Honeybadger's picks

[JC1186]

See this topic come up every 2 weeks.

Sure you do.

[bababooey13]

Sure you do.

yup. go argue with someone else. not interested.

[NguyenImproved]

9-19 players?

I see your maths is not great for a sports better. Maybe I can help.
Seeing as he is ranked 4.
That means Only 6 other players need to be better than him to justify my ranking of him being 10th-20th best.

On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.

We all agree I assume that Murray, Nadal and Djoker would leave him for dust.

Anyway it's good to have you all overvalue him.
As I guess you haven't learnt making money from betting is best done when the majority are wrong.

I love popular opinions based on historical records and not present day facts.


Seeing Fed as a great is like comparing Ancient Greece to the bankrupt nation it is now.

[JC1186]

Lamest reply ever.

I pity you.

[kenz]

9-19 players?

I see your maths is not great for a sports better. Maybe I can help.
Seeing as he is ranked 4.
That means Only 6 other players need to be better than him to justify my ranking of him being 10th-20th best.

On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.

We all agree I assume that Murray, Nadal and Djoker would leave him for dust.

Anyway it's good to have you all overvalue him.
As I guess you haven't learnt making money from betting is best done when the majority are wrong.

I love popular opinions based on historical records and not present day facts.


Seeing Fed as a great is like comparing Ancient Greece to the bankrupt nation it is now.

Ferrer better than Federer on grass in wimbledon not to mention Isner Raonic and gulbis? You make better points than me on beating your own statement

[NguyenImproved]

Don't hijack this guy's thread with your trolling mate.

Basically if I respected YOUR opinion I'd be on YOUR thread wouldn't I?
That says it all.
I don't have time to go into your childish nonsensical debates about who's better out of Spiderman or Batman.

I'm here to read informed opinions about tennis betting.
This is about the only thread worth reading on this site although I haven't read extensively.

The rest is amateur hour.

Now go home to your Federer facebook fanpage.

BTW If you had ANY brains you'd realise if I was wrong in my OPINION (and you what they say about those...)
then why would you correct me rather than make money betting against me.
Oh yeah.

Ego.


A lot of rooster stroking on these forums. Not enough money making.
Now go back to your own worthless thread buddy. It's collecting cobwebs.

[kenz]

I try not to post much lately but could not resist this, it was golden. Dude you are trolling hardcore by saying Fed is 10th-20th at best and reached trolling nirvana by saying Ferrer is better than Federer on grass right now. If you are not trolling, I guess I should respect your opinions. Peace

[NguyenImproved]

Fed still top 10 IMO.

He can be on his day but the value is always around betting against him just because of his reputation and the fact that he has great h2hs versus everyone alive (except the T4). Factor in that many punters cashed in betting on him through the years so they can prop up this 'certainty'.

Anyways I'm glad there's so much love for Fed with other gamblers. Hopefully that translates into better prices for the guys I'll be backing to take him out Wimbledon.

My tip is he'll be going home before the second week.



Mint this:

Making money and having popular opinions supported by the majority of people are usually POLAR OPPOSITES.

[Betfrog]

Batman vs spiderman
batman +1.5 sets @1.5

[NguyenImproved]

Dude you are trolling hardcore by saying Fed is 10th-20th at best and reached trolling nirvana by saying Ferrer is better than Federer on grass right now. If you are not trolling, I guess I should respect your opinions. Peace

That is one bet I've been hanging about a year to bet on.
Ferrer to beat Fed on ANY surface.

Because of the lopsided h2h (15-0 in Fed's favour I think) Ferrer would be worth me donking a HEAP of cash on because of the value.

Any consistent baseliner is a test for Fed these days. Look at Tursunov and the qualifiers at the French Open.

But anyways part of me is happy there's still so much love for Fed. If everyone agreed with me I wouldn't have cashed in to the tune of 5K betting Stanimal at the AO final.


My only tennis bet this year.

My second bet will probably involve fading Fed at Wimbledon.


He's rated a 6-1 chance. I think it should be closer to 36-1.

[kenz]

I am not sure I get the idea of a solid baseliner doing good on grass. And Ferrer has no serve. The only year Ferrer played good on grass was 2012 but he still could not serve enough to bother top 3-4 players and still lost to Murray from 1-0 and 5-4 serving for 2nd set. And that year he was great. This year he is shaky.
Glad you cashed 5K on Stanimal beating injured Nadal.
With everyone pretty much shitty or close to shitty or not impressive for the first time in years (Novak, Murray, Del Potro, Tsonga, Wawrinka, Nadal, Berdych...) Federer has a chance but he has new twins a month ago now he is a father of 4.
This is his best chance to win a slam with everyone shitty but not sure he is up to it. Still I would not trust Ferrer, Raonic or Isner to beat him at all. Maybe Gulbis but he is not a good grass-courter.
BOL in your plays

[JC1186]

What he's writing is just complete trash kenz.

