Ste's plays

[stemellor]

17 May

If you've been following my picks this one should be no surprise:

Switzerland Challenge League - Wil vs Aarau:
Aarau have a 5 point lead over Bellinzona with 4 to play. Aarau have a a good away record and have won the last 3 against Wil, including a 3-0 win in the corresponding fixture early in the season. Wil are an okay team, but don't really have anything to play for here. Bellinzona are winning regularly as well, so Aarau need to keep winning to get promoted. I have Aarau with around a 65% chance of winning, so these odds look excellent to me.

Taking Aarau -0.5 @ 1.826 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u as this is an away game at a decent opponent. It looks like the line started at evens, so taking this now in case the line drops further.

[onemoregoal]

Aarau are bossing anyway... but im not totally sure, i dont think Bellinzona can be promoted anyway. They were fined or some shit, i think they appealed, i cant remember but at one point it was looking like the club would be dissolved.
cant remember where i read it...

[stemellor]

Aarau are bossing anyway... but im not totally sure, i dont think Bellinzona can be promoted anyway. They were fined or some shit, i think they appealed, i cant remember but at one point it was looking like the club would be dissolved.
cant remember where i read it...

Cool. Thanks for the info. Useful to know.

[stemellor]

I've got this one in nice and early as the odds might drop here. Also awaiting an asian handicap on one of the matches, so possible 2 plays tomorrow.

Denmark - Esbjerg vs OB:

Esbjerg are in great form at home winning 7 of the last 8 league matches. They have just won the Danish cup and beat the league leaders Copenhagen 2-0 away in the last match. OB have lost 4 of their last 5 away games and have actually lost all of their last 5 games home and away in the league.

Head 2 head records are very even, but the home have won the last 3 meetings between the sides. Last game in Esbjerg finished 3-0 to the home team.

I can't find any news about anyone being out for Esbjerg, so I'm taking:

Esbjerg -0.5 for 3u @ 1.925 on Bet365. If you have a Betnordic account there are slightly better odds on that site.

The other line I was waiting for has come in and is better than I was expecting:

Lativia- Skonto Riga vs Jelgava:

I have this as 3-0 or 4-0 to Skonto. Skonto have a very attack minded team this year and have made a really good start to the season, in general, scoring lots of goals. This is apparently the first time they will play on their grass pitch this year, which should help their attack. Jelgava did pick up a win in their last match, but against the worst team in the league, but have lost all away matches this season. With Skonto picking such an attack minded team, I am happy to take a reasonably large handicap on them.

Skonto -2 @ 1.75 on Bet365. Risking 2u to win 1.5u.

Parlay - Moldova:
Just for a bit of fun today playing Sheriff Tiraspol and Rapid Chisinau in a parlay. Risking to win 0.1u.

[stemellor]

18 May

Getting a few picks in nice and early:

Romania - Pandurii vs Brasov:
Normal scenario at this time of the year, Pandurii need points to qualify for Europe and Brasov with nothing but pride to play for.
Pandurii have won 5 of their last 6 at home and 4 of these games have been by 2 goals or more.
Brasov have lost 3 of their last 6 away. More importantly, they have lost by at least 2 goals to teams of a similar standard to Pandurii in these games (Petrolul and Astra).

Taking Pandurii -1 @ 1.794 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

[Akatana]

Getting a few picks in nice and early:

Romania - Pandurii vs Brasov:
Normal scenario at this time of the year, Pandurii need points to qualify for Europe and Brasov with nothing but pride to play for.
Pandurii have won 5 of their last 6 at home and 4 of these games have been by 2 goals or more.
Brasov have lost 3 of their last 6 away. More importantly, they have lost by at least 2 goals to teams of a similar standard to Pandurii in these games (Petrolul and Astra).

Taking Pandurii -1 @ 1.794 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

Will be tailing pandurii 100% cheers. bol

[Akatana]

I want to take Esbjerg ML

[kosti]

If we're gonna lose the Skonto game I rather it be like that then a meaningless injury time goal by Jelgava. No idea wtf happened here, clearly the superior team. I backed them at +200 to win at Daugavspil on the weekend (best value line I've seen in a long time) and they crushed 4-1. Oh well, on to the next one.

[stemellor]

The other line I was waiting for has come in and is better than I was expecting:

Lativia- Skonto Riga vs Jelgava:

I have this as 3-0 or 4-0 to Skonto. Skonto have a very attack minded team this year and have made a really good start to the season, in general, scoring lots of goals. This is apparently the first time they will play on their grass pitch this year, which should help their attack. Jelgava did pick up a win in their last match, but against the worst team in the league, but have lost all away matches this season. With Skonto picking such an attack minded team, I am happy to take a reasonably large handicap on them.

