Smogs English Football Thread

**Smogs** · 08-29-09, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by Vreston

Hello Smogs! 
 
I posted this pick last night in Karayilan's thread: 
 
Nottingham Forest vs. Derby: Over 2.5 @ +105 
 
What do you think? You're the Championship expert! 
 
By the way, when I posted this, it was at 2.05 at bet365 while at the same time it was at 1.85 at bwin.

I'm kicking myself, i was going to bet the over but didn't realise it was an early kick off

Right, having lost an obvious win early in the day i have to make it up with a couple of 3pm winners

2 units - Liverpool -1ah @ 1.875 (to win 2.75 units) PUSH

1.5 Units - Dag N Red @ 5/6 (to win 1.25 Units) WIN

2 Units - Bournemouth @ 5/4 (to win 2.5 Units) WIN

2 Units - Stoke DNB @ 4/6 (to win 1.3 units) WIN

1.5 Units - Crawley Town @ 4/6 (to win 1 unit) LOSS

Big betting weekend but i have looked these over for a while and i like them a lot

**Kimbu** · 08-29-09, 08:46 AM

what does ah mean? at half?

**PortsDave** · 08-29-09, 08:48 AM

Asian Handicap

**Smogs** · 08-29-09, 11:18 AM

A successful day going 3-1-1 up 3.55 Units

Shame Liverpool couldn't have won more convincingly but more annoyingly was the Crawley game as a last minute equaliser cost me another big win. There was massive value in that game and it should have won, just that is the problem when you bet on the Conference - the quality is so bad that players just switch off and let in stupid goals. I was right in picking it though and the line movement proved that.

**Kimbu** · 08-29-09, 11:48 AM

very nice work!

that crawley game was a heartbreaker but on the other side, liverpool came back to save us two units.

**Kimbu** · 08-29-09, 11:48 AM

.

**kengarou** · 08-29-09, 02:16 PM

Hi there , smogs I saw the game of Liverpool today , it is really such a close game , I have seen the game and Pool actually wasted so many chances in order to clear the AH. I thought everything is over when Bolton scored the first goal, but Pool kept fighting back, damn it ain't easy to make comebacks especially in the Reebok Stadium which is a damn tough place to go for the Big Four. Anyway , the result is a Push , I admit I watch the game and don't get nothing at the end , but anyway a Push is still better than losing, I will be looking forward to the Man City and Everton games next.

By the way, the Man U game vs Arsenal is such a thriller, Man U won 2-1 but it was sheer damn hell of a luck for them, wait till you read and hear the news, they are simply so lucky to actually get away with it.

**Vreston** · 08-29-09, 02:24 PM

Nice work today Smogs

In Conference I think that Oxford is worth keeping an eye on. I've been following them from last year and they did not let me down often.
I saw that today the pulled off the away win against Wimbledon. Unfortunately I didn't play it. I'm still in vacation mode for a while and I don't have much time to "study".
Anyway I'll be keeping my eye on them to see how they do these first weeks.

**Smogs** · 08-29-09, 04:23 PM

Good stuff lads, the liverpool result was a good one in the end given the circumstances.

Vreston - good call on the over in the forest game, i would have played it but i missed the cut off sadly.

i am eyeing up Everton and a draw between villa and fulham, hopefully we have a good end to a great weekend

**Smogs** · 08-29-09, 09:01 PM

I am not making any plays for sunday, i have a long history of making money on a saturday and giving it back on a sunday.
If i was to have a bet it would be on everton to win and vill/fulham to draw.

Good luck

**Johnny Hipster** · 08-30-09, 03:58 AM

U were right with the Blackpool pick Smogs! well done!

**Smogs** · 08-30-09, 05:08 AM

Originally posted by Johnny Hipster

U were right with the Blackpool pick Smogs! well done!

**Smogs** · 08-30-09, 06:03 AM

Ok - having capped the Everton game before the weekend and decided Everton would win, then backing out after such a good saturday.....i have decided to bet a unit on Everton -1. This is because i am sure everton will win so the worst that can happen is my money back if that is the case.

1 Unit - Everton -1ah @ +140 (to win 1.4 Units)

**Smogs** · 08-30-09, 10:49 AM

Phew, that was close, just got the push

Sunday - one push = 0 Units won/lost

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 10:11 AM

Having been confident of the win yesterday and scraping a push, i am actually really confident of today's matches and what they can bring profit wise.

I have looked over 2 betting opportunities and both are too good to pass on.

Under 2.5 - 1 UNIT Newc/leicester @ 3/4 (to win 0.75 Units)

Over 2.5 - 1 UNIT Peterborough/C Palace @ evs (to win 1 Unit)

Good luck today guys

**VegasDave** · 08-31-09, 10:13 AM

Good luck today Smogs!

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 10:16 AM

Thanks Dave

2 more weeks and i'll be looking out for your NFL picks - looking forward to those

**VegasDave** · 08-31-09, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Thanks Dave

2 more weeks and i'll be looking out for your NFL picks - looking forward to those

Sounds good. You keep dominating real foots and I'll take on the American variety and we'll kick some ass together in '09

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 11:16 AM

It's a deal, then we spend the profits at the bash next year right? lol. I owe you $20 as well so i think i'll buy us a round of yard long pina colada's

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 04:13 PM

Dam, was unlucky with the Posh game, i thought half an hour would have been plenty of time for another goal.

Oh well, a small loss of 0.25 Units means i am still up 13.65 Units since August 7th

**smitch124** · 08-31-09, 04:31 PM

didn't you have a different game up there initially?

never mind me mixed up

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 05:24 PM

Smitch - if you mean Galatasaray -1.5, yes i did have it up, but i took it down because this thread is English Football only. I saw that Gala won 2-0 also, so it would have been a win but i am adamant about only playing what i know, and i haven't a clue about European Football mainly. Therefore i did not bet it. i lost out this time but overall, not betting stuff i don't know is the way to make real money - or at least save it

**VegasDave** · 08-31-09, 05:27 PM

Smogs, do you have any specific way you like to go about capping games, like certain stats or anything that you look at, or do you just know the teams and their styles well and use that to pick winners?

