LTA's NFL PLays

[GChild]

I just faded myself....BEARS!!!

[Love The Action]

I simply cannot fade Tebow until he @ least loses once.

Gotta trust your own gut. No problem with that

[Krazymojo]

Giants + the points

[Love The Action]

I just faded myself....BEARS!!!

Let's get it G!

[Dexter]

you hate tebow...haha

[rcjiii]

Anyone have any thoughts on Indy Balty unders? Baltimore unders are usually money and indy certainly isn't going to put up big numbers.

[Love The Action]

you hate tebow...haha

Nah, I just don't think he has the physical tools for long term success in the NFL. He will either get hurt or the defensive minds will catch up with him. That's definitely not a popular opinion, but I think it will prove true over time.

[EricZ116]

Don't mean to be a troll, but the key phrase there is 'over time'. You're not going to fare well if you keep fading Tebow this season... Maybe next season.

[Love The Action]

Anyone have any thoughts on Indy Balty unders? Baltimore unders are usually money and indy certainly isn't going to put up big numbers.

Steam on the over. There's no need to bet any game involving Indy because you never know what you're going to get. There's no reason for Balty to keep up the defensive pressure if they are rolling them and Indy could always score some BS td late when no one cares what happens. I think that is a better pass.

[Love The Action]

Don't mean to be a troll, but the key phrase there is 'over time'. You're not going to fare well if you keep fading Tebow this season... Maybe next season.

That's not a troll. So you think Tebow and Denver wins out?

[Dexter]

That's not a troll. So you think Tebow and Denver wins out?

dont worry about tebow. its all about travis tonight

[EricZ116]

No, but I don't think I'd be comfortable betting against him every week like it seems you have been as of late. I've either been riding or passing on Tebow the past few weeks, and that's how I'll continue the season... There's no way I'll be betting against him with some of the ******* miracles he pulls.

[Trivial]

Okay, BOL to all. I am locked.

Bills Over (like LTA)
Bills +7.5
Carolina +3
Titans +3.5
Washington +9
Chicago +3.5
Giants +3.5

I am equally against Mr Bow and Denver. I don't see them going past Chicago's defense just like LTA.

I am on 2u for Washington and Chicago, and 4u for Bills Over, 4u and Bills +7.5.

BOL everyone.

I won't be online until very late tonight. Hosting football today with a bunch of folks.

[Love The Action]

No, but I don't think I'd be comfortable betting against him every week like it seems you have been as of late. I've either been riding or passing on Tebow the past few weeks, and that's how I'll continue the season... There's no way I'll be betting against him with some of the ******* miracles he pulls.

But that's the idea. Everyone is mesmerized by the streak and the ways in which he has won. This is a classic NFL spot to fade the market. Especially when you consider the ways in which Tebow has won. Those are low percentage ways of winning that odds say cannot continue over time. No one can win with such a horrible 3 rd down conversion percentage. That sort of play will catch up to him. The Bears have the sort of defense that can shut this kid down. The Bears are ball-hawkers. How did Tebow do at home against a similarly aggressive defense in Detroit? It wasn't pretty. The defensive minds of this league will eventually figure out that if you stack the box, play off-man coverage with the cb's about 8 yards back and keep the play in front of them, they can prove victorious. If you keep Tebow in front of you, the chances are that he is either going to gain minimal yardage or turn it over. Plus, the athleticism of the Bears defense poses a problem for Tebow today. He has not faced the speed of a Peppers off the edge or a linebacking crew anywhere close to the Bears. Even though the Bears are thin at safety, Peanut Tillman is having a Pro-bowl year. I love that the whole market seems to love Denver today. I'm not a big public fade guy, but the books love to come crashing down on players in this spot. I really like the Bears today.

[Love The Action]

Okay, BOL to all. I am locked.

Bills Over (like LTA)
Bills +7.5
Carolina +3
Titans +3.5
Washington +9
Chicago +3.5
Giants +3.5

I am equally against Mr Bow and Denver. I don't see them going past Chicago's defense just like LTA.

I am on 2u for Washington and Chicago, and 4u for Bills Over, 4u and Bills +7.5.

BOL everyone.

I won't be online until very late tonight. Hosting football today with a bunch of folks.

Good luck buddy. Glad you and wife are feeling better

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add another unit down the road. Good luck.

ACTION PARLAY (Not for Records win or lose)

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I don't release parlays as plays, but I also don't play parlays unless I am 100% convinced that they cash. I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

That's the card so far. Love these plays. Probably my favorite card of the year. Our big play over with Bills/Chargers just went to 49.5 at Pinny, giving us 2.5 points of value on that play and validating my model's projections. We beat the closer in Texans/Bengals by 1.5 points as that one closed at 37.5. I also got the better of the Falcons/Panthers over by 1 point as that one closed at 48. I still might play the Bears with the points and add a taste to the night game over. Good luck today.

[salvador_7764]

That's the card so far. Love these plays. Probably my favorite card of the year. Our big play over with Bills/Chargers just went to 49.5 at Pinny, giving us 2.5 points of value on that play and validating my model's projections. We beat the closer in Texans/Bengals by 1.5 points as that one closed at 37.5. I also got the better of the Falcons/Panthers over by 1 point as that one closed at 48. I still might play the Bears with the points and add a taste to the night game over. Good luck today.

