Honeybadger's picks

[NguyenImproved]

Brazil/Mexico under 3 @1.79 Pinnacle - 3 units
As I wrote above, this line is way too high. This Brazilian team is not built to play attractive football and score bunch of goals, but to get the job done, at any cost. Mexico will probably have their little finals against Croatia in next round, which should decide, who is getting the spot in next phase. It would be crucial to get some kind of adventage over Croatia before that game, so 1 point from this game, would be huge. They will probably park the bus and do everything defensively to keep their net untouched. Can they succeed? I am not sure, but I definitely don't give them much chances to scre themselves. Correct score 1-0, or 2-0.

Good bet. Mexico will probably win 1-0.
Oscar is rubbish. Neymar is flashy and can score with time and space. The hosts may get desperate if they don't get a breakthrough and give the opposition chances to counter.

In the tennis this Tomic guy looks great value against an underdone and maybe unfit/ injured Gasquet. His serve power and variety should be too much for the Frenchman who has a good record on grass. But too many others seem to have the same idea. He's been HAMMERED in on all books.

[Honeybadger44]

@frugalgambler

I agree regarding Spain's chances. There is more then 55% chances for them still to get to the next phase, and you are getting value with those odds. Portgual might also get through, but they have a tough opponents in both games. They will be missing Pepe and I am not convinced about their efficiency.


@NguyenImproved

Oscar was in poor form prior the world cup. But he was one of the best, in the first game, against Croatia. Other then that, I don't know if Mexico can get a win here, but they could steal a point...

I agree that there is some value with Tomic tommorrow. Grass is his best surface, while I am still not sure if Gasquet is at his 100% after the injury.

[zec]

Oscar is rubbish lol

[NguyenImproved]

I don't see more than one goal being scored in brazil-mexico or russia-korea games.
Unders looks pretty good. Like you said Brazil didn't score many goals from conventional channels.
That doesn't mean they can't turn it around but it's good to see some proof before believing the hype.

To me germany is still the team to beat as I've said from the start. Belgium also looked solid today.

[NguyenImproved]

Oscar is rubbish lol

Just like on Sesame Street.. Oscar belongs in a bin

[Hardcoar]

...

I agree that there is some value with Tomic tommorrow. Grass is his best surface, while I am still not sure if Gasquet is at his 100% after the injury.

More importantly, I would say, whether he gives a shit outside of France.

[frugalgambler]

Belgium looked solid, Nguyen ? Did we even watch the same game ? Somebody told me USA play a good game vs Ghana. The difference in opinions can be staggering. Just because you beat an outmatched opponent does not mean you played well.

[frugalgambler]

Nice call on Brazil/Mexico under, Honeybadger . I should've listened to you but luckily my leans worked for the other two games. And I am happy Belgians managed to get by Algerians.

Three games again tomorrow, and I'd be happy to know what you think about those. I think Spain will beat Chile but not sure if they cover -1; but I might play Spain 1H small. o2.5 is already heavily juiced.

Croatia-Cameroon: it is always tricky with African teams since a lot of the time they improve as the tourney goes on. Yet, Cameroon looked pretty helpless against Mexico, but as we found out today Mexico is not such a bad team. So I am thinking o2.5 is a decent bet. I still think Croatia will win but not sure if wanna pay that juice. I do not think Cameroon will go scoreless this time as they cannot be parking the bus again.

Holland-Australia, I think Dutch should have a field day with them but I am just not sure how hard they will be trying; Holland -1.5@-145 is a little juicy but I think I might still play it or maybe over instead. Still, there is a possibility of letdown for the Flying Dutchmen.

Your insight will be greatly appreciated as always.

[NguyenImproved]

Belgium looked solid, Nguyen ? Did we even watch the same game ? Somebody told me USA play a good game vs Ghana. The difference in opinions can be staggering. Just because you beat an outmatched opponent does not mean you played well.

I understand you're racially sensitive but Algeria basically didn't touch the ball for the last 30 minutes of that game.

I never f#ckin' mentioned USA so stick to the topic if you want a proper reply. Or are your points so weak you need to augment them with random sh#t that no-one talked about?

You picked one of the few guys with a clue on these boards so I'll give you that..
But you still basically come on here begging for tips because you realise your judgement is suspect and you don't trust your own opinion (which I do congratulate you on - not many people accept their shortcomings so readily) and then you talk about "opinions" being different?

