luck ep

[EaglesPhan36]

Dmitry Tursunov Tweet

Saw "Friends" on the plane. It's really unfortunate that David Schwimmer have never gotten hit by a car!!!

[shari91]

Dmitry Tursunov Tweet

That guy's a classic.

[EaglesPhan36]

Almagro is done. Slow start to the week as usual. Yippee.

[Mirar Baseball]

Dmitry Tursunov Tweet

'5 different beds in the span of the week. My back wants to leave me ;( '

Tursunov just made a new fan.

[EaglesPhan36]

STEPANEK +210
He killed his wife's tennis career [Nicole Vaidisova]. They've been married almost one month to the day. Steps has generally had major problems staying healthy this year and has looked pretty poor in his two tries during the US Open hard court series swing. I think he needs to win to get laid. Troicki Troicki Troicki. I would not blindly follow this play, this is one I had a gut feeling on but little else. Troicki retired down 0-1 in the 2nd set at this tournament to Stepanek last year. As this roulette dealer told me once after I hit Black #8, hit that again.

[Mirar Baseball]

Almagro is done. Slow start to the week as usual. Yippee.

Can't blame yourself for taking an underdog here. Anyone who remembers the way previous tournament started for both men and women can't blame you.

On to the next one.

P.S. As we get closer to the US Open, do you feel like truely great/inform players get into a little more rhythm? As in, someone like Djokovic might be more likely to 'tank' a round 1 match in Toronto than in Cincinnati.. but less likely than in Washington? I get this feeling like true favorites for a major win have the luxury of starting slow on a new surface every season - maybe even sitting out a tournament - but once we get to this stage, there will be fewer upsets than a couple of weeks earlier, at the very beginning of HC season.

Going by this logic, I wouldn't be shocked to see Murray become the favorite to win US Open if he wins in Ohio. And I would be less shocked if he lost in SF and went back to +500 where he was before he dispatched Nadal and Federer in under 48 hours. Could these final 1-2 tournaments before be an indication of how well prepared these players are for making a major title run?

BTW I feel like a complete douche for not taking some of the Murray to win US Open stock after he beat Nadal. I posted in one of the threads that his stock is about to plummet... and then sat on my hands hoping Federer wins and I can get full value again.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't read much into the US Open futures market. It changes after every event. Mardy Fish went from astronomical odds to lower odds after he won in Atlanta and now he's back out around where he should be. Murray certainly will go lower if he manages to win this week, but me personally, I don't invest until draws come out. I don't care how hot a player is, if his draw is difficult it is hard to take him/her at a low price. You might lose a few bucks on price, but I think you lose more if you don't study the draw and take picks blindly based on "form" or expected results.

As to the big boys getting into form, watch Cincinnati. Traditionally this has been a tournament where the winner translates it into a big run at the US Open. I think the last 5 Cincy champs have made the US Open final - of course that is skewed some because Federer accounts for three of those. Definitely don't think losing early in Cincinnati helps anyone as a lot of the "names" on tour do not play in New Haven next week, so this is their last tune-up.

[EaglesPhan36]

RAZZANO -111
She's drawing Schnyder here who makes the draw as a lucky loser. Patty whacked her good on an indoor hard surface this Spring in straights, but Razzano beat her twice in 2009 on outdoor hard courts - at the Australian Open and New Haven. Razzano is here as a wildcard entry and showed some form on the surface by dropping down to the ITF level and playing Vancouver last week. She made the final, but fell short. Strangely, Razzano seems to take to this Canadian tournament each Summer in spite of whatever struggles she has. Perhaps it's the French Canadian roots of Montreal orgasmically transforming her from a lump of shit into something worthwhile for a few matches each year. The last three years though, she has made at least the 3rd round at the Canadian event. Schnyder has a decent track record too, but her 2010 form on hard courts about on-par with Razzano's, except Razzano should be more confident.

[EaglesPhan36]

FERRER-DOLGOPOLOV OVER 22 [-125]
By far my favorite total on the board today. Ferrer can be expected to improve over last week when he didn't look bad against Nalbandian. Dolgopolov was a suprise to me with some great battling spirit in Toronto. He beat Petzschner and Youzhny before falling short in 3 sets to Berdych. Dologopolov's serve was stout last week and if he can reproduce that today, he'll hold deep into sets. Would do himself well to pump in more 1st serves as his percentage was low in that area and a good returner like Ferrer will feast on too many of those chances.

[Munjoz]

good luck with dolgopolov over

[limitation]

Monaco is giving good fight in the second set. I hope De Bakker can finish him here.