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The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund is a contrarian market tracking fund and therefore one can not exactly analyize their own capping with the same market force comparisons.
That said, there are many market tracking funds in the KVB Family of Funds that can be used in addition to one's own capping.
Here's the latest KVB MLB Contrarian Fund report and market outlook...
We've been looking at the MLB Contrarian markets and it's tracking Contrarian Fund and I mentioned that not all buy and sell signals have been roses in the games that follow them. We need to add other information to decide which signals are likely to give us the best results when we act or not act on them.
I know I've mentioned getting into EMA's but let's take the same type of technicals and not only zoom out for further signals, but also look at them as support and even resistance levels.
Here's the main 2020 Fund chart. I think we see a pullback/sideway market until we begin a take off in the playoffs. Last year we boomed in the playoffs and the signals were there. I think the market is ramping up for us again to enter the post season.
The first yellow highlight, on the left, is meant to show how resistance at the SMA 50 turns into support. The second highlight, the middle one, is meant to point out not only the lines crossing each other, but the support that is provided. The 50 crosses over the 100 and the 20 crosses that 50 and you see it's been an up market since.
The final yellow highlight, on the right is meant to show support at SMA 100 and the bounce off for a sharp rise. Note that it's the same level as the other highlighted support...
To get the backbone chart we needed to add some plays, going back to last years markets. Again we see suport at crossing lines lead to a rise in the first highlight and a bounce of of SMA 100 before the sharp rise.
Also note that the SMA 50 has crossed over the SMA 100, are we ramping up for a strong contrarian post season?
Finally, lets look at last year's chart.
Again, left to right, we see SMA 50 turn from resistance to support and the next two are meant to highlight support off of SMA 50. Notice after that last highlight's second support test, it rises, then pulls back to SMA 100 for a bounce. The bounce is important because while the SMA 20 was riding high SMA 50 was just about to cross SMA 100.
Next thing you know it's a runaway playoff market...
We can turn this game of checkers into a game of chess if we look at the right things and understand them from a market perspective...
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I want to avoid any confusion here.
The Contrarian Fund Backbone plays are a subset of Contrarian Fund plays. Every play is in the main chart, 161 plays. Of those 161 plays, 77 of them are backbone plays.
To get a 100 play simple moving average and some data for it relative to the 50 I had to add plays from the end of last year. I mention that above.
Here is the current 2020 season to date chart for the backbone plays. Interestingly, in the post above you can see a near bounce of of SMA 20, right before the current win streak in the chart.
That bounce hits the SMA 10 on the nose...
That streak is part of the reason the outlook is for a pullback and sideways market before a post season push. If you look at the main chart, we are in the sideways market I predicted but we have also generated a buy signal with the last play made.
This, and the analysis above, contribute to the current overall postive outlook of playing the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund triggers now...
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trending up from what I can seeComment -
No need
To stalk
Stick
To your planComment -
keep at it crusherComment -
This is one of the most technical guys I know but then other times he thinks he’s a mobster it’s really bizarre what an interesting characterComment -
Great MovieComment -
Been thinking about a new show for the SBR Forum Gold.
I'm going to call it "KVB's High!"
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Gold, will you record the intro?
You just need to keep saying "KVB's High"...
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This thread needs more pussy
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Indeed, the Forecat has been busy...
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It's cool, my office added a cute dog to the team to help balance things out...
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Thread is heating up now.Comment -
Here are the last two reports for the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund.
Our market direction and predictions have so far been right on but we are testing some direction now.
Here is the summary after Wed...
And here we are updated after yesterday...Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 169 plays with links to the plays...
Here's the main chart. As expected, our sideways and slight pullback has come. This time though, we fell through SMA 20. The yellow line on the chart shows how we have stopped at the latest resistance and the orange line implies a trend that would continue if we bounce from here. No bounce here and we could see a plummet to -15 units.913 23-Sep MIL +155 -1 917 MIA +153 -1 Wed -2 July -2.42 August -11.34 Sept 1-17 2.96 Week 10 -0.4 Mon 2.38 Tue -1.54 Total -12.36
The outlook has remained postive overall and if you notice we are hugging the band so this 3 game losing streak may be shortlived.