I mean are you frugal cos you have no money? Y'know... from losing so much?

[Hardcoar]

Belgium looked pretty good towards the end, from what I could tell. I'm terrible at ass. football though, I'll give you that.

[Honeybadger44]

C'mon guys, no need to argue over some nonsense...

Hantuchova -2 @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
I was backing my girl, Lauren Davis so far, but I think her streak ends here. They have similar style of play, with Davis being a better mover, but I think that Daniela has superior ball striking and a lot of experiance on grass, which she will use against young american player. I have to go with Hantuchova at such low line.

King +2.5 @1.94 Pinnacle - 3 units
Vandeweghe's serve can do a lot of damage on grass. She also has a powerful forehand, but she sometimes trys to do too much with it. Not being patient enough, trying to end the point too fast. Unforced errors pile on, and because she is not among mentally strongest, she struggles to bounce back quickly. Vania King has a lot of experiance, knows how to play on grass and will make Coco pay, for every mistake. I actually see her as a slight favorite here, so I believe there is some nice value at this line.

[Hardcoar]

I don't know that I like King at all here. Good luck though.

Edit: Bitch has been drifting as f*ck though...

[Honeybadger44]

Nice call on Brazil/Mexico under, Honeybadger . I should've listened to you but luckily my leans worked for the other two games. And I am happy Belgians managed to get by Algerians.

Three games again tomorrow, and I'd be happy to know what you think about those. I think Spain will beat Chile but not sure if they cover -1; but I might play Spain 1H small. o2.5 is already heavily juiced.

Croatia-Cameroon: it is always tricky with African teams since a lot of the time they improve as the tourney goes on. Yet, Cameroon looked pretty helpless against Mexico, but as we found out today Mexico is not such a bad team. So I am thinking o2.5 is a decent bet. I still think Croatia will win but not sure if wanna pay that juice. I do not think Cameroon will go scoreless this time as they cannot be parking the bus again.

Holland-Australia, I think Dutch should have a field day with them but I am just not sure how hard they will be trying; Holland -1.5@-145 is a little juicy but I think I might still play it or maybe over instead. Still, there is a possibility of letdown for the Flying Dutchmen.

Your insight will be greatly appreciated as always.

Thanks! Even though, I have to admit that the game between Brazil and Mexico was much more dynamic that I expected. Mexcicans played very brave, not parking the bus, but setting their defensive line pretty high up and putting pressure on Brazil, already on their side of the field. Ochoa was magnificent. Who knows what would have happened, if that Neymar header in first half would end up in the net. I am glad that everything ended up well, for my bet. I am glad to hear that you had some success with your bets! Congrats.

So, what is on the menu today. Three games, which seems pretty one-sided, but could be very tricky, imho. First one up, Netherlands-Australia. Obviously, as I sadi after that 5-1 over Spain, there will be impossible to find any value with the Netherlands in next game. And I didn't change my mind. Obviously, Netherlands had a good plan against Spain, neutralising their famous passing game with dicipline on defense, while their execution from counter-attacks was amazing. Of course, counters, are not an option against Australia, so they will have to show completely other qualities here. Can they do that? With Van Persie, Sneijder and Robben up front, yes they can. But I think these lines (-1.75 and u/o 3) are pretty spot on and does not offer any value on either side. Australia does not have much quality, but they run a lot, play ver physicall football, winning many aerial duels... And every team which has Tim Cahill on their roster, is a serious threat, from every single set-piece. It is amazing how he finds the ball every time, his timing with the headers and precision on those shots, even from very difficult positions. So, no play on the spread or total. But, I believe that both teams to score, at 2.30 is worth of a look, or maybe even Cahill to score. He is around @6 Pinnacle...

Spain-Chile. This one is tricky. Looking at the lines, I am bit surprised that you can get Spain as high as 1.55 for the win. If you think about it. Every single public bettor is thinking in a way: Spain must win this one. Who is Chile? @1.55 is a gift!
Right? So, books would get the same action on Spain, even if the price would be 1.40 . That being said, they obviously doesn't have a problem with money coming in on the Spain. Which means, they don't trust them. This is a huge event. Betting limits at Pinnacle are like 200k for for single game. Belive me, they know their sh** in such situations and I am not going to pretend I know more then they do.
Also, Chile is no pushover. They have a good team. They will have huge crowd support. They hate Spain and are smelling some blood, recognizing big chance, because Spain is vulnerable. Chile +1 might be the play,. Not great value tough...

