SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis
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gaebiskonSBR Wise Guy
- 03-10-12
- 869
#176Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#177Ramialison @3.5. 35/41 as favourite last year + this year.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#179
Disappointed I missed out on Caregaro though. Got scared out of it as the 1st set was too lobsided for me.Comment -
makmanSBR MVP
- 10-31-10
- 1019
#180i got Panfil in the first when he was down a break @-133. no big odds, but decent profitComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#181^ Was waiting for Panfil to lose the 1st set before I went in but never ended up happening which was disappointing for me
Mertens @3.5 down a set and 1-0 on serve. Less confident in this one but still a good bet.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#182Pavly down 3-2 2nd set @3.25. Would take for the match but thats only @5 and I think I can get better value at some point during the 3rd set if needed.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#183Zhao Cai @3.75 down set and 2-1 with 40-A.
EDIT: Fak, I put money on an injured player. Hoping for a retirement now.Last edited by SirtySree; 03-06-15, 10:01 PM.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#184Jani @3.25Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#186^ Was waiting for Lapko to lose the 1st set but she somehow won it so I didn't get a bet in. Also missing out on Pereira at the moment who I was so close to taking but backed out last minute.
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+$697
My pre-game analysis stuff all turned out pretty good but not tracking that as mentioned. All the matches in NZ/China Davis Cup going 5 sets so far which is what pretty much happened last year as well.
I will have a few more pre-game stuff later once lines are up but the one i see out at the moment is:
Venus @2.08 against W u
- No idea why Venus is the underdog playing at home. W u won in China last year in 5 sets could be the reason but I expect Venus to take this in 3 or 4 sets as not only is he at home but he is a much better player than last year.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#187Ivanovic @4 down a set and 2-1 2nd set down a break. Ivanovic 14-0 on hard court as the favourite in semifinals and finals of 2014/2015. Also 38/48 on all hard court matches as fav in 2014/2015.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#188Na-Ri Kim @2.5Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#189Jasika @4.35 down a set and 1-0 0-30 2nd set down break.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#190+$832
Jasika with the big win. Peaked at $7 but couldn't pull the trigger yet as wasn't sure if he would turn things around and that he was having a bad game.
Kim broke in the 1st game of the 2nd set then barely won a single point after that. Not sure what happened there as it was a pretty lobsided matchup going in.
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New Zealand took out China 4-1 after they decided not to play Zhang who played back to back 5 setters.
Kavcic 2-0 @3
- Zhang was too exhausted to play today after playing 10 sets in 2 days.
- Tired angle only works here because it meets a bunch of criteria and not just that he has played lots of matches. He hasn't actually played many matches but he is a challenger level player playing 5 setters which he is not use to plus the travel will be a killer.
- He is scheduled to play tomorrow but not sure if his match will be pushed back but to travel from New Zealand back to China is a long flight. If they play on scheduled time, he would be playing straight after coming off the plane if he makes it in time. He would've needed to leave within a couple of hours after the matches.
- Regarldless if he's tired or jetlagged, Kavcic is the better player despite a shaky year so far and is 2-0 H2H.
Lindell @7 against Melzer
- Probably wouldn't play the ML but maybe something like to win a set. Still on the fade Melzer train.
Ymer @2.37 against Maurer
- Not really a play but just wanted to discuss the match.
- Wished Ymer was playing after Lindell. Ymer is a big game player and has won 5th leg deciders a few times now for Sweden.
- Ymer's biggest issue was his 2nd serve and power game last year but so far this year, his 2nd serve has improved and even gave Melzer, who is a good returner trouble with it. His game has also changed quite a bit from constructing points to becoming a power hitter which has seen him have success this year on hard court.
- Could see a close 5 setter here but not sure if Ymer can take this.
