2019 Tennis Season - Picks and Analysis

[Maizey]

Good to see other guys getting these Masters 1000 titles

Agreed, it meant so much more to Thiem than it did to Fed. Thiem is such a hard worker, it was nice to see that work pay off.

[Gaze73]

I was on Thiem too, sprinkled some on ML as well. I wouldn't touch favs in qualifiers though.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Lol qualifiers... why do i always think that D. King can actually win a big match..... then theres Polansky lol

[Jeff_Black]

Strong thread Jeff. One of the strongest on the internet if I'm not mistaken. Well done. So much of the year left.
I'd take Lorenzi any day even with the injury concerns. Just need to make sure it's a book like Bet365 where they refund even after the first set played.

Yep he squeaked through on that one, had Belemans favoured on the surface and it didn't pay off. Seen plenty of Lorenzi to know he's a scrapper but if Belemans was any lower priced I wouldn't have considered it.

I guess I partly have your bold risk taking to thank for some of the risks I've taken so far which have paid off. The Griekspoor 9.63 was probably the biggest dog I've ever taken on any of my times posting here which I may not have considered in the past. And may not have even looked at. Yet there are so many more that we don't look at which seem so obvious like that Jung/Tiafoe match we talked about at NY heh

Lol qualifiers... why do i always think that D. King can actually win a big match..... then theres Polansky lol

He did ok when I backed him against Ymer in Indian Wells but the rain delays threw him off and he completely fell apart. I agree it can be tough and i'll roll with the punches but from my very rough memory I'm probably ahead in them for the time being so I'll keep doing them from time to time when I have the time to.

Well aside from today, not a great start!

[Jeff_Black]

157 - 155 - 13 (+47.419u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Round 1 doesn't start yet but this one stood out to me odds wise. Have Lopez much more favoured then the odds despite him being flaky. I keep forgetting how old he is but he does have somewhat of an effortless game like Federer which means he doesn't get injured. Paire also hasn't won an outdoor match on hardcourts since January in Chennai.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Alexander Bublik vs Dan Evans
Handicap: Dan Evans -3, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Mackenzie McDonald vs Lorenzo Sonego
Moneyline: Mackenzie McDonald, 1.641 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[DavidGoliath5003]

157 - 155 - 13 (+47.419u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Round 1 doesn't start yet but this one stood out to me odds wise. Have Lopez much more favoured then the odds despite him being flaky. I keep forgetting how old he is but he does have somewhat of an effortless game like Federer which means he doesn't get injured. Paire also hasn't won an outdoor match on hardcourts since January in Chennai.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Alexander Bublik vs Dan Evans
Handicap: Dan Evans -3, 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Mackenzie McDonald vs Lorenzo Sonego
Moneyline: Mackenzie McDonald, 1.641 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Probably the only guy on a slower hardcourt that Lopez will be favorited against lol. Paire has to be one of the biggest dissapointments on tour

[Jeff_Black]

Probably the only guy on a slower hardcourt that Lopez will be favorited against lol. Paire has to be one of the biggest dissapointments on tour

Yeah heh, both guys have actually been ok here. Lopez going back to 2003 has only lost here once, same as Paire whos sample size is way smaller with some years him not even being in the main draw. But Paire has had some chump draws too. Like last year he played Mischa Zverev and Novak when it was like his first or second match back from injury and he clearly didnt give a stuff about HCs at the time.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Yeah heh, both guys have actually been ok here. Lopez going back to 2003 has only lost here once, same as Paire whos sample size is way smaller with some years him not even being in the main draw. But Paire has had some chump draws too. Like last year he played Mischa Zverev and Novak when it was like his first or second match back from injury and he clearly didnt give a stuff about HCs at the time.

Ahh ok, i guess im used to Lopez not really giving a shit until Grass season. I forgot about Paires success here last year. Lopez likes this court and the one in Toronto. Paire will have to hit alot of dropshots to win i think

[Jeff_Black]

Sorry that was meant to say 'has only lost in the first round once' for both Lopez and Paire lol

I was actually surprised that Lopez does better at IW but we'll see here.