The negative here is that the upside from here in the main fund may also be mitigated by small pullback and sideways market in the backbone fund. That mitigation could help lead to weakness and contribute to a fall through the trend...
We'll just keep walking the walk here......
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 172 plays with links to each play...
957 24-Sep NYY -106 -1 963 BAL +146 1.46 965 DET +151 -1 Thu -0.54 July -2.42 August -11.34 Sept 1-17 2.96 Week 10 -0.4 Mon 2.38 Tue -1.54 Wed -2 Total -12.90
Looks another volatile drop and we're at those lines I drew last time and testing support and testing our trends...
To give an idea, as we enter this reange of support we've see through the season, you can see where the SMA 50 and SMA 100 come into play.
This pullback ans sideways action was predicted, we might see a bounce soon...
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You got to be a scientist understand thisComment -
No Gold, that's why I think I'll do a video series.
Just look at the blue units line, and look where it is bouncing and supporting off of the other lines in the charts.
We could hit a free fall here, but I think we bounce and trend upwards.
Let's see what triggers for today.
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KVB you can sell a 84 Chevy with no engine for $25,000Comment -
Here's last night's report...
Seattle, a +183 play last night, took OAK to extra innings with a 0-0 game, evenntually losing in 10 innings 3-1....The predicted pull back continues into this sell signal as we approach the playoffs. Had Seattle won tonight in extra innings, at better than 1.8, this chart would look very healthy. Can't help but think we had an adjustment on that game.
I'll keep those same lines up for this chart...
It was interesting game, with no score until late, after everything else had begun.
Here's the macro chart if Seattle had won the game last night...
It was a pinnacle point with that game. I suppose it could have gone either way, and instead of the SMA 100 bounce, it went to -15, where I used support to predict that as the next stop.
So what's next? Well we've had our pullback, our sideways market, so I do want to remain positive as we head to playoffs. But realisitcally, we are in a sell signal and have given up some support.
The positives are that volitilty is up and if you notice drops like these lead to sharp turnaronds. The negative is something I mentioned a couple of days ago...
The problem here is that we've had the weakness, but no backbone plays to contribute. So as the main Fund might try to bounce at this point, we might still see a backbone play pullback, sending the main chart a little more sideways.
I'm considering a video series to not only go over the cyclical chart tracking Funds but the markets in general, with basic trends and expectations.
If you anyone thinks they want to see something like that, let me know. Would it be worth it? I think it would and it would help to concentrate the analysis into single daily threads.
There have been no MLB Contrarian Fund triggers today.
The KVB NCAAF Contrarian Fund is currently 4-0 ATS, we'll get into that Fund later, likely using past charts to form analysis.
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KVB your a slick snake oil salesman
Good workComment -
Make a videoComment -
Here we are after the single Pitt play saturday.
An expected bounce off 15...
Today's plays...
The outlook does remain positive as we are in the sideway market that was predicted and we haven't seen a backbone trigger since 9/22. Backbone plays are 37-43 for +8.87 units.
We are currently in "sell" signal phase and we are approaching the end of the season, running out of market. Last year there were 674 plays, 17 playoff plays.
This year we are at 177 plays.
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If you can read a chart good possible to make money of the swingsComment -
Can't say we didn't see the bounce coming in the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund.
The regular season is over.
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 177 plays with links...
Here's the chart. We got our bounce to keep us in the range as well as above the SMA 20 but the regular season is over.913 27-Sep CHC +145 1.45 926 ARI -109 0.92 Sun 2.37 July -2.42 August -11.34 Sept 1-17 2.96 Week 10 -0.4 Mon 2.38 Tue -1.54 Wed -2 Thu -0.54 Fri -2 Sat 1.6 Total -10.93
Backbone plays finished the regualar season +8.87 units.
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8 units is always a solid seasonComment
