SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[makman]

Marcora - Millman game is going to some valuable odds close to end of 1st set. Any views on this SirtySree ?

[Coolsmarti]

Up a break, and throws it away instantly .. Chung legs is gone.
EDIT: And back again. GSM.

[SirtySree]

Anyone else having issues with this site? Hasn't been loading properly or really slow for me 90% of the time in the past week and really bad right now.

Had a couple more plays which I couldn't post. As for Millman, he's 30/36 whereas Marcora is 1/6 using same methods above. Odds are pretty low though so I didn't play it as was hoping for Millman to get broken early but it didn't happen and now he broke.

[makman]

bets are closed for millman game in bet365 . Does it mean something?

[Coolsmarti]

bets are closed for millman game in bet365 . Does it mean something?

Marcora started in 2.75 at Bet365 ... Was at 6.50 at gametime .. Someone is loosing a lot of money ..

[Hardcoar]

When he's the pre-game favourite, he has won 48/58 matches in 2015 and 2014 on hard court.

That's cute, but given your betting pattern it's not all that interesting unless he also won at least half of the matches where he lost the first set...

[SirtySree]

That's cute, but given your betting pattern it's not all that interesting unless he also won at least half of the matches where he lost the first set...

Yep definitely. If a player makes comebacks plus the opponent loses up a set is always what I check first before I even look at the other statistics. Just a lot harder to give a figure on how often they make comebacks whereas the other stats I can straight copy paste.

Like for Chung's example, he's make so many comebacks in the last year but I wouldn't be able to give a exact figure without taking quite a long time to count it and then calculate. By that time, chances are the odds have already changed drastically making it pointless for me to then post the bet that I have.

[SirtySree]

Jarry @3 - 40/49 going with one of my fav players.

[SirtySree]

Taking a punt with Babos @3.5 down set and break 3-2. 17/20 whereas opponent is 3/15 using method above.

EDIT: Babos gave up after the break and barely won a point.

[SirtySree]

Rodina @4

[Snowball]

Jarry @3 - 40/49 going with one of my fav players.

nice comeback by Nicholas, i needed him.
are you using European-style odds ?

[SirtySree]

nice comeback by Nicholas, i needed him.
are you using European-style odds ?

Yep very nice comeback, was @4.5 after getting broken in 1st game of 2nd set. I use decimal odds so $100 to win $300 making it a $200 profit.

[Snowball]

Yep very nice comeback, was @4.5 after getting broken in 1st game of 2nd set. I use decimal odds so $100 to win $300 making it a $200 profit.

i think i'm confused.. Jarry was a favorite of 1.38 going into the match. it doesn't make sense he would go from
1.38 to 4.50 after one break down.
euro odds to an american like me make the dogs look bigger. +200 is 3.0 etc.

[SirtySree]

i think i'm confused.. Jarry was a favorite of 1.38 going into the match. it doesn't make sense he would go from
1.38 to 4.50 after one break down.
euro odds to an american like me make the dogs look bigger. +200 is 3.0 etc.

$4.5 was when Jarry was down a set already + down a break 1-0 in the 2nd set. He was at $3 or +200 when he was just down a set when I made the bet.

I think American odds are confusing to anyone not American.

[Snowball]

+ down a break 1-0 in the 2nd set.

ok makes sense now. i was away.
i bet Seles but wow does Sabatini still look hot and strong for 45 !! espn3

[SirtySree]

Rodina decided to be a pain in the ass and almost blew a 5-0 lead in the 3rd set. Ended up hedging a bit cause I wasn't prepared to lose $400 after some tough losses last night. Wasn't able to post picks or thoughts on some matches yesterday cause this site wasn't loading properly.

+$1032 (Slightly less with hedges and a few losses not posted yesterday)

[gaebiskon]

Yep definitely. If a player makes comebacks plus the opponent loses up a set is always what I check first before I even look at the other statistics. Just a lot harder to give a figure on how often they make comebacks whereas the other stats I can straight copy paste.

Like for Chung's example, he's make so many comebacks in the last year but I wouldn't be able to give a exact figure without taking quite a long time to count it and then calculate. By that time, chances are the odds have already changed drastically making it pointless for me to then post the bet that I have.

SS, where on tennisprediction.com can I check how many times a player has won after losing 1st set?

[SirtySree]

SS, where on tennisprediction.com can I check how many times a player has won after losing 1st set?

You can't. You have to just use tennislive.net and manually look through which is fairly easy. Tennisprediction is just for how often a player wins as a fav/dog and allows for manipulation of data like just looking at finals, particular surface, and etc.