In last game, I like Croatia. Too bad that the price is so low. Some informations are saying that Eto'o is out, because of the injury. Cameroon was one of the worst teams for me, looking at the first round of matches in groups. I shocked with the lack of aggresivness on defense, when the opposing team has the ball. They didn't put any pressure on Mexico, which had a lot of time, to do what they want in midfield. Giving too much time, to look at their options and decide, to creative midfield like Croatia's is one way to dissaster. Modric, Rakitic and Kovacic will tear them apart. Not to mention that Madzukic is coming back and probably also Pranjic, who will start at LB, where against Brazil, Vrsaljko was forced to step in, and play out of his natural position.
I would be all over Croatia, if the price would be little bit better, but in this case, there is not much I can do. Also because playing in the jungle in Manaus will be very difficult for both teams. We could see that England-Italy game and how exhausted were some of the player, in the last 20 minutes of the game, because of the humidity. Team which is better prepared physically, might be able to sneak in a goal, late in the game... Good luck with your bets, today!

[zec]

I like Croatia to win to nil. They don't concede a lot of goals and Cameroon is just in a terrible form, only shot on goal against Mexico came in 91st minute..

[NguyenImproved]

Belgium looked pretty good towards the end, from what I could tell. I'm terrible at ass. football though, I'll give you that.

So are 99.9999999999999999% of people betting on football. The only difference is they don't know it.



Sure people know the players, the intricacies of the game etc. But the reason this forum isn't on 442 is this is a sports betting site.
I mainly view football through the prism of sports betting. So for me the more important weighting will be given to a team's perception, bias in evaluating a team's level etc rather than the minutiae and mechanics of the game.

This thread is actually one of the best in terms of decent analysis.
Even if the resultant bets don't hit it's interesting to see the badger's line of thinking.
(I bet this guy is Eastern European? Or Scandi?)


It kinda sucks that this level of discussion is happening on a tennis forum.

The actual football betting forum is full of life-long losers.

If you ever want to see the reason why money can be made in gambling against idiots look not further than that forum for evidence.
Hopefully the standard improves but that would be a "lucky longshot".

[zec]

It's pretty obvious that he is from one of the former Yugoslavia countries, probably Serbia..

[Hardcoar]

Serbia!?!?

Murderer!

Hate crime!!

[Honeybadger44]

I like Croatia to win to nil. They don't concede a lot of goals and Cameroon is just in a terrible form, only shot on goal against Mexico came in 91st minute..

I liked that one yesterday, a lot, as well. But it seems I am completely staying away from that game. There is no value with betting Croatia to win. Especially if you look the current situation in the group. Draw or win is pretty much the same from Croatia. In both cases, they have to beat Mexico in the last round... Cameroon is bad, as you said, but those conditions in Manaus are ridiculos. I am afraid that they could have more "left in the tank", for the last 20 minutes... I still think that Croatia will most likely win, but I am simply not willing to take any chances at these odds. Good luck!

It's pretty obvious that he is from one of the former Yugoslavia countries, probably Serbia..

Only half point awarded, for incomplete anwser

That Crvena zvezda fan thing, gave me away, right? Yes, I am Serbian, but you are getting only half point for that guess, because I was actually born and raised in Slovenia.

Serbia!?!?

Murderer!

Hate crime!!

WTF, HC?! I thought we were friends

[Hardcoar]

Yeah I just have a poor image of Serbians.
: (

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah I just have a poor image of Serbians.
: (

Unfortunately, many people does...

[Hardcoar]

Well you can't really blame them, can you? It's a bit like Merkel being outraged by the NSA spying on Germany.

Now what shred of distrust on earth could the U.S possibly have towards Germans???

Also, as you may already have realized, I was joking.

[zec]

I am from Croatia btw; first time I suspected when you bet on Crnokosa-Zvezda. Then obviously when you said you were Zvezda fan.
It's not the same draw or win because if they draw they would have to beat Mexico by two; if they beat Cameroon, one goal victory against Mexico would be enough. Based on how Mexico looked to me yesterday (fairly decent) beating them by two with one day of rest less would be highly improbable..

