CFL 2018 Thread

[Hngkng]

Let me help Toronto with meeting questions this week:
what is a defence?
should we punt if we get the ball inside the opponents 20 yard line?
why can’t we get a first down when it’s 3rd and inches?
do check down passes really work when you’re down by 20 in the second half?
how do we make Montreal look like their offense has Tom Brady operating it?

[Hngkng]

I'm on Ottawa +7.5.
These 2 teams match up too well, -7.5 for Calgary is too much.

[KVB]

I was just working on this.

That early season stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Ottawa's 23 points.

That's right at the spread but calls for an Under and we've already seen the early 57.5 come down to 56.5.

Those are the numbers, it's still early season but that's about all I've looked at this week so far.

I agree that we should see a good matchup and I think that Calgary will have to slip in form at one point.

Good Luck HngKng!

[KVB]

...That early season stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Ottawa's 23 points.

That's right at the spread but calls for an Under and we've already seen the early 57.5 come down to 56.5...

Here are the rest of this week’s stacking forecasts for the early season, as I have them right now.

It shows Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg’s 24 points. That spread is also right at the market and the Total is a bit Under the offered line except this time the line has risen from the early 54.5 to 55.5

In the second game Friday it shows Edmonton winning with 30 points to BC’s 23 or 24 points. Once again, the market spread is right at the stacking forecast and this time it is the same for the Total.

On Saturday the stacking forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 13 points. Even with the 10.5 point spread, the prediction is Saskatchewan ATS while the market Total at 45.5 is quite a bit below the forecast. Saskatchewan’s QB, Collaros, is listed as questionable with a concussion so there could be a change here in line or prediction, but I don’t foresee much.

So the lines overall seem pretty close when compared to the stacking forecast until we get to the swing game with, you guessed it, Montreal.

I’m sure there will be more to add on my end, but that’s what I have for week 3 right now.

Toronto doesn’t play this week and I see Ricky Ray listed as questionable with a head injury (does not say concussion). Current reports are that he will miss significant time due to a neck injury and he was released from the hospital just today. He will still undergo tests and there is no timeline. While in the hospital he had feeling in his extremities and no concussion symptoms.

[Hngkng]

Ray is out for a significant amount of time.
Sacked Collaros won’t play this week vs Montreal.

[Coolcanuck79]

On Ottawa +7.5 pretty big this week as well.

[jjgold]

This is strictly for Canadian gamblers no one else should be betting this

[Coolcanuck79]

This is strictly for Canadian gamblers no one else should be betting this

Nothing to see here. Go back to losing $$ on MLB.

[icon]

Nothing to see here. Go back to losing $$ on MLB.

I heard that at one time JJ was an entertaining poster. Now all he does is troll the forum with his tired schtick. Sad really. Time for Mr JJ to retire from posting.

[KVB]

Ray is out for a significant amount of time.
Sacked Collaros won’t play this week vs Montreal.

Is Sacked Collaros out for sure? I still see him as questionable but sometimes CFL news takes a while to get south of the border...

Let me know and I'll also chime in when I see a change.

[KVB]

Also, I think I made a mistake in the early season stacking forecast posted earlier. I think the difference in point margin between each team is a little more than I thought, which could result in some more discrepancy with the market. The raw scores may be shifted slightly, but that can have bigger effect on the adjusted scores.

Let me work on it.

[KVB]

This is strictly for Canadian gamblers no one else should be betting this

He used to say stuff like this...

Lotta good information in this thread keep it up

Maybe the info isn't as good.

[Hngkng]

Is Sacked Collaros out for sure? I still see him as questionable but sometimes CFL news takes a while to get south of the border...

Let me know and I'll also chime in when I see a change.

Yes he is. I’m in Saskatchewan, head coach already confined him out. Bridge to start.

[Coolcanuck79]

The under certainly looks good now at 45.5

[KVB]

Yes he is. I’m in Saskatchewan, head coach already confined him out. Bridge to start.

Seeing that too, he's out indefinitely with a concussion.

Lulay
Collaros
Ray
Nichols

All out indefinitely, all QBs.

[Hngkng]

Doctors advised Ray to not play this year.

[KVB]

Doctors advised Ray to not play this year.

Last year, after winning the Cup, he told reporters that he was seriously considering retiring. I think he's about 38.

I don't think he's going to take another CFL snap. I'd bet on it.

He shouldn't play again, he should get healthy and enjoy retirement.

[Hngkng]

Last year, after winning the Cup, he told reporters that he was seriously considering retiring. I think he's about 38.

I don't think he's going to take another CFL snap. I'd bet on it.

He shouldn't play again, he should get healthy and enjoy retirement.

I'll be shocked if he came back to play again, sad way to see such a great career end.

Anthony Calvillo the all time passing leader had his career end due to injury too. I still remember that game 5 years ago.

[KVB]

CFL is just brutal to QBs, and I don't feel like it's a specific game mechanic in CFL with the exception of the larger field and longer time for some routes to develop.

Otherwise, maybe CFL needs an offensive line revolution. Maybe it is specific to CFL in that the run game is just less of a go to than the pass because of the number of downs.

Whatever it is, it should be looked at a little closer.

[KVB]

Here are some revisions to the early season stacking forecasts.

...That early season stacking forecast has Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Ottawa's 23 points.
That's right at the spread but calls for an Under and we've already seen the early 57.5 come down to 56.5...

