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this is pretty fukked up
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The Original
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The Internet
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fukk ... images not showing up
oh well , time to smoke a bluntComment -
Aww I'm jealous. I gotta settle for a bong hit now but I'll blaze up a prerolled for the game tonight.
Who you got in the fights Saturday Fidel? Call me crazy but I see Bruce Buffer saying "AND NEW" twice. Also got Maia.Comment -
At the guy at the 2:30 mark.Comment -
The sharp forecast says there is a 110-110 tie between Houston and San Antonio. The public gauge has San Antonio winning 111-106.
Now we’re back to the public gauge being at the line and the forecast exposing what appears to be inefficiency. There is no value with San Antonio winning, the moneyline is too high and there is arguably value in a Houston moneyline.
Once again the Total is low with the books welcoming bets on the Over.
Concerning the forecast, the Total predictions haven’t fared so well recently. As little as 11 days ago the rolling 100 play profit against opening Totals, with no discrepancy, was almost 11 units and about 2 units less for the closers. Shortly before that the profit on closers at -110 actually outstripped the openers.
Anyway, when up almost 11 units for the last 100 plays there were 58 wins and 42 losses. After yesterday, over the last 100 plays the record is 53-47 with just Over 1 unit of profit against the openers and a loss against the closers.
The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season and it shows. The numbers above assume bets with no discrepancy to the line at -110 pricing. During the regular season many of these totals wouldn’t be checked twice, they would be bought. In the playoffs, I am less trustworthy about situations where money is being drawn because of the line originators. Sure the public is winning when it’s Over and the favorite, but that doesn’t mean I have to join in the festivities.
Many of us were profiting during the long regular season while the public was often confused. I see no need to give it back.
As far as the spread, value on the dog in this environment is going to turn me away every time. Sure, an underdog is “due” but I have metrics that trump the due factor that not only predicted this recent string of playoff favorites but continue to see temptations to buy as signs to stay away.
Two of those factors that have influence and are plugged into the process of handicapping are the schedule and rotation. I’ve mention this before and will say that the fact that we are seeing single games, like tonight, with the numbers where they are will not help the underdog bettors.
In a sense, history shows the market often needs to give the bettors a choice, a chance for give and take, in order to settle these short term fluctuations.
We’ve gone through a weekend; now let’s see if the brutality begins.
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they're the laughing stock of the orchestra circuitComment -
Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters
Nothing really matters
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Sitting on a shitload of Spurs to win at various prices. Just never bought into the Houston winner coming tonight.
They better fukkin' win.
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And the favorites continue to win.
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nerve giving me fits today......
everytime I think im gettin better............................Comment -
Who will win this fight?
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The sharp forecast says Washington beats Boston 115-110. The public gauge has Boston winning 114-109.
It’s virtually the same story as last night, just read yesterday’s post…
I’m not biting this time either. Last night was a bit brutal for Houston moneyline bettors I’m sure, let’s see how the market treats the Washington backers.
It’s not what they bring, it’s how they bring it.
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Looks like money coming on the side of the forecast. The line pulling through 4 could create steam on the underdog.
This is a set up towards the type of brutality I was referring to earlier. This may be the brutal market yet.
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Betting the second half of the NBA game is, in my opinion, a pure gamble.
Regardless of the second half, the damage may be done here. I have a volatility type metric that I meant to post about after the Superbowl when someone posted the odds of a comeback. That metric measures the probability of a comeback in a given game and is based on "environmental" factors. It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it. The metric, when a comeback is expected, increases in chance as the initial lead is taken and that chance is in part based on how much of a lead is taken, and how early.
Many trades I make are only when this metric is active, hence why I hate to lead early.
During the NFL playoffs, the metric was high and failing, that is, until the Superbowl. How they bring it also has a give and take, forms of settlement. Remember the Dallas/Packer game, the comeback by Dallas that never was?
For tonight's NBA game, I see little to no chance of a comeback.
Of course, it's a game of probability and I suppose anything can happen...lol.
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When it comes to tracking what types of bets lead early and then what ensues, it really is not enough to go on half time or even quarter databases.
It’s not that simple and many of these guys are intentionally misled. Have you ever seen a team take a huge lead at the beginning of the game, only to have it gone by the end of the first quarter, period, or whatever?
It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.
Think about it.
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