On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.

On that list, the only player IN THEIR CURRENT FORM I would consider putting in front of Fed on Grass in a best of 5 @ Wimbledon is.














































Nobody.

[NguyenImproved]

Thanks man.

Well firstly I must defend myself and say I think Nadal's 'injuries' have always come with disclaimers. I mean he was serving at 120kph in the third set when it was done and dusted and then amps his serve up to 180-190 again in the LIVE 4th set.
Gamesmanship? He's a winner and winners take every advantage. I have no moral qualms with it if that's what he feels he needs for an edge.

To my mind he is a master tactician and I admire that but I think an athlete would be a lot more hindered by a serious back injury.
He was playing at 90+% in the 4th.
Anyways I was sweating bullets when it looked like he was going to forfeit so I'm glad he 'toughed it out'.

Yes this year hasn't been a bumper crop in terms of stars dominating but I think people have been spoilt by certainty in the Fed/ Nadal era. Today's players are closer and there's way more variance in performance levels since they don't stand head and shoulders above their peers.

Thanks for going easy on me mate! I do know a lot of my theories collide head on with popular opinion.
That's usually a sign I'm on the right track.

Anyways I don't wanna hog this guy's great thread so I'll call it a night.


Keep it up man. I like perusing your posts. You should add an avatar to make it easier to see which posts are yours though!

[NguyenImproved]

I suppose it's a good thing I bet with MY money and not YOURS then, isn't it buddy?





But thanks SO much for your concern in trying to convince me of something I never asked for.
You are really good at making your opinion heard.

I think there's a proverb there somewhere. Hollow. Loud. How's it go again?

[frugalgambler]

Didn't find any good value in these lines, but here are my thoughts.

From group C, I have Colombia and Japan proceeding to the next phase, so obviously, I like them today as well.

Colombia will miss Falcao for sure, but they have 4 great strikers, behind him on depth chart (Bacca from Sevilla, Ramos from Hertha, Martinez from Porto and Guttierez from River Plate). Of course, they are not like Falcao, but still very good. Also in other positions, their team looks pretty strong, especially on the flanks with Armero and Rodriguez on on side and Zuniga and Cuadrado on the other side. That is why I am leaning their side, but I am not too thrilled about the odds. Greece play super boring football, but very disciplined at the same time. I don't like their football very much, and from what I was reading, their midfield is not that great in destructing opponents game, like it was, back in the days. That is important information, because that is huge part of their game. Mitroglu was great in Olympiacos, but since he trasfered to Fulham, he only played like 2-3 games there. And he is their starting striker. Also, don't know if Samaras can play at his best on the wing. We will see. As I said, lean toward Colombia, but not great value in the odds.

I like your thinking about Uruguay game. Suarez is out. They have a good team, but I feel they are bit overhyped, because of Cavani-Suarez duo up front. Costa Rica will obviously have very defensive minded approach and that 1H draw, does not seem like a bad option.

Italy-England is a big question mark. I don't like England's predicted starting line up. Just don't trust Henderson in the centre of the midfield, while Welbeck on the wing is not a great idea as well, imho. I can see Italy dominating the midfield in the first half with Pirlo, De Rosi and Veratti. Probably scoring an opening goal. And then England will probably rely on their young guns from the bench, like Sterling and Barkley, adding some flair to their game in second half, scoring an equalizer.

Ivory Coast-Japan. As I said, I like Japan. They always had the tactical discipline in the game and played like a team. I think that at the moment, they finaly have some individual quiality as well, to get through to the next phase.
Ivory coast has few big names on their team. But I saw few of their friendly games. Their defense was hilarious against Bosnia, few days ago. Midfielders not being careful with the ball in that dangerous area, 35 meters, in front of their goal. Defenders bmping into each other, when trying to make a play... Kolo Toure was once a very good player. But at the moment, I don't trust him, comanding their defensive line. Up front, they are loaded with talent, but if they will fail to back it up with some team play, Japanese will upset them. Good luck!

