Ste's plays

[stemellor]

Spot on review, good thing seeing you on the same side

Thanks. 100% behind both of these tonight. Strange, I looked past both games initially. As soon as you pointed them out they both jumped out as must play value picks.

[Gamblan]

Was thinking the same for the Liberec game

[O]

I'm struggling mate. The MLS game cashed overnight for me, so it might be my only play today. Had a strong lean on Rosenborg -1. Think I'm probably going to pass though as Molde are better than their current form suggests, which is always dangerous. I'm going to keep looking though.

Great call laying off Rosenborg. Had I seen you post I would have laid off as well but didn't and it just about killed my RR. Oh well. GL.

[stemellor]

Thanks to John for the tips here. I hope you don't mind me writing these up, please add anything you think is relevant:

Norway - Tippeligaen (2 games)
Aaelesund vs Odd:
This is the game with the most value as I have Aaelesund with around a 65% chance of winning tonight.
Aaelesund have won 3 and drawn 2 of their home games. They come off a huge 7-1 victory in the last hime game against Lillestrom and also have a very creditable draw 2-2 with Rosenborg, who I think will win the league this year.
Odd have lost all their away games so far this season.

Taken Aaelesund -0.75 for 1u on Pinny @ 2.03.

Tromso vs Brann
This pick also has some value as I rate a Tromso win at somewhere around the 65% mark.
Tromso have won 4 and lost 1 at home this season. The last home game was a 5-0 win over Sarpsborg.
Brann have lost all their away games this season.
Tromso have also won the last 2 head 2 head matches between these 2 teams.

Taken Tromso -1 for 1u @ 1.9 on Bet365.

Excellent day, all 3 cashed. Many thanks to John and ExeRok for some excellent tips.

Overall record now: 32-28-4. +11.8u

[Johndrama]

I coudn't possible take credit for the norvegian plays, but I'm glad that everyone cashed. Looking forward for the liberec play, I like it.

[O]

I coudn't possible take credit for the norvegian plays, but I'm glad that everyone cashed. Looking forward for the liberec play, I like it.

Great plays..... keep up the good work boys. Still didn't see the Rosenborg game going 0-0 after the beatings they have given out the last couple at home.... especially to a lesser team (to Ste's point, better form team than they appear).

[stemellor]

Great plays..... keep up the good work boys. Still didn't see the Rosenborg game going 0-0 after the beatings they have given out the last couple at home.... especially to a lesser team (to Ste's point, better form team than they appear).

Thanks O. Tbh, I didn't really either, particularly when Molde went down to 10. Molde are champions though, so it's hard to bet against them in the early season as they are bound to hit form soon.

[Akatana]

Well done on Liberec, Nice job. Keep em coming

[swordsandtequila]

I'm on holiday from tomorrow, so unlikely I'll have any more plays until Sunday, after these 2.

Czech Gambrinus League - Liberec vs Teplice:

I think this offers excellent value. I'm having to play this early, so team news is not available, so just playing this small. Liberec have won 8 of their last 9 home games, with their only loss against league leaders Viktoria Plzen. Liberec need a win to keep in the last european place. Teplice in fairness have been playing well recently, winning their last 2 games, which has taken them nicely clear of the relegation zone. I think Liberec at home should be too strong and should record a 2-0 victory. The odds below therefore represent excellent value:

Taken Liberec -1 for 1u @ 2.23 on Pinny.

Nice call, thank you very much

[stemellor]

I'm on holiday from tomorrow, so unlikely I'll have any more plays until Sunday, after these 2.

Czech Gambrinus League - Liberec vs Teplice:

I think this offers excellent value. I'm having to play this early, so team news is not available, so just playing this small. Liberec have won 8 of their last 9 home games, with their only loss against league leaders Viktoria Plzen. Liberec need a win to keep in the last european place. Teplice in fairness have been playing well recently, winning their last 2 games, which has taken them nicely clear of the relegation zone. I think Liberec at home should be too strong and should record a 2-0 victory. The odds below therefore represent excellent value:

Taken Liberec -1 for 1u @ 2.23 on Pinny.