Skonto -2 @ 1.75 on Bet365. Risking 2u to win 1.5u.

Parlay - Moldova:
Just for a bit of fun today playing Sheriff Tiraspol and Rapid Chisinau in a parlay. Risking to win 0.1u.

No idea what happened to Skonto Riga against 10 man Jelgava. They dominated the game but had no cutting edge. It appeared they struggled with the surface. Bit of a freak result, so move on.

Esbjerg - exactly what was required. I watched the second half, great entertainment!

Up 0.8 units today.

Overall record: 26-20.5-2.5. +20.2u

[Johndrama]

Don't know why I was so scared about the esbjerg pick, really smelled like a trap, good thing you all taught the books a lesson

[stemellor]

Don't know why I was so scared about the esbjerg pick, really smelled like a trap, good thing you all taught the books a lesson

I know, didn't want to try and talk you into it though just in case. Very similar to the Helsingborgs vs Hacken pick in the end.

[stemellor]

If you've been following my picks this one should be no surprise:

Switzerland Challenge League - Wil vs Aarau:
Aarau have a 5 point lead over Bellinzona with 4 to play. Aarau have a a good away record and have won the last 3 against Wil, including a 3-0 win in the corresponding fixture early in the season. Wil are an okay team, but don't really have anything to play for here. Bellinzona are winning regularly as well, so Aarau need to keep winning to get promoted. I have Aarau with around a 65% chance of winning, so these odds look excellent to me.

Taking Aarau -0.5 @ 1.826 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u as this is an away game at a decent opponent. It looks like the line started at evens, so taking this now in case the line drops further.

Adding another pick for tomorrow
Denmark 1st Division - Koge vs Viborg:
Viborg are currently second in the league and 1 point behind, with a game in hand and 2 to play. Viborg have an okay away record, winning 40% and drawing 40%. Viborg have won the last 3 games, including away to Vestsaelland, who are top. Vestsaelland drew today, which means a win will take Viborg top with 1 match to play.
Koge have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last home games. They are safe in mid table and have little to play for.

Taken Viborg DNB @ 1.806 on Pinny for my max bet of 3u. I think this is fantastic value as I have them at around these odds for a straight win.

Spain Copa Del Reyes:

Wasn't intending on playing this, but the odds look too good.

Taken Real for 3u @ 1.826 on Pinny AH -0.75

[andyrocha90]

Aarau cashes again. thanks ste

[Smoove]

Ha, had no idea that you had already posted Aarau

[stemellor]

Adding another pick for tomorrow
Denmark 1st Division - Koge vs Viborg:
Viborg are currently second in the league and 1 point behind, with a game in hand and 2 to play. Viborg have an okay away record, winning 40% and drawing 40%. Viborg have won the last 3 games, including away to Vestsaelland, who are top. Vestsaelland drew today, which means a win will take Viborg top with 1 match to play.
Koge have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last home games. They are safe in mid table and have little to play for.

Taken Viborg DNB @ 1.806 on Pinny for my max bet of 3u. I think this is fantastic value as I have them at around these odds for a straight win.

Spain Copa Del Reyes:

Wasn't intending on playing this, but the odds look too good.

Taken Real for 3u @ 1.826 on Pinny AH -0.75

Shouldn't have played Real, didn't feel it and paid the price.
Genuinely gutted about the Viborg pick, this happens maybe 2 out of 10 times.
Aarau did just enough.
Down 5u today.

Overall record now 27-22.5-2.5. +15.2u

[stemellor]

Getting a few picks in nice and early:

Romania - Pandurii vs Brasov:
Normal scenario at this time of the year, Pandurii need points to qualify for Europe and Brasov with nothing but pride to play for.
Pandurii have won 5 of their last 6 at home and 4 of these games have been by 2 goals or more.
Brasov have lost 3 of their last 6 away. More importantly, they have lost by at least 2 goals to teams of a similar standard to Pandurii in these games (Petrolul and Astra).

Taking Pandurii -1 @ 1.794 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

Hopefully tomorrow is a better day. One more pick to add here:
Japan J League: Omiya Ardija vs Shonan Bellmare

Ardija are the only real value pick I can find in the J League this weekend. Shonan won their last game, but still have lost 100% away from home. Ardija lost last week and mid week in the cup. Think this is a perfect game to get back on track though. Odds represent good value, regardless of the outcome, so going to play 1u.

Taken Ardija -1 @ 1.925 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

[stemellor]

Getting a few picks in nice and early:


Romania - Pandurii vs Brasov:
Normal scenario at this time of the year, Pandurii need points to qualify for Europe and Brasov with nothing but pride to play for.
Pandurii have won 5 of their last 6 at home and 4 of these games have been by 2 goals or more.
Brasov have lost 3 of their last 6 away. More importantly, they have lost by at least 2 goals to teams of a similar standard to Pandurii in these games (Petrolul and Astra).