Calgary 30, Ottawa 22 or 23…same but one less point on the Total.

…shows Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg’s 24 points. That spread is also right at the market and the Total is a bit Under the offered line except this time the line has risen from the early 54.5 to 55.5…

Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 22 or 23….Here Hamilton is now predicted ATS and 2 or 3 points have been added to the total, closer to the opener, but we’ve seen the market Total rise to 58.

…shows Edmonton winning with 30 points to BC’s 23 or 24 points. Once again, the market spread is right at the stacking forecast and this time it is the same for the Total.

Edmonton 31 or 33, BC 20…Here Edmonton is predicted to cover the -6.5 spread and an UNDER is predicted as the forecast dropped a point and the market has risen to 55.5.

…has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Montreal’s 13 points. Even with the 10.5 point spread, the prediction is Saskatchewan ATS while the market Total at 45.5 is quite a bit below the forecast …

Saskatchewan 40 or more, Montreal 10…The predicted Total dropped 3 full points but still remains over the posted Total.

So there will be a little more discrepancy in the early season stacking forecast than I originally posted for week 3. Also note that the first two games have the same prediction, look for them to have opposite results, especially ATS, probably moneyline, and possibly the Total as well.

[Hngkng]

Otherwise, maybe CFL needs an offensive line revolution. Maybe it is specific to CFL in that the run game is just less of a go to than the pass because of the number of downs.

Whatever it is, it should be looked at a little closer.

Many people feel that it is because of the offensive line. Because you need so many Canadian starters, teams like using 3 or 4 Canadians on the OL. The issue is most Canadian play at Canadian universities, and most DL are Americans. The level of football they play in during university in Canada, and US does not compare.

[CanuckG]

Bombers +4 look like a gift this week.

[Coolcanuck79]

Well, I have Ottawa +9 and I think I am going to scoop up Calgary -4 2h and nail this middle!

[Coolcanuck79]

Bombers +4 look like a gift this week.

Definitely like Winnipeg +4 and the under in the Montreal game.

[Hngkng]

Tough 4th quarter collapse.

[Coolcanuck79]

Glad I took the CGY -4 2h. Yikes. Thought we had this. Still time.

[Coolcanuck79]

Winnipeg looks even better now that it is +4.5. Not sure what to make of the total going from 55.5 to 59. Everyone on the over but I feel the line is just too high now and not worth the wager.

[Hngkng]

Here are some revisions to the early season stacking forecasts.
Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 22 or 23….Here Hamilton is now predicted ATS and 2 or 3 points have been added to the total, closer to the opener, but we’ve seen the market Total rise to 58.

I liked Hamilton at the start, and will stick to it.
Simply it is the June Jones coaching staff that I like too much.

I have been cold, so this may be good for the Winnipeg backers!
All the best to you all!

[KVB]

Winnipeg looks even better now that it is +4.5. Not sure what to make of the total going from 55.5 to 59. Everyone on the over but I feel the line is just too high now and not worth the wager.

Early season CFL, possible big bets just moving that line. It's hard to tell.

[KVB]

Here are some revisions to the early season stacking forecasts…

..Calgary 30, Ottawa 22 or 23…same but one less point on the Total…

..Hamilton 30, Winnipeg 22 or 23….Here Hamilton is now predicted ATS and 2 or 3 points have been added to the total, closer to the opener, but we’ve seen the market Total rise to 58...

...Also note that the first two games have the same prediction, look for them to have opposite results, especially ATS, probably moneyline, and possibly the Total as well…

I don’t want to place too much emphasis on the early season forecast, but…

Last night’s result was a Favorite and the UNDER. The forecast really did not have a spread prediction. It was correct against the Moneyline and the Total.

We can’t bounce the ATS result. To bounce the moneyline, it would be the upset and to try and bounce the Total is to take the OVER, a line that has moved significantly.

This is interesting, because it should be noted the while some Totals have pushed an opening or closing line, it is extremely rare for a CFL Total to middle.

It just doesn’t happen. It didn’t happen in 2017, can’t find a certain 2016 record right now (oops), didn’t happen in 2015, and in 2013 and 2014 it didn’t happen in the first part of the season. I apparently can’t find the second half of those seasons. In those scattered 5 years of quick search, I couldn’t find a single instance of a Total middling.

It just doesn’t happen but as lines get sharper, we might see an uptick in that result. It would also serve to show us that the market’s line error is tightening with Totals.

I’m passing on the OVER here and I’m passing on the upset moneyline. That Total is a big move and the lack of a spread prediction last night just makes things to ambiguous for a market call.

Good Luck guys.

[Hngkng]

Going to do Edmonton -3.5 first half

[Coolcanuck79]

Going to do Edmonton -3.5 first half

I like it!!

[KVB]

Well that forecast is right on everything so far, with the exception of no bet on yesterday's spread.

Now it calls for the Favorite and Under, again.

Oh boy!

Tomorrow it calls for the Favorite and the OVER with Montreal in the swing game.

I will not trying to counter forecasts with bold plays very often in this thread, instead, I will be pressing the forecasts with few exceptions.

It's early season and obviously the forecast popped this week, I don't think I'm buying in on the high.

Passing, but if you take the favorite or under, you know what you've done.

[jjgold]

KVB stop double talking like a used car salesman

[KVB]

Pay attention Mr. Gold, I'm giving you crack forecasts and sharp warnings.