UEFA Champions League - Bayern vs Dortmund:

I've had a feeling this might be Dortmund's cup since that incredible finish against Malaga. Bayern are the better team are are deserved favourites, but the value favours Dortmund here, from a betting perspective. Dortmund didn't have a good result last time out, which has pushed the odds towards Bayern a little more. That was a meaningless game and not too much should be read into that result as Dortmund relaxed with this game in mind when they were winning. I would be playing this bigger, but this is Bayern's second final in 2 years and I also have a hard time seeing them lose 2 in a row!
With these odds though, Dortmund are the value pick, so this is the way I'm going to play a small stake.

Taken Dortmund ML for 0.25u @ 4.96 on Pinny.

Went 1-1 on these picks, +1u.

Overall record now 33-29-4
+12.8u

[KATCHASE]

Hope you had a nice holiday. Good to see you back.

[stemellor]

Hope you had a nice holiday. Good to see you back.

Thanks. A little sunburnt, but glad to be back. Didn't watch any sports for nearly a week, so got some catching up to do!

Just 1 pick today so far.

Finland - Inter Turku vs JJK
In some ways I can understand the odds here. Inter have won 2, drawn 2 at home this season. However, JJK have only managed 1 draw on their travels this season and lost the rest. Inter are a far stronger team than this and their 2 draws have been against Helsinki and Vps, who are top of the league. Inter are a top 2 team and when you compare head2head results (in Turku, Inter have won 6, lost 1) this becomes a real value play.

Taken Inter Turku ML @ 1.9 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

[stemellor]

Finland - Inter Turku vs JJK
In some ways I can understand the odds here. Inter have won 2, drawn 2 at home this season. However, JJK have only managed 1 draw on their travels this season and lost the rest. Inter are a far stronger team than this and their 2 draws have been against Helsinki and Vps, who are top of the league. Inter are a top 2 team and when you compare head2head results (in Turku, Inter have won 6, lost 1) this becomes a real value play.

Taken Inter Turku ML @ 1.9 on Bet365. Risking to win 2u.

Good win for Inter today 3-1.

Overall record now 34-29-4. +14.8u

One pick for tomorrow so far:

England Championship Playoff - Crystal Palace vs Watford:
Watford are the clear favourites in this game. Watford finished third and were unlucky not to be promoted automatically, Crystal Palace just scraped into the playoffs after a bad end to the season.

Watford beat Leicester impressively in the last round; Palace managed to beat rivals Brighton without top scorer Glenn Murray.

Watford on thir day can beat anybody, but I don't think they are necessarily a team. They are mainly made up of loan players and there is a question mark over how much the players want this as they are unlikely to still be at Watford next year.

Crystal Palace showed real resilience against Brighton and their manager Ian Holloway has been here with Blackpool and got them promoted.

Taken Crystal Palace to be promoted @ 2.3 on Pinny. 1u risk.

[stemellor]

England Championship Playoff - Crystal Palace vs Watford:
Watford are the clear favourites in this game. Watford finished third and were unlucky not to be promoted automatically, Crystal Palace just scraped into the playoffs after a bad end to the season.

Watford beat Leicester impressively in the last round; Palace managed to beat rivals Brighton without top scorer Glenn Murray.

Watford on thir day can beat anybody, but I don't think they are necessarily a team. They are mainly made up of loan players and there is a question mark over how much the players want this as they are unlikely to still be at Watford next year.

Crystal Palace showed real resilience against Brighton and their manager Ian Holloway has been here with Blackpool and got them promoted.

Taken Crystal Palace to be promoted @ 2.3 on Pinny. 1u risk.

Also going to play tomorrow:

Sweden Superettan - Assyriska vs Landskrona
Assyriska have won 3 of their 4 home games this season by 3 goals. The other game was against second placed Orebro, which was a draw.
Landskrona have lost 2 and drawn their 3 away games this season.
H2H between the 2 teams is 6-3 at Assyriska.

Taken Assyriska -1 @ 2.13 on Pinny, risking 1u.

Also worth noting here is that 15 of the 17 matches between the 2 sides have gone over 2.5 goals. Odds on O2.5 goals is currently trading around even.