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by VegasDave

Smogs, do you have any specific way you like to go about capping games, like certain stats or anything that you look at, or do you just know the teams and their styles well and use that to pick winners?

Dave - i know English Football very well, i watch all the highlights programmes from the Premier league all the way down to League 2, and have done this for as long as i can remember.
I never let stats make a pick for me and also, i never make a pick without looking at stats first.

I give certain criteria's very strong consideration including the obvious one's like head to head records, injuries and contrasting home and away form.
I do get technical i some cases such as how a team's setup will play against their opposition. I.e. a team like Villa - who have fast and skillful wingers will play better against a slow and immobile team like Blackburn, yet may struggle to make that impact against another pacey team like Tottenham.

I also look at situational instances such as my Everton pick this weekend, Wigan had already won an away game (something they will not do more than 3 times this season) and Everton had already lost at home ( something they will do no more than 4 times).

It is things like that i look at, i don't believe in trying to second guess the bookies or any of that silly stuff. I simply pick the team who has the best matchup chance against their opposition using the full wealth of betting options given to us on a bookies website: Asian handicap, over/under etc.

i hope that helps

**RoagBettor** · 08-31-09, 07:48 PM

Smogs, keep up the great work. I love your philosophy of sticking with what you know best.

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 09:03 PM

Thanks Roag, it has taken me 3 years to work out that as soon as i diverge from what i know, i start losing money. Now i have my plan, i aim to stick to it through using this thread and hopefully helping other guys on here with my knowledge

**Smogs** · 08-31-09, 09:45 PM

Since we now have a stupid international break (a surprising amount of football fans in England hate int'l week) it will be two weeks till we get back round to League action.
However, i will have my plays out by the middle of the week to try and catch the best lines as the transfer window closes today.
Before capping the games, i like -

Blackburn
Sunderland
Man utd
Southend
Northampton
Crewe
Notts County

With the Championship lines not out yet i'll no doubt be adding a few more to the list of leans. What you will notice though is that in my strategy i pick a bunch of games and then whittle them down to just a handful which i then attach a stake to.
I may only end up with 3 picks for next weekend

**VegasDave** · 08-31-09, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Dave - i know English Football very well, i watch all the highlights programmes from the Premier league all the way down to League 2, and have done this for as long as i can remember.
I never let stats make a pick for me and also, i never make a pick without looking at stats first.

I give certain criteria's very strong consideration including the obvious one's like head to head records, injuries and contrasting home and away form.
I do get technical i some cases such as how a team's setup will play against their opposition. I.e. a team like Villa - who have fast and skillful wingers will play better against a slow and immobile team like Blackburn, yet may struggle to make that impact against another pacey team like Tottenham.

I also look at situational instances such as my Everton pick this weekend, Wigan had already won an away game (something they will not do more than 3 times this season) and Everton had already lost at home ( something they will do no more than 4 times).

It is things like that i look at, i don't believe in trying to second guess the bookies or any of that silly stuff. I simply pick the team who has the best matchup chance against their opposition using the full wealth of betting options given to us on a bookies website: Asian handicap, over/under etc.

i hope that helps

Great info, thanks

**Smogs** · 09-01-09, 09:28 AM

Reeto - after a so so couple of days after saturday's wins, i have decided to plunge into the murky waters of the 'JPT Trophy'. My reasoning for this is i have a mate who supports Rochdale and is pretty clued up with the lower echelons of League football like myself and we agree on a couple of standout picks.
This is a time for value and i believe i have found 2 that offer good value.

Firstly, i have Norwich to beat Brentford and Burton DNB vs Chesterfield
I will have a closer look and then post by 6pm GMT

It's decided -

1 UNIT - Norwich WIN @ 4/5 (to win 0.8 Units)

1 UNIT - Burton DNB @ 1.875 (to win 0.875 Units)

**Johnny Hipster** · 09-01-09, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Reeto - after a so so couple of days after saturday's wins, i have decided to plunge into the murky waters of the 'JPT Trophy'. My reasoning for this is i have a mate who supports Rochdale and is pretty clued up with the lower echelons of League football like myself and we agree on a couple of standout picks.
This is a time for value and i believe i have found 2 that offer good value.

Firstly, i have Norwich to beat Brentford and Burton DNB vs Chesterfield
I will have a closer look and then post by 6pm GMT

It's decided -

1 UNIT - Norwich WIN @ 4/5 (to win 0.8 Units)

1 UNIT - Burton DNB @ 1.875 (to win 0.875 Units)

I will check the scores later today-GL

**TurkzZ** · 09-01-09, 01:46 PM

that yellow is bright, am i the only one that cant read it without highlighting lol, BOL on the plays Smogsy

**Smogs** · 09-01-09, 01:50 PM

I know lol, when i wrote it i though - dam, no one can see that

I was trying to keep the theme of the team colours, just annoying they both play in yellow.

Burton and Norwich lads

**Smogs** · 09-01-09, 02:46 PM

I think i'm starting to overstretch myself with these bets

**Smogs** · 09-01-09, 03:42 PM

1-1 for a small loss of 0.2 of a unit

Now i go into the international break on a good profitable bankroll and after the last couple of mediocre days, hopefully i get back to some good wins

**Smogs** · 09-03-09, 12:26 PM

The play is on - 2 UNITS on Rochdale DNB (To win 1.51 Units)

I should have one or two more for the weekend - this game is on Friday Night