More plays to come soon once odds are out. Quite a few players potentially coming out of Davis Cup into Challenger events who could be a good fade as they aren't use to 5 set matches. (eg. Samper-Montana to beat Souza who had a 5 setter and potentially another close game today. Plus Samper bet Souza early this year already).
EDIT: Kavcic has gone from 1.5 to 1.9 for some strange reason. I can't see how Zhang is favoured here apart from playing at home. Only way he has a shot here is if his match ends up being one of the later ones.Last edited by SirtySree; 03-08-15, 05:22 AM.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#191Panfil @3.75 down set and break 1-0 0-30. 34/41 using same details as above and naso 4/16 as dog plus has a very average finals record.
Hes actually @6 nw cause he didnt break and im posting lateComment -
minnows22SBR Rookie
- 03-07-15
- 3
#192nice run Sree!! Any input on Tomic vs Rosol ??Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#193^ sorry didnt c in time bt i thought there was nothing really worth betting there. tomic only @1.2 so cnt bet that and Rosol u wouldnt expect to beat Tomic.
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+$732
SamperMontana odds are dropping as expected. If you missed out, the value is some what gone now.
I made a mistake and Zhang is actually playing tomorrow so I wouldn't worry about him being tired but that being said, Kacvic is still the better player regardless.
Don't see anything else in particular. It's another new week and I love early round matches so expect a lot more favourites down a set bets today, tomorrow, and possible day after that.Comment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#194Every time from now on when I list a fraction (like 23/26 below), it means that as a fav on that surface in 2014 and 2015, they hav won 23 out of 26 matches. Just easier for me then retyping it every time.
Ji-Hee Choi @3.4 - 23/26Comment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#195I took Danny cox live @3.50 in 2nd set 2-3 thinking about your method.
Maybe I should cash-out @6.50, but I dont cash out at allComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#196
Baena just broke Cox back though. I wouldn't hedge in the current position either.Comment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#197I think Baena has thisComment -
makmanSBR MVP
- 10-31-10
- 1019
#198
good call. I had him @ +300 in the second set when he was down a break. He broke back. Let's wait and see if he can comebackComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#199Cox won 9/10 games in a row before losing the last 5 games in row unfortunately.
Even though a hedge would have been good, I still back my policy of no/minimal hedging. If you crunch the number, 90%+ winner as favourite before considering how often he actually even loses from that position would equal never in 2014/2015 I would think.
If you hedged even in just a handful of those wins of his, you wouldn't even come close to recovering the losses from this game. (EDIT: Reading that last sentence, it doesnt really make sense but I cant think of a proper way to re-word it)
That's my thinking on hedging anyways and I usually reserve it for only 2 scenarios. 1 being I really need the money and 2, I get a great hedging price without even needing my player playing the last set but that is very rare.
Thinking if she takes the 2nd set, the 3rd set will almost be a given 90% of the time.Comment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#201Hoping for Chung to lose the firstComment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#202Sirty where can we check challenger tour stats? I think Kudravtsev may be the undisputed leader on most break points wasted. Whenever I see this guys name on left frame/live bet menu guy chokes a bpComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#203Kudry retired. He does waste quite a few at times and you can find stats of matches on tennislive.net or tennisprediction.com if you wanted details on how often they win/lose as fav/dog.Comment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#206Not these stats. Guy wastes 10 bps in a set and sometimes 5 to 10 in a game. I just want to see his break points stats on challenger tourComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
#207Chung is 48/58 if that helps. My darn book, 10bet deciding to be a pain right now
Don't know of any that shows for all matches together. Only know ones that show game by game.Comment -
kenzSBR MVP
- 12-09-12
- 4879
#208
ATP has combined stats but wish ı had challenger stats too. But I know keeping challenger record should be extremely toughComment -
SirtySreeSBR MVP
- 12-19-13
- 2370
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CoolsmartiSBR High Roller
- 06-03-10
- 147
#210I took Chung at 2.28 ML, but I have a bad feeling .. He seems unstable ..Comment
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