EP36's Tennis Talk

[Spanks]

these faaken last few tournament have been utter shit...

[beefcake]

Underachiever describes Donald perfectly at this point in his career. Just because you get paid for play doesn't mean you've lived up to your ranking and the "hype." Maybe the hype was too much because as Americans, we're always looking for the next guy with guys like Roddick and Blake getting older. Isner & Querrey seem to be the next generation, but Young was supposed to be a guy who was going to step up and be an ATP level performer. I realize he's just about to turn 21, but he's actually ranked about 25 spots lower than he was two years ago when he got his highest ranking of I think 75 or so. He's just kind of stuck without any momentum. He plays well enough on hard courts to make a paycheck on the Challenger level and maybe win a few of those here & there, but with where he's ranked, he's got to start doing work at the ATP level. Otherwise, he's going to be Kevin Kim and just collect a check playing Challengers for the rest of his life. Nothing wrong with that and it's better money than most of us will ever make, but I guess I'm just waiting for him to put it together at some point and he doesn't look like he's going to any time soon.

Yeah Ep i was disappointed in young today.I played him small,he just cant seem to get over the hump.Besides being the "Great Black Hope",his game just cant seem to measure up.he has the speed to track down balls like chang,but like you said a avg serve with no mental make up.Kevin Kim all over again for sure.

[beefcake]

Im taking Fish vs the spread,he is just rolling right now and cant see Dent giving him much trouble.The way roddick played today,he might lose in the next round,which would open the door on the fish +700 future.

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY

FERRERO-MAYER OVER 22 [-130]
Although Ferrero has advanced to this point, he hasn't always been sharp from set to set. Maygaer has enjoyed the support of the home crowd again this week after the same in Stuttgart last week. It's resulted in his best ATP run on clay during his career. His serve has been solid this week as has JCF's. That's normally a good combination for some tight sets and a shot at the over. Ferrero has shot up to being one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win this tournament with others falling off in upsets. He couldn't ask for a much more realistic set-up to getting to the final, playing a guy in Mayer who although he is in a good run of form - is not at his best on this surface. Then he would get Istomin or Golubev in the semis. JCF should be chomping at the bit here with a chance to add a 4th clay court title to his resume in 2010. I think he'll get it done today, but I think Mayer will push him.

[Goat Milk]

FRIDAY

FERRERO-MAYER OVER 22 [-130]
Although Ferrero has advanced to this point, he hasn't always been sharp from set to set. Maygaer has enjoyed the support of the home crowd again this week after the same in Stuttgart last week. It's resulted in his best ATP run on clay during his career. His serve has been solid this week as has JCF's. That's normally a good combination for some tight sets and a shot at the over. Ferrero has shot up to being one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win this tournament with others falling off in upsets. He couldn't ask for a much more realistic set-up to getting to the final, playing a guy in Mayer who although he is in a good run of form - is not at his best on this surface. Then he would get Istomin or Golubev in the semis. JCF should be chomping at the bit here with a chance to add a 4th clay court title to his resume in 2010. I think he'll get it done today, but I think Mayer will push him.

on this as well. lets get this boy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Maygaer ... haha. Sweet typo I made.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP DOUBLES: MARRERO-LOPEZ +105
You'll notice this is one of the duos that I have followed pretty closely in the past couple of weeks and these regular partners pulled off a nice upset of Moodie-Norman yesterday in the super breaker. They were outstanding on-serve. They are up against another solid duo in Brazilians Melo & Soares, but the price doesn't seem quite right considering this match looks like a coin flip. Both teams are fully capable of winning this. Going with the better odds and the Spaniards.

[Goat Milk]

Maygaer ... haha. Sweet typo I made.

[shari91]

Maygaer ... haha. Sweet typo I made.

I saw that but figured I'd wait to see if you caught it on your own.