[SirtySree]

Saw a couple of matches tmrw that I think were interesting at Indian Wells.

min @4 vs erakovic
- erakovic only plays well on fast surfaces and indian wells is a slow hard court
- erakovic has lost in 1st round every year and is 0-6 here
- min's form is questionable though so spread, 1st set, or to win a set may be slightly better

larsson @2.62 vs pavly
- pavly usually only has a couple of good tournaments a year and is crap the rest of the time
- pavly's record is poor at indian wells and larsson bet pavly here last year

fratangelo @3.6+ vs coric (rising)
- two very similar players and i expect the match to be a long grind
- most likely going to be like a WTA match with several breaks each set

kukushkin @2 vs pospisil
- slower hard court will hamper pospisils game
- kukushkin almost double bagelled pospisil here last yr

[makman]

Saw a couple of matches tmrw that I think were interesting at Indian Wells.

min @4 vs erakovic
- erakovic only plays well on fast surfaces and indian wells is a slow hard court
- erakovic has lost in 1st round every year and is 0-6 here
- min's form is questionable though so spread, 1st set, or to win a set may be slightly better

larsson @2.62 vs pavly
- pavly usually only has a couple of good tournaments a year and is crap the rest of the time
- pavly's record is poor at indian wells and larsson bet pavly here last year

fratangelo @3.6+ vs coric (rising)
- two very similar players and i expect the match to be a long grind
- most likely going to be like a WTA match with several breaks each set

kukushkin @2 vs pospisil
- slower hard court will hamper pospisils game
- kukushkin almost double bagelled pospisil here last yr

Thanks for the analysis. Interesting and logical

[SirtySree]

I seem to always have issues loading this site around this time. Might struggle to post my picks here but I'll try get them up.

Toljan @2.75 (Was @3.75 after getting bagelled but my book didn't have it until just now)
Ridout @5

[SirtySree]

Few more lines out for Indian Wells that I like.

Ramos @3.75 vs Troicki
- slow hard court where Troicki has struggled a little bit
- ramos prefers slow surfaces and beaten the likes of Gasquet here
- would look at taking Ramos 1st set over the ML or the over as I expect a close game

Sousa @2.62 vs Dodig
- i like Sousa on slow surfaces where he can load up with his forehand
- sousa bet dodig easily not long ago and dodig has been average so far this yr

Russell @2 vs Melzer
- it's a shame the odds are bit too low to really make a play but posting it cause im still on the melzer fade train

[Snowball]

fratangelo @3.6+ vs coric (rising)
- two very similar players and i expect the match to be a long grind
- most likely going to be like a WTA match with several breaks each set

if Fratboy breaks Borna and the match goes long grind I will be very surprised.
I don't think he has the talent or consistency to beat Coric unless Coric has a
terrible error-laden performance. Would more expect a quick 2-setter dismissal.

[SirtySree]

if Fratboy breaks Borna and the match goes long grind I will be very surprised.
I don't think he has the talent or consistency to beat Coric unless Coric has a
terrible error-laden performance. Would more expect a quick 2-setter dismissal.

Frat may struggle to hold but hel definitely get opportunites to break. Chances to break against Coric is never a problem for most player but its holding thats the problem.

A lobsided scoreline is very possible with the number of break opportunities I believe will occur but the scoreline may not accurately show how close the match will be like in many WTA matches or clay matches.

[SirtySree]

+$1332

Annoyed at myself for passing on Mertens. He let me down in his last match so I decided to pass on him.

[Snowball]

Frat may struggle to hold but hel definitely get opportunites to break. Chances to break against Coric is never a problem for most player but its holding thats the problem.

A lobsided scoreline is very possible with the number of break opportunities I believe will occur but the scoreline may not accurately show how close the match will be like in many WTA matches or clay matches.

are we gonna get a feed on it ?

[Snowball]

Coric.. still immature ! 6-2,1-6.... WTA is right !

[Coolsmarti]

Coric had medical timeouts at 3-0 down in the 2nd set ..

[neureicher]

Jaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaa

[Snowball]

Coric won, but nice call on the match being the way it was !
i woulda never thunk it.

[SirtySree]

Failtangelo backers must be spewing. Match point serving for the match and loses 3 points in a row to get broken, break point the following game and loses 3 points in a row to not break, match point on Coric's 2nd serve in the tiebreak and loses, match point on his own serve and loses both his service games, and then Coric's 1st match point on his 2nd serve and wins the match.

=================

Ward @3.25 down a set
Russell @5.55 down a set

[Coolsmarti]

One of the worst ATP chokes in a while for me .. I had him at 5.50 pre-match ...

[SirtySree]

Rodina @4.5 down a set

[SirtySree]

Yashina @4

[SirtySree]

Dzalamidze @3.75