Taking Pandurii -1 @ 1.794 on Pinny. Risking 2u.

Hopefully tomorrow is a better day. One more pick to add here:
Japan J League: Omiya Ardija vs Shonan Bellmare

Ardija are the only real value pick I can find in the J League this weekend. Shonan won their last game, but still have lost 100% away from home. Ardija lost last week and mid week in the cup. Think this is a perfect game to get back on track though. Odds represent good value, regardless of the outcome, so going to play 1u.

Taken Ardija -1 @ 1.925 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

I should have at least 1 more pick after this. Bet365 has a juicy line on the game, so waiting for Pinny.

Poland - Legia vs Poznan:
Big game! Will decide the title. Both great teams in this division. Poznan seem to be playing slightly better football at present. Poznan also have an unreal away record (won over 90%), but Legia also have a very good home record. This pick definitely stands a chance, but is a value play as opposed to a dead cert. Legia's odds look far too skinny here, so Poznan are the play. I give Poznan and Legia c.33% chance each of winning the match on recent form.

Also, just found out that Legia are missing their best striker Ljuboja.

Taken Poznan @ 1.962 on Pinny. Risking 2u on AH +0.25.

[stemellor]

Last pick of the day for me

Croatia - Cibalia vs Inter Zapresic:
Should be a tight relegation battle. Zapresic have won their last 3 games and in good form. I give Cibalia c.30% chance of winning this game based on recent form and H2H. Odds are dropping, but still represent good value here.

Taken Zapresic +0.5 @ 1.781 on Pinny. Risking to win 1u.

BoL to everyone with your picks today.

[Vaughany]

Ljuboja hasnt played in a while has he? They have plenty of depth. I think ot will be a draw

[stemellor]

Ljuboja hasnt played in a while has he? They have plenty of depth. I think ot will be a draw

He's missed 2 games Vaughany. Won 1, lost 1 without him. I think a draw as well mate, at least I hope so.

[stemellor]

Bad day so far, but found another pick just as it went in-play.

Spain Segunda Division - Ponferradina vs Numancia:

Taken Ponferradina @ 2.3 on Pinny -0.5 for 2u. Hopefully I'll have a bit more luck with this one. Ponferradina need a victory to keep up a push for a promotion playoff place and have been in decent form at home. Numancia haven't won away in a long time, but have secured a number of draws.

[onemoregoal]

Brasov fukked us good

[stemellor]

Awful run at the moment, not a single winner today. Apart from the Real match yesterday I would play all the picks again in the same way. Hopefully my luck will change tomorrow. Down 7.3u today.

Overall record now 27-26.5-3.5. +7.9u

[Johndrama]

Yeap brutal day for both of us. We could share a grave for tonight if you want

[KATCHASE]

Keep your head up Ste...You've had way more good runs than bad & it's the long term that counts! Better luck tomorrow.

[stemellor]

Cheers guys. My aim at absolute best was to average 0.5 units a day. If I average this over the long term I will be delighted. I was up around 1 unit a day since the thread started, so it was inevitable a bad run was around the corner. I just hope it's over now. Still averaging around 0.5 units a day, so really happy with how things are going. Have a couple of picks I'm going to write up now for today.

[stemellor]

19 May

England - League 1 playoff. Brentford vs Yeovil:
This has value written all over it. After what Brentford went through at Doncaster on the final day of the season they have shown amazing resilience to get this far. However, Yeovil have been the surprise package this year and have also got great team spirit. In my opinion, this is far more like a coin toss outcome than the books have it. It's also worth noting that Yeovil have won the last 3 matches between these 2 teams. If it goes to extra time, I think Brentford take the game. I hope Yeovil can get in done in regular time.

Taken Yeovil DNB @ 2.55 for 1u on Pinny.

USA MLS - DC United vs SKC:
ExeRok beat me to the write up on this game. For further details see his excellent MLS thread. I agree with everything he has written there.

Taken SKC -0.25 @ 2.04 for 3u on Pinny.

Argentina:
Independiente vs San Martin San Juan

Independiente have been playing better football than the visitors recently. San Martin have a long way to travel to this game and have only won 1 game away since May 2012. I don't entirely trust Independiente to win here though as the visitors do get a lot of draws.

Taken Independiente DNB for 3u @ 1.5 on Pinny.

Santa Fe vs River Plate

It's a complicated relegation process in Argentina, but from my understanding Santa Fe are all but doomed. River therefore have a lot more motivation for this game and the line gives really good value here.

Taken River Plate -0.5 @ 2.01 on Pinny for 1u.

