Best NFL Handicapper

**sports_scores** · 09-19-15, 08:54 PM

Nice work over here guys. I started my own thread because i have something good to share as well

**Slanina** · 09-19-15, 11:01 PM

Below is the consensus for the top 15 finishers last year.

Detroit - 8 selections

Pittsburgh - 7 selections

Cincinnati - 7 selections

Washington - 6 selections

Tampa Bay - 5 selections

Below are the most picked overall:

Pittsburgh - 608 selections

Cincinnati - 499 selections

Baltimore - 476 selections

Arizona - 428 selections

Tennessee - 414 selections

**uup115** · 09-20-15, 01:27 AM

My version of analyzing the SuperContest--->

Ranked in unit of bet size
7 Pittsburgh
5 Detroit
5 Cincinnati
4 Tampa
4 Washington
3 Dallas
3 Houston

Big issues with line movements, every selection espically the top 5 has had a dramatic shift from the contest "stale lines". Any full point movement against or key number (3,7,10) move against will make me cut my risk by 20%. The top 5 teams are all bad at this point and line shopping will be important.

**charcoalbbq** · 09-20-15, 09:19 AM

So what was the record of this DFK guy last year in hilton contest and how is his record so far this year.?

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 09-20-15, 09:21 AM

It's DFL
STANDS FOR DAVID FROST LANE 1 or 2

He did fairly well last year
He won it all the year before he's a good one to follow if you do that sorta thing

**Plopowitz** · 09-20-15, 09:37 AM

Those are David Frohardt Lane's picks... Remember...he personally said he was going to take the Lions every week. Tail with caution. LOL

good luck all!!

**Plopowitz** · 09-20-15, 09:39 AM

Good work !!! Thanks for sharing!!

**charcoalbbq** · 09-20-15, 10:05 AM

I was looking at the hilton lines and they have a lot of lines without the half point....so how do they count the poushed games.

**Slanina** · 09-20-15, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by charcoalbbq

I was looking at the hilton lines and they have a lot of lines without the half point....so how do they count the poushed games.

Win = 1 point
Push = .5 points
Loss = 0 points

**snapperman2** · 09-20-15, 02:45 PM

Good work guys!

**ToPHeR** · 09-20-15, 03:09 PM

penetrating Detroit killed my parlay

**ToPHeR** · 09-20-15, 03:24 PM

328925178 9/20/15 11:29am -$20.00 $0.42 1 Wager(s) Placed 328925178-1 $20.00 $406.78 Loss 5 Team Parlay
Win 9/20/15 1:00pm NFL Football 263 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10½ -130* vs New Orleans Saints
Win 9/20/15 1:00pm NFL Football 266 Pittsburgh Steelers -5½ -118* vs San Francisco 49ers
Loss 9/20/15 1:00pm NFL Football 267 Detroit Lions +3 -125* vs Minnesota Vikings
Win 9/20/15 1:00pm NFL Football 276 Cincinnati Bengals -3 -130* vs San Diego Chargers
Win 9/20/15 1:00pm NFL Football 278 Washington Redskins +3 +105* vs St. Louis Rams

**Ralphie Halves** · 09-20-15, 10:11 PM

I'm convinced. Gonna start round-robinning these suckers starting next week. Good job boys.

**KingHutch** · 09-20-15, 10:26 PM

Nice if you followed the top 15

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 09-20-15, 11:53 PM

How many of the top 15 cappers picked INDY tomorrow night?

**uup115** · 09-21-15, 12:09 AM

Ok, we had an exceptional week 2 with this system. They will not all be this good so lets just enjoy this run...went 5-2 with a 11.4 unit profit.

I had to adjust my ratings (unit) values due to "stale line" movers as noted below from contest lines/actual line. Being conservative with my adjustment for risk cost us a bit of profit today. Total for the season is now 9-4 with +15.9 units profit.

(units)
(rating/adj.rating) (S.C. Line/Real Line) Result
7/5 Pittsburgh -5.5/6 W
5/5 Detroit +3/+3 L
5/5 Cincinnati -3/-3 W
4/4 Tampa +10/+10 W
4/2 Washington +3.5/+3 W
3/4 Dallas +5.5/+7 W
3/3 Houston +3/+3 L

**ToPHeR** · 09-21-15, 05:36 PM

CH Ballers paid picks this week..

Courtesy of across the street.
New England
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Indianapolis(Monday)

**Slanina** · 09-21-15, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

How many of the top 15 cappers picked INDY tomorrow night?

My bad. Havent checked the thread all day. Little late but...

Indy - 2 selections

Jets - 2 selections

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 09-21-15, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by ToPHeR

CH Ballers paid picks this week..

Courtesy of across the street.
New England
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Indianapolis(Monday)

soo were these this past weekends picks or this coming weekends picks

**Slanina** · 09-21-15, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY

soo were these this past weekends picks or this coming weekends picks

Those are this past weekend. He had Indy tonight. Other than that he had a good week.