[stemellor]

Great result for Palace today. Definitely the best team won on the day.
Still can't quite believe the Assyriska result (lost 3-0). The over hit again between these 2 teams and I really should have been playing this as well. +0.3u today, so not too bad.

Overall record 35-30-4. +15.1u

[stemellor]

29 May

Don't think there will be any plays tomorrow. Going to go straight to Wednesday:

Finland - Honka vs Lahti:
Honka in good form at home this season, winning 3 of 4. Their only defeat was to Helsinki. Lahti have lost 4 of the last 5 games and are second bottom. Honka have won 3 out of the last 4 H2H meetings at home. Lahti are better than their current form though, so will just play 1 unit.

The last 5 games at Honka have gone over 2.5 goals along with Lahti's last 2. All of the last 8 H2H matches have also gone over.

Taken Honka -0.5 @ 1.943 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.
Over 2.5 @ 2.05 on Pinny. 1u risk.

Finland - JJK vs HJK:

Champions vs bottom of the league. JJK without a win and only 3 points this season. HJK have won 75% of away games.
HJK have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in the league and of these wins the last 5 have been by 2 or more goals.

Taken HJK - 0.75 @ 1.926 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[stemellor]

Don't think there will be any plays tomorrow. Going to go straight to Wednesday:

Finland - Honka vs Lahti:
Honka in good form at home this season, winning 3 of 4. Their only defeat was to Helsinki. Lahti have lost 4 of the last 5 games and are second bottom. Honka have won 3 out of the last 4 H2H meetings at home. Lahti are better than their current form though, so will just play 1 unit.

The last 5 games at Honka have gone over 2.5 goals along with Lahti's last 2. All of the last 8 H2H matches have also gone over.

Taken Honka -0.5 @ 1.943 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.
Over 2.5 @ 2.05 on Pinny. 1u risk.

Finland - JJK vs HJK:

Champions vs bottom of the league. JJK without a win and only 3 points this season. HJK have won 75% of away games.
HJK have won 7 of the last 8 meetings in the league and of these wins the last 5 have been by 2 or more goals.

Taken HJK - 0.75 @ 1.926 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

Going on value here as well as 'Gut feel.'

Romania - Pandurii vs Astra:

Battle for the last remaining european spot. Astra are 3 points behind Pandurii, but with a better goal difference. If they win, they take the spot. Pandurii just about won at the weekend, with Astra by all accounts very unlucky to draw. A few dodgy calls by the officials and these things tend to even themselves out. I wonder whether Astra might get a few of the calls tonight?

Astra have only lost once in the last 8 and have won the last 3 H2Hs between these 2 clubs. Astra know they need to win, whereas Pandurii know they only need a draw. The latter can be a dangerous mindset to have and I like the fact that Astra need to win here.

Anyway, I have all 3 outcomes tonight at around the same probability of happening, so Astra are the value play and therefore the pick tonight.

Taken Astra +0.25 @1.99 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[onemoregoal]

Nice comeback in Finland, Honka were looking dead and HJK played for your bet

[burkestar]

top shelf picks on the finland games, tailed both plus parlayed Honka into HJK -1, thought i'd need a miracle to hit that 1 at half-time and whatta-ya-know got it, thank god honka know how to take a free kick

[Johndrama]

Bravo, nice hits, impressive win with that red card.

[stemellor]

Cheers guys. Yeah, thought the over was going to hit once the red card came. Just need Astra to play ball now

[stemellor]

Cheers guys. Yeah, thought the over was going to hit once the red card came. Just need Astra to play ball now

And they did! Half win in the last match of the day. +1.5u today.

Overall record: 37.5-31-4.5. +16.6u

[stemellor]

30 May

One definite play tomorrow and maybe another in the Norwegian Cup.

Poland - GKS Belchatow vs Jagellona Bialystok:
This looks great value. Belchatow desperately need a win to keep their hopes alive of staying in the league. Bialystok are already confirmed safe.

Belchatow have won 4 of their last 5 matches as they make a determined effort to avoid relegation. Bialystok in contrast have lost their last 5 games as they cruise to the end of the season.

Belchatow have an excellent H2H record between the 2 clubs at home, winning 6 and drawing 2 of their 8 meetings.

