This is going to sound crazy, but...

**a4u2fear** · 12-08-14, 04:41 PM

Totals

, slowly but surely?
22-24-3 -3.89u

**a4u2fear** · 12-08-14, 04:42 PM

Thanks Buddha, I'll check that out. Stupid Prick contest. I had two huge plays, NYG and CLE, but he took them both, so I played a few totals that I didn't want to, and it burned me.

**a4u2fear** · 12-08-14, 04:43 PM

STL -179

STL u5 +105
CAR u5 -115

Off to dinner, good luck!

**Jayvegas420** · 12-08-14, 05:59 PM

GL

I smell a sweeper ton ight

**a4u2fear** · 12-09-14, 12:35 PM

Teams
23-9, +11.97u

**a4u2fear** · 12-09-14, 12:36 PM

Totals
23-25-3, -3.89u

**Russian Rocket** · 12-09-14, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Teams
23-9, +11.97u

**bihon** · 12-09-14, 03:30 PM

At the moment ML results are much above average, so either a correction or several games with total gain ~ 0 is expected.
For Totals the expectation is exactly the opposite.

So, I would suggest those tailing the picks to play both ML and Totals.

This under condition that the testing calculation and numbers were correct.

**a4u2fear** · 12-09-14, 04:46 PM

CHI -183
LA -201
VAN +117
COL +135

NJ o5 -117
BUF u5 -133
MON u5 +116
TB u5.5 +100
MIN o5.5 +128
SJ u5.5 -125

Good luck.

**buddha** · 12-09-14, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

I had two huge plays, NYG and CLE, but he took them both, so I played a few totals that I didn't want to, and it burned me.

Yeah, I feel you on that. Its hard enough to cap 5 ATS winners in a week without some Prick cokklblokkin' 2 of those, I don't know how it is the rules and all but really theres no reason a 79th place Prick shouldn't be required to have his picks in as soon after lines are up as possible cuz anything other doesn't add anything positive to this contest in this the stretch run, only does the opposite, interjects superhuge DEEP MINUS EV to a contest where you and many others have already Beaten The Prick and all thats left is to beat one another.

Within the final NFL weeks SBR would amplify the excitement and interest in this contest by revealing which games are off the board asap so leaders could have more time to isolate their plays and the contest made to be as much about 'capping skill at CrunchTime as possible.

Plannin' Cleveland as one your 5 plays shows you're in a great place 'cappin'-wise, far from Squaresville, Oakland call the same, sharp, shrewd, brave under these circumstances.

This weeks card should present opportunity to make up some ground as will the final 2 weeks of the season. However you wind up 43-26-1 62% to this point is great and to be in the upper precentile area you are vs. field of 1400 initial entrants, 900 left after the purging of the freeloaders is fantastic.

Some will say I should have kept quiet lest I "jinx" you but that fantastical crap weighed against the potential value of encouragement, the extra little possible bump up to your focus I felt could be gained...I hoped that would outweigh whatever mystical otherworldy superstitious bullshite folks entertain thought of and I hope that you agree or at least will empathize with why I posted.

**a4u2fear** · 12-09-14, 09:48 PM

Sabres suck, can't score, and these good teams keep playing down to them. Let's go Kings, get a fukking goal.

**Russian Rocket** · 12-09-14, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Sabres suck, can't score, and these good teams keep playing down to them. Let's go Kings, get a fukking goal.

fukking disgrace...Sharks, Montreal twice, Tampa Bay...now Kings...who's next? I mean at this point might as well let fkn Buffalo win a Stanley Cup

**Slanina** · 12-09-14, 10:19 PM

How do you not score against Buffalo? Sick joke.

**buddha** · 12-09-14, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

fukking disgrace...Sharks, Montreal twice, Tampa Bay...now Kings...who's next? I mean at this point might as well let fkn Buffalo win a Stanley Cup

Are they treating autofade Buffalo as a night off? These teams? A mid-stride "nap" of sorts?