**KingHutch** · 09-21-15, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Those are this past weekend. He had Indy tonight. Other than that he had a good week.

Do these match with el chignon's picks?

**Slanina** · 09-21-15, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by KingHutch

Do these match with el chignon's picks?

I'll have to double check my notes but I don't believe they did. I don't really pay too much attention to any individual picks. I don't believe any one knows their alias in the SuperContest because theyre now tout after winning the contest last year.

**uup115** · 09-22-15, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by KingHutch

Do these match with el chignon's picks?

Originally posted by ToPHeR

CH Ballers paid picks this week..

Courtesy of across the street.
New England
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Indianapolis(Monday)

EL CHINGON

PIT

DET

CIN

GB

IND

It does not look like them.

**uup115** · 09-22-15, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Below is the consensus for the top 15 finishers last year.

Slanina, are you going to move off last years top 15 at any point this season? I'm going to make an adjustment to my consensus of players at some point but I'm not exactly sure when.

**Slanina** · 09-22-15, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by uup115

Slanina, are you going to move off last years top 15 at any point this season? I'm going to make an adjustment to my consensus of players at some point but I'm not exactly sure when.

I'm definitely open to the idea as well. But only if some are struggling once we're around 7 weeks into the season. If it does come to that I'll make a notation on my posts.

**Slanina** · 09-23-15, 02:06 AM

Had an hour to kill earlier and compared SuperContest results this year and last year. But first is how the top 15 records last year are doing this year. 3 didn't enter or changed their entry name.

8-2 = 1 person
7-3 = 3 persons
6-4 = 4 persons
5-5 = 2 persons
4-6 = 2 persons ---- I believe this is the same person with 2 entries (Same picks both weeks and same record last year)

One of the 3 remaining undefeated entries (Team DHG) actually finished in the top 30 last year with a 53-32 record.

Another top 30 finisher last year with a record of 53-31-1 has started 8-2 this year.

I'm sure I could dig up a few more noteworthy stats but I wasn't on an in depth search.

**mitch51** · 09-23-15, 09:44 AM

Thanks for your work here, Slanina. I think you guys are gonna cash some tickets here.

**jrk** · 09-23-15, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Had an hour to kill earlier and compared SuperContest results this year and last year. But first is how the top 15 records last year are doing this year. 3 didn't enter or changed their entry name.

8-2 = 1 person
7-3 = 3 persons
6-4 = 4 persons
5-5 = 2 persons
4-6 = 2 persons ---- I believe this is the same person with 2 entries (Same picks both weeks and same record last year)

One of the 3 remaining undefeated entries (Team DHG) actually finished in the top 30 last year with a 53-32 record.

Another top 30 finisher last year with a record of 53-31-1 has started 8-2 this year.

I'm sure I could dig up a few more noteworthy stats but I wasn't on an in depth search.

Which top 30 finisher last year started this year 8-2. Thanks brother good info

**Capybara** · 09-23-15, 10:28 AM

Yeah, Slanina and UUP, thanks for your good work in here, keep it up!

No one's been mentioning DFL lately, but think he went 7-3 in week 2? Perhaps our man is about to assert himself as usual.

**uup115** · 09-23-15, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by Capybara

Yeah, Slanina and UUP, thanks for your good work in here, keep it up!

No one's been mentioning DFL lately, but think he went 7-3 in week 2? Perhaps our man is about to assert himself as usual.

And remember as DFL himself stated in this thread he will go with his strongest model on his leading entry and that would be DFL2 this week.

**Slanina** · 09-23-15, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Yeah, Slanina and UUP, thanks for your good work in here, keep it up!

No one's been mentioning DFL lately, but think he went 7-3 in week 2? Perhaps our man is about to assert himself as usual.

I didn't forget the man that started all of this. Although I do ignore Detroit plays because of his "warning" on Twitter. I made Pittsburgh my big play last week. Was a top consensus and he had it as well. Others post his plays here so I don't worry about it.

**Slanina** · 09-23-15, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by jrk

Which top 30 finisher last year started this year 8-2. Thanks brother good info

PhilDeez

**uup115** · 09-23-15, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

I didn't forget the man that started all of this. Although I do ignore Detroit plays because of his "warning" on Twitter. I made Pittsburgh my big play last week. Was a top consensus and he had it as well. Others post his plays here so I don't worry about it.

I took that as more of a joke because I assumed by chance Detroit showed up in his picks by his methods...but i am now rethinking how not funny that was.

**KingHutch** · 09-23-15, 10:48 PM

when are picks usually released? I see the 11am Saturday deadline for picks that exclude TNF

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 09-23-15, 10:51 PM

They don't come out until say late afternoon but watch the opening lines that they placed their picks on its usually off buy a point or two so tread lightly