Taken Belchatow ML @ 1.7 on Betway. Risking 3u.

[stemellor]

2 June

Well in advance this pick, but the odds dropped literally as I was doing my research, so might be best to get the price now if you like the angle.

Finland - MYPA vs JJK:
The JJK fade has worked in the last couple of games as they seem to be in a real hole. MYPA are a good team at home and have won 4 out of 5 this season, including an excellent 3-0 win against second place VPS. They have also beaten Honka and Inter Turku this season, so have a good record against the better teams in the league.

JJK have lost their last 4 games away from home and are struggling at the bottom of the league.

MYPA will have their centre back Sesay suspended for this game. I'm hoping they won't miss him too much in this game. MYPA have the league's top scorer Sihlova, who is in great form to hopefully supply the goals here.

Taken MYPA ML @1.83 on Bet365. Risking to win 1u.

[stemellor]

1 June

Sorry, I've done this a bit backwards with the 2 June play. This is for Saturday.

Sweden Superettan - Varberg vs Varnamo:

Varberg are a very strong team at hime, winning 4 of the 5 games this season. Their only loss was to 3rd place GIF.
Varberg are welcoming back the league's top scorer Altemark-Vanneryr after suspension. He has 9 goals so far and obviously very important to the team.

Varnamo are bottom of the league, losing 3 of the 5 games away from home.

Taken Varberg -0.75 @ 1.980 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

There will be another play to add for Saturday. I'm just awaiting the handicap lines to come out, but almost certainly this will be a maximum unit play for me.

[pudlo]

One definite play tomorrow and maybe another in the Norwegian Cup.

Poland - GKS Belchatow vs Jagellona Bialystok:
This looks great value. Belchatow desperately need a win to keep their hopes alive of staying in the league. Bialystok are already confirmed safe.

Belchatow have won 4 of their last 5 matches as they make a determined effort to avoid relegation. Bialystok in contrast have lost their last 5 games as they cruise to the end of the season.

Belchatow have an excellent H2H record between the 2 clubs at home, winning 6 and drawing 2 of their 8 meetings.

Taken Belchatow ML @ 1.7 on Betway. Risking 3u.

Jagiellonia is not safe yet, it needs 1 more point. They left for Belchatow a day earlier then usually to have extra time before the game to focus. As far as the 5 loses in a row, 3 were against Lech( close game deserved a draw), Legia(got red in first 10 min) and Slask all top 5 teams. The other 2 loses look bad and put the team in difficult spot. Six weeks ago Jagiellonia were fighting for 3 place so today is not a lock. To me they seem desperate and ready to play again so I will take
Jagiellonia +1 @ 1.75 ( pinnacle)

[Akatana]

Jagiellonia is not safe yet, it needs 1 more point. They left for Belchatow a day earlier then usually to have extra time before the game to focus. As far as the 5 loses in a row, 3 were against Lech( close game deserved a draw), Legia(got red in first 10 min) and Slask all top 5 teams. The other 2 loses look bad and put the team in difficult spot. Six weeks ago Jagiellonia were fighting for 3 place so today is not a lock. To me they seem desperate and ready to play again so I will take
Jagiellonia +1 @ 1.75 ( pinnacle)

Interesting....hmmmmmmmmm

[onemoregoal]

Jagiellonia is not safe yet, it needs 1 more point. They left for Belchatow a day earlier then usually to have extra time before the game to focus. As far as the 5 loses in a row, 3 were against Lech( close game deserved a draw), Legia(got red in first 10 min) and Slask all top 5 teams. The other 2 loses look bad and put the team in difficult spot. Six weeks ago Jagiellonia were fighting for 3 place so today is not a lock. To me they seem desperate and ready to play again so I will take
Jagiellonia +1 @ 1.75 ( pinnacle)

Damn, I didnt notice that either. I dont play this league... looking at fixtures though, Ruch probably wont catch Jagillonia as they Ruch host Legia today and last game Jagillonia host Ruch....
GKS Belhatow also travel to Piast last game, who are fighting for a euro spot - so unlikely they will catch Jagi, either.
Then theres a another couple of teams also who would need to catch Jagi if they are to be relegated..
But, yeah its not a certainty that Jag are relegated (which I missed) but odds wise it must be a long shot..

