Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[KVB]

Duke at the line, Dayton at the line. Imagine fukkin that.

I need pizza.

[KVB]

I have picked up Northern Kentucky +20 and +2373 over Kentucky.

The numbers represent long and short term advantages.

[KVB]

The line has moved to Marquette -1. On top of that, the forecast has failed against the moneyline on all three other games in this building.

The forecast predicts Marquette in the final game. I think there are two many factors and the cat is out of the bag. I have countered the pressure with South Carolina +1 (-110) and (-105) over Marquette.

It should be Marquette, but...

Good Luck

[KVB]

Let's round it out with Kent St. +20 and +1608 over UCLA.

At the least, I expect these lines to pay for the lost moneylines, less the vig, while I take the shot.

Good Luck

[KVB]

[KVB]

I have picked up South Carolina +3.5 (-117) and +148 over Marquette LIVE.

[KVB]

The market has created a situation where unsophisticated players like the public hammering upset lines because there have been no surprises to more advanced market metrics leaning that direction.

We saw a similar thing in the NFL Playoffs and look what happened to Atlanta during the game.

I have uncovered a couple of factors driving money to Kent St. and think that play may be in trouble. The moneyline odds become far less attractive for the play, at the very least, but the spread still carries a nice advantage.

Let's see if UCLA blows them out early and big. I just didn't have time to go into the way some of these games were played today, particularly the Kansas blowout, the care taken to get a 16 point margin in Oregon, the 152 point Duke total opener push, among others.

[KVB]

...At this point we have to figure out where money is being pulled from what is a general steer towards upsets...

...Kansas State, who trails by 9 points late in the first, will come back and cover. When they do, metrics will fall into place and I will be buying Kent State...

I may have failed the thread here as I chose an upset in Kent State that had money flowing into it. While it that was the case, it didn't deteriorate the edge. But the fact is, the market was steering money in that direction.

[KVB]

I just picked up South Carolina pk (-110) over Marquette 2nd HALF.

[KVB]

[KVB]

I just picked up South Carolina pk (-110) over Marquette 2nd HALF....

I forgot the line changed, this was actually bought at (-105), not the -110 I tried to get.

A penny saved is a penny earned...lol.

[KVB]

Michigan State declaring themselves a forecast upset winner after trailing early.

In the ACC, in rotations order, the forecast has failed against the moneyline 6 times in a row and 7 of the last 8.

I've seen this stretch out further in the tournament but it looks like Michigan will break the streak with a big win tonight.

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

[KVB]

...At the least, I expect these lines to pay for the lost moneylines, less the vig, while I take the shot...

Well there you go. It's been a long two days but in the end Kent St, N. Kentucky, and South Carolina settled the markets well.

I know I looked for a couple of longshots in there, but in the end, after watching the money flow I made a flurry of bets and the evening ended as expected. The real patient analysts just wait until the end of the day and hope the puzzle puts together a clear picture.

It’s been a long couple of days and that upset and big surprise has yet to come, in my opinion.

Fortunately, this tournament isn’t over.

[KVB]

Here are forecast results for the NCAA Tourney so far, including the first four, with a half point discrepancy against the market:

Against the Spread:

Talk about give and take. For Thursday the forecasts were 9-7 ATS. Friday they were 7-9 ATS. Add the first 4 and they are 17-19 (47.22%).

Against the moneylines:

Overall: 15-20 (42.86%), when predicting the favorite to win: 10-3 (76.92%), when predicting the upset: 3-17 (15%), when predicting an upset that moves across the line and closes as a favorite: 2-0. There was one game with no moneyline prediction.

Note that when you add the 9-9 upset record from the conference tourneys we get 31.2% predicting upsets…back to “normal.”

Against the Totals:

Open: 18-16 (52.94%), Close: 16-18 (47.06%)

There was one game with no predicted total as it was right on the line.

On Thursday the forecasts were 10-5 against the close, on Friday they were 5-10.

Remember, this is with as little as a half point discrepancy against the market.

[KVB]

When we add the conference tournaments to the Totals record we get:

Open: 79-54 (59.4%), Close: 77-58 (57.04%)

Total markets in NCAA Basketball are known to be softer, with less limits and more line movement. Those results in such a give and take world are indicative of that softer market.