**Jayvegas420** · 12-10-14, 02:04 AM

Maybe get off the Buffalo fade & start taking home dogs against the spread. They are 78-34.

**buddha** · 12-10-14, 03:04 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

Maybe get off the Buffalo fade & start taking home dogs against the spread. They are 78-34.

Oh Lord help me. I've only ever bet NFL, College Football to a lesser degree and...Postseason Baseball. I assume you're still talkin' about Hockey with your post when I ask what "against the spread" means? No way it means puckline +1.5 eh? I know what it means in football of course but've never heard this term used in regards to Hockey.

**a4u2fear** · 12-10-14, 05:02 PM

Teams
24-12, +8.96u

Totals
26-27-4, -2.70u

Shit night for the teams. It's a marathon, don't forget it.

**a4u2fear** · 12-10-14, 05:03 PM

DET -193

ANH u5.5 -110

Totals making it slowly to even.

**a4u2fear** · 12-11-14, 04:58 PM

Teams
24-13, +7.03u

Totals
27-27-4, -1.70u

**a4u2fear** · 12-11-14, 05:02 PM

CHI -120
PHI -130
LAK -140

CHI o5 -150
WAS o5.5 +120
BUF u5 -106
STL o5.5 -105
WPG o5.5 +111

Remember, on a two day slide for teams, but they will get there. I'm not picking teams out of a hat or by gut feeling. These systems will succeed: OVER THE SEASON, not over a week. There's four months left. Good luck.

**a4u2fear** · 12-11-14, 09:43 PM

2-0 with third game with two goal lead, hopefully 3-0 on teams

sabres winning while being consistently outshot 40-15, if anyone can figure out a system to bet that, you are god

**Slanina** · 12-12-14, 12:23 AM

I counted the over as a loss after the first period on Winnipeg game. That was a nice scoring spree last two periods.

**bihon** · 12-12-14, 04:58 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

sabres winning while being consistently outshot 40-15

Shots/goals ratio (for each team individually)?

**a4u2fear** · 12-12-14, 06:49 AM

Teams
27-13, +10.03u

Totals
29-29-5, -1.65u

**Vinnie Paz** · 12-12-14, 07:02 AM

I didn't read the whole thread but I thought this was taking puck lines?

**SmittyZ28** · 12-12-14, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

2-0 with third game with two goal lead, hopefully 3-0 on teams

sabres winning while being consistently outshot 40-15, if anyone can figure out a system to bet that, you are god

nice hit yesterday buddy

**a4u2fear** · 12-12-14, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

I didn't read the whole thread but I thought this was taking puck lines?

started off that way, but I believe the charts posted show the ML were more profitable. That's why I took that direction. Didn't want to be juicing +1.5

**a4u2fear** · 12-12-14, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by SmittyZ28

nice hit yesterday buddy

**a4u2fear** · 12-12-14, 04:42 PM

PIT -170
LA +116
DET -194
ANH -163

MON u5 +105
DET u5 +106
EDM u5.5 -120

**simonrdr** · 12-12-14, 06:13 PM

I have a quick question. Does your model take into account injuries? That's a lot of juice to pay for a Crosby-less Pens team tonight...

**SlickRick1382** · 12-12-14, 06:53 PM

lots of chalk unfortunately =(

**bihon** · 12-12-14, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

lots of chalk unfortunately =(

What is wrong with square plays if they are EV+?

**Slanina** · 12-12-14, 10:12 PM

2 unit SO. This should be fun.

**Slanina** · 12-12-14, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

2 unit SO. This should be fun.

Doh.

**a4u2fear** · 12-13-14, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

lots of chalk unfortunately =(

Yes, sometimes. We are identifying the team that is most likely to win, even if it costs a high price sometimes. With the NHL, you've got to lay the chalk since it's all about the ML's. If you go to page 1, you will see the PLs do well and you can play those.