1. 03-01-11 10:44 AM #1
    Justin7
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    +13.5 -110 or +13 +100?

    NCAAB. Total of 135, during tournament. Which is the better number?
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  2. 03-01-11 10:45 AM #2
    rfr3sh
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    you dont have an up to date half point calc?
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  3. 03-01-11 10:46 AM #3
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    NCAAB. Total of 135, during tournament. Which is the better number?
    Flip a coin? I'd say +13+100 but only extremely marginally so.
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  4. 03-01-11 10:46 AM #4
    RealSlimShady
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    I would take +13, personally.
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  5. 03-01-11 10:47 AM #5
    doublej95
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    +13 ev
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  6. 03-01-11 10:47 AM #6
    aca
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    +13 +100

    for me!
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  7. 03-01-11 10:47 AM #7
    ApricotSinner32
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    Justin I think you are way too methodical thinking that every half point is the same value in different games based on a total. If I think it has value i'm taking +13 +100 everytime.
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  8. 03-01-11 10:48 AM #8
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
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    your paying 10 % for the extra half point.

    Honestly I would take 13 if it hit on that number push, you sacrafice the winnings, but on a loss of 13 or more you pay the extra juice...13+ is the only number that hurts you in this scenerio.

    Interested to hear your take on this scenerio
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  9. 03-01-11 10:51 AM #9
    doublej95
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    Quote Originally Posted by EDDIE MONEY LINE View Post
    your paying 10 cents for the extra half point.

    Honestly I would take 13 if it hit on that number push, you sacrafice the winnings, but on a loss of 13 or more you pay the extra juice...13+ is the only number that hurts you in this scenerio.

    Interested to hear your take on this scenerio
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  10. 03-01-11 10:52 AM #10
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by EDDIE MONEY LINE View Post
    your paying 10 % for the extra half point.

    Honestly I would take 13 if it hit on that number push, you sacrafice the winnings, but on a loss of 13 or more you pay the extra juice...13+ is the only number that hurts you in this scenerio.

    Interested to hear your take on this scenerio
    There is a right and a wrong answer. The only relevant detail is: how often will the favorite win this game by exactly 13? Maybe I can't determine this exactly, but if I bet either without knowing the best answer, I am making a potential trading mistake.
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  11. 03-01-11 10:56 AM #11
    Doc JS
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    Count me in with the +100 group...

    Doc
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  12. 03-01-11 11:00 AM #12
    wrongturn
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    Half point calculator says +13.5 should be -109.2, from all totals.
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  13. 03-01-11 11:04 AM #13
    EDDIE MONEY LINE
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    Obviously I want to win every bet I make. I guess on a larger bet, say 500...

    +13 if it ends on 13= 0 loss 0 gain. 14+ =500 loss
    +13.5 end on 13 = 0 loss 500 gain 14+ =550 loss

    Guess you need to make the determination if $50 is worth it to you to gain that extra advantage if in fact the game lands exactly on 13. Tough to determine. In this scenerio, you worse case would be spending an extra $50 potentially to make $500. I think the extra .5 is worth it with the upside potential if game ends exactly on 13....or I could take the risk...To each his own, but the correct play in this scenerio is taking the extra .5 to maximize value. IMO
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  14. 03-01-11 11:13 AM #14
    Yi
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    according to the half-point calculator if the no-vig line at +13.0 is +100/+100, +13.5 is ~-109. So I guess it all depends what is the average no-vig line (at the sharp books) for +13.0.
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  15. 03-01-11 11:17 AM #15
    rfr3sh
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    Quote Originally Posted by wrongturn View Post
    Half point calculator says +13.5 should be -109.2, from all totals.
    Quote Originally Posted by Yi View Post
    according to the half-point calculator if the no-vig line at +13.0 is +100/+100, +13.5 is ~-109. So I guess it all depends what is the average no-vig line (at the sharp books) for +13.0.
    the half pt calculator on this site is not updated at all if I remember correctly so it is not as accurate
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  16. 03-01-11 11:21 AM #16
    Regul8er
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    I suppose it depends on the size of the wager. If you only betting $25, then it's the difference of $2.50 If your betting $1,000, its the difference of $100.

    Personally I don't buy half points when the spread gets into double digits. I generally buy points in fear of fouling at the end of the game, to give me a little wiggle room for comfort sake.
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  17. 03-01-11 11:23 AM #17
    LLXC
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    Quote Originally Posted by wrongturn View Post
    Half point calculator says +13.5 should be -109.2, from all totals.
    That's what I usually use to find out. I wonder if the thing is up to date?
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  18. 03-01-11 11:24 AM #18
    RudyRuetigger
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    13 you buy to 13.5, 14 you don't
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  19. 03-01-11 11:25 AM #19
    30K Millionaire
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    +13 +100 is the right answer, because that is what you have on your spreadsheet (Youngstown St +13 +100)
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  20. 03-01-11 11:29 AM #20
    VTranX
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    +100
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  21. 03-01-11 11:38 AM #21
    FourLengthsClear
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    For the +13.5 -110 to be better value, the probability of a 13 point winning margin needs to be 4.76% or higher.
    CBB is not really my thing but it would take a very low total expectation (which 135 is not) for that condition to be met.

    +13 at +100 is the play.
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  22. 03-01-11 12:04 PM #22
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by 30K Millionaire View Post
    +13 +100 is the right answer, because that is what you have on your spreadsheet (Youngstown St +13 +100)
    its clear everyone here including justin7 thinks its +13 +100, but I can't wait to see why.


    I have strong evidence its +13.5 -110
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  23. 03-01-11 12:24 PM #23
    B1GER1C828
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    13.5 -110 i think.
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  24. 03-01-11 12:25 PM #24
    Nicky Santoro
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    They are just about to the penny.. EQUAL.. when line is +/-13 -105 each way, no vig line is +/-13 ev..

    if you made it +/-13.5, then no vig line becomes -13.5 +110/+13.5 -110..

    so they are practically IDENTICAL..
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  25. 03-01-11 12:29 PM #25
    ApricotSinner32
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    Nicky you stud you.
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  26. 03-01-11 12:29 PM #26
    tony_come
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    Always buy half a pt down:-13.5 buy down to -13....ppl shop around for better juice
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  27. 03-01-11 05:52 PM #27
    RudyRuetigger
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  28. 03-01-11 05:54 PM #28
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by aca View Post
    +13 +100

    for me!
    No brainer.
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  29. 03-01-11 06:02 PM #29
    ZetaPsi808
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    justin, can u show us what half point calculator you use?
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  30. 03-01-11 06:08 PM #30
    chemicalbrother
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    Quote Originally Posted by rfr3sh View Post
    you dont have an up to date half point calc?
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  31. 03-01-11 06:43 PM #31
    BettingWizard
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    +13.5 -110


    actually they are the same......... if you buy 13 +100 to 13.5, it would become +13.5 -110
    Last edited by BettingWizard; 03-01-11 at 06:47 PM.
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  32. 03-01-11 06:51 PM #32
    lolguy999
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    my theory in NCAAB is to always sell .5 whenever possible... if you think ur game might just tighten up to the half point maybe u should look at some plays for your card...
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