[Gaze73]

Bolt steamed from 1.91 to 1.49 and couldn't win a set, qualifiers are the worst. The other day I had 4 favs in the 1.4 - 1.5 range in qualifiers and they all lost, that's when I decided to stop betting qualifiers.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah with these rain delays I am not going to bother, just focus on Round 1, which also starts tommorow.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Tomas Berdych vs Bernard Tomic
Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -1.5 Sets, 1.781 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Janko Tipsarevic vs Bradley Klahn
Moneyline: Janko Tipsarevic 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Mateo Berreteni vs Hubert Hurkacz
Moneyline: Hubert Hurkacz, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Marius Copil vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Moneyline: Albert Ramos Vinolas, 1.671 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[pabonaparte]

Good luck to us in Miami, Jeff_Black!

Tomas Berdych (-1.5 Sets)
#9655xxxxx Accepted

Bernard Tomic (+1.5 Sets) - Tomas Berdych (-1.5 Sets) Match Odds - Match - ATP Miami - R1

16.00
Stake

@ -128
12.50
Win


Mackenzie McDonald
#9653xxxxx Accepted

Mackenzie McDonald - Lorenzo Sonego
Match Odds - Match - ATP Miami - Qualifiers
36.00
Stake

@ -144
25.00
Win

[Jeff_Black]

Argh serves me right, Qualifiers stunk, actual round matches went well.

Only one pending at the moment is Lopez.

159 - 157 - 14 (+46.679u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Reilly Opeika vs Jan Lennard Struff
Moneyline: Reilly Opeika, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Tennys Sandgren vs Alexander Bublik
Moneyline: Tennys Sandgren, 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R1
Pablo Andujar vs Ivo Karlovic
Handicap: Pablo Andujar +3, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

164 - 158 - 14 (+49.935u)

Correction: Ramos Vinolas was still in play at the time.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R2
Federico Delbonis vs John Millman
Moneyline: Federico Delbonis, 2.38 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R2
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Janko Tipsarevic
Handicap: Janko Tipsarevic +4.5, 2.139 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R2
Lucas Pouille vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Moneyline: Albert Ramos Vinolas, 2.469 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R2
Jeremy Chardy vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon -1, 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

167 - 159 - 13 (+53.407u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R2
Leonardo Mayer called Guido Pella
Moneyline: Leonardo Mayer, 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R2
Marco Cecchinato vs Damir Dzuhmir
Moneyline: Damir Dzuhmir, 2.20 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R2
Grigor Dimitrov vs Feliciano Lopez
Handicap: Feliciano Lopez +2.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 2.53 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u & 1u plays

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R2
Reilly Ophelia vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Moneyline: Reilly Opeika, 2.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mackenzie McDonald
Handicap: Mackenzie McDonald +4, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

Good job, you're crushing it with the dogs! I found out that my best bets are also on dogs and it makes sense that there's more value on the less obvious picks, and the spreads really help.

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks. Tbh I found matchups where I thought it was closer to 50/50 odds wise and if the odds were the other way around on the player I liked I may have avoided it.
I’ve had those days where they don’t get up but it be like that sometimes. If you can hit more of them then not well that’s always good heh.
And yes sometimes you do go for it because there is value on the dog and the favourite shouldn’t be favoured so much even those ones you can get away with hitting less...

