EP36's Tennis Talk

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 14-20-1 (-6.02)
Got the over at 23 as Llodra pulls off the upset on Baghdatis 7-6, 6-4. Wicked serve worked for him again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 14-21-1 (-7.02)

Hanescu sucks. Parlay done before it ever started.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #37: [ATP - Memphis] Korolev/Petzschner OVER 23 (-115)
The match itself is tough to call. Korolev beat a down trodden Kohlschreiber, while Petzschner rallied to beat Dent in 3. Both have serves that at times are hard to get points off of, but both also have mental lapses with their serves. For me, that means we either get some tight sets or a topsy turvy 3 setter. Petzschner's 2010 results reflect just that and Korolev in his two indoor hard court matches has played to totals at 23 or better both times with three sets required 7 games for the eventual winner of that set.

I liked Mayer as a dog today, but fear Fish is either going to retire or that his knee pain is him playing possum. So I passed on that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 15-21-1 (-6.02)

6-4-1 since the move to 5Dimes. Maybe that's what I needed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #38: [ATP - Open 13] Soderling/Stalhovsky OVER 19.5 (-145)
Heavy chalk here, but I like this if both bring their big serves to begin the match. Stakhovsky had 15 aces in his 1st rounder here and must be effective on 1st serve (80% last time) to keep this match tight. Soderling got rollig in Rotterdam and appears to be on track after a slow start to 2010. If the serves are solid, there should be at least one tight set and perhaps two. Stakhovsky is still rounding into shape, so look for quick points and big hitting.

[cappinthepigs]

BOL Eagles.. Looks like a solid Play!

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #39: [ATP - Memphis] Jeremy Chardy -109
Chardy may have gotten less than a 100% effort from a possibly fatigued Fernando Verdasco, but that doesn't change the confidence he should have gained from dominating the San Jose champion. Chardy needed a spark after dropping his first four matches of 2010 and offering very little to like. Can one match set him straight? That is the question, but he did power through Verdasco with great serving, winning 88% on his first serve. THat would be a great start today if he can come anywhere close to duplicating that feat. Lacko is a capable player, but was very fortunate that he was able to rally and beat a very poor player in Bobby Reynolds. Lacko also served very well in that match, winning over 80% on his first serve. He was also credible in Zagreb in February, knocking off Ljubicic before Petzschner knocked him out in the quarters. Neither guy has been especially good on indoor hard courts, both around 50% for their careers. To me, Chardy has the talent edge and if his head is back on right after his big win, this is his match to take. He started his climb in the rankings last year with a big tournament in Johannesburg and rode that into a fairly solid Spring. Memphis might be his chance to repeat that performance.

[MUHerd37]

U r gonna get the over 19.5. Soderling totally choked on the 1st set tiebreak. Was up something like 4-2 and serving and lost the tiebreak. He is now up 1 break in the 2nd set.

[EaglesPhan36]

Just got it with Stakhovsky winning a game in the 2nd set. Doesn't matter what happens now. Wouldn't be surprised if Soderling won in 3 or if he lost. Stakhovsky is throwing down bombs on serve again with 12 aces.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 16-21-1 (-5.02)

[cappinthepigs]

Nice Pick!

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #40: [WTA - Memphis] Arviddson/Oudin UNDER 20.5 (-135)
More high chalk here, but Oudin's play in this tournament warrants this. Oudin isn't especially over powering on serve, but she is effective. Where she has shown a remarkable kill rate is when her opponent offers up break points. Oudin has converted 11 of 17 break chances through 2 rounds here. Arviddson has offered up 24 breakers in her last two matches, but has yet to be fully taken advantage of by an opponent. She has been broken in 9 of those 24 chances, but her opponents have offered her many more to off-set that. Oudin has yielded just three break chances on serve, not saving any, but by allowing such a low amount she can certainly get by with that. Oudin has lost just 7 games in two matches here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #41: [PARLAY] Querrey/Oudin -133
Querrey faces a bit of a test in Memphis with Leonardo Mayer who white washed Mardy Fish off the court quickly yesterday. Querrey though I believe on this surface has too many weapons for Mayer. The Argentine simply does not have the experience that The Sam-urai has on this surface in the past year or so. Querrey is 8-3 on indoor hard courts since last February, losing to Roddick twice and Blake once. Oudin has been rolling through Memphis and faces the qualifier Sofia Arviddson today. The Swede has battled hard through the last two rounds, needing rallies in three sets to beat King & Domachowska. Neither is in the class of Oudin at the moment who has only lost 7 games through two rounds here. She seems to be in the zone right now and I think she has plenty to get to the semifinals.

[Boner_18]

Missed the Chardy pick, got up later and had some shit to do so it slipped my mind. Wish i hadn't. GL EP.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ya never know, could be the best thing to happen to you today. I just hope he doesn't screw me since I am pretty much trusting him not to lay a turd because of one match.

