EP36's Tennis Talk

[JNic]

very easy over, i really hope Li pushes this to 3. Serena is just sooo mentally tough and her serve is deadly right now

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY

REYNOLDS +105
Reynolds vs. Phau. Two vets collecting a check. Reynolds was actually hot on hard courts before leaving for Wimbledon qualis as he won a Challenger tourney on the surface late in May. Phau had been playing mainly on clay for the last few weeks. Let's see who wants to play tomorrow. 1:15pm ET is the time my book lists for the start. May be able to find the scoreboard at Bet365.com or http://www.nielsenprotennis.com/ has a link to Facebook score updates supposedly if you give two shits.

[beefcake]

Eagles...Alex Kuznetsov won this tourney as a qualie last year...I would think his confidence would be sky high on these courts. He is +140 to a good player in Russell..might be worth a shot..

[EaglesPhan36]

Not bad. Would never lay -180 on Russell anywhere.

[beefcake]

break fest in illinois..

[EaglesPhan36]

I probably would have had more fun eating my money with a pile of poop on it over betting on Bobby Reynolds. Oh well, flamed away a tiny part of what was a better day overall.

[EaglesPhan36]

WEDNESDAY

FEDERER-BERDYCH OVER 37.5 [-125]
Much like the Serena-Li line, if you like this one I would get it TODAY. The price will go nowhere but up and you may see like the Serena-Li line, a total rise by 0.5-1 games by the time the match begins on Wednesday. Berdych has a powerful enough serve that he should be able to force some tight sets with Federer. Remember, Berdych is not going to get in a great amount of first serves - he's high 50s near 60% this tournament, but his ace count is still high. That means he's not having trouble with the 2nd serve. Sure, it'd be nice to get closer to 70% of those 1st serves in, but regardless he should be fairly solid on-serve. I think the last two meetings between these two - although on hard courts can help here as they were both in the "Federer Not Being Federer Any Longer" Era. Berdych beat him in Miami 6-4, 6-7, 7-6 and went five sets before losing to him at the Australian Open. I think the Aussie Open encounter will serve especially useful to Berdych because it should give him some confidence that he has gone toe-to-toe with Federer on the biggest stage before. Federer has settled in the last two rounds, but he'll have to step it back up against a much better player than his previous two here with Berdych.

[shari91]

I jumped on that at 37.5 -120 when the lines first came out. I'm pleasantly surprised that the books here are offering a better line at the moment.

[EaglesPhan36]

Heh. Sorry, I can't read numbers. It's 37.5 here too.

[shari91]

Heh. Sorry, I can't read numbers. It's 37.5 here too.

I should've known it was too good to be true. These books suck for the most part.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was trying to write and watch the end of the Spain-Portugal match. Spain was making me F-ing nervous at the end, so nervous I couldn't read.

[Goat Milk]

Federer in 3. This total is really sharp.

[EaglesPhan36]

Already hammered up to -145.

[Goat Milk]

I really don't think Berdych will take a set, and if you want to take the over I think there is just better value in Federer wins 3-1 because if if Fed wins in 3 the over will not hit. Just keeping a lookout.

[ji03]

Nice call on Zvonareva

[EaglesPhan36]

I really don't think Berdych will take a set, and if you want to take the over I think there is just better value in Federer wins 3-1 because if if Fed wins in 3 the over will not hit. Just keeping a lookout.

See your point, I just don't normally like specific set betting with so many possibilities in best of 5s. I'm not so sure Berdych doesn't make Fed work hard again either. He's got the confidence he needs to go against him even if the surface might not be his best.

[beefcake]

Looks like kuneztov is the featured night match.usually these challengers have one marque match per day and charge a higher admission.Makes sense having the defending champ play the highest rated U.S. player.Should be a nice crowd rooting on the juicy dog!

[beefcake]

+160 now on Kuzzy..

