Official Streak for the Cash discussion thread

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  • ThaddeusB
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-10-10
    • 8874

    #1016
    Peru W/D is the biggest fav on the board (~ -230 no juice) and only 9% are picking it (right now, will likely go up a bit by game time). Jeter no is ~ -200 no juice. Chile W/D is just under -200 no juice. Shame one can't get all 3, but the Chile/Peru combo is far superior to the Jeter/late baseball game combo.
    Last edited by ThaddeusB; 07-08-11, 03:59 PM.
    Comment
    • ThaddeusB
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-10-10
      • 8874

      #1017
      Originally posted by craigpb
      Everyone is starting out much slower than last month so far.
      That's because most of the "big" (-200 and better) favorites have lost, making it hard to build. The ~ -150 favorites are running way over expectation though.

      That and the lower number of participants this month.
      Comment
      • yisman
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-01-08
        • 75682

        #1018
        Lost 20 bucks betting the University team. Something weird was going on with the lines.
        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
        [/quote]

        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
        Comment
        • lordswing
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-22-09
          • 765

          #1019
          Originally posted by ThaddeusB
          Peru W/D is the biggest fav on the board (~ -230 no juice) and only 9% are picking it (right now, will likely go up a bit by game time). Jeter no is ~ -200 no juice. Chile W/D is just under -200 no juice. Shame one can't get all 3, but the Chile/Peru combo is far superior to the Jeter/late baseball game combo.
          you can always hope Jeter goes 2/2 or 2/3 and get a quick green I guess, but that's just as likely as the game going into extra innings and missing out on a mediocre MLB pick


          Originally posted by yisman
          Lost 20 bucks betting the University team. Something weird was going on with the lines.
          How large was the line move? I don't remember seeing Pinny having odds up last night, I just remember checking in the morning, then again when you posted (had already picked Dublin) and saw it moved in my favor. Alarm bells probably should've went off in my head, oh well.
          Comment
          • yisman
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 09-01-08
            • 75682

            #1020
            Last night Bray was in the +150s

            odds shot up today to make Dublin favored. Bray in the +180s

            then, at like 2 PM, they moved again to back around where they were.

            re: Jeter

            no was a fairly easy call there. But the rain in NYC made the decision for me.
            [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
            [/quote]

            [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
            Comment
            • ThaWoj
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-09-10
              • 6760

              #1021
              have joey votto going tonight, trying to get to 5-game winning streak. my past 4 wins:



              7/07/2011
              Adam Lind@CLE 1-for-5
              7/06/2011
              Chase Headley@SF 1-for-4
              7/05/2011
              Robinson Cano@CLE 2-for-5
              7/04/2011
              Adrian Gonzalez vs TOR 1-for-5
              Comment
              • yisman
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 09-01-08
                • 75682

                #1022
                I got 5 in a row after I lost due to a missed day. So really 11 in a row. The rules are lame. If you miss a day, you should be able to keep your streak.
                [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                [/quote]

                [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                Comment
                • ThaWoj
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-09-10
                  • 6760

                  #1023
                  yeah thats crap, what they really should do is if you miss a day, your pick should revert to the last successful pick you made. I.E. in my case 2 posts above, if I had forgotten to choose votto tonight, it should automatically give the last successful pick that i made which would be adam lind. isnt that the whole nature of this contest is anyways, based on breaking a single players hitting streak?

                  btw votto cashes have carlos santana vs tor and ryan theriot vs ariz to roundout the weekend
                  Comment
                  • lordswing
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-22-09
                    • 765

                    #1024
                    looks to be a soccer filled day, was excited to see football football on the schedule, but pretty much a pk
                    Comment
                    • craigpb
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 06-19-08
                      • 699

                      #1025
                      Have no idea why Peru got draw too when they were the fav, and naturally everyone picking Mexico despite their youth and getting one of the few results so far.
                      Comment
                      • revnecro1273
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-25-09
                        • 1698

                        #1026
                        Originally posted by craigpb
                        Have no idea why Peru got draw too when they were the fav, and naturally everyone picking Mexico despite their youth and getting one of the few results so far.