169 - 162 - 14 (+51.827u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R3
Borna Coric vs Jeremy Chardy
Moneyline: Jeremy Chardy, 2.54 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R3
Filip Krajinovic vs Roger Federer
Handicap: Filip Krajinovic +4.5, 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R3
Hubert Hurkacz vs Felix Auger Alliasime
Moneyline: Felix Auger Alliasime, 2.36 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R3
Daniil Medvedev vs Reilly Opeika
Moneyline: Reilly Opeika, 3.51 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Men’s Singles, R3
Grigor Dimitrov vs Jordan Thompson
Set Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -1.5 sets, 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Gaze73]

Unless he's injured, Thompson looks like a great dog to me, +3.5G all the way. Btw you keep typing Opeika, it's Opelka

[Jeff_Black]

Unless he's injured, Thompson looks like a great dog to me, +3.5G all the way. Btw you keep typing Opeika, it's Opelka

Serves me right for backing Dimitrov whilst he was coming back from an injury not having played since the Australian Open. The rust certainly showed.

170 - 166 - 14 (+49.187u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Felix Auger-Alliassime vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Handicap: Felix Auger-Alliassime -1, 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Novak Djokovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +4.5, 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

I may regret this but would have thought this would be 4 or 3.5 with extra juice. Certainly had his number over recent matches. Never an easy match for Novak against Bautista Agut.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Denis Shapovalov
Moneyline: Stefanos Tsitsipas, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
David Goffin vs Francis Tiafoe
Handicap: Francis Tiafoe +2.5, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

173 - 167 - 14 (+52.871u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Roger Federer vs Daniil Medvedev
Handicap: Roger Federer -3.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, QF
Roberto Bautista Agut vs John Isner
Handicap: John Isner -1, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, QF
Felix Auger Alliassime vs Borna Coric
Moneyline: Felix Auger Alliassime, 2.26 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Well I think I got lucky with the rain delay a bit with Bautista...

[Gaze73]

Great pick on Bautista, I thought he was done after the first set, odds must've been like 30/1. I also have a bet on Medvedev +3.5 but the game got rescheduled. I keep running into your favs, heh.

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks. Actually popped back in to edit my previous quotes as they were QF and not R4 matches being played

Yeah it's an interesting match up here between the two but with Novak out the draw works out well in Federer's favour. He's playing both to keep his points up so he can stay in the top 5-10. Federer will probably offer more on the return of serve then Medvedev's other opponents but -3.5 was the sweet spot for mine, if it was 3 or 4 I would have passed heh.

[Jeff_Black]

176 - 167 - 14 (+61.196u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, QF
Denis Shapovalov vs Francis Tiafoe
Handicap: Francis Tiafoe +3, 1.819 on Pinnacle
Moneyline: Francis Tiafoe 2.76 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play and 1u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, QF
Roger Federer vs Kevin Anderson
Set Handicap: Kevin Anderson +1.5 Sets, 2.56 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not as confident with this one as my usual deeper plays but I think the odds present some good value in comparison to the other markets which I think there is too much chalk on. So if anyone doesn't want something that may be a bit riskier probably sit that one out. But as I mentioned the odds (to me) make it worth a play. My best hope would be for Anderson to squeeze out a tiebreak and his serving numbers have been pretty good and have gotten better as the tournament has gone on. Even with that set against Munar which he dropped he's serving over 70/60 on first and second serves.
Whilst Federer is a big step up from his other opponents Anderson will have that confidence from the Wimbledon win knowing he can beat him, and fight to the last point. It is more of an Anderson or pass play for mine, so if you really like Anderson in general, taking his markets would be ideal.

[Gaze73]

Do you ever bet challengers? I feel like all the dogs are completely useless there, none of them can even cover the spread. E.g. just now Karatsev, rank 437 vs 136, lost H2H 6:2 6:3 2 months ago, the only time he can win is against rank 300 players. For some damn reason he had a very good market support but he lost exactly as I expected. He should've been priced at 4.0 not 2.5. Another guy Viola - strong market support, lost 6:1 6:1, totally useless.

[Jeff_Black]

Do you ever bet challengers? I feel like all the dogs are completely useless there, none of them can even cover the spread. E.g. just now Karatsev, rank 437 vs 136, lost H2H 6:2 6:3 2 months ago, the only time he can win is against rank 300 players. For some damn reason he had a very good market support but he lost exactly as I expected. He should've been priced at 4.0 not 2.5. Another guy Viola - strong market support, lost 6:1 6:1, totally useless.

