NEW Streak for the Cash

**lordswing** · 11-16-10, 09:43 PM

i grossly underestimated how long a NCAAF 1st Half lists

**yisman** · 11-17-10, 01:10 AM

Really popular picks keep crashing and burning this month, meaning the race for the 100K is wide open and anyone starting now has a more reasonable shot than they normally would.

Gonzaga is the latest to wipe out the leaderboard.

In the two pools I'm in, it doesn't mean so much because no one has been able to do much this month. In the two groups combined, there's only one winning streak on Gonzaga (I don't count a W1 as a "streak").

Gonzaga is a huge SftC pick in general, routinely getting 90% or more of pickers.

This time especially, because they were at home and favored by 6.5. Over 97%.

**losturmarbles** · 11-17-10, 09:52 AM

San Diego State for some reason does really well against the spread. I remember betting them plenty of times last year where the line would move against me and they still win. Same thing happened yesterday. I bet them at +4.5 +100 early in the day, then again later at +5.5. Close to game time you could've found them at +6.5.

**Optional** · 11-17-10, 10:28 AM

This game is starting to make me lose confidence in my punting ability. :\

Hoping the home teams in soccer will help me over the .300 mark for the month.

**yisman** · 11-17-10, 11:51 AM

marbles, yeah, I mentioned that.

Gonzaga was -6.5 when I checked the line around 10 PM or so.

**revnecro1273** · 11-17-10, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by yisman

marbles, yeah, I mentioned that.

Gonzaga was -6.5 when I checked the line around 10 PM or so.

curse of the high 90 percenters

**yisman** · 11-17-10, 05:13 PM

South Africa was the rare opportunity to take a heavy fave without everyone on SftC being on it and it failed.

**yisman** · 11-17-10, 05:55 PM

Had USA not won, I'd be going with Mississippi.

Instead, I have to take LeBron.

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 12:23 AM

not sure where espn gets their numbers... 79.5 first half total? think the only team that would get a first half total of that magnitude would be vmi or grinnel college...the over/under for the game is 142...haven't seen first half line yet, but would imagine it would be around 68

**yisman** · 11-18-10, 01:45 AM

the half totals are often way off. Someone is making them up, and they're not very good at it.

The totals for halves in college football have been off consistently.

**losturmarbles** · 11-18-10, 03:34 AM

Always bet toward the sftc lean on those totals. It didn't work out on last night's late 2H total, but it's been hitting pretty regular.

**lordswing** · 11-18-10, 06:23 AM

i'm not sure the 1H totals are "off," they just don't change accordingly when well respected gamblers hit the shit out of them

there's no doubt in my mind the SM ventures off to actual gambling sites to get his numbers, he just can't change them when a NCAAB total moves 10+points from the opening line

**losturmarbles** · 11-18-10, 09:15 AM

... every book I have money at is scared to put up the ncaab totals so far... theyll probably wait until an hour before tipoff.

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by lordswing

i'm not sure the 1H totals are "off," they just don't change accordingly when well respected gamblers hit the shit out of them

there's no doubt in my mind the SM ventures off to actual gambling sites to get his numbers, he just can't change them when a NCAAB total moves 10+points from the opening line

they are off quite a bit...like with barcelona/lakers game last month...lakers 15 or more? the line was 3...and lakers lost su

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

Always bet toward the sftc lean on those totals. It didn't work out on last night's late 2H total, but it's been hitting pretty regular.

actually the opposite is true

**yisman** · 11-18-10, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by lordswing

i'm not sure the 1H totals are "off," they just don't change accordingly when well respected gamblers hit the shit out of them

there's no doubt in my mind the SM ventures off to actual gambling sites to get his numbers, he just can't change them when a NCAAB total moves 10+points from the opening line

The half totals are way off.

The full game stuff is posted according to odds. That goes for sides and of course for any full game totals that get posted.

Halftime stuff is not.

NCAAB half lines are not even up when props get posted, so you know just from that that they're making it up.

But that also goes for NCAAF. Second half lines are easy to approximate, and SftC is consistently 2-4 points off.

This Davidson game is stretching on forever. It's a blowout, but both teams keep fouling for no apparent reason.

The start time for Nebraska went from 1:30 to 2 and it's not going to start until around 2:15, most likely. I took 2 point FG.

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by yisman

The half totals are way off.

The full game stuff is posted according to odds. That goes for sides and of course for any full game totals that get posted.

Halftime stuff is not.