[EaglesPhan36]

Now I see why the price is where it is, Russell is 4-0 vs. Kuznetsov. Last meeting was October 2009. Sitting it out, hope you get it Beef!

[beefcake]

sheesh kuz was up 3-0 now russel serving for the set at 5-4

[EaglesPhan36]

PARLAY: NADAL-SODERLING OVER 3.5 SETS PLAYED + VENTURA (Braunschweig Challenger) [+102]
Any way you shake this match down, be it that you think Soderling's power will wear Nadal down or that Nadal will run down Soderling's every shot and force him into too many errors ... it is difficult to see either player winning in straight sets. Sure, there are scenarios - Rafa's knees crumble and he goes out weakly, but he looked fit against Mathieu last round. Soderling struggled against Ferrer. Some would say, take the OVER 41.5 games at about -130, but that's not a gimme in a four set match. Ventura is playing Jamaican Dustin Brown in a clay Challenger. Brown isn't useless on this surface has he won a couple clay Challengers last year. However, he has lost 5 of his last 6 on dirt and 9 of 12 since winning a Challenger last August. Ventura meanwhile won a clay Challenger in early May and is more of a main draw ATP talent. Expecting Ventura to reacclimate quicker to dirt than Brown.

[rumple]

Pulling out the challenger picks, gl!

[Gee]

I should've known it was too good to be true. These books suck for the most part.

You can get Over 37 games (3 way handicap, so 37.5 really) on bet365 for -110! just smashed it.

the 2 way handicap is at 34.5 for some reason and the over is at -175.

First time i've seen bet365 have the best line on something!

[mav924]

The overs sound like good plays on both the games and sets

[Shifty107]

All the best EP. The plays look solid mate.

[PetrGasparik]

Over 34.5 at 1.39 @bwin
Also +5.5 at 1.74

I'd love to lean on Tomas but he had hard time to get to quarterfinal. I know Federer had even harder time, almost lost. But Fed is tougher.

Still, I'm on Tomas' spread, staying away from sides 'til first set. We'll see what we get.

IMHO Tomas takes first or second set, luckily both. But sadly, no more.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ventura wins 6-4, 7-6. First leg of the parlay complete. Just need Nadal-Soderling to go at least 4 sets.

[SRBI]

Djokovic shitting on Lu - I'm talkin 5 Whopper Jr's from BK type of shitting. Anyone got a play on em?

[EaglesPhan36]

I was going to use him in a parlay, but even that price wasn't worth a solid return. F-ing Federer and Berdych playing these lop sided sets. Likely need this to go 5 to cash the over now unless they can start holding serve in this 4th set.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

Djokovic shitting on Lu - I'm talkin 5 Whopper Jr's from BK type of shitting. Anyone got a play on em?

lol funny shit

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn. Roger got broke and that's probably all she wrote unless Berdych suddenly gets the jitters. Couldn't just hold serve like two more times eh Fed? You deserve to lose buddy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Federer-Berdych ends at 36. Thought the sets would be a lot tighter than that. F-ers. Federer, wow. I think it is safe to say now that you cannot bank on him doing anything in any tournament any longer after he loses before the semis at Wimbledon.

[EaglesPhan36]

CHALLENGER PLAY: SMYCZEK [-120]
Playing Kevin Kim on hard courts this morning. Smyczek beat him on an indoor hard surface this Spring. Main reason I want to try this is Kim just played on clay last week, so he's switching back and forth on surfaces. He's not been that successful at doing that this season. Kim has lost 5 of his last 6 at hard court Challengers. Smyczek hasn't played since Wimbledon qualis, but played two hard court tourneys prior to that so he should be better suited to acclimate quicker to the surface perhaps. Noon ET start. Perfect weather in Winnetka.

[beefcake]

[EaglesPhan36]

That Challenger match is on Center Court too, so the score should be at Bet365.com's live scoreboard. Nadal got an early break on Soderling, so if he can hold this set then the parlay cashes.