[colout]

Nice Play #38 and I like your Querrey-Oudin parlay

[EaglesPhan36]

Looks like Chardy is gonna go down unless Lacko falls apart in the 2nd. Chardy hasn't been able to do dick with Lacko's serve. Lacko is 24/26 on points from his 1st serve right now. Won't beat many guys who serve like that. Chardy is solid at 24/29, but not enough.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 16-22-1 (-6.11)

Fark. Chardy retires in the 2nd and my book grades matches after 1 set. Couldn't quit in the 1st eh? French fukka.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 17-23-1 (-6.44)

At least Oudin sucked enough kawk to get the UNDER in. I didn't think about this until now, but the line was really fishy. Oudin played a player ranked just 20 or so spots behind Arviddson yesterday and the line was more than double what it was today. 6-1, 6-3 Arviddson springs the upset.

[Boner_18]

He is a complete enigma to me right now. I'm going to make a serious effort to avoid him completely next time is see his name cross the board.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was trying to see what he retired with, but haven't found anything. Definitely a no play for the forseeable future. Shouldn't have taken him off that list because of one match. That was stupid of me. Oh well, another .500 day for me with a slight loss. Getting better, but need to have a couple winning days in a row.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #42: [ATP - Memphis] Petzschner/Lacko OVER 23 (-120)
Petzschner's serve has popped with aces this tournament, but he has shown a propensity for playing tie breakers. Lacko puts forth good effort. They played three sets last week featuring a tie breaker in the 1st and then Petzschner rolling in the next two. Expecting a more even match perhaps, but should be competitive.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 17-24-1 (-7.64)

How you play a 3 set match and finish with less than 23 games is probably one of the most marvelously BS things I have seen yet. 3 sets of 6-1 assuming the last finishes that way, could be 6-0. F-ing r-tards.

[w3coyote]

Play #42: [ATP - Memphis] Petzschner/Lacko OVER 23 (-120)

I don't know if there is such thing as "bad beat" in tennis betting, but this one is pretty damn close.

[Dr.Gonzo]

3 sets and they finish on 21 games

I feel for you on that one Eagles... tough beat

[Boner_18]

I just got in from running errands in Manhattan and glanced at the results and instantly thought of you. That's rough.

[EaglesPhan36]

Par for the course. I was lucky I woke up just before the Llodra match started and got my bet in on that one, so I off-set the losses with that, but didn't have time to put it into my picks. Trying to make up my mind about one for afternoon.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #43: [ATP - Memphis] Ernests Gulbis +150
Been impressed with his resurgence here and he needed it. His serve has been lethal, especially with 20 aces yesterday. He'll need to bring that cannon against Berdych today. Both can go totally mental at any time, so the better price sits well with me and I was a little surprised to see that Berdych's all-time record on indoor hard courts is pretty average (under 60%). Gulbis really has nothing to lose, so I hope he lets it all hang out today.

[illcrushem]

nothing to lose but his mind. The guy seems pretty nuts

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 18-24-1 (-6.14)

Ha! Berdych chokes. Up 5-4, serving for the 3rd set he got broke and then Gulbis pushed it to a tie break and won, 7-3. Nooooice! Gulbis had 20+ aces again.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #44: [WTA - Memphis] Sharapova/Kvitova OVER 18.5 (-140)
Heavy chalk here, but it looks promising. I have no idea how Sharapova won yesterday. Her stats were horrible with her points wins on both 1st & 2nd serve in the low 40s. She won 12 less points than her opponent for the match, yet somehow won 6-2, 7-5. Kvitova has battled pretty well here and has a pretty good track record of playing hard on indoor courts. Sharapova looked solid in her two matches prior to the QFs, but that match showd me that there is still plenty of inconsistencies in her game and that on any given day she may have to work and grunt her ass off to survive. Pretty heavy money has come in on Kvitova too as she's dropped nearly a dollar from +500 to +400. She was worth a punt at +500, now it's still an okay deal but not nearly as valuable for anyone with long shot aspirations. I think Kvitova can take a set here and even if she doesn't, I'm not of the mind that Sharapova is going to roll tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 19-24-1 (-5.14)

That's an actual winning day SON! Typical WTA serving in this one. 8 breaks of serve already with Sharapova maybe about to cough up #9 while serving for the match. 6-4 in the 1st, 5-3 Sharapova in the 2nd. In any case, 19 games is a done deal.

[emeka]

Great comeback by Gulbis, i see it first time when Gulbis makes a comeback from brake, he isnt very strong moral

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #45: [ATP - Memphis] Querrey/Gulbis OVER 22 (-135)
Two players enjoying fine runs this week in Memphis. The surface has been a lift for both as Gulbis has been pumping out aces all week (43 in his last two) and Querrey has been doing the same, but at a slightly lesser clip. Querrey has only really been tested once and that was his big win against Roddick last night that featured one tight set and then two heavily in the Sam-urai's favor. Gulbis has had to fight much more in his matches with the three setter against Berdych yesterday, two tight 7-5 sets against Stepanek and two 6-4 sets against Kendrick. Gulbis has used his serve to save himself from the few breakers he's offered and Querrey has offered very few as well. If both bring their big serves, I fancy at least one very tight set of 7-5 or 7-6, which means even if one wins in straights this OVER has a shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Updated Record: 19-25-1 (-6.49)

Gulbis played a little more like Gulbis today, finished 6-3, 6-4. The last game must have lasted 20 minutes. Gulbis had multiple break opps to get back on serve, but blew them all. Thems the breaks.