[KVB]

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1489104696371.webm

[KVB]

...here are the forecasts for NIT games...
Oakland 80, Clemson 68...

...The public gauge had Clemson beating Oakland with the exact opposite score...80-68. That was a "spread" of 24 points. The line was Clemson -10 and I hit both bets, getting +500 and the side.

That score and "spread" have certain compression factors that tell me that this wave of upset predicting by the forecast running so high may be turning. I hope not. I'll track it here daily. It'll be an interesting story...

We saw the same thing with Baylor vs. New Mexico St. and a 72-63 forecast and gauge. In that game, the Total opened and closed at 135. The final score landed on 135.

Indeed, the forecast success against the upset turned dramatically.

[Seaweed]

KVB who the fuk you typing to?

[KVB]

Here are the results of each bold play I’ve put in the thread since the conference tourneys began.

The left column is win/loss record against spreads and Totals, with the moneylines removed.

I’ve made a few mistakes in action while trying to trade and post at the same time; most notably, not putting the moneyline of TCU beating Kansas on March 9^th.

Take out the 14, 15, 16, and 23 to 1 underdog shots and we have a better looking total as well.

It’s been a battle for sure.

ATS/TOT				1 Unit
Record	Date	Play	Result	Per Bet
	7-Mar	Pitt -149 over GTech	W	0.67
1-0	8-Mar	Oregon St. +15 (-110) over Cal	W	0.91
2-0		Oregon St. +14.5 (-110) over Cal	W	0.91
2-1		FAU +6.5 (-105) over Marshall	L	-1
2-2		FAU +7 (-110) over Marshall	L	-1
2-3		UNDER 154 (-108) Mizzou vs Auburn	L	-1
3-3		Wash + 12.5 (-105) over USC	W	0.95
	9-Mar	Louisville -137 over Duke	L	-1
3-4		Louisville -1 (-129) over Duke	L	-1
3-5		Penn St. +6 (-105) over Mich St.	L	-1
4-5		TCU +8.5 (-105) over Kansas	W	0.95
		Rice -121 over UTEP	L	-1
5-5		Indiana -2.5 (-105) over Iowa	W	0.95
6-5		St. Louis +9.5 (-105) over GW	W	0.95
		St. Louis +413 over GW	L	-1
6-6		Rutgers +8.5 (-105) over N'Western	L	-1
		Rutgers +352 over N'Western	L	-1
7-6		Marshall +5 (+100) over ODU	W	1
		Marshall +206 over ODU	W	2.06
8-6	10-Mar	Kentucky -10.5 (-105) over Georgia	W	0.95
9-6		Alabama +4.5 (-105) over S Carolina	W	0.95
10-6		Wisconsin -5 (-105) over Indiana	W	0.95
10-7		La Tech -5.5 (-110) 2nd over Marshall	L	-1
11-7		Vandy +5.5 (-105) over Florida	W	0.95
		Vandy +211 over Florida	W	2.11
		Florida St. -118 over ND	L	-1
12-7		OVER 84 (-110) 2nd UCLA vs. Zona	W	0.91
13-7	11-Mar	Alabama +10.5 (-105) over Kentucky	W	0.95
		Alabama +543 over Kentucky	L	-1
13-8		UNDER 126.5 (-105) UCF vs. SMU	L	-1
13-9		Marshall +10 over MTSU	L	-1
13-10		Oregon -1 (-105) over Arizona	L	-1
13-11	14-Mar	NO -1 (+102) over Mt. St. Mary's	L	-1
		NO -105 over Mt. St. Mary's	L	-1
14-11		Over 148 (-105) K State vs. Wake	W	0.95
14-12	15-Mar	UNDER 141 (-105) USC vs Providence	L	-1
14-13	16-Mar	WV -13 (-110) over Bucknell	L	-1
14-14		Nevada +6 (-105) over Iowa St.	L	-1
		Nevada +238 over Iowa St.	L	-1
14-15		N Dakota +17.5 (-105) over Arizona	L	-1
		N Dakota +1476 over Arizona	L	-1
15-15		Jacksonville St +18 (-105) over L'ville	W	0.95
		Jacksonville St +1522 over L'ville	L	-1
15-16	17-Mar	Creighton +2 (-105) over RI	L	-1
16-16		Dayton +6.5 (-105) over Wichita St.	W	0.95
16-17		K State +3 (-105) over Cincinnati	L	-1
		K State +144 over Cincinnati	L	-1
17-17		N Kentucky +20 (-105) over Kentucky	W	0.95
		N Kentucky +2373 over Kentucky	L	-1
18-17		S. Carolina +1 (-110) over Marquette	W	0.91
		S. Carolina -105 over Marquette	W	0.95
19-17		Kent St. +20 (-105) over UCLA	W	0.95
		Kent St. +1608 over UCLA	L	-1
20-17		S. Car +3.5 (-117) over Marquette LIVE	W	0.85
		S. Car +148 over Marquette LIVE	W	1.48
21-17		S. Car pk (-105) over Marquette 2nd	W	0.95
21-17		TOTALS		-2.99