                        no idea why either why espn had them as w/d...but as to why the majority took mexico, they have no clue..they went with the bigger name not knowing anything about this current team
                        Comment
                        • craigpb
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 06-19-08
                          • 699

                          #1027
                          Looks like a couple finally getting past the 5 mark. Lots of soccer draws helping with that.
                          Comment
                          • yisman
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 09-01-08
                            • 75682

                            #1028
                            Easy soccer today but my guy didn't pick it for me. Bummer.
                            [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                            [/quote]

                            [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                            Comment
                            • ThaddeusB
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-10-10
                              • 8874

                              #1029
                              Originally posted by revnecro1273
                              no idea why either why espn had them as w/d...but as to why the majority took mexico, they have no clue..they went with the bigger name not knowing anything about this current team
                              Probably either because ESPN knew everyone would pick Mexico anyway, or because they were dumb enough to think Mexico should be the favorite.

                              The underdog quite often gets over 65% on STFC. Not sure if ESPN purposely picks things where people are likely to mislead themselves or not, but it really makes it quite obvious why sportsbooks make money.
                              Comment
                              • ThaddeusB
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-10-10
                                • 8874

                                #1030
                                Originally posted by yisman
                                Easy soccer today but my guy didn't pick it for me. Bummer.
                                Yah, I was surprised you didn't go for Paraguay +1.5. That was close to -200 no juice and the line kept moving in their favor as well.
                                Comment
                                • ThaddeusB
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-10-10
                                  • 8874

                                  #1031
                                  If anyone sees this in time, any other cyclist is a MASSIVE favorite today (7/10). Gilbert, Voeckler, and Hagen are the top 3, but they only have ~14%, ~6%, and ~5% respective, leaving 75% for the field. That's a -300, which is virtually unheard of in STFC. Its a very wide open stage - 30 people have around 2% each to win.

                                  P.S. I'm still in great shape on the monthly wins leaderboard. Hopefully some at the top are fooled by the cycling prop or go with the toss-up soccer prop.
                                  Comment
                                  • yisman
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 09-01-08
                                    • 75682

                                    #1032
                                    Originally posted by ThaddeusB
                                    Yah, I was surprised you didn't go for Paraguay +1.5. That was close to -200 no juice and the line kept moving in their favor as well.
                                    I told him to take it but he didn't.

                                    Not my choice to pass on everything. The win/draw and +1.5 were massive favorites.

                                    SftC messing up with Copa America.
                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                    [/quote]

                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                    Comment
                                    • yisman
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 09-01-08
                                      • 75682

                                      #1033
                                      Originally posted by ThaddeusB
                                      If anyone sees this in time, any other cyclist is a MASSIVE favorite today (7/10). Gilbert, Voeckler, and Hagen are the top 3, but they only have ~14%, ~6%, and ~5% respective, leaving 75% for the field. That's a -300, which is virtually unheard of in STFC. Its a very wide open stage - 30 people have around 2% each to win.

                                      I concur. I used Betfair to approximate no vig odds (using back and lay) and came up with:

                                      14.49 6.25 5.56 for the three, totaling under 26.5%. Can't pass this up, although I don't particularly like taking field vs. the top three favorites.
                                      [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                      [/quote]

                                      [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                      Comment
                                      • yisman
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 09-01-08
                                        • 75682

                                        #1034
                                        I've been watching and there were five guys in the lead, until a car with an awful driver knocked down Fletcher, causing Hoogerland to hurtle into a fence. Hoogerland was considered the top threat to Voeckler.

                                        No it's Voeckler vs. two others.
                                        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                        [/quote]

                                        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                        Comment
                                        • yisman
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 09-01-08
                                          • 75682

                                          #1035
                                          Sanchez edges Voeckler! He conserved energy by staying third almost the whole way and took his run at the end.
                                          [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                          [/quote]

                                          [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                          Comment
                                          • ThaddeusB
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-10-10
                                            • 8874

                                            #1036
                                            Originally posted by yisman
                                            I've been watching and there were five guys in the lead, until a car with an awful driver knocked down Fletcher, causing Hoogerland to hurtle into a fence. Hoogerland was considered the top threat to Voeckler.

                                            No it's Voeckler vs. two others.
                                            Was watching the live odds there at the end. Even with just the 3 left, Voeckler was +500ish and Sanchez pulled it off for us.

                                            Almost the entire monthly leader board went with the early soccer game. Unfortunately for me, Sweden came through as a whopping -105 favorite, so I didn't gain on many people. I also missed the USA/Brazil game because cycling took too long. Its not the end of the world because the Yankees are -150 no juice, so as long as that is over by 4pm I'll still get the the same number of picks in without giving up any EV. Hopefully USA will pull the upset now that I couldn't get on Brazil.
                                            Comment
                                            • yisman
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 09-01-08
                                              • 75682

                                              #1037
                                              Voeckler was +500 with only three in it? The talk was that he was the clear favorite with Hoogerland out.