[stemellor]

Jagiellonia is not safe yet, it needs 1 more point. They left for Belchatow a day earlier then usually to have extra time before the game to focus. As far as the 5 loses in a row, 3 were against Lech( close game deserved a draw), Legia(got red in first 10 min) and Slask all top 5 teams. The other 2 loses look bad and put the team in difficult spot. Six weeks ago Jagiellonia were fighting for 3 place so today is not a lock. To me they seem desperate and ready to play again so I will take
Jagiellonia +1 @ 1.75 ( pinnacle)

Yep, just checked again and you're right. Not technically safe. It doesn't change the pick for me, but it does change the confidence level and the unit play (would have played this at 1u if I had realised). Have to keep my fingers crossed on this one now

[Pan43]

It's awesome when you wait at livescore @90+ and your team allows a goal, penetrating shitheads and they had one left substitution to give to waste time.

[stemellor]

One definite play tomorrow and maybe another in the Norwegian Cup.

Poland - GKS Belchatow vs Jagellona Bialystok:
This looks great value. Belchatow desperately need a win to keep their hopes alive of staying in the league. Bialystok are already confirmed safe.

Belchatow have won 4 of their last 5 matches as they make a determined effort to avoid relegation. Bialystok in contrast have lost their last 5 games as they cruise to the end of the season.

Belchatow have an excellent H2H record between the 2 clubs at home, winning 6 and drawing 2 of their 8 meetings.

Taken Belchatow ML @ 1.7 on Betway. Risking 3u.

Urgh, worst way to lose with an injury time goal. Works both ways though.

Overall record now 37.5-32-4.5. +13.6u.

[andyrocha90]

Ah moose. Hate those

[KATCHASE]

Urgh, worst way to lose with an injury time goal. Works both ways though.

Agreed. Get 'em tomorrow Ste. Nice solid record you have going there.

[stemellor]

Sorry, I've done this a bit backwards with the 2 June play. This is for Saturday.

Sweden Superettan - Varberg vs Varnamo:

Varberg are a very strong team at hime, winning 4 of the 5 games this season. Their only loss was to 3rd place GIF.
Varberg are welcoming back the league's top scorer Altemark-Vanneryr after suspension. He has 9 goals so far and obviously very important to the team.

Varnamo are bottom of the league, losing 3 of the 5 games away from home.

Taken Varberg -0.75 @ 1.980 on Pinny. Risking to win 2u.

There will be another play to add for Saturday. I'm just awaiting the handicap lines to come out, but almost certainly this will be a maximum unit play for me.

Sweden - Helsingborg vs Atvidaberg
Malmo ended Helsingborg's run of 6 victories on Wednesday. Always likely to be a draw though as it's a derby game and Bedoya was suspended. Bedoya is back for this game though.
Atvidaberg have an okay away record, but have only played Kalmar of note, which ended in a draw. The other results away have been bottom of the table teams.

Of note between the 2 sides is that Helsingborg have won the last 4 matches and 3 of those victories have been 3-0. I was hoping for a -1 line on this game for real value and got it.

Taken Helsingborg -1 @ 1.85 on Bet365. Risking 2u.

[stemellor]

Adding a play tonight

Argentina - Quilmes vs Racing
I originally passed on this play as it didn't represent any value. Sure, Quilmes are in decent form in the Clausura, but this seemed far too skinny odds on them.
Looking into it further though, Quilmes are actually just outside the relegation zone, with Independiente just below them. This isn't initially apparent as relegation in Argentina is an average of the last 3 season's results.

Quilmes are currently 7th in the Clausura, but 17th in the average of the last 3 seasons. What makes this even more interesting is that Quilmes' opponents tonight are the bitter local rivals of Independiente. Racing's fans are demanding that Racing players throw tonight's game to get their rivals relegated, with threats being issued etc. Motivationally, Quilmes have everything to play for, with Racing at best nothing to play for. It's unlikely that a Racing player is going to play a blinder with all that's going on.

I had to reign myself in on this play as nothing is certain, but decided to break my 3u max for this bet only.

Taken Quilmes ML @ 1.575 on Pinny for 5u.