Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**guitarjosh** · 03-01-20, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Roy and Josh.

I believe there is a 60% chance of what you are suggesting—no recession and the market coming back to the highs this year. On Monday after the close, I would have said 80% chance.

I would hate to see the pain from a recession/bear market. Lost jobs, the over-leveraged getting washed out. But in some ways, I am just like “let’s go already”. We are due, and I have a lot of cash to deploy. Tear off the bandaid

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

60%? OK then i have a great deal for you... 2000 point bet at 50/50 odds

you get that DIA hits a new high at any point during 2020, i get that it doesn't

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

I dont see mathematically how the market recovers this year if companies miss 1st qtr earning + the ripple effect is misses 2,3,4 and lower yearly guidance.

Everything will be revalued and it'll take more than 1 great qtr to get the money back in, plus we haven't seen the ripple effect of margin from last week. Might see more selling just to cover...

Don't forget central bank accommodation. The market from early October to 2 weeks ago basically went up with the Fed balance sheet expansions. CME Fed watch tool is expecting a half point rate cut by the end of the month, and another quarter point cut by late April.

**Madison** · 03-01-20, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by RoyBacon

Very cool!

That was one of the most powerful buying sprees ever in the last 10 minutes. I'll look at it closer later.

We were down -870 with 10 mins to go and finished down -356. 500 points in 10 minutes??? WTF???

Powell saying he'd support the market. With what??

**Madison** · 03-01-20, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by grease lightnin

Roy and Josh.

I believe there is a 60% chance of what you are suggesting—no recession and the market coming back to the highs this year. On Monday after the close, I would have said 80% chance.

I would hate to see the pain from a recession/bear market. Lost jobs, the over-leveraged getting washed out. But in some ways, I am just like “let’s go already”. We are due, and I have a lot of cash to deploy. Tear off the bandaid

We are overemployed for sure. Stimulus and deficits will be our downfall. We'll need a tourniquet if the bandaid comes off.

**Madison** · 03-01-20, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Don't forget central bank accommodation. The market from early October to 2 weeks ago basically went up with the Fed balance sheet expansions. CME Fed watch tool is expecting a half point rate cut by the end of the month, and another quarter point cut by late April.

And a gun without bullets is ???

**guitarjosh** · 03-01-20, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Madison

And a gun without bullets is ???

I don't consider dropping interest rates to .5% by the end of the year and buying hundreds-of-billions of assets "no bullets".

**milwaukee mike** · 03-01-20, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I don't consider dropping interest rates to .5% by the end of the year and buying hundreds-of-billions of assets "no bullets".

i can't imagine someone doing a project at 2.5% interest (just because the interest is cheaper) in a terrible economy, when they wouldn't do it at 3% in a good economy.

and are those people cancelling trips to disney world going to say "now i'm gonna go, the fed funds rate is .5% lower!"

**guitarjosh** · 03-01-20, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by milwaukee mike

i can't imagine someone doing a project at 2.5% interest (just because the interest is cheaper) in a terrible economy, when they wouldn't do it at 3% in a good economy.

and are those people cancelling trips to disney world going to say "now i'm gonna go, the fed funds rate is .5% lower!"

Or people looking to buy a house or a car will say, "Now I'm gonna buy, the interest rates are under 3%!

**grease lightnin** · 03-01-20, 05:43 PM

The fed wields an incredible amount of economic power.

I think they got punked by Trump into lowering interest rates last year. The extension on the expansion made him look good, but imo it only prolonged the inevitable and probably made it worse.

**MinnesotaFats** · 03-01-20, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Or people looking to buy a house or a car will say, "Now I'm gonna buy, the interest rates are under 3%!

A lot of people just lost 15% of their down payment thou

That could be another thing to watch for...new loan applicants dropping expedentally

If housing is down, and oil is down then there's no need to jump back in just yet. Why not wait 6 weeks and see how bad 1st qtr is.

Many companies may have missed anyway and this gives false cover, might see another 5% decline headed into mid April after analysis then reposition and buy

**HockeyRocks** · 03-01-20, 05:59 PM

NO cuts are needed now. Talk about a 2-3 day bounce and that's it...The Fed has barely any powder left in their pistol as it is...

Why not wait until we really need it..

**homie1975** · 03-01-20, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

A lot of people just lost 15% of their down payment thou

That could be another thing to watch for...new loan applicants dropping expedentally

If housing is down, and oil is down then there's no need to jump back in just yet. Why not wait 6 weeks and see how bad 1st qtr is.

Many companies may have missed anyway and this gives false cover, might see another 5% decline headed into mid April after analysis then reposition and buy

They didn't lose 15% of their down payment if they currently own a property and they want to sell it and us those proceeds toward the new property.

**MinnesotaFats** · 03-01-20, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

They didn't lose 15% of their down payment if they currently own a property and they want to sell it and us those proceeds toward the new property.

In the process of "moving up" one must sell their starter home to 1st time buyers, many of whom would liquidate or borrow against investment accounts to do so.

