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RoyOriginally Posted by RoyBacon
i think it will cool off by day's end. not enough volume on the upside to sustain it. like you've said before, i think we need those strong earnings to give the rally the support it needs for the multi day upward trend.
i'll be surprised if we gain more than .75% on the s&p and nasdaq by day's end today, which are the two i care the most about
I don't really agree. We saw weak afternoons this week and a little seesawing yesterday for sure. So trade history is on your side.
But this is the last day of the quarter and we are still over sold. We are off session highs but holding nicely. SPY is at 262.19. I think it's a screaming buy here. Could see a close over 264 so double the gain for the day.
i hope you're right
262.75 still looking good. Has not broken below 262 since getting above it an hour after the open.
I bought 265 calls this AM. I think we can get over 271 in the next couple of weeks. Long way to go but think we get there.
263, holding at the highs. Yes, light volume. One wonders if she will hold if a little selling starts.
good call Roy. i was way off w the prediction which is why i am still a beginner with a long way to go.
even after this decent rally i am still down $3425 or 6.75% so i am still in a Red position pretty significantly
really hoping we get the weeklong rallies you are thinking of next mon 4/2 through fri 4/13
Mentioned earlier I think next week will give us a strong clue how the year will go.
We closed soft and futures are red now. BUT.. we have start of Q2 Monday and I think she jumps right out of the gate and runs.
market closed today which is probably a good thing. will the three day weekend yield some better news that China and US are still talking and we get more pops next week
My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.
I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.
Last edited by RoyBacon; 03-30-18 at 10:55 AM.
My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.
I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.
All the Best ROY!!!!
Careful Roy . Someone around here predicted Mueller wil be gone by then .
My play for next week. 220 SPY calls. Bought at 1.02.
I'm betting we come out firing Monday AM.
We know the market doesn't like uncertainty .
JT that has been on mind. if trump directs mueller's firing, it could get crazy politically and no doubt the market will be adversely affected.Careful Roy . Someone around here predicted Mueller wil be gone by then .
We know the market doesn't like uncertainty .
it's a big uncertainty hovering over the market and it is very uncomfortable
I'd put the likelihood of that around 1%.
The biggest short term risk are numbers coming out too strong and spooking the bond market. First part of April could be one of the most volatile time frames ever. Strong earnings vs inflation/rate increases.
There is not a ton on the economic calendar next week which is good for the bulls.
next WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC reports
time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous MONDAY, APRIL 2 9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI March -- 55.7 10 am ISM manufacturing index March 60.0% 60.8% 10 am Construction spending Feb. 0.3% 0.0% TUESDAY, APRIL 3 Varies Motor vehicle sales March 16.8 mln 17.1 mln WEDNESDAY, APRIL 4 8:15 am ADP employment March -- 235,000 9:45 am Markit services PMI March -- 54.1 10 am ISM nonmanufacturing index March 59.0% 59.5% 10 am Factory orders Feb. 1.7% -1.4% THURSDAY, APRIL 5 8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3/31 222,000 215,000 8:30 am Trade deficit Feb. -$57.5 bln -$56.6 bln FRIDAY, APRIL 6 8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls March 185,000 313,000 8:30 am Unemployment rate March 4.0% 4.1% 8:30 am Average hourly earnings March 0.2% 0.1% 3 pm Consumer credit Feb. -- $14 bln
Gonna buy this fugger with what I make from this Trump rally.
All the Best ROY!!!!
I'll stop by and have beer. Bout $6 million short so we got some work to do.
happy easter/resurrection day to Roy and Josh and all SBR posters!
let's hope for a nice lift from the market this week!!
Could be rough tomorrow. Trade war looming continuing to weight down markets.
BREAKING: China says it will impose tariffs on 128 products from the United States in response to Trump's trade measures against it.
— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) April 1, 2018
Yep. Futures off 50.
I think both are positioning but it won't help the market short term.
If a true continued trade war happens, that's 15-20% off the markets from current. Only maybe 2-3% is priced in. Trump on the brink of doing lasting damage. I still think he'll have to back off (or he's impeached), but who knows.
Impeached? I try not to mix liberal fantasy with investing.
15% to 20% is too much. But the market could overreact. There isn't 15% of anyones profit coming from exports to China and our tariffs on them will actually help US companies so don't see a lot there. Just becomes a reason not to buy/ excuse to sell.
That story will be over right after the open. All eyes will turn towards qtrly reports. I bot a little SPY in the after market now, it's -.72. I think folks are going to realize these tariffs are background noise. It's not the real show. Real Market opens higher is my guess.
Sounds like a lot, 128 products but it's a measly $3 billion and that's after we hit them with $60 billion if I recall correctly. This is a face saving move but won't have much affect.The decision to target $3 billion in U.S. imports is significant, but it's widely seen as a drop in the ocean given the size of the bilateral trading relationship. U.S. goods exported to China in 2016 totaled $115.6 billion, according to official data.
China's retaliation is "a statement of intent ... but it's not an escalation in our opinion," Steve Brice, chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered Private Bank, told CNBC on Monday.
That isn't the point. It's the follow-on effects. It's the inflation and the effects therefrom.
Market has rallied from down 88 to down 15 so we'll see.
The tariffs are a tax and we remember from the tax cut debates taxes add costs. Which is why you supported them ~joke~
What we know of is immaterial. But if the market senses this is the beginning of some sort of perpetual trade war then yes, we could be on square one of an ugly bear market.
Trump doesn't want a bear market 6 months from the midterms. So he won't go there.
Maybe. That's the conventional thinking still. But when is he known to back down? China is not backing down.
Futures down slightly, but SPY currently green, DIA off slightly.
tech still getting slammed so the nasdaq is down about 30 pts premarket
agree. and they don't have to. if anyone has to here it is us -- trump might back down behind closed doors but we all know he will not do it publicly and show weakness. we needs lots of continued leaks that china is negotiating with us behind closed doors and it is moving in the right direction
Wish I could say I thought tech would snap out of their funk.
This feels like it could last for a while.
yea man i think i'm in for the long hall mainly due to AMZN, FB and AAPL, all for reasons we are well aware. (live and learn i guess)
The Trump Effect. Maybe he's doing it on purpose so he can brag when it eventually goes back up.
well he shouldn't be bragging very much since Jan 26th when it comes to the market. many argue that last year's climb was due to the economic policies of the prior president which last 9-10 mos into the next regime according to economists. i am not here to make political statements because i always like some things about all presidents and some things i dislike, but the clear hard on that Trump has for china and for rich guy bezos are backfiring
Roy and Josh don't bail on me now! it is worry time and i need some support!!
All good. Sometimes you are the hammer sometimes the nail.
Did not expect a sharp sell off on the first day of trading for the 2nd qtr. Broke right through technical resistance.
May be some room on GLD to the upside but maybe the safest place to be is mildly long and the rest just laying on the sideline. I still think the money will be made on the upside but going to be some healing first.
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