[noober]

ATP DOUBLES: MARRERO-LOPEZ +105
You'll notice this is one of the duos that I have followed pretty closely in the past couple of weeks and these regular partners pulled off a nice upset of Moodie-Norman yesterday in the super breaker. They were outstanding on-serve. They are up against another solid duo in Brazilians Melo & Soares, but the price doesn't seem quite right considering this match looks like a coin flip. Both teams are fully capable of winning this. Going with the better odds and the Spaniards.

+105 is not much value on a coin flip but I actually think they should be the favorites so I am going small on them.

[beefcake]

How bout dem chinese teenagers Ep!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Doubles play wins in the super breaker.

[EaglesPhan36]

PARLAY: HAASE [Orbetello Challenger] + ISNER [-123]
Haase has been very solid this week in Italy with a pair of dominant wins as he transitioned back from hard courts after playing two Davis Cup matches. Haase has won a clay Challenger in May in Germany beating some quality players like Mayer, Reister & Kamke. He also took Almagro to a 5th set at the French Open, so his clay skills are solid. His opponent, Donskoy, has some talent, but generally lacks against better competition on this surface. If Haase remains solid on serve, he should book a spot in the semis. Isner draws Russell, the little bulldog. Isner was his usual dominant serving self against Muller and showed tremendous nerve in two tie breaks to avoid being upset in the 1st round. Russell worked past a pretty average Schuettler in the last round and beat an out-of-form Benjamin Becker in the 1st. Isner has met Russell three times and won all three, including a hard court win in three sets in Miami this year. The feeling remains the same and that is that Russell can stick with Isner if Big John decides to just focus on pumping in aces and then going to tie breaks. The feeling though is that Isner has been incredible coming up with big points in tie breaks and has won about 67% of the tie breaks he's been involved in this season. Russell has won around 30%. Might be tight, but Isner should advance.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

KUZNETSOV +100
Kuznetsov draws Kevin Kim in the QFs at Lexington. They have met four times with Kim scoring his first win over Kuznetsov in 3 sets in Miami earlier this season. All of these meetings have gone three sets. Kim has had a pretty blah 2010 on the Challenger level as he seems to go wherever he can get a check. This is his best result on Challenger hard courts since a January QF appearance. Kuznetsov has been more impressive in Lexington and faced a little better competition so far. This is Kuznetsov's 4th Challenger QF on hard courts in 2010. Figures to be close, so I'll go with the better price and the guy who seems to be playing a notch better.

[beefcake]

Like Kuzzy vs Mr.Paycheck!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Total is a winner at this point. Hope JCF finds his game again in the 3rd to preserve that future I'm holding on him!

[Goat Milk]

yeah boy.

Hopefully I get Istomin to complete the parlay now.

Seppi +5500

Will once again need your opinion on hedging next round.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

ANDUJAR -130
He draws Lorenzi here. These two met at this tournament last year and Andujar beat him routinely. They have met three times in their careers, strangely enough with the other winning each time in the other's home country. Andujar is 2-0 vs. Lorenzi in Italy. Lorenzi is 1-0 vs. Andujar in Spain. Favor Andujar here as he has been playing more ATP level events and has generally shown more this week at the Orbetello event with better serving numbers. Lorenzi has played a lot of tennis lately too, so at some point, it should catch up with him and this looks like a decent spot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay dying as Haase is eating shit in the 3rd. Only thing worthwhile is the play I did not use instead to play Haase lost also, so I would have been screwed regardless.

Kuznetsov slaughters Kevin Paycheck in straights or is about to finish it.

[EaglesPhan36]

RODDICK-MALISSE OVER 21.5 [-130]
Light night play here. It's hotter than fook in Atlanta and Roddick complained yesterday that the heat had some to do with him being a little shaky. Despite that, his serve was dominating as usual. I'm not expecting that he'll give Malisse much in the way of opportunity to break him. Malisse has played well in these first two rounds in spite of a low 1st serve percentage, getting in 46% & I believe 38% on 1st serve in his opener. Bad numbers that will be a big problem spot if they do not improve. Giving your opponent that many looks at a 2nd serve is asking for it. However, Malisse has shown an aggressive serve and game in general, so if he can correct the 1st serve issues ... I would think both guys may be into playing short points in this one. Expecting big serves and big forehands. Not sure Malisse will trouble Roddick enough to take a set, but hell if Ram can, Malisse can.