[KVB]

KVB who the fuk you typing to?

Anyone interested.

There's nothing like it anywhere in the world, Mr. Weed.

[KVB]

This shit is no longer funny.

Grapes, check in pal.

[KVB]

...the NIT so far…

The forecasts are 11-4 against the open and 10-5 against the closing spread.
They are 8-6 against the moneyline with 6 very nice upsets in there...

There’s one NIT game Saturday, here is the forecast:

Mississippi 74, Syracuse 72

Ole miss could sneak this one in early with a little forecast upset.

Careful though, Syracuse has something to prove.

[KVB]

I have Notre Dame winning by 1 point and expect the WV -2.5 to drop. I'm probably passing on the game, I don't think Dame gets.

[KVB]

ND/WV

The sharp forecast says Notre Dame beats West Virginia 68-67. The public gauge says WV wins 75-72.

The line opened at WV -2.5 and I had expected it to drop toward the forecast. It didn’t, it ticked to the gauge. The Total opened just below the gauge and ticked away from my forecast on heavy public support.

When I look a little further than last night I can see strong pressure on West Virginia. Likewise, bettors think Dame could be the upset. The more sophisticated decision makers are looking for a West Virginia cover here while everyone else, including forecasters side with Dame.

I am passing on this issue because money is both trying to settle and start the day’s flow. Yesterday I talked about OK St being in a position have a frustrating game versus Michigan. They lost by one and couldn’t advance. I see WV in similar environment and while OK St. covered the spread, I’m not so sure about WV.

Sometimes the early bird gets the worm and today I’ll let him, I’m waiting to see where the chips and passing on what would be a West Virginia moneyline bet in the trading account.

[KVB]

Manster I think there's a nip slip in that video above, can you find it?

[KVB]

Wisconsin/Nova

The sharp forecast has Villanova beating Wisconsin 74-57. The public gauge says Nova wins 66-60.

There’s quite a bit of public support for Nova but the books have kept it at the gauge. The line ticked from -5.5 to -6 but has come back down. The Total opened between the numbers closer to the gauge and has moved toward the forecast.

There are metrics that indicate the upset here, of course, and Villanova going out would be a bit of the surprise that NCAAB seeks. There are some metrics sending money towards Wisconsin but the low line may help mitigate those factors.

I will be stepping out this morning but when I return I may be looking to pull the trigger on Wisconsin. Money directed yesterday, most of which was in Greenville, implies it may have done so in anticipation of Wisconsin getting the upset here.

[KVB]

WV out 10-0 right away.

I forgot to mention in the post on this game that this should be a day of twists and turns and misleading results everywhere.

Perhaps this is the beginning of it already.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Manster I think there's a nip slip in that video above, can you find it?

2:14

[KVB]

2:14

I think it's closer to 2:19.

Gimme my fukkin points back!!!!

Just kidding

[DiggityDaggityDo]

At 2:14 you can see the whole titty.

[Dr Nostron]

I enjoy reading these KVB - keep up good work!

[Da Manster!]

Manster I think there's a nip slip in that video above, can you find it?

yes sir!...@2:19!....