[Akatana]

Beautiful Value pick for Yeovil. well done. I tailed it

[stemellor]

20 May

USA MLS - Chivas vs Real Salt Lake:
Tailing this play from ExeRok. I have RSL with around a 50% chance of winning this game, so the line holds good value.

Taken RSL ML @ 2.24 on Pinny for 1u.

[stemellor]

England - League 1 playoff. Brentford vs Yeovil:
This has value written all over it. After what Brentford went through at Doncaster on the final day of the season they have shown amazing resilience to get this far. However, Yeovil have been the surprise package this year and have also got great team spirit. In my opinion, this is far more like a coin toss outcome than the books have it. It's also worth noting that Yeovil have won the last 3 matches between these 2 teams. If it goes to extra time, I think Brentford take the game. I hope Yeovil can get in done in regular time.

Taken Yeovil DNB @ 2.55 for 1u on Pinny.

USA MLS - DC United vs SKC:
ExeRok beat me to the write up on this game. For further details see his excellent MLS thread. I agree with everything he has written there.

Taken SKC -0.25 @ 2.04 for 3u on Pinny.

Argentina:
Independiente vs San Martin San Juan

Independiente have been playing better football than the visitors recently. San Martin have a long way to travel to this game and have only won 1 game away since May 2012. I don't entirely trust Independiente to win here though as the visitors do get a lot of draws.

Taken Independiente DNB for 3u @ 1.5 on Pinny.

Santa Fe vs River Plate

It's a complicated relegation process in Argentina, but from my understanding Santa Fe are all but doomed. River therefore have a lot more motivation for this game and the line gives really good value here.

Taken River Plate -0.5 @ 2.01 on Pinny for 1u.

Better day today with a profit. 2 wins with Yeovil and Independiente, a loss with River Plate drawing and a half loss again with SKC drawing.

Overall record now 29-28-4. +8.5u

[onemoregoal]

Anything for monday?

[stemellor]

Anything for monday?

I'm struggling mate. The MLS game cashed overnight for me, so it might be my only play today. Had a strong lean on Rosenborg -1. Think I'm probably going to pass though as Molde are better than their current form suggests, which is always dangerous. I'm going to keep looking though.

[stemellor]

USA MLS - Chivas vs Real Salt Lake:
Tailing this play from ExeRok. I have RSL with around a 50% chance of winning this game, so the line holds good value.

Taken RSL ML @ 2.24 on Pinny for 1u.

Thanks to John for the tips here. I hope you don't mind me writing these up, please add anything you think is relevant:

Norway - Tippeligaen (2 games)
Aaelesund vs Odd:
This is the game with the most value as I have Aaelesund with around a 65% chance of winning tonight.
Aaelesund have won 3 and drawn 2 of their home games. They come off a huge 7-1 victory in the last hime game against Lillestrom and also have a very creditable draw 2-2 with Rosenborg, who I think will win the league this year.
Odd have lost all their away games so far this season.

Taken Aaelesund -0.75 for 1u on Pinny @ 2.03.

Tromso vs Brann
This pick also has some value as I rate a Tromso win at somewhere around the 65% mark.
Tromso have won 4 and lost 1 at home this season. The last home game was a 5-0 win over Sarpsborg.
Brann have lost all their away games this season.
Tromso have also won the last 2 head 2 head matches between these 2 teams.

Taken Tromso -1 for 1u @ 1.9 on Bet365.

[stemellor]

21 and 25 May

I'm on holiday from tomorrow, so unlikely I'll have any more plays until Sunday, after these 2.

Czech Gambrinus League - Liberec vs Teplice:

I think this offers excellent value. I'm having to play this early, so team news is not available, so just playing this small. Liberec have won 8 of their last 9 home games, with their only loss against league leaders Viktoria Plzen. Liberec need a win to keep in the last european place. Teplice in fairness have been playing well recently, winning their last 2 games, which has taken them nicely clear of the relegation zone. I think Liberec at home should be too strong and should record a 2-0 victory. The odds below therefore represent excellent value:

Taken Liberec -1 for 1u @ 2.23 on Pinny.

UEFA Champions League - Bayern vs Dortmund:

I've had a feeling this might be Dortmund's cup since that incredible finish against Malaga. Bayern are the better team are are deserved favourites, but the value favours Dortmund here, from a betting perspective. Dortmund didn't have a good result last time out, which has pushed the odds towards Bayern a little more. That was a meaningless game and not too much should be read into that result as Dortmund relaxed with this game in mind when they were winning. I would be playing this bigger, but this is Bayern's second final in 2 years and I also have a hard time seeing them lose 2 in a row!
With these odds though, Dortmund are the value pick, so this is the way I'm going to play a small stake.

Taken Dortmund ML for 0.25u @ 4.96 on Pinny.

[Johndrama]

Spot on review, good thing seeing you on the same side