Not really, I follow it and keep track of who is in form and who isn't. Pretty sure you can stream for free off it too I think?
I don't mind it during gap periods but my priority is Mens Singles ATP matches. I have deliberately even just started focussing on one tournament per week when I'm betting and maybe doing the others during the later rounds just to have that bit of focus. I mean I follow all the tournaments but betting wise I feel for me it works and well so far so good

176 - 170 - 14 (+58.196u)

Ideally and I didn't check the odds, I imagine others did I probably could have been a bit smarter and hedged off Shapovalov live. Odds might not have been too great considering he broke right away but Tiafoe fought hard, I'm not complaining.

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, SF
John Isner vs Felix Auger Aliassime
Handicap: Felix Auger Alliassime +1.5, 2.5 on Pinnacle)
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

I am going to pass on the other Semi Final (Federer/Shapovalov)

Will be very interesting to see how Denis's Backhand matches up with Roger's Forehand. I think Roger's BH is superior to Denis's FH so I imagine Roger will attack Denis's FH side at every opportunity.
If I was Denis, I would be running Roger off his feet. The young guys have to realise that the huge Age Difference represents a great opportunity for them.

Head and heart says Federer is too much, but have to respect what Shapovalov has done here too. I do have a hunch Anderson wasn't 100% despite fighting back and this is his first tournament in a while but I do hope it's a good one as a spectator..

[Conqueror]

With Djokovic out, can't fade the Fed here. Huge opportunity for another title.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah could be a bit of a mental battle for the young one.

Roger has so many options that he could make Denis look ordinary. Then again, if Roger is a bit tight/sore and isn't serving/moving great, Denis could win.

Denis probably won't serve Roger off the court as he's a shorty in tennis terms and will definitely be nervous.

[Gaze73]

Federer is in beast mode, turned Anderson into meatloaf. I'm not fading him today.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Federer is in beast mode, turned Anderson into meatloaf. I'm not fading him today.

Lol Maaa! The Meatloaf! Fckk

[Jeff_Black]

176 - 171 - 14 (+56.196u)

WTA Miami Masters 1000, Womens Singles, Final
Ash Barty vs Karolina Pliskova
Handicap: Ash Barty -1, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs John Isner
Handicap: John Isner +2.5, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Gaze73]

I would never take -1, especially in WTA, game can easily go 1:6 6:3 6:4, not worth the 10% better odds. Opposing beast Fed is brave, I'm staying off of this one. 7:6 6:4 Fed imo.

[DavidGoliath5003]

176 - 171 - 14 (+56.196u)

WTA Miami Masters 1000, Womens Singles, Final
Ash Barty vs Karolina Pliskova
Handicap: Ash Barty -1, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs John Isner
Handicap: John Isner +2.5, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

If its hot and humid i could see isner winning

[Conqueror]

176 - 171 - 14 (+56.196u)

WTA Miami Masters 1000, Womens Singles, Final
Ash Barty vs Karolina Pliskova
Handicap: Ash Barty -1, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, Final
Roger Federer vs John Isner
Handicap: John Isner +2.5, 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Like the OVER more in the Isner game. Can easily 3 sets with at least 2 tiebreakers.

[Jeff_Black]

177 - 172 - 14 (+56.118u)

Well we shouldn't be surprised Federer dominated again. Disappointing from Isner's point of view but he defended 600 of his 1000 points so not bad of an effort. An interesting note in Federer's post match chat with ESPN (not the on-court one) after the Shapovalov win and he mentioned it's the first time he's played without injuries/painkillers in a long time. Indicates that he is pretty much in perfect health at the moment.

Anyway there are only women's tournaments on this week which do not interest me, so i'll enjoy the week off before going into clay season, Yip Yip!