[Honeybadger44]

Well you can't really blame them, can you? It's a bit like Merkel being outraged by the NSA spying on Germany.

Now what shred of distrust on earth could the U.S possibly have towards Germans???

Also, as you may already have realized, I was joking.

of course...

I am from Croatia btw; first time I suspected when you bet on Crnokosa-Zvezda. Then obviously when you said you were Zvezda fan.
It's not the same draw or win because if they draw they would have to beat Mexico by two; if they beat Cameroon, one goal victory against Mexico would be enough. Based on how Mexico looked to me yesterday (fairly decent) beating them by two with one day of rest less would be highly improbable..

Even before you said it, I was pretty much sure, that you are from Croatia

Regarding the situation in group A. Why would Croatia need to win by 2? I was under the impression, that in case of equal amount of points, h2h score is first one to break the tie? Or is it goal difference after all?
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[zec]

It goes goal differential, then total goals scored and only then head to head.

[zec]

In other news, it looks like my team, Cibona, sent a letter informing Euroleague that they cannot afford to play which would mean your team gets in.

[Honeybadger44]

oh, I was not aware of that... Very valuable info. Thanks for clearing that one out, for me.

Btw, what a dumb decision by FIFA... I think h2h should be the first tie-breaker

[Honeybadger44]

In other news, it looks like my team, Cibona, sent a letter informing Euroleague that they cannot afford to play which would mean your team gets in.

Yeah, I've seen that one already. What can I say. Undeserved, but we will take it. Sorry for seeing Cibona hitting the bottom, because they are such a big brand, badketball team with huge tradition and history. Hopefully they can make a good plan, recovering the team financialy and then get back up, where they belong.

And btw, I think that ABA league format should be changed. What is the purpose of that F4 tournament? You first play the league, with 30 games and then, doesn't matter if your score was 22-4, or 14-12, you get an opportunity to save/ruin your season in one single game. Cibona took that opportunity really well. Came to the tournament as an underdog, with nothing to lose. While our boys, were full of fear, that they will lose everything, which they worked hard for, entire season, in that one single game. And of course, that happened.
I am not trying to disrespect anyone, believe me. I just think that that format of the competition, devalues everything, which teams worked for in past 6 months...

[zec]

I agree, also with the fans boycotting the competition I heard them say it was weird to play in front of half full arena, since they are used to having great support in Europaleague. I honestly love, best of five or seven series, like NBA and like Fener/Gala are currently battling. I think our region is not ready for regional leagues to have so many games just yet, too much risk, danger, money for security, chance for bad publicity in European Union etc. it's a shame because I love good competition, if we could avoid the danger it would be awesome to watch more battles in basketball and especially soccer. Waterpolo is starting the regional league and I am vey much looking forward to that because I love waterpolo and most of the best players in the World are in our region so it should be high quality. It should be a lot of fun. Handball league is being played too but Serbian teams are weak and Croatia has only Zagreb and Nexe (questionable quality).

[zec]

Damn, King is killing the spread, hate when they crap the bed in one set..

[Honeybadger44]

She destroyed it completely. Worst case scenario for third set.

[Hardcoar]

Vania King does not care about your money.

[zec]

Last serve game was crucial, she had a couple of game points I think, had she won that game, she would be on serve in the 3rd and needing a win by anything but tie break would still look manageable

[Hardcoar]

By the way (I may be wrong seeing how I know nothing about football), isn't Spain kind of a trappy line??

[Hardcoar]

Vania King does not care about your money.

Scratch that. Clearly, she does care about it after all.

[zec]

By the way (I may be wrong seeing how I know nothing about football), isn't Spain kind of a trappy line??

Badger was saying that on the previous page. I have them all over my parlays to win and some to not lose as my local bookies offer better odds on public bets like that; badger might be familiar. Anyways, it's hard to predict how the team will respond to a disaster like that in the 1st game; similarly to how Portugal will respond too. I am of belief that as long as things are good in the locker room, the overwhelming quality on their side will prevail. Badger pointed out few days ago how France had issues in the past but they had problems in the locker room. I see no indication of such turmoil with Spain and Portugal. So I pick both Spain and Portugal to win. I was very unimpressed with the USA's performance against Ghana..