2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

[Jeff_Black]

233 - 236 - 19 (+50.396u)

ATP French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Thomas Fabiano vs Marin Cilic
Handicap: Thomas Fabianno +7.5, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play

ATP French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Casper Rudd vs Ernest’s Gulbis
Handicap: Ernest’s Gulbis +6, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

ATP French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Alexei Popyrin vs Ugo Humbert
Moneyline: Alexei Popyrin, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Marton Fucscovics vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Total Games: Over 36.5 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Kei Nishikori vs Quentin Halys
Set Handicap: Kei Nishikori -2.5 Sets, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Chiefs83]

Tailed on Fucs/Schw Over

[Jeff_Black]

236 - 238 - 19 (+50.93u)

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Daniel Medvedev vs Pierre Hueges Herbert
Total Score: Over 37 Games, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Denis Shapovalov vs Jan Lennard Struff
Handicap: Denis Shapovalov +3.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Yannick Hanfmann vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -11, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Sergei Stakhovsky vs Gilles Simon
Total Games: Under 32 Games, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jordan Thompson
Total Games: Over 38 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Guido Andreozzi vs Guido Pella
Total Games: Over 35.5 Games, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Alexey Vaututin vs Corentin Moutet
Handicap: Corentin Moutet -3.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Jeremy Chardy vs Kyle Edmund
Total Games: Over 39.5 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Chiefs83]

Guy won every game nice picks buddy

[Jeff_Black]

Close but still pretty happy with how it went nonetheless heh

[Jeff_Black]

43 - 39 - 19 (+57.778u)

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Steve Johnson vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Games: Under 36 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Nicolas Jarry vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Total Games: Under 36.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Fabio Fognini vs Andreas Seppi
Total Games: Over 33 Games, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
John Millman vs Alexander Zverev
Total Games: Under 34.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Dusan Lajovic vs Thiago Monterio
Handicap: Dusan Lajovic -4.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Federico Delbonis
Total Games. Over 35.5 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Taro Daniel vs Gaël Monfils
Handicap: Taro Daniel +7.5, 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R1
Martin Klizan vs Milhaud Kukushkin
Handicap: Martin Klizan -3.5, 1.961 on Pinncle
Stake: 1u plY

[DavidGoliath5003]

Close but still pretty happy with how it went nonetheless heh

Yeah Shapo screwed me too. Guy is a mental midget

[Jeff_Black]

248 - 242 - 19 (+59.408u)

French Open 2000, Round 2
Grigor Dimitrov vs Marin Cilic
Total Games: Under 39.5 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Round 2
Oscar Otte vs Roger Federer
Total Games: Under 29.5 Games, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Diego Schwartzman vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Games: Over 37 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Nicholas Mahut
Total Games: Under 32 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Rafael Nadal vs Yannick Maden
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -12, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Salvatore Caruso vs Gilles Simon
Total Games: Under 35.5 Games, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Corentin Moutet vs Guido Pella
Total Games: Over 34 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

Did you know that more than a half of men's grand slam games went under 3.5 sets? You could just blindly take all unders to make a profit. I just noticed because I've been burning money with over 3.5, sometimes even stupid favs like Berretini can't even win one set. I do much better with 2 set games so far.

[Jeff_Black]

Did you know that more than a half of men's grand slam games went under 3.5 sets? You could just blindly take all unders to make a profit. I just noticed because I've been burning money with over 3.5, sometimes even stupid favs like Berretini can't even win one set. I do much better with 2 set games so far.

I’m the opposite. I see great variance with the value of the lines when it comes to best of five set matches because there are definitely ‘weaker’ totals set that can be taken advantage of. Sometimes they don’t work out or works out by the hook, sometimes you get lucky and sometimes there is dumb luck like the Mahut and Kohlscriebber game lol.
But because the matches are longer and it’s hard to maintain the same level of physical fitness throughout the match there are definitely spots where there are lines that can be taken advantage of.

I don’t need every match to go five sets or more then three sets, just the ones I have picked to

[Jeff_Black]

Just went through my picks for totals and sitting at 12-3 at the moment with the Thompson/Davidovich match voided and counting the Mayer/Schwartzman match as at worst it will be 38 games.

The Cilic/Dimitrov and Zverev/Millman picks were probably not great although Zverev was up 2-0 and would have gotten the Under with a routine third set win.

Garcia Lopez and Delbonis was the right idea as I felt it was four sets they just did not hit enough games, but some got lucky like the Moutin and Pella game who blew a 5-0 lead only to win the set 7-5.

Whatever works :P

[Jeff_Black]

252 - 244 - 19 (+61.074u)

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Pablo Cuevas vs Kyle Edmund
Total Games: Over 37.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Fabio Fognini vs Federico Delbonis
Total Games, Over 37 Games, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Mikhail Ymer vs Alexander Zverev
Total Games: Over 31.5 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Jordan Thompson vs Ivo Karlovic
Total Games: Over 44.5, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Adrian Mannarino vs Gaël Monfils
Total Games: Under 32 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Jan Lennard Struff vs Radu Albot
Handicap: Jan Lennard Struff -4.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R2
Martin Klizan vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Martin Klizan +4.5, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Conqueror]

Won't be surprised if all sets in the Jordan/Karlovic match end in tie-breaks.