Thanks a lot for the reply. I laid off my Greece +0.5 and actually made some money by taking Colombia 3-0. Another questionable call by the ref on the pk against CRica. I mean, it was a foul but there are fouls like that one on every other corner. There was a clear foul on the last corner by Costa Rica but the ref did not call it: the Uruguayan defender was basically hanging on the Costa Rican who was trying to get a header going. I dunno if it is the heat or what but the pace looks pretty sluggish. Well, Greece was horrible anyway. There have been three pretty iffy PKs already: Brazil, Spain and now Uruguay all got calls that would not be given in EPL or UCL. Makes me wonder. And three goals scored in the added time in five games.

[kenz]

Batman vs spiderman
batman +1.5 sets @1.5

Who are they if I may ask

[frugalgambler]

Buffon is not playing today.

[Betfrog]

Who are they if I may ask

this is just me and my bad sence of humor ;D

[kenz]

this is just me and my bad sence of humor ;D

Lopez and Dimitrov?

[JC1186]

I suppose..

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks a lot for the reply. I laid off my Greece +0.5 and actually made some money by taking Colombia 3-0. Another questionable call by the ref on the pk against CRica. I mean, it was a foul but there are fouls like that one on every other corner. There was a clear foul on the last corner by Costa Rica but the ref did not call it: the Uruguayan defender was basically hanging on the Costa Rican who was trying to get a header going. I dunno if it is the heat or what but the pace looks pretty sluggish. Well, Greece was horrible anyway. There have been three pretty iffy PKs already: Brazil, Spain and now Uruguay all got calls that would not be given in EPL or UCL. Makes me wonder. And three goals scored in the added time in five games.

No problem.

Yeah, Greece looked piss poor. You said well. There was no pace. But heat has nothing to do with it. That is the way Greece plays. But, I wouldn't count them off just yet. I believe that because of this performance, value will be available with them in the next game. Early goal was the one which spoiled their plans completely. They cannot play from behind. That is obvious. But, if they keep clean sheet for first 30 minutes or so, then they become comfortable and can play...

I haven't seen that foul for Uruguay's PK. I was watching a basketball game, so I can't really make a comment.

Thanks for Buffon info. Altought I already made a small play on a draw. Both teams would probably be happy with taking 1 point each. And when Italy is satisfied with a point, they usualy get it.

[Betfrog]

Lopez and Dimitrov?

haha yeah

[kenz]

Guys how do you stand soccer?

Dont get me wrong I am 32 and was playing on school team in middle-school, I was a sweeper and used to love soccer but did not play/want to play for 5-6 years.

After the ridiculous pace of tennis soccer is impossible for me to watch unless there is Real Madrid or Bayern of 2012

[kenz]

WTF

I am the biggest jnxer in all sports. Of course the moment I write there is no pace in soccer CostaRica has to score 2 goals in 3 minutes and takes the lead

[fitguy67]

the quality of the discussion on this page is actually very high...and betting-(which is essentially an exercise in applied probability, informed by specific sports knowledge) focused...

miles beyond the endlessly puerile literature on the great NBA-GOAT (aka. LBJ vs. Kobe vs. Jordan vs. "fill in the blank with your favorite super-hero")...which usually exhibits little if any attention to exploitable "edges" in that great Zig-Zag-Zig-Zag-interaction we all try to profit from: namely, the complex interacting chain/web/network of "chicken and egg" entities like...

ZIG=currently-common perceptions about the principals we bet on (usually people, horses and multi-faceted financial/research/ground-support-teams for vehicle-racing)
ZAG= current actualites about it (this one's known only to god, but we all try to model/perceive it)
ZIG=bookie's pricing to exploit that ZIG-ZAG...and finally our
ZAG=our deliberations/executions designed to expoloit the preceding ZIG-ZAG-ZIG

none of this is mentioned in the usual idiot's GOAT-debate, super common with young time-wasing idiots over NBA, while the old time-wasting idiots love to haggle endlessly over boxing...

the commonality of all absolutely-useless time-wasting versions of sports-talk like this is...it is ALL about the sports..."who" could/would do what if confronted with such and such in-game challenge by ______...etc. etc. etc....." and never about how you would bet to exploit the possibility of your model being accurate...no...it's all about the sports...and not about the "applied-probability in an atmosphere of heavy uncertainty" that betting really is

But in the dozen-or-so posts above, i like the spin NguyenImproved (great "play on words" BTW) put on this usually old-hat discussion...first he stirred up some sport-specific knowledge shit with his clearly-fringe evaluation of Fed...then, he put on a clever "how I'd TRY to exploit the proposition that your strong disagreement with me is both common-enough and just outdated-enough to create an exploitable dog-ear that I'm contrarian-enough to not just think about putting money on...but will"...so there

_____________________________

was anything resolved definitively?...no, that never really ever happens in a tv-movie ("eventually all participants reach a consensus") kind of way...but at least here there was some observable value in that the debate itself sharpened the reasoning and presentation skills of each participant, by challenging it...not bad since it was centred on a decidedly shop-worn issue...but there was a novel-enough new spin on it to make it actually worthwhile

altho the tone was testy at times...the level of the ideas and the clarity with which they were presented was solid all around......fascinating really...they generated all the usual HEAT over such a topic ...but also some of that stuff that seldom is generated by...some LIGHT as well...

good work guys

next scene: all hold hands while signing a pledge to respect other posters' inalienable "right to agree/disagree and especially BET as as we see fit"...and singing "kum-ba-ya!"