So very few people these days actually have the ability to save up 25k in cash

**MinnesotaFats** · 03-01-20, 06:23 PM

Market to tank at open once again

Look for another 7% drop this week

**guitarjosh** · 03-01-20, 06:34 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

A lot of people just lost 15% of their down payment thou

That could be another thing to watch for...new loan applicants dropping expedentally

If housing is down, and oil is down then there's no need to jump back in just yet. Why not wait 6 weeks and see how bad 1st qtr is.

Many companies may have missed anyway and this gives false cover, might see another 5% decline headed into mid April after analysis then reposition and buy

Or they gained if their savings was in bonds.

Originally posted by HockeyRocks

NO cuts are needed now. Talk about a 2-3 day bounce and that's it...The Fed has barely any powder left in their pistol as it is...

Why not wait until we really need it..

Most of the curve is under the Fed funds rate, there needs to be a cut so we don't really need it.

**jjgold** · 03-01-20, 10:02 PM

Right now it’s looking like an up day tomorrow

**milwaukee mike** · 03-01-20, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

Or people looking to buy a house or a car will say, "Now I'm gonna buy, the interest rates are under 3%!

either you need a place to live or you don't... and you either need a car or you don't.

interest rates on those things of course matter because of the affordability of the payment, but a lot of auto loans are incentivized to 0 or 1.9% no matter what rates are.

i think the fear of buying near the top of an overheated housing market outweighs the benefits of getting a slightly lower interest rate... rates were dropping in 2008-2010 when the housing market was getting crushed

**keely85** · 03-01-20, 10:54 PM

Who makes purell? Wish I’d been on that a week ago

**chico2663** · 03-02-20, 11:04 AM

bought vivo today. they make test kits for govt.

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 11:14 AM

right now it *appears* to be more than a dead cat bounce, it appears more solid than that.

but one more bit of bad Corona news and that could all go to hell and a handbasket

**chico2663** · 03-02-20, 11:28 AM

bought back in on swks and more pg. both doing well today.

**chico2663** · 03-02-20, 11:50 AM

sold vivo for small profit. have to make up for the 5,000 lost last week.

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by chico2663

sold vivo for small profit. have to make up for the 5,000 lost last week.

don't try to get it all back too fast, Chico. you are a long time investor and you know the drill but we are all humans and prone to emotions. you will get it back, because the market is going to come back and you are also very good, but please don't rush too quickly to extract it back, kind of like forcing game action on the next NFL sunday because the last one or two were really bad. let the action come to you!!

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 02:46 PM

3 more corona deaths near seattle. market has lost half its gains since the news broke

**chico2663** · 03-02-20, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

don't try to get it all back too fast, Chico. you are a long time investor and you know the drill but we are all humans and prone to emotions. you will get it back, because the market is going to come back and you are also very good, but please don't rush too quickly to extract it back, kind of like forcing game action on the next NFL sunday because the last one or two were really bad. let the action come to you!!

kicking myself in ass/ that vir ii gave out and made money on . up another 20 per share.

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

3 more corona deaths near seattle. market has lost half its gains since the news broke

DOW back up over 800 points again

**guitarjosh** · 03-02-20, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

DOW back up over 800 points again

Relatively low volume

**MinnesotaFats** · 03-02-20, 04:14 PM

Today had to be nothing more than auto driven trading

This made 0 sense w China mfg terrible and US production down

Strange to say the least

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 04:19 PM

closed nearly 1300 points up

**homie1975** · 03-02-20, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

Today had to be nothing more than auto driven trading

This made 0 sense w China mfg terrible and US production down

Strange to say the least

and lots of people believe the market was oversold and they saw value

**Madison** · 03-02-20, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by guitarjosh

I don't consider dropping interest rates to .5% by the end of the year and buying hundreds-of-billions of assets "no bullets".

Maybe not short term, but 0 interest rates and billions more likely trillions (I believe it was 4 trillion) must find it's way back out of the market. Evidence 2017/2018 when the FED started selling the QE 3 and trying to rebalance. When the stimulus stops bad things quaranteed to happen. My biggest fear is we inflate our way out.

**Madison** · 03-02-20, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by MinnesotaFats

In the process of "moving up" one must sell their starter home to 1st time buyers, many of whom would liquidate or borrow against investment accounts to do so.

So very few people these days actually have the ability to save up 25k in cash

Truth

**Madison** · 03-02-20, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by keely85

Who makes purell? Wish I’d been on that a week ago

Dude, check out Clorox. I may be wrong but I think Cramer (not that I love him) gave this out a month or so ago.

**Madison** · 03-02-20, 04:42 PM

This is nuts

I sold most everything into and over (mostly over) the course of last week. Tried easing my way back in Sunday and did extremely well, but was hoping to DCA back in slowly. Everything up 5% today, now what to do?

From 1K down Sunday to up 1300 today. What changed? These are crazy times. I suspect a lot of manipulation by institutions??

**chico2663** · 03-02-20, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Dude, check out Clorox. I may be wrong but I think Cramer (not that I love him) gave this out a month or so ago.

LOST my ass on clx

**MinnesotaFats** · 03-02-20, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

and lots of people believe the market was oversold and they saw value

People? No, moves like this are driven by institutional investors and massive amounts of machine driven analysis

I have to believe tomorrow ends -650 to halve this