                                              More lopsided props this afternoon.

                                              You got Stricker, Portland, and the Phillies.
                                              Last edited by yisman; 07-10-11, 11:48 AM.
                                              [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                              [/quote]

                                              [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                              Comment
                                              • yisman
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 09-01-08
                                                • 75682

                                                #1038
                                                Heavy favorite Stricker about to go down.

                                                Rookie Kyle Stanley was four strokes down headed into today but has the lead.

                                                Guess I should've gone with Portland. Seattle ML was around +180 at Betfair.
                                                [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                [/quote]

                                                [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                Comment
                                                • yisman
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 09-01-08
                                                  • 75682

                                                  #1039
                                                  And Portland just got red carded and fell apart. Wow.
                                                  [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                  [/quote]

                                                  [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                  Comment
                                                  • yisman
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 09-01-08
                                                    • 75682

                                                    #1040
                                                    Truly incredible.

                                                    Stricker pulls off a wild comeback, aided by a blown short putt from Stanley, and Portland was up 2-1 in the 74th, but:

                                                    goal Montero (Seattle)
                                                    red card Portland
                                                    PK awarded on the play and converted by Alonso (Seattle)


                                                    tough one Thadd
                                                    [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                    [/quote]

                                                    [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                    Comment
                                                    • yisman
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 09-01-08
                                                      • 75682

                                                      #1041
                                                      Yearly SftC tradition of picking the HR derby.

                                                      Using Pinnacle odds:

                                                      Fielder +402, 19.92%
                                                      Bautista +276, 26.6%

                                                      Combined=46.52%

                                                      taking out the vig might make it 44 or 45. Basically, edge to Any Other Player.

                                                      Holliday or tie would be the pick in the other prop. At least a 55%er, I think.

                                                      No odds to base homer totals on. Unless books post odds for that, you'd have to base it off past years, I guess.

                                                      Soccer: both to win teams are favored. -140 to -150 range

                                                      Argentina is -145 at Pinnacle to cover -1.5
                                                      [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                      [/quote]

                                                      [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ThaddeusB
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-10-10
                                                        • 8874

                                                        #1042
                                                        Originally posted by yisman
                                                        Voeckler was +500 with only three in it? The talk was that he was the clear favorite with Hoogerland out.


                                                        More lopsided props this afternoon.

                                                        You got Stricker, Portland, and the Phillies.
                                                        Yah, Sanchez was about -125, the other guy was around +250, and Voeckler was +500. No idea why, perhaps because bettors felt Voeckler was content to take the yellow jacket? (These odds were from the final 30k or so - they might have been different earlier.)

                                                        Stricker wasn't a huge favorite, but Portland was the best play of the day odds wise.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ThaddeusB
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                          • 8874

                                                          #1043
                                                          Originally posted by yisman
                                                          Truly incredible.

                                                          Stricker pulls off a wild comeback, aided by a blown short putt from Stanley, and Portland was up 2-1 in the 74th, but:

                                                          goal Montero (Seattle)
                                                          red card Portland
                                                          PK awarded on the play and converted by Alonso (Seattle)


                                                          tough one Thadd
                                                          Yah, that was a killer. I happened to take a peak at the live odds and Seattle was +1200 somewhere around the 70th minute, and that's in a highly juiced up live market.

                                                          Then I went 0/3 on the SNB props. The first two were almost exactly 50/50 by my calculations and I guess wrong on both. The no run was a clear favorite but also lost.

                                                          I'm still on pace (my estimate is 3.5 wins/day to win) for the monthly wins, but only just barely.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ThaddeusB
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 08-10-10
                                                            • 8874

                                                            #1044
                                                            Originally posted by yisman
                                                            Yearly SftC tradition of picking the HR derby.

                                                            Using Pinnacle odds:

                                                            Fielder +402, 19.92%
                                                            Bautista +276, 26.6%

                                                            Combined=46.52%

                                                            taking out the vig might make it 44 or 45. Basically, edge to Any Other Player.

                                                            Holliday or tie would be the pick in the other prop. At least a 55%er, I think.

                                                            No odds to base homer totals on. Unless books post odds for that, you'd have to base it off past years, I guess.