BOL, JB!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks! Hopefully it’s like their match from two years ago I think at the French

[Jeff_Black]

All good. I feel that’s the in a nutshell version that I’ve explained but the point is made I felt.

Will acknowledge I’ve gotten lucky with some games but some are negated by the bad luck that precedented them heh

[Gaze73]

I find Thiem's line mind boggling today, 1.01! I see him at 1.1, I think Bublik will take a set. Thiem didn't look at all convincing against Paul, winning only by 5 games.

[Gaze73]

And Bublik takes the set! Almost blew it from 5:2 and again from a 5:2 tiebreak but he did it and I got it right that the odds were insane.

[Jeff_Black]

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Rafael Nadal vs David Goffin
Handicap: David Goffin +9, 2.07 on Pinnnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Stan Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov
Total Games: Over 38 Games, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 2.33 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Nicolas Mahut vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Games: Under 38 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Casper Ruud vs Roger Federer
Total Games: Under 33.5 Games, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Juan Ignacio Londero vs Corentin Moutet
Handicap: Corentin Moutet +4, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

French Open 2000. Mens Singles, R3
Jan Lennard Struff vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Jan Lennard Struff +4.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Jordan Thompson vs Juan Martin Del Potro
Set Handicap: Juan Martin Del Potro -2.5 Sets, 2.57 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Fabio Fognini vs Roberto bautista Agut
Handicap: Fabio Fognini -2.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R3
Martin Klizan vs Karen Khachanov
Total Games: Over 37.5 Games, 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles
Antoine Hoang vs Gaël Monfils
Total Games: Under 32 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

263 - 249 - 21, +67.376u

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R4
Kei Nishikori vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Benoit Paire +4, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R4
Roger Federer vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Games: Under 32 Games, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R4
Novak Djokovic vs Jan Lennard Struff
Total Games: Under 29.5 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, R4
Dominic Thiem vs Gaël Monfils
Total Games: Under 39.5 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

French Open 2000, Men’s singles, R4
Juan Martin Del potro vs Karen Khachanov
Total Games: Over 40 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

French Open 2000, Men's Singles, R4
Alexander Zverev vs Fabio Fognini
Moneyline: Alexander Zverev, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

267 - 251 - 21 (+71.292u)

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, QF
Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev
Handicap: Alexander Zverev +7, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

French Open 2000, Men’s Singles, QF
Dominic Thiem vs Karen Khachanov
Total Games: Under 39.5 Games, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[DavidGoliath5003]

Epic trap on zverev +2.5 sets @2.00 pinnacle weird

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah there's no value either way on the set line at all.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Yeah there's no value either way on the set line at all.

My initial reaction was “Zverev is starting to find form, he should be able to take a set.” I figure pinnacle would hang a -140ish for just one set. +100 is a bit concerning.

[Capybara]

Jeff, tremendous work as always.

How do you fine folks feel about Ash Barty -3.5 games this morning?

[Grivas_Digeni]

Jeff, tremendous work as always.

How do you fine folks feel about Ash Barty -3.5 games this morning?

i feel like Barty won't be playing until the next morning!

[Capybara]

i feel like Barty won't be playing until the next morning!

Lol, yup. No tennis today!

[Capybara]

Do you guys maintain confidence in your plays when they get pushed up a day? Guess it depends on what your angles were.

[Jeff_Black]

My initial reaction was “Zverev is starting to find form, he should be able to take a set.” I figure pinnacle would hang a -140ish for just one set. +100 is a bit concerning.

Public will still like Djokovic with his promising form here and on clay, Zverev being on a little run should have some impact on the odds too. I think that's why they are teasing the Djokovic set line

[Jeff_Black]

Jeff, tremendous work as always. How do you fine folks feel about Ash Barty -3.5 games this morning?

Thanks

Dont take my word on women's at all but I see better value in Keys here. Ash is having a career year so far too but I don't feel the value is with her

Edit: Fail

[Jeff_Black]

Do you guys maintain confidence in your plays when they get pushed up a day? Guess it depends on what your angles were.

In the slams where there is most prize money and points for offer? Definitely...

its a different story in smaller tournaments of course before slams or masters

[Gaze73]

Epic trap on zverev +2.5 sets @2.00 pinnacle weird

Tell me about it, I took it hook line and sinker. Is is just me or do favs play better at grands slams? The motivation is an obvious factor but still. I'm a dog guy at heart, always hoping they take at least a set but I barely break even doing that. Usually the dogs drop the first 2 sets and then I have to hope for a miracle. Khachanov already failed me and Zverev isn't looking good either. Just take every fav 3:0 and you can't lose money.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Tell me about it, I took it hook line and sinker. Is is just me or do favs play better at grands slams? The motivation is an obvious factor but still. I'm a dog guy at heart, always hoping they take at least a set but I barely break even doing that. Usually the dogs drop the first 2 sets and then I have to hope for a miracle. Khachanov already failed me and Zverev isn't looking good either. Just take every fav 3:0 and you can't lose money.

Zverev is on the doorstep. Another year (two years?) of homework and we'll be talking about big 3 but Zverev will have replaced one of the old timers. More treadmill, more yoga, general fitness stuff and a serve that works only 10-15% more often. And a usable drop shot.

Not ready for big time yet. But almost there.