[Honeybadger44]

Guys how do you stand soccer?

Dont get me wrong I am 32 and was playing on school team in middle-school, I was a sweeper and used to love soccer but did not play/want to play for 5-6 years.

After the ridiculous pace of tennis soccer is impossible for me to watch unless there is Real Madrid or Bayern of 2012

Bro, if your intention was to brag about your football/soccer skills, then you should not reaveal that information (the one, which I put into bold).

ps. Just joking with you

[NguyenImproved]

Yes there seems to be some sharp guys here and informative analysis.


Anyways I bet big but seldomly. (I actually value money)
So I won't be able to contribute as much as other posters.

But when I do have a pick I'll let you know.
Strangely I'm most likely onto a winner when it gets howled down with derision..



Thanks for your kind words. Appreciate it mate!

[kenz]

Bro, if your intention was to brag about your football/soccer skills, then you should not reaveal that information (the one, which I put into bold).

ps. Just joking with you

No my intention was to express I am not an American who bashes soccer

[Hardcoar]

9-19 players?

I see your maths is not great for a sports better. Maybe I can help.
Seeing as he is ranked 4.
That means Only 6 other players need to be better than him to justify my ranking of him being 10th-20th best.

On grass in best of five I'd put: Raonic, Gulbis, Nishikori, Tsonga, Berdych, Wawrinka, Ferrer, Isner
AT LEAST better than him.

We all agree I assume that Murray, Nadal and Djoker would leave him for dust.

Anyway it's good to have you all overvalue him.
As I guess you haven't learnt making money from betting is best done when the majority are wrong.

I love popular opinions based on historical records and not present day facts.


Seeing Fed as a great is like comparing Ancient Greece to the bankrupt nation it is now.

Gulbis and Birdshit you could make a case for, Ferrer and Wawrinka are nibbling at his feet at best. Federror is far more consistent than Both Gulbis and Birdshit though, and you are quite incorrect if you think he doesn't belong in the top then.

[NguyenImproved]

Hey man did you see the end of today's match? Guy didn't even know he won..

His new nick needs to be Forget-erer.


It doesn't matter if those players are OBJECTIVELY better than Fed on grass (and I think they ARE).
The odds you get will almost ALWAYS outstrip their actual chances of success.

Eg. Even if Ferrer is only 40/60 to beat Fed the odds you get will be nowhere near that. People need to stop getting hung up on who's 'better'. I mean this is a sports-BETTING forum. Not a tennis fan forum. Angles need to be found. Otherwise we're just back to discussing comic book scenarios.

Anyways each to their opinion. I'm not here to convince you. Just take it if you can use it and pass on if you disagree.
Betting against weakened "premiums" is an effective strategy but actually still requires the majority of people to believe in the power of that "premium" player as a betting proposition.

So the more people who over-value and support Federer the better for me I guess.

[Honeybadger44]

Lopez +2,5 @1.97 Pinnacle - 3 units
I am bit surprised to see Lopez priced this high, for this match. Overall, Dimitrov is a better player. But, considering how well Lopez played his last two matches, and how confident he is at the moment, I think that the fair price should be smoewhere between 2.05-2.20 for the ML and not 2.75, where it is, right now.
His serve was doing a lot of work for him. In this match, his wide serve, from the AD side, should get him out of troubles in crucial points, because Dimitrov should really struggle to do something against it, with his one handed backhand. Also, I noticed that Grigor was struggling to find the right footing this week. That might be extremly important, because Lopez plays with so much variation, that ability to change directions without problems, is very important.

[Hardcoar]

Hey man did you see the end of today's match? Guy didn't even know he won..

His new nick needs to be Forget-erer.


It doesn't matter if those players are OBJECTIVELY better than Fed on grass (and I think they ARE).
The odds you get will almost ALWAYS outstrip their actual chances of success.