                                                            Soccer: both to win teams are favored. -140 to -150 range

                                                            Argentina is -145 at Pinnacle to cover -1.5
                                                            I'm still playing for wins right now, so I'm taking the two "win" sides on the early soccer games and then the 3 round-by-round HRD props. 5dimes will likely have some helpful props up tomorrow to go by, even if no one else does. If not, I'll calculate them myself based on past years.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • craigpb
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 06-19-08
                                                              • 699

                                                              #1045
                                                              Good luck. Hopefully you go on a decent streak.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • yisman
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 09-01-08
                                                                • 75682

                                                                #1046
                                                                Originally posted by ThaddeusB

                                                                Stricker wasn't a huge favorite, but Portland was the best play of the day odds wise.

                                                                Stricker was a huge favorite! Bigger favorite than Portland odds-wise. He was about -270 at Pinnacle. High juice books like Bodog had him at -400.

                                                                Downside was that it was a long pick and anyone picking it was trading in two for one.

                                                                RE: props

                                                                By what I looked at, Beltran AOR should've been a slight favorite based on past results and Accuscore projections, no homer should've definitely been favored considering that neither lineup has much in terms of offense and two guys were pitching who don't allow many homers. Also, SF is an extreme pitcher's park. I estimated 55% no.

                                                                No run was like -150 on 5 Dimes (vs. +120 for yes).
                                                                [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                                [/quote]

                                                                [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                                Comment
                                                                • yisman
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 09-01-08
                                                                  • 75682

                                                                  #1047
                                                                  Mon 7/11Ortiz vs Holliday - most home runs Rnd 1 05:00 PM317 David Ortiz-120 318 Matt Holliday+103

                                                                  From Pinnacle. I'd still go with Holliday due to the tie, but the odds are interesting, considering Holliday has shorter odds to win the competition.
                                                                  [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                                  [/quote]

                                                                  [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ThaddeusB
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-10-10
                                                                    • 8874

                                                                    #1048
                                                                    Originally posted by yisman
                                                                    Stricker was a huge favorite! Bigger favorite than Portland odds-wise. He was about -270 at Pinnacle. High juice books like Bodog had him at -400.

                                                                    Downside was that it was a long pick and anyone picking it was trading in two for one.

                                                                    RE: props

                                                                    By what I looked at, Beltran AOR should've been a slight favorite based on past results and Accuscore projections, no homer should've definitely been favored considering that neither lineup has much in terms of offense and two guys were pitching who don't allow many homers. Also, SF is an extreme pitcher's park. I estimated 55% no.

                                                                    No run was like -150 on 5 Dimes (vs. +120 for yes).
                                                                    I must have been looking at the wrong thing when I looked at the golf odds because I remember it being -150 or something like that. I wasn't really looking closely though because I was definitely not picking it anyway b/c of the length.

                                                                    Beltran was ~52% H/W/SO in his career and the pitcher was ~52% H/W/SO in his career as well, so looked like H/W/SO was a minuscule favorite to me.

                                                                    As far as the HR prop goes, the one pitcher was about .08 HR/inning and the other .09 HR/inning. Low numbers, but you were getting 4 innings, so EV was .68 before factoring in other things. If we say those numbers equate to 93% and 92% no HR/inning (allowing a slight increase form the raw numbers since its possible to hit 2HR in 1 inning) its 53% to no. I figured the heart of both lineups would be up in the 6th when the pitchers were starting to tire, so that pushed it to yes for me. I didn't think to factor in the park, which probably puts no back at a clear favorite.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ThaddeusB
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                                      • 8874

                                                                      #1049
                                                                      Originally posted by yisman
                                                                      Mon 7/11Ortiz vs Holliday - most home runs Rnd 1 05:00 PM317 David Ortiz-120 318 Matt Holliday+103

                                                                      From Pinnacle. I'd still go with Holliday due to the tie, but the odds are interesting, considering Holliday has shorter odds to win the competition.
                                                                      I managed to get 1 win back this morning as the top of the leader board went W/D and Moscow won easily. Helsingborg is also winning easily at the moment, but no gain against the top of the board there - they appear to just be picking the higher %age in every game at the moment.

                                                                      I haven't decided what to do re:Holliday vs. Ortiz. The tie is probably worth a fair bit making Holliday the favorite. Most the leader board will be on Ortiz, so its an opportunity to gain or lose against everybody if I go with Holliday.

                                                                      I'll research the O/Us this afternoon and possibly factor in the early round #s as well before picking.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • lordswing
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 02-22-09
                                                                        • 765

                                                                        #1050
                                                                        i'm probably going to sit out today, but i imagine the tie has to be worth at least 50 cents (yo Pinny, hire me!)
                                                                        Comment
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