[EaglesPhan36]

Andujar wins in straight sets.

[EaglesPhan36]

Over is a done deal.

[Tsonga]

smart play on roddick over...i didn't see any reason why roddick wouldn't hold his own but I thought there was a slight possibility that mallisse gets rolled like he has in the past by roddick. that kept me away from the total.

[beefcake]

Hit comeback Eagles on the late games..

Hope I get a good line with Fish vs roddick if fish can hold on here..

Goatmilk...Nice pick on seppi!!

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY

MELZER-SEPPI OVER 22 [-120]
Melzer's serve has been nearly inpenetrable this week and has made Melzer very difficult to get on top of in Hamburg. Seppi has surprised with his run this week with his own serve being a bit better than what I usual expect from him. Melzer dominated the Italian on a hard surface earlier this year, but has lost both career meetings on dirt. With Seppi in some exceptional form here and Melzer proving to be a solid play on dirt since his big French Open run, I'd expect this could be a tight one and potentially go the distance. If Seppi can hold his nerve on serve, he'll push Melzer hard here. Not sure if Seppi has enough firepower to beat this version of Melzer, but I do believe it's possible too. Will go with the total instead.

[EaglesPhan36]

Melzer was too good today, Seppi wasn't poor, but he didn't get many chances.

[EaglesPhan36]

Small meat on these two props, offering better odds than taking the match to end in 3 sets at +136:

GOLUBEV 2-1 [+384]
MAYER 2-1 [+321]

If it goes 3, ya get paid either way and paid substantially better than taking the match to "end in 3" prop. Books must not think we can do math. May not hit at all, but this is a much more efficient way to bet 3 sets when it's available.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

KUZNETSOV +105
A good revenge spot for the American here against Carsten Ball. Ball beat him last week at the Aptos event in three sets. The first set went to a tie break and upon losing it, Kuznetsov seemed to lose his focus. He was beaten 6-1 in the 2nd and then 6-4 as Ball advanced to the QFS before losing in the semis. Kuznetsov beat Ball earlier in the year on a hard surface in Tallahassee. Kuznetsov seems to have taken a shine to these Lexington courts in the past year. He made the finals here last year, having to go all the way through qualifying. He earned his spot here in the main draw this year and has been solid this week. Ball has played pretty much non-stop the last two weeks as he's been playing doubles as well. Should be nice & hot in Kentucky again today which could help wear Ball down.

[nicsbr]

bol on them plays

[EaglesPhan36]

JOHN ISNER 2-0 [+105]
You've got the two big servers here and obviously that means we shouldn't expect many breaks of serve. Anderson has only offered up two break points in three matches and after allowing 9 break opps in his opener, Isner offered none against Russell. These two giants have met three times with Isner prevailing in straight sets in all three meetings. The big number here, ZERO. That's the number of times Anderson has broken Isner in those meetings. Isner broke Anderson 4 of 9 times the break was offered in those meetings. The last came this Spring in Miami when Big John won 6-3, 7-5. I don't see anything from Anderson to indicate that his game is much different than it's always been. Isner while not always the best of returners, definitely moves better in the return game. In front of his home crowd and with a chance to get to another final, I think Isner comes in focused and so long as Anderson can have a couple shaky service games, I think Isner will take advantage when he gets the chances and finish this in two sets.

[BernardMadoff]

Didnt Anderson break Isner in the 2008 match? Where did you get this info?

[beefcake]

Great info Ep..+ money..like it!

[EaglesPhan36]

Didnt Anderson break Isner in the 2008 match? Where did you get this info?

Sorry. That is correct. The 7-6, 7-5 win for Isner, Anderson did get a break. I had all three windows with stats open and was looking at the wrong side on that one. Anderson converted 1 of 4 in that match.

[TennisBabe]

Anderson actually beat Isner in that 2008 meeting. Isner also won 3 head to head matchups in college against him. Isner wins today

[colout]