Eg. Even if Ferrer is only 40/60 to beat Fed the odds you get will be nowhere near that. People need to stop getting hung up on who's 'better'. I mean this is a sports-BETTING forum. Not a tennis fan forum. Angles need to be found. Otherwise we're just back to discussing comic book scenarios.

Anyways each to their opinion. I'm not here to convince you. Just take it if you can use it and pass on if you disagree.
Betting against weakened "premiums" is an effective strategy but actually still requires the majority of people to believe in the power of that "premium" player as a betting proposition.

So the more people who over-value and support Federer the better for me I guess.

That I generally agree with. I don't agree that's what you initially said though; You were talking very specifically about objective rank, as far as I could tell. My point is this: What you first said has nothing to do with odds or their perceived value.

[frugalgambler]

Hey man. What do you think about WC tomorrow ? I do not know any of the six teams involved that well, but being the junky I am, I expecting a low-scoring game in ECU-SWI, a bashing by Argentina, and a struggle by France without Riberi vs the super-defensive Honduras. So I am thinking along the lines 1H draw for ECU and HON games, and Argentina -1.5 vs Bosnia. Also, Ana is supposed to cover 5+ games vs the balling BZS, will she do it ?

[Honeybadger44]

Hey man. What do you think about WC tomorrow ? I do not know any of the six teams involved that well, but being the junky I am, I expecting a low-scoring game in ECU-SWI, a bashing by Argentina, and a struggle by France without Riberi vs the super-defensive Honduras. So I am thinking along the lines 1H draw for ECU and HON games, and Argentina -1.5 vs Bosnia. Also, Ana is supposed to cover 5+ games vs the balling BZS, will she do it ?

Speaking about Ivanovic-Zahlavova match, I don't have any strong argument for one side or the another. Line is high enough to bet the dog, I guess, but then again, Ana is playing on a high level as well. If I would be considering bet on Zahlavova, I would ask myself: What will happen, if she starts slow? Or maybe, if she doesn't get so many first servs in, like yesterday? Or, if she keeps it close for some time and then lose few crucial points, which will cost her first set? Is she mentally strong enough to bounce back after that? She seems bit of a lunatic to me. So, I would lean to the anwser - no. You need a strong effort, from the underdog, throughout entire match, to cover such spread for you and I don't believe Zahlavova can/will do that. If she falls behind. She will get down on herself, for every mistake. Her serve will not be as great and she will commit more unforced errors.
That being said, I am not thrilled about that one, but it is your call in the end. I am staying away from that one.

World cup. I am probably making Switzerland my official pick later. They are my "dark horse" of the competition and I think I am getting some nice value with these odds here. Not impressed with Ecuador's squad on paper. Pretty old defense. Their strength seems to be on the wings, but Switzerland has the full back to contain them, on that part of the pitch.Why I like this bet, is that Ecuador is missing Segundo Castillo. Midfielder, not a big name, but does a lot of (dirty) work for them, which is very important in midfield. And I am also hearing that the other central midfieler Noboa, is not at his 100%, speaking of his fitness.
I liked your yesterday thinking about Costa Rica, but I am not sure about Honduras today. Of course, you are always paying a premium price, when taking big name like France, against nobody (Honduras), but I think that France has the team this time, to back that up and they have been playing well lately. They suffered a humiliation in South African republic, 4 years ago, when there was very poor chemistry inside the team. But it seem that coach Deschamps, found out the links, which were causing the rebellion, back then, and excluded them. I am talking primarly about Samir Nasri. Great player, but he is not on the list, probably because of the reason, which I wrote above. France has a great team and I don't see problems for them in this one.
Argentina-Bosnia is an intriguing one. I don't really know, what to think about it. I am afraid that Bosnian coach will decide to defend and that will be mistake, because they doesn't have the squad to pull it off. They have a lot of great players in midfield and attack, while defense seems to be their weakness. That being said, Argentina covering the spread, or the over 2,5 total goals, are the leans for this one. Good luck!

[Honeybadger44]

Sousa ML @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
It seems to me that the odds are wrong, becuse of people perception about Sousa being a clay court specialist. Well, If I can recall it correctly, he made a breakthrough on the tour, with some good results on asian fast hard courts and few indoor tournaments. So, he can really play on fast surfaces. Also, last week caused an upset against Struff in Halle and stole a set from Federer. This is a first grass court tournament for Reister this year. I would bet this one with more units, but I am affraid with Sousa being 1st seed, and being first in the line for lucky loser spot.

Switzerland - 0,25 (AH) @2.07 Pinnacle - 5 units
As I wrote in my previous post, I think highly of this Swiss team. Ecuador has an old defense and some problems with injuries in the midfield.