NCAAB half lines are not even up when props get posted, so you know just from that that they're making it up.

But that also goes for NCAAF. Second half lines are easy to approximate, and SftC is consistently 2-4 points off.

This Davidson game is stretching on forever. It's a blowout, but both teams keep fouling for no apparent reason.

The start time for Nebraska went from 1:30 to 2 and it's not going to start until around 2:15, most likely. I took 2 point FG.

nebraska game was never going to start at 130....they are playing on the same floor, so there would be like 20 to 30 minutes in between games

**losturmarbles** · 11-18-10, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by revnecro1273

actually the opposite is true

I don't think you understood what I was saying. I'm talking about real bets using the real line.

e.g. today's 1h real line was o/u 67. sftc listed 79.5. result of the game 1h total:71

If you did understand what I was saying but still disagree, then whatever... your loss.

It would probably be better to keep it on the DL anyway.

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

I don't think you understood what I was saying. I'm talking about real bets using the real line.

e.g. today's 1h real line was o/u 67. sftc listed 79.5. result of the game 1h total:71

If you did understand what I was saying but still disagree, then whatever... your loss.

It would probably be better to keep it on the DL anyway.

yeah i guess i didn't understand it...and yeah you are right...they have been hitting...euroleague pt totals are usually off and the actual line usually hit

**yisman** · 11-18-10, 05:17 PM

I forgot to check back before the 5 PM pick, but I would've considered taking under 9.5 1H with my W4.

Barnes had 22 points in two games and was only projected for 13.4 by Accuscore for the game.

He started out very fast though, and it looks like he'll top 10 in the first half. 73.1% took the over.

MYRICKSWINE (11/18/2010 at 5:13 PM)
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Wow, 8pts in the first 4 min, 30 sec !!! This will unlock soon with the over !!! 2 more pts is all folks

**lordswing** · 11-18-10, 07:28 PM

he had 19 in the 1H i think, i would've picked a loser as well

i'm on w. kentucky, this "middle" will not work out for me at all

**yisman** · 11-18-10, 07:32 PM

why wouldn't it? +5 and then taking Minny to win?

I'm taking Minnesota. If they win, no more picks tonight.

**lordswing** · 11-18-10, 07:40 PM

just saying it's got no shot to hit

/everthepessimist

**yisman** · 11-18-10, 09:32 PM

I was initially rooting for Miami, but I got a bunch of off lines on the Bears from Bodog.

Go Chicago.

(got -2.5 when the line was -4.5, etc.)

funny thing is their MLs were basically in line, but the spreads were off.

people are missing out. You often hear how Bodog is easily beatable because they're a square book...

That's true, but getting an extra half point or so is nothing compared to what you can sometimes get in live betting.

**revnecro1273** · 11-18-10, 09:43 PM

weird...the higher percentages won today in all match ups thus far except for 1

**lordswing** · 11-18-10, 09:50 PM

illionois and texas +4 -110 is so going to be deja vu

**yisman** · 11-19-10, 12:17 PM

Probably going to take college football tonight.

Either first half or full game.

**lordswing** · 11-19-10, 12:37 PM

going to be playing catch up all day

third time's the charm for these "middles"

**Cabo** · 11-19-10, 12:40 PM

This by far is my worst month ever in this, I just can't seem to get anything going.

**yisman** · 11-19-10, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by Cabo

lordswing/Yisman/Cabo - Yeah, we are just tearing it up in our little three way challange. Not even a streak of 2 yet.

Originally posted by yisman

I'm having a banner month! No winning streak yet, and I've made 16 picks. I already have an L5 and an L6, though. Shouldn't that get me some kind of prize? cabo, lordswing, and myself are a combined 8-27. That's quality.

We're a combined 9 over now!

**lordswing** · 11-20-10, 11:55 AM

go panthers

don't know where to find the #s on how often that 1H ties, so leaving it alone

**SamWise** · 11-20-10, 11:56 AM

good luck

**lordswing** · 11-21-10, 03:48 PM

i'm really praying for some late steam on these 4pm games, I would usually hit up the 9ers easily but the Bucs/Freeman worry me

**lordswing** · 11-21-10, 04:05 PM

9ers up to -210, that'll do it for me

**losturmarbles** · 11-21-10, 04:58 PM

I always seem to pick the wrong 1pm game to end before the 4pm games start.

And **** you St. Pierre (Panthers QB). 2 pick 6s in the last 5 mins