Hello would you play it at 49.5 still yet.

[Love The Action]

Hello would you play it at 49.5 still yet.

There's not much value left in that number as I have it set at 50. However, with that said, I do like this game to fly over. Good luck in whatever you choose

[Love The Action]

Man, really sweating out these early games. The Texans/Bengals are at 19-13 with 5 minutes left and the Falcons/Panthers are at 24-23 with 9 minutes left. Man I hope we can catch some breaks for once...

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Bills/Chargers over (47) 4x (Locked)

I may add another unit to this play but I want to see where the line moves. I am getting 48 at my sharper book and 47 at my squarish book, so that's always a good sign. Pinny has this one juiced up on the over at 47.5 and I expect them to make a move to 48 soon. Despite all of the Bills injuries and overall problems, they remain a top 13 offense in all of the advanced efficiency stats for both the pass and the rush, while SD is top 10 in both (top 5 in many). In addition, both offenses have big play capabilities through the air and can score quickly. However, what makes this a play is the weaknesses of the two defenses. Both defenses are in the bottom 6 of the league and I don't see any improvements coming this weekend. Bth defenses have suffered injuries to some of their best players and neither defense has recovered. Just because SD held Jax to 14 points, doesn't mean their defense has turned the corner and is now stout again. Instead, that is more an indictment on the Jax offense than an endorsement of the SD defense. The strength of both offenses comes through the air, but both the Bills' Spiller and Chargers' Matthews are capable of gashing the other team for some big plays and big rushing days. Also interesting is that both teams are top 10 in offensive yards per play, but bottom 10 in defensive yards per play. All of the stats point to the over in this game. I have this one set at 50, which may seem a little high, but the advantage of offense over defense in this game is huge. Bottom line is that I expect a shootout and I'm going to take the value here on the over. I am rolling with the over for 4x. Good luck.

Play #2

Browns/Steelers under (40) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This might get to 40.5, but its not going to 41. I was waiting to get a better number than 38 and I am happy to get 40. Because I will be busy at work unable to monitor line movement, I am jumping on the 40 now rather than risk losing that number. I think we see a game dominated by rushing and defense. The Browns are a top 10 defensive team against the pass in epa, dvoa, epa/p, wpa and sr%. However, they struggle mightily against the run where they rank in the bottom five. I expect the steelers to find success with Mendenhall and have no need to resort to their dangerous pass attack in the 2h. Pittsburgh should take command of this game and limit the browns through the air. However, the browns may find some success on the ground if Hills is ready to go against a steelers defense susceptible to the run. While this wont lead to a ton of points, the browns should be able to get some first downs and keep the clock moving. I have this game set at 37 and would have played the under at 39. Once I was able to get 40, I had to jump on it despite the steam on the over. I think this one closes below 39 illustrating that this movement on the over was made more for a better number on the under than a true move on the over. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Texans/Bengals under (39) 2x (Locked)

Most of the market is at 38.5 or 38 right now, so when one my locals moved to 39, I jumped on it. I actually wanted to get 40, but I'm not sure this gets there and I didn't want to lose out on the 39. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. However, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's top 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Plus, the lack of Andre Johnson in this game, really cements this as a 2x worthy game. With Yates on the road for the first time as a starter, Kubiak will not force anything through the air without Johnson. This keeps the ball on the ground and the clock moving. It also plays into the hands of the Bengals defense who are much better against the run than the pass without Leon Hall at cornerback. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so we just need to cross our fingers and hope those don't happen. Otherwise, I see this one staying under the posted total and have this set at 36.5 giving us 2.5 points of value. I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Falcons/Panthers over (47) 2x (Locked)

I know that the Falcons have played to 9 straight unders because I've cashed quite a few of them. However, in this game, I think the offense will be too much. Carolina will be playing at home where they have been especially dangerous. In addition, Carolina will be playing without two of its best defensive line starters who were placed in IR this week. That opens Atlanta up for Turner to have a big game and there is no doubt Turner loves playing against the Panthers who he has rushed for over 750 yards against throughout his career. Carolina's defense is bottom 5 in the league against both rushing and passing and in DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. I think we see Atlanta run over Carolina quite easily and explode for some big plays through the play action pass with Matty Ice to Jones and White on the outside. However, this play really comes down to Carolina's offense and I think Cam and the boys play well this Sunday. Atlanta is a bit slow on defense and with Smith burning down the field opening up so much of the Panther playbook, I think the Panthers put at least 3 td's in the endzone. Atlanta's defense is respectable overall, coming in top 15 overall in advanced efficiency stats, but can struggle on the road at times with the pass. I think we see Carolnia get behind early which will force them to turn to the pass. This will open up the running lanes for Newton who should have some successful scrambling plays. In the first game this year, this matchup turned in 48 points. I expect a similar type game on Sunday. I have this one set at 50 and we're getting a field goal of value. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Giants/Cowboys over (50) 1x (Locked)

I was hoping to wait on this game and get a number around 49 or 48 as the early money trended under. However, this morning the number steamed all the way up to 50.5 and even 51 at some outlets, so I feel fortunate to get 50. I may add to this one down the road as long as I can get it under the key number of 51. You have two of the best passing offenses and quarterbacks in the league going against two weakened secondaries. Even though both defenses sport defensive lines that can be great at times, both defensive lines have been extremely inconsistent throughout this season. I think we see this become a shootout because both teams' offensive strengths are through the air where they rank top 10 in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both teams will struggle to stop the receivers they will face. I have this one set at 53 and we this is another game where we are getting 3 points or more of value. I am rolling with the over for 1x now and may add another unit down the road. Good luck.

Play #6

Bears ML (+160) 0.50x (Locked)

&

Parlay

Bears ML (+165)/Under (37)(-135) 0.50x to win 1.7x (Locked)

I love the Bears in this spot as a great public fade. I think the Bears win this game outright as Tebow has never faced such an aggressive and athletic defense all year. If the Bears win but the game stays under, this play will be considered a push. This is an official play now. Total risk of 1x for total payout possibility of 2.5x. My thoughts about this game are below from the earlier parlay writeup. Good luck.

I love the payout on this play and fully expect to cash this correlated parlay ticket. The Bears defense should put an end to this Tebow winning streak. Other than in the Jets game, Tebow has not faced such a dominate defense. However, I would argue this Bears defense is better than what NYJ has to offer. If you look at the advanced efficiency stats against both the pass and the run, the Bears come in at the top 5 of the leage in defensive rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the Broncos are not anywhere near as highly rated and are middle of the pack. However, during their winning streak, Von Miller has been dominate in leading them to victory. I would actually argue that the Broncos defense has had just as much if not more to do with their winning streak than Tebow. In this game, they will be facing a Bears offense that is without Cutler and Forte. With Hanie at QB they have not found much success because of his turnovers. However, this will be his third start and I expect improvement. I also expect a less aggressive game plan from Martz that is more conducive to Hanie's strengths. I do not think they will stick with those 7 step drops. Instead, look for quick passes, rollouts and other plays that will help accentuate Hanie's strengths. The Broncos are the favorite for one of the few times during Tebow's successful streak and the public is firmly behind them in this game. I think that gives us a great fade opportunity. I am going to monitor the line and I may still have other plays in this game, but for now I am locking in this action parlay. Good luck.

[GChild]

Nail bitter

[Love The Action]

If we lose this Texans/Bengals under on the last play of the game because of a BS pass interference penalty to go with a fumble by Dalton on his own 10 yard line earlier in the 1h, I am going to be very, very angry. I really need that game for a big day.

[Krazymojo]

Dam Houston

[r1kkie]

Crap TD in last seconds... ':/

[Love The Action]

Fukkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

[Love The Action]

Can't ever catch a fuking a break. The whole fuking g-damn season.

[Love The Action]

At least I pushed that Texans under, but I wanted anyone that tailed at 38.5 or less to cash. We got robbed on that one, that should have been an easy casher for us today. We got that Falcons over, so let's cash this big play over with the Bills/Chargers and get a Bears game that stays under for a huge day. Gambling gods owe us now

[GChild]

Never saw 39 damn

[Donnie Brasco]

Perhaps, we'll see. Denver will never lose I guess.

Hey, where the heck did you get the Bears/Denver under at 38.5? That one opened at 36.5 under the key number of 37 and got hit by under money immediately

That Niners under was appealing earlier in the week, but with Cardinals on revenge, Patrick Willis being out which really hurts the Niners defense, plus all the over steam has me leaning over and Cardinals plus the points now. That Willis injury really kills SF.

Like that Skins play, but like them a little more in a teaser. Good luck on your plays

Typo on my part, 36.5 is correct.

[Luv2Play2]

yep i got it at 38' also...fuc what a burn.. really does it ever goooo...my way

[upscope]

At least I pushed that Texans under, but I wanted anyone that tailed at 38.5 or less to cash. We got robbed on that one, that should have been an easy casher for us today. We got that Falcons over, so let's cash this big play over with the Bills/Chargers and get a Bears game that stays under for a huge day. Gambling gods owe us now

Nobody else had 39 on that game.

[Donnie Brasco]

Not saying den never loses, but not at mile high against an off as impotent as hugh hefner!

[lonelynoob]

the refs and the bad calls have been horrible this year .... you cant give a team a 1st and goal on the 6 with a call like that .... horrible ...

[Love The Action]

What the hell was the bullshit roughing the passer penalty on Briggs....he barely even touched Tebow and there was no helmet to helmet contact. Unreal....

[SlickRick1382]

Man, really sweating out these early games. The Texans/Bengals are at 19-13 with 5 minutes left and the Falcons/Panthers are at 24-23 with 9 minutes left. Man I hope we can catch some breaks for once...

Carolina / Atlanta was at worst a push but even with the two missed FG's I had faith we would get it. The Bengals / Texans push though hurt